Talk:Climate change

Global Dimming in lede

The following ends the first paragraph of the lede:

"Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of man-made aerosols, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases."

Any views on it?

Personally I don't think it should be there as it confuses the intro. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 12:57, 18 March 2011 (UTC)

Global dimming is organized into "External forcing" in the article, but so is Solar variation. If the objective of the sentence were to acknowledge the main negative forcings and feedbacks, then blackbody radiation has certainly been omitted. My view is that while it's important, it's not important in context of the lead unless there's broader picture to go with it. I concur with Ian. --CaC 155.99.230.160 (talk) 17:06, 18 March 2011 (UTC)

So we're actually global cooling, with the effects offset by global warming? Fukenstein (talk) 06:23, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

Hi Fukenstein, I wouldn't put it that way. Soot etc in the atmosphere has a cooling effect, increased greenhouse gases have a warming effect. The warming effect is much greater than the cooling. I'd say that the warming would be even more pronounced if not for the effect of 'global dimming'. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 13:27, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

It's not primarily "soot", but aerosols in general. Soot, i.e. black carbon, increases the effects of global warming, at least on ice and snow. Sulfate aerosols provide most of the cooling. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:36, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

I stand corrected.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 15:22, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

You're welcome. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:39, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

Reqest for evidence against global warming page:

http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%2005-03%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf

If you read this published journal article you will realise how biased this article is. I have tried to raise some similar points about he content here, but have had my post deleted several times. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 122.148.169.38 (talk) 01:42, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

Let's get your facts straight before we start. The paper is from a conference ("The AusIMM New Leaders’ Conference") not journal, and it's from his self-published website. --CaC 155.99.230.219 (talk) 04:07, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

So it still seems to me, based on the discussion, that particulates are causing global cooling...however, this cooling is being offset by global warming. I think this message needs to be made clearer in the lede. Fukenstein (talk) 05:23, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

Well I took a look at the above document, I got as far as "Whether dangerous human-caused climate change is a fact, possibly a fact or a fabrication depends on who you choose to believe." ie the first sentence. Anyone who believes that is lost. Considering what interpretations best fit the information you have is the way to proceed. I have time to engage with anyone on this topic but not to read polemics. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:55, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

@Fukenstein Soot and aerosols already has an entire section, and there's not really a good place to mention it in the lede and nor can it be easily summarized in a form appropriate to the lede. Sailsbystars (talk) 12:21, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

@ Fukenstien It is wrong to suggest particulates are causing global cooling, since the global temperatures are rising. Suggesting global cooling is being offset by global warming would be akin to saying that a person is floating on the surface of pool, yet that their flotation is offset by the fact that they are sinking.137.111.13.200 (talk) 00:48, 24 March 2011 (UTC)

"Changes in the global climate are the result of a complex combination of forcings and feedbacks. Increased greenhouse gases cause warming, warming has led to loss of ice albedo, melting permafrost is releasing further greenhouse gases, and dark soot particles on white ice also lead to a loss in reflectivity. On the other hand, particulates and aerosols in the atmosphere can reduce insolation and can also seed cloud formation that further reduces solar energy input. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, and this is itself an effective greenhouse gas. At the same time, the warmer atmosphere radiates more heat away into space. The overall effect of these, and all the other processes in play, in the last century or more has been the observed increase in global surface temperatures."

How about that? We are meant to be summarising the article, and that is my attempt at summarising sections 2 and 3. Picking out only aerosols for summary in the lede is not right, but of course summarising more makes the summary longer. --Nigelj (talk) 19:15, 24 March 2011 (UTC)

As far as my understanding goes it seems an excellent and accurate summary of the main processes involved. Only problem is it's additional to an already large lede. We could loose some existing bits.

• "Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation" to "Global warming is the continuing/ongoing increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century."
• "As a result of contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the oceans have become more acidic, a result that is predicted to continue." could go, true but not rel here.

There are other bits that can be lost or shortened....

