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== Survey Methodology and Data Collection ==
== Survey Methodology and Data Collection ==
China's surveyed [[Unemployment|unemployment rate]] is derived from the Monthly [[Labour Force Survey|Labor Force Survey]], which employs a stratified, multi-stage sampling method with [[Probability-proportional-to-size sampling|probability proportional to size]] (PPS).<ref name=":5">{{Cite web |title=什么是调查失业率 - 国家统计局 |url=https://www.stats.gov.cn/zs/tjws/tjzb/202301/t20230101_1903672.html |access-date=2024-11-12 |website=www.stats.gov.cn |trans-quote=What is the survey unemployment rate?}}</ref>This method involves randomly selecting [[neighborhood]] (or [[village]]) committees, followed by systematic sampling of households within these areas. Each month, approximately 340,000 households are surveyed, covering all prefecture-level and county-level regions in mainland [[China]]. <ref name=":5" />At a 90% confidence level, the relative error of the urban surveyed unemployment rate is within 2%.<ref name=":5" />For example, if the estimated urban unemployment rate is 5%, the actual rate is expected to lie between 4.9% and 5.1%. <ref name=":5" />During specific periods each month, enumerators collect employment and unemployment data from selected households using electronic devices (PADs), reporting directly to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) via an online system. The NBS processes the data to estimate both national and provincial urban unemployment rates.<ref name=":5" />
China's surveyed [[Unemployment|unemployment rate]] is derived from the Monthly [[Labour Force Survey|Labor Force Survey]], which employs a stratified, multi-stage sampling method with [[Probability-proportional-to-size sampling|probability proportional to size]] (PPS).<ref name=":5">{{Cite web |title=什么是调查失业率 - 国家统计局 |url=https://www.stats.gov.cn/zs/tjws/tjzb/202301/t20230101_1903672.html |access-date=2024-11-12 |website=www.stats.gov.cn |trans-quote=What is the survey unemployment rate?}}</ref>This method involves randomly selecting [[neighborhood]] (or [[village]]) committees, followed by systematic sampling of households within these areas. Each month, approximately 340,000 households are surveyed, covering all prefecture-level and county-level regions in mainland [[China]]. <ref name=":5" />At a 90% confidence level, the relative error of the urban surveyed unemployment rate is within 2%.<ref name=":5" />For example, if the estimated urban unemployment rate is 5%, the actual rate is expected to lie between 4.9% and 5.1%. <ref name=":5" />During specific periods each month, enumerators collect employment and unemployment data from selected households using electronic devices (PADs), reporting directly to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) via an online system. The NBS processes the data to estimate both national and provincial urban unemployment rates.<ref name=":5" />

== Data Coverage ==
According to the [[National Bureau of Statistics of China]] (NBS Website), the unemployment data is compiled based on the Monthly Labor Force Survey, which covers the entire mainland China. The survey does not include data from [[Hong Kong]], [[Macao]], or Taiwan.<ref name=":4" />


== Rural labor migration and urban unemployment ==
== Rural labor migration and urban unemployment ==

Revision as of 01:12, 12 November 2024

Unemployment has been a serious social issue in China in recent years, regarding both an increase in quantity and an unequal impact on different social regions. The influence of foreign investment in China has greatly increased since the Open Door Policy was implemented in the early 1980s. The relationship between foreign-funded enterprises and urban labor market development is dual. Opponents influence the shape of labor-market regulation; however, foreign-funded enterprises have also become a major source of demand for urban and rural areas migrant workers. Demographic factors also affect unemployment in China, such as age and sex. The position of women in the labor market has been deteriorating, with a decline in labor force participation rate, rising unemployment, increased work intensity and a widening gender pay gap.[1]

Definition and Calculation Method

Classification of Population Aged 16 and Above

The surveyed unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the unemployed population relative to the sum of the employed and unemployed populations, calculated through a sample survey estimation.[2] The formula is as follows: Surveyed Unemployment Rate = (Number of Unemployed Persons) / (Number of Unemployed Persons + Number of Employed Persons) × 100%.[2]