--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:01, 24 March 2011 (UTC)

Readded. Per WP:LEDE. -Atmoz (talk) 22:09, 23 April 2011 (UTC)

Hot, darker, and crowded? Good add Atmoz. 99.190.81.210 (talk) 22:01, 24 April 2011 (UTC)

Atmoz, firstly, please proceed (as I have done) by attempting to establish a consensus first rather than making unilateral edits. I have re-read WP:LEDE. It certainly says that "The emphasis given to material in the lead should roughly reflect its importance to the topic, according to reliable, published sources". While it is arguable that 'global dimming' should be mentioned in the lede it certainly should not conclude the first paragraph where you have restored it. There are several climate forcings and while the effect of aerosols is the largest negative forcing, and it does partly offset the positive forcing of greenhouse gases, it is not essential to the most basic understanding of Global warming and therefore should not be in the first paragraph of the lede. WP:LEDE also has: "The first paragraph should define the topic with a neutral point of view, but without being overly specific." and "It is even more important here than for the rest of the article that the text be accessible.". To someone unfamiliar with this topic the presents of the sentence about global dimming (at least where it is) is likely to confuse, so should be removed. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:09, 24 April 2011 (UTC)

I'm somewhat sympathetic to mentioning global dimming in the lead but the material would need to be rewritten. For example, one of the things they tell us in those "communicating with the public" things is that when people see the word "aerosol" they immediately think "spray can." The Spirit of Neutrality and Truth (talk) 22:27, 24 April 2011 (UTC)

"particulates"? -Atmoz (talk) 16:46, 25 April 2011 (UTC)

Problems with "social systems" section

I'm not happy with the current revision of impacts on social systems

[...] In some areas the effects on agriculture, industry and health could be mixed, or even beneficial in certain respects.[...]

This statement is too vague. It should be stated which regions will face positive and negative impacts, as well as how these impacts are expected to vary according to the rate and magnitude of future climate change.

[...] Reuters have reported that the US military is spending millions of dollars a year on nuclear submarine patrols and torpedo tests in the Arctic. This is with a view to global warming leading to Arctic ice disappearing during the summers from the mid-2030s onwards, which in turn will mean that they expect vast new oil and gas reserves to become accessible and commercial shipping to make increased use of shorter passages via the Bering Strait. They report that the US is "jockeying for position" with Russia, China, and other countries to benefit from such new business opportunities in the area.[...]

I don't think this topic is important enough to be included in this article. I suggest that it be moved into the climate change, industry and society sub-article. The reference I'm using for the relative importance of topics is the IPCC report, which is accepted by a large number of countries as providing an objective scientific assessment of climate change. Additionally, I think judging importance should also be based on the UNFCCC, which states the key importance of climate change impacts on economic development, ecosystems, and food production.

My suggested revision is as follows:

There is some evidence of regional climate change having already affected human activities, including agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future impacts will likely vary according the rate and magnitude of future climate change (1). Impacts will also likely vary according to region. For example, global warming of 1-3 deg C (above 1990s temperatures) could benefit crop yields in some mid- and high-latitude areas, although yields could also decrease in low-latitudes (2, 3). Economic studies suggest that this level of warming could result in net market-sector benefits in many high-latitude areas and net losses in many low-latitude areas (2). Above 3 deg C, global food production could decline (2, 3). Several studies suggest that a warming of 4 deg C could result in net market-sector losses of around 0-5% world GDP (4, 5)

References

• (1) IPCC 2001, Question 3
• (2) Schneider et al 2007
• (3) "
• (4) Stern Review, Chapter 6, pp147-148
• (5) Yohe et al 2007

This revision is more specific that the existing revision, and concentrates on two of the key criteria (economic development and food production) stated in UNFCCC Article 2. Enescot (talk) 20:08, 11 April 2011 (UTC)

Hi Enescot. I agree with your proposed changes. Except 'low-latitudes' does not have a hyphen, while 'low-latitude areas' can; but I'm sure you knew that anyway :-) Good work. --Nigelj (talk) 21:28, 11 April 2011 (UTC)

Thanks. Enescot (talk) 23:05, 15 April 2011 (UTC)