The unemployment rate formula in China is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force, which includes only the employed and unemployed populations, excluding the non-labor force population (such as retirees or students not seeking employment).[2]Thus, the surveyed unemployment rate indicates the proportion of unemployed individuals within the labor force, not within the total population aged 16 and above. [2]For instance, a 5.0% urban unemployment rate reflects that 5 out of every 100 individuals in the labor force are unemployed, rather than 5 out of every 100 individuals aged 16 and over.[2]

The definitions of employment and unemployment align with the standards set by the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians of the International Labour Organization (ILO). [3]"Employed persons" include individuals aged 16 and above who worked at least one hour for pay or profit during the reference week. [3]This category also includes those temporarily absent from work due to reasons such as training, vacation, or illness, provided they intend to return within one month.[3]"Unemployed persons" refer to individuals aged 16 and above who were not employed during the reference week but had actively sought work within the previous three months and were available to work within two weeks, including those awaiting job opportunities scheduled to start within three months.[3]The urban unemployment rate represents the ratio of unemployed persons to the combined total of employed and unemployed persons within urban areas.[3]

Survey Methodology and Data Collection

China's surveyed unemployment rate is derived from the Monthly Labor Force Survey, which employs a stratified, multi-stage sampling method with probability proportional to size (PPS).[4]This method involves randomly selecting neighborhood (or village) committees, followed by systematic sampling of households within these areas. Each month, approximately 340,000 households are surveyed, covering all prefecture-level and county-level regions in mainland China. [4]At a 90% confidence level, the relative error of the urban surveyed unemployment rate is within 2%.[4]For example, if the estimated urban unemployment rate is 5%, the actual rate is expected to lie between 4.9% and 5.1%. [4]During specific periods each month, enumerators collect employment and unemployment data from selected households using electronic devices (PADs), reporting directly to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) via an online system. The NBS processes the data to estimate both national and provincial urban unemployment rates.[4]

Data Coverage

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS Website), the unemployment data is compiled based on the Monthly Labor Force Survey, which covers the entire mainland China. The survey does not include data from Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan.[3]

Rural labor migration and urban unemployment

Manufacturing employment and trade deficit with China, 1965-2015
See also: Migration in China

The unemployment rates of every country throughout the world are strongly correlated with gross domestic product and rural and urban labor.[citation needed] According to a 2017 economic study, official government statistics show that unemployment in China is unusually low relative to gross domestic product and suspiciously stable.[5] China's labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, with an average unemployment rate of 3.7 per cent between 1988 and 1995, but this rose sharply after numerous lay-offs between 1995 and 2002, reaching an average unemployment rate of 9.5 per cent between 2002 and 2009.[5] These changes had the greatest impact on non-technical workers from rural area, particularly less educated women and younger workers.[5] Lastly, estimates of unemployment and labor force participation rates were provided for all urban residents, including migrants without a registered permanent residence.[5] As of 2018, the total number of registered migrant workers stands at around 288.4 million.[6][7]

In 2002, economists Fan Zhai and Zhi Wang simulated China's economy following its accession to the World Trade Organization. The study concluded that there was a need for coordination between China's rural-urban migration policy, labor market reform, and trade liberalization measures. This action would not only prevent a deterioration in urban unemployment, but also increase the flexibility of the labor market to create more employment opportunities for rural unskilled labor workers from the agricultural sector.[8]

Impact of the global financial crisis on unemployment

2007-2009 World Financial Crisis
See also: Poverty in China

Many migrant workers returned to their homes following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The GFC resulted in reduced consumer demand in developed countries while export orders for Chinese goods declined. During the financial crisis, prices fell sharply, businesses and consumers were unable to repay their debts, and financial institutions ran short of liquidity. Migrant workers, who were already socially and legally marginalized from the precarious nature of their employment, experienced increased poverty. At the beginning of 2009, the number of unemployed immigrants exceeded 20 million, accounting for about 40% of the total population who lost their jobs.[9] In the months following August 2008, China's export orders declined sharply, especially in coast cities. Most businesses within the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone closed. This resulted in poor job opportunities for college graduates, which further decreased labor force participation rates. However, the government provided assistance to the unemployed and was responsible for stabilizing the unemployment situation of urban registered permanent residents to increase employment opportunities.[10]

State capacity and governance issues to address unemployment

Despite the high level of economic growth, the restructuring of China's economy has resulted in an increase in urban unemployment over the past decade, resulting in civil unrest in many cities. Since 1986, and especially since 1997, the central government's policy on unemployment has focused on helping cities and towns register the unemployed and “laid-off workers” through unemployment insurance, reemployment service centers and employment services such as training and employment assistance. These efforts are aimed at controlling layoffs and job creation in state-owned enterprises by stimulating economic growth.[11]

At the same time, the Chinese government has promoted employment and industrial structure through boosting the national economy, adjusting the economic structure, advancing the reform of the political and economic system, balancing urban and rural economic development, and continuously increasing the social security system.[citation needed] The government has also used monetary policy, taxation and fiscal policy to reduce unemployment.[citation needed] The goal of such policy was to incentivize self-employment, the creation of new businesses, and medium/small enterprises (SMEs) hiring more workers.[citation needed] The government provided small loans and interest subsidies to support SME development for the sake of expanding employment.[citation needed]

Lastly, the government actively cultivates and develops the labor market. From the late 1990s onward, the Chinese government has attempted to build a scientific, standardized, and modernized labor market, and constructed a public employment service system.[citation needed] “All levels of [the] public employment service would provide free job placement and employment guidance to the urban unemployed and rural migrant workers. Providing a “one-stop” service ranging from registration of laid-off and unemployed population looking for jobs, job placement, social insurance coverage, and vocational skill training”.[12]

Youth unemployment

The youth unemployment rate in China is worth noting due to young workers representing a significant proportion of China's workforce. During 2004 to 2009,[13] it was easy for a low-skilled young workers to find jobs; however, due to economic stagnation, young workers today may face increasing difficulties in seeking or maintaining jobs. Jobs accessible to young workers tend to be precarious, with low wages and lacking social security benefits such as unemployment welfare and insurance. At the same time, many graduates cannot compete for jobs with top university graduates, they are not willing to take low-quality, low-paid jobs. Business professors Terence Tse and Mark Esposito (2014) consider some of these young people to be NEETs. Tse and Esposito suggest that some parents encourage their children remain unemployed and find better jobs, rather than accept the low-quality jobs that the parents already have.[14] As anti-hustle trends gained momentum in China in 2023, Gen-Z youths began opting for lower paying occupations as valid, less stressful career paths even though they were once considered low-quality.[15]

Youth unemployment can also be attributed to structural unemployment, which occurs when there is a mismatch between the skills that jobs require and the skills that workers possess. According to research by Zhao and Huang (2010), there were 750,000 college graduates who could not find a job in 2003 after graduating in 1999, which increased to 1.2 million in 2005, and nearly 2 million in 2009 (approximately 32% of the total 6.1 million graduates that year). The real numbers might be higher than official data due to the minimum standard of a 70% employment rate and possibly fraudulent reporting by the Ministry of Education. Job search success for college graduates often depends on the reputation of the university. For example, students who graduate from prestigious universities in China can often easily find high salary jobs, in contrast to graduates from less prestigious universities. This may be reflective of academic disparity, where academic conditions such as faculty and environment of top universities are better than those of unknown universities. The difficulty and competitiveness of university admission also exacerbate the problem by limiting education for high school graduates.[16]

Since 2018, China's youth unemployment rate has increased significantly, peaking at 20.8 percent in May 2022.[17][18] Youth unemployment has stayed elevated since early 2022 as Covid disruptions and a property slump added to already existing structural problems in the labor market.[19] On August 15, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) announced the cessation of publishing the youth unemployment rate. In July of 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the youth unemployment rate was as at 21.3%.[20]

Numerous sources[21][22] considered this decision to be tantamount to a deliberate coverup of information related to the youth unemployment data point, and a troubling sign for the state of the overall Chinese economy, with The New York Times reporting in August of 2023, "Beijing stopped releasing youth unemployment figures in its latest attempt to play down negative trends as growth stalls, and global concerns grow...",[22] and that, "The decision may be temporary, but it will only make it harder for investors to know what’s happening in the country — and that may be the point."[23] The NBS started releasing youth unemployment numbers in January 2024, and announced the new number excluded students.[24]