Clearly a worthwhile review, but is this based on the 2001 TAR? Surely the 2007 AR4 report is currently relevant. There's also the question of increasing extreme weather events rather than even overall warming. The impacts of drought and flooding were projected in AR4 and have recently become more of a significant issue. . . dave souza, talk 22:13, 11 April 2011 (UTC)

Well spotted, Dave. I'm clearly not ready for my "expert reviewers'" badge. Or my PhD. --Nigelj (talk) 22:02, 12 April 2011 (UTC)

I've used bits of the TAR synthesis report because I find it better for brief summaries than ar4. I think the TAR's conclusions are probably still valid, but I see that it could be viewed as being dated. To reaffirm the tar's conclusions I've altered my suggested revision and put in supporting references to ar4 (see my reply to IanOfNorwich). I agree that the link between global warming and extreme events is important. Hopefully my new revision addresses this issue. Enescot (talk) 23:05, 15 April 2011 (UTC)

Hi Enescot, Your suggested revision is more specific which is good. It looses "Low-lying coastal systems are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge." which is notable and reasonably specific. "Human health will be at increased risk in populations with limited capacity to adapt to climate change." (which is less specific) is also lost. "Increased drought in semi-arid low-latitudes and mid-latitudes are predicted even for 1-2 degree temperature rises." should, in my view, be included. All sourced from (2) IPCC AR4.

--IanOfNorwich (talk) 12:29, 12 April 2011 (UTC)

Hello. Thanks for your comments. My revision does loose quite a lot of important info which is probably worth retaining. I think the sentences you've mentioned on health and coastal systems could be made more specific and generalized. I agree that the info you mention on droughts is worth including but it doesn't specifically refer to social impacts. Perhaps it could go in the "natural systems" section instead? My new revision:

Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than gradual climate change (wilbanks). Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands (schneider reg), adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas (schneider rea), and small but discernable effects on human health (schneider tab). Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts (ipcc 2007). Small island states and low-lying coastal areas are at particular risk of severe social and economic effects due to sea level rise and storm surges (ipcc 2001, schneider reg, nicholls). Adverse effects on human health (e.g., increased malnutrition) are expected to outweigh benefits (e.g., reduced cold deaths), particularly in developing countries (confalonieri).

Future warming of around 3 deg C (by 2100, relative to 1990-2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition (schneider reg). A similar regional pattern of gains and losses is expected for economic (market-sector) effects (schneider tab). Warming above 3 deg C could result crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production (schneider ag). Most economic studies show world GDP losses for higher levels of warming (yohe, stern).

References

• confalonieri [1]
• ipcc 2001 [2]. TAR 2001 Question 3 spm
• ipcc 2007 [3]
• nicholls [4]
• schneider ag [5]
• schneider rea [6]
• schneider reg [7]
• schneider tab [8]
• stern [9]. Chapter 6, pp147-148
• wilbanks [10]
• yohe [11]. Enescot (talk) 23:05, 15 April 2011 (UTC)

Seems excellent to me. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:45, 17 April 2011 (UTC)

Thanks very much. Enescot (talk) 03:00, 19 April 2011 (UTC)

Are you going to go ahead and make the edit? It seems all round an improvement on the previous version. Re-reading the original there is only one bit I'd now be bothered about loosing... While, as you pointed out to start with, the whole bit based on the Reuters article was too big, but perhaps a sentence noting the expectation of receding attic ice opening the north-west passage by 2030 would be worth including, reffed to the Reuters article. It is much more tangible that the rest of it. But in any case I'd suggest you go ahead and change it to your version, it's been a few days and anyone who wants to make alterations afterwards can do so - it is a wiki after all :-) --IanOfNorwich (talk) 12:28, 19 April 2011 (UTC)

I've had my edits on this article reverted before, so I'm quite cautious in making any changes. I'll leave it for a few more days to see if there are any other comments. In respect of the arctic sea ice content, I'm rather uncertain. Including it would, in my view, lend undue weight to impacts in polar regions. My reference for this is the IPCC synthesis report summary for policymakers [12]. There are a large range of regional social impacts, and it's difficult for me to see how this issue deserves greater attention than other regional social effects. I suggest that the IPCC's "especially affected" regions summary is used instead: "It is likely that some regions will be particularly affected by future climate change, including the Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian and African megadeltas." This could replace this sentence from my earlier suggested revision: "Small island states and low-lying coastal areas are at particular risk of severe social and economic effects due to sea level rise and storm surges (ipcc 2001, schneider reg, nicholls)."

The IPCC SPM does mention declining arctic sea ice as part of the evidence for global warming [13]. Perhaps the "natural systems" section could be revised to elaborate on this point?:

Evidence for global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Rising sea levels and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with warming.[17] On average, mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined in both hemispheres, there has been a rapid reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent, disintegration of floating ice shelves, and increased melt rates of the Greenland, West Antarctic and East Antarctic ice sheets.

This is based on the IPCC SPM and a recent UNEP publication (Chapter 2, p.14) [14]. Enescot (talk) 14:04, 22 April 2011 (UTC)

I'll add another voice in favor of the edit described above. Rick Norwood (talk) 19:18, 22 April 2011 (UTC)

Thanks very much. Enescot (talk) 21:26, 1 May 2011 (UTC)

"It is likely that some regions will be particularly affected by future climate change, including the Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian and African megadeltas." is woolly (affected how?), whereas "Small island states and low-lying coastal areas are at particular risk of severe social and economic effects due to sea level rise and storm surges (ipcc 2001, schneider reg, nicholls)." is much more specific and tangible. I see your point re arctic sea-lanes, compared to, for example, "By 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people [in Africa] are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change."(IPCC synthesis report summary for policymakers) it may be a small concern, but as with many of these broad effects, "increased water stress" is vague - it's hard to draw any firm conclusions from it and it is very hard to verify! The opening of arctic sea lanes is tangible and (at least ultimately) verifiable. I'd be interested to read some more views on that one. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:41, 24 April 2011 (UTC)

I agree that my suggested sentence is vague in respect of specific climate change impacts, however, more detailed information is provided in the regional effects of global warming sub-article. I don't agree with you about including information on the opening of Arctic sea lanes. I think that the other issues raised in the IPCC report deserve greater attention. Climate change impacts in the Arctic are not restricted to the opening of sea lanes [15], and I do not agree that tangibility and verifiability are sufficient reasons to justify the inclusion of information on Arctic sea lanes. I also think that if Arctic climate impacts are to be specifically mentioned, other especially affected regions should get a mention as well. The chapters of the IPCC reports on Africa [16] and Asian megadeltas [17][18] contain information that could be included in the article. Omitting a summary of information on impacts in Africa and on Asian megadeltas, but mentioning the opening of Arctic sea lanes is, in my opinion, biased. Information on small islands could be included as well, perhaps as per the edit I suggested earlier. I don't believe that mentioning the opening of Arctic sea lanes provides an adequate summary of impacts in Arctic regions.

I was uncertain as to how this disagreement could be resolved in a new revision, but I decided to go ahead and change the article into a compromise state. I've dropped the following sentences from the revision I suggested earlier:

Small island states and low-lying coastal areas are at particular risk of severe social and economic effects due to sea level rise and storm surges (ipcc 2001, schneider reg, nicholls). Adverse effects on human health (e.g., increased malnutrition) are expected to outweigh benefits (e.g., reduced cold deaths), particularly in developing countries (confalonieri).

I've done this in order to accommodate space for information on Arctic sea lanes. Since I do not agree that this information is sufficiently important to be included in this article, I've added a template to the section. I've also dropped this sentence from the old revision:

Overall it is expected that any benefits will be outweighed by negative effects.[94]

The cited source (AR4) does not appear to support the statement. Indeed, the assessment of aggregate impacts in AR4 [19][20] is more circumspect than in the TAR (question 3). In my opinion, any aggregate assessment of climate impacts must explain how that aggregate assessment has been made, as well as providing information on the limitations of that assessment (e.g., see [21]). Enescot (talk) 21:26, 1 May 2011 (UTC)

I wasn't arguing for keeping the whole paragraph on the Arctic! I've removed the bits that I'm in favor of removing on the basis that, unless I've misunderstood, Enescot was keen to remove all of that paragraph and no one else has spoken in it's favor. It does leave it geographically unbalanced (which can be fixed two ways!).--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:16, 2 May 2011 (UTC)

Actually I've moved it to Natural Systems, lost the mention of sea lanes and found a better ref. BTW, Enescot, your change to the article is a big improvement.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:42, 2 May 2011 (UTC)

Thanks. I did originally want the paragraph to be deleted, but I think I misunderstood why you wanted to keep it. I assumed that you wanted to keep the stuff about the military, rather than just the physical effect of the ice melting. Enescot (talk) 00:36, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

Claims of Catastrophic Warming Are Overwhelmingly Contradicted By Real-World Data

For years the crowd that ran this article have said that nothing but peer reviewed articles could be cited (peer clearly meaning people very well known to those editing here) well now the real peer reviewed literature is increasingly hostile to their nice cosy peer-"consensus" and I quote:

Dr. Carlin’s new study, A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change, is published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. It finds that fossil fuel use has little impact on atmospheric CO2 levels. Moreover, the claim that atmospheric CO2 has a strong positive feedback effect on temperature is contradicted on several grounds, ranging from low atmospheric sensitivity to volcanic eruptions, to the lack of ocean heating and the absence of a predicted tropical “hot spot.” [22]

How will they respond:

• It's just a blog?
• It's not a credible journal?
• Who is this person - he's not a climatologist?
• It's all covered in the article: climate science, the bits we try to ensure no one ever reads
• Thank you very much for your contribution, having read the article we will certainly have to amend the article to take account of it.

212.139.61.166 (talk) 19:50, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

I think you're a bit confused. Wikipedia is neutral and does not have any sinister motives. BurtAlert (talk) 20:39, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

"How will they respond". Who is "they"? 155.98.108.112 (talk) 21:07, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

Yes, that is about three-fifths right. It's a blog (WP does not cite blogs), it's not a credible journal ("Big Sky Business" not a journal at all, and hardly credible on any scientific matter), Carlin who? the comedian? The rest is just soapboxing; sorry, no cigar. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:27, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

The blog post is referring to this in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. It's an obscure young journal, but at first glance still seems to be a peer reviewed journal (not that publishing this paper does much to support that notion). Dragons flight (talk) 22:35, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

This is exciting news. "Dr. Alan Carlin, now retired, was a career environmental economist at EPA when CEI (Competitive Enterprise Institute) broke the story of his negative report on the agency’s proposal to regulate greenhouse gases in June, 2009." Now the thrilling tale has been taken up by the usual denialist blogosphere. An entertaining paper, overturning 150 years of climate science by introducing "my definition of valid science" which trounces those dastardly "CAGW supporters" and supports Linzen's convenient estimate of climate sensitivity. We can look forward to a settled future, with Carlin being given a Nobel prize for his amazing discoveries and redefinition of science. . . dave souza, talk 22:57, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

(edit conflict) I am not of the people who edits here on a regular basis. In fact I can not recall ever editing this article. The journal is indeed "an obscure young journal" and it may be peer reviewed, but is one of a set of such open access journal that are not yet fully accepted and they are really looking for contributions. I have had a look at the paper. The author appears to be an economist. He spends quite a bit of time arguing what is essentially the philosophy of science on what constitutes science. That make me suspicious as it is certainly not normal. I think the author is trying to do a fair job in understanding the science that he reports, but I am not convinced he is understanding the papers he reports in a proper way. It would have been much better if he, as a non-scientist, had sought a proper dialogue with experts in the appropriate field to access whether the publications he has noticed really are raising issues that challenge the accepted view of climate change. As it stands it reads as if he just picking up ideas from the scientific literature that suit his purpose without fully understanding all of them. I see no reason to take any notice of this one paper. If scientists look at the papers he looks at, and similarly argues that they throw some of the arguments on global warming in doubt, then we might have to look at those more carefully. These would, for example, include the studies on the isotope ratios and the studies of sea temperature in the last decade. --Bduke (Discussion) 23:08, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

I also skimmed through the paper and I second Bduke's analysis. The paper doesn't really have anything original or novel to add to the debate. It reads much more like an editorial with references than like an original research paper. Sailsbystars (talk) 23:53, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

"Claims of Catastrophic Warming Are Overwhelmingly Contradicted By Real-World Data" looks like a straw man statement anyway. Count Iblis (talk) 15:03, 7 May 2011 (UTC)

CAGW?! Yet more letters in the denialist acronym? I got bored during the great GW vs CC debate (there's CC, but it's not GW/there's GW but it's not CC etc); I lost interest with AGW (there's GW but it's not A); now there's CAGW - I guess 'there's AGW but it's not C enough for anyone to change anything that might affect my paycheck/lifestyle/commute/new Hummer'. When it gets to 15 letters or more, wake me up. --Nigelj (talk) 21:33, 9 May 2011 (UTC)

Better response?

I have been wondering if we need a better response for these "I have found a flea/factoid/report that overturns 10,000 elephants worth scientific work". It would be easy enough to add something to the FAQ. Of course, these anonymous posters are not known to check the FAQ, but perhaps we could get some kind of snazzy image template (like  Looks like a duck to me) that catches attention and redirects to a specific FAQ question. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:06, 9 May 2011 (UTC)

I agree. It's a common meme that needs it's own FAQ. I dunno about the duck. FAQs are good. They say: Sorry you missed it, but we've already heard that so many times here that we wrote a standard answer to it ages ago. --Nigelj (talk) 21:33, 9 May 2011 (UTC)

You could uncollapse the FAQ to make it more visible. Right now the code is {{FAQ|quickedit=no}}. Change it to {{FAQ|quickedit=no|collapsed=no}} to make it uncollapsed. On a different note, I don't think the FAQ is effective, because anons could easily disagree with it as out-of-date/inaccurate/ect. Perhaps the solution is to create a message holding a proposal to a higher standard. For example, require anons to "provide the original journal article" when a "study" is cited, which should cut-down on blogs and news sources. 174.52.224.148 (talk) 00:55, 10 May 2011 (UTC)

  Hmm, goes beyond what I suggested, but I like it. Though would need some working out. If anyone is interested, perhaps this should go into its own section. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:36, 11 May 2011 (UTC)

It is the goal of Wikipedia to provide information to people who want information, not to change the minds of people who have already made up their mind. As long as we keep this article honest, we've done the best we can. Global warming "skeptics" are not going to change their minds no matter what evidence anyone provides. Remember the Bill Cosby record "What train?" Rick Norwood (talk) 11:47, 10 May 2011 (UTC)

Rick, I think you misunderstood my intent. I am not proposing anything to change anyone's mind, I was suggesting, first, that if this particular "meme" is adequately addressed in the FAQ then we wouldn't have to keep readdressing it here, on the talk page. And second, with that in place, then for all the yahoos that breeze right past the FAQ (visible, or not) we can just give them a templated response. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:36, 11 May 2011 (UTC)

The goal of Wikipedia is to make a good encyclopedia rather than change people's views, but often changing their views can help in that goal. If it is to remain an "encyclopedia that anyone can edit" it must be done by consensus. We can't be expected to read every polemic that someone throws at us but we do need to engage with "deniers", and preferably in a respectful way as that is more likely to engender the kind behavior we would like to see from them. The FAQ is great, btw, (better than the article perhaps!) and un-hiding it seems a good plan to me.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 23:12, 11 May 2011 (UTC)

  I am general agreement with you here, and don't object to unhiding the FAQ. But some of these folks wont' read it no matter how many times we make them run over it. That's where I think we need an attention-getting tag that points them to a specific answer in the FAQ. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:52, 14 May 2011 (UTC)

Re:JJ, I've uncollapsed the FAQ. Feel free to revert if anyone disagrees. Now about the message. I