References

  1. ^ "Unemployment in China: Economy, Human Resources and Labour Markets, 1st Edition (Paperback) - Routledge". Routledge.com. Retrieved 2019-05-13.
  2. ^ a b c d e "什么是调查失业率 - 国家统计局". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-11-12. [What is the survey unemployment rate - National Bureau of Statistics]
  3. ^ a b c d e f "Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board". dsbb.imf.org. Retrieved 2024-11-12.
  4. ^ a b c d e "什么是调查失业率 - 国家统计局". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-11-12. [What is the survey unemployment rate?]
  5. ^ a b c d Feng, Shuaizhang; Hu, Yingyao; Moffitt, Robert (May 2017). "Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China". Journal of Comparative Economics. 45 (2): 304–324 – via Elsevier Science Direct.
  6. ^ cycles, This text provides general information Statista assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct Due to varying update; Text, Statistics Can Display More up-to-Date Data Than Referenced in the. "Topic: Employment in China". Statista. Retrieved 2020-12-02.
  7. ^ "China Labor Market - Changes and Trends". HROne. 2020-07-06. Retrieved 2020-12-02.
  8. ^ Zhai, Fan; Wang, Zhi (2002-11-01). "WTO Accession, Rural Labour Migration and Urban Unemployment in China". Urban Studies. 39 (12): 2199–2217. doi:10.1080/0042098022000033827. ISSN 0042-0980. S2CID 154828709.
  9. ^ Chan, Kam Wing (2010). "The Global Financial Crisis and Migrant Workers in China: 'There is No Future as a Labourer; Returning to the Village has No Meaning'". International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 34 (3): 659–677. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2427.2010.00987.x. ISSN 1468-2427. S2CID 142794021.
  10. ^ Cai & Chan, Fang & Kam Wing (2009). "The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment In China" (PDF).
  11. ^ Duckett, Jane; Hussain, Athar (2008-04-24). "Tackling unemployment in China: state capacity and governance issues" (PDF). The Pacific Review. 21 (2): 211–229. doi:10.1080/09512740801990279. ISSN 0951-2748. S2CID 154876317.
  12. ^ DI, Yan (2019). "China's Employment Policies and Strategies" (PDF).
  13. ^ Fang, Tony; Lin, Carl (2015-11-27). "Minimum wages and employment in China". IZA Journal of Labor Policy. 4 (1): 22. doi:10.1186/s40173-015-0050-9. hdl:10.1186/s40173-015-0050-9. ISSN 2193-9004.
  14. ^ Esposito, Terence Tse and Mark (2014-02-20). "Youth unemployment in China: A crisis in the making". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved 2019-05-13.
  15. ^ Tamagno, Beatrice (2023-07-31). "Not-So-Quiet Quitting: 'Resignation Parties' Celebrate the End of Hustling — RADII". RADII.
  16. ^ Zhao, Litao; Huang, Yanjie (28 April 2010). "Unemployment Problem Of China's Youth" (PDF).
  17. ^ "Why has youth unemployment risen so much in China?". Goldman Sachs. Retrieved 2023-06-27.
  18. ^ Toh, Michelle (2023-06-15). "China cuts rates again as youth unemployment hits new record high". CNN. Retrieved 2023-06-27.
  19. ^ Tan, Clement (2023-05-29). "China's youth unemployment hits a record high, deepening its economic scars". CNBC. Retrieved 2023-07-20.
  20. ^ "中国官方暂停发布青年分年龄段失业率数据". Lianhe Zaobao (in Chinese (China)). 2023-08-15.
  21. ^ Xie, Lingling Wei and Stella Yifan (2023-08-20). "China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next?". WSJ. Retrieved 2023-08-29.
  22. ^ a b Sorkin, Andrew Ross; Mattu, Ravi; Warner, Bernhard; Kessler, Sarah; Hirsch, Lauren; Livni, Ephrat (2023-08-15). "What China Isn't Telling the World About Its Economy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-08-29.
  23. ^ Sorkin, Andrew Ross; Mattu, Ravi; Warner, Bernhard; Kessler, Sarah; Hirsch, Lauren; Livni, Ephrat (2023-08-15). "What China Isn't Telling the World About Its Economy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-08-29.
  24. ^ "China Brings Back Youth Jobless Rate, With Rosier Number". Bloomberg News. 17 January 2024. Retrieved 26 January 2024.
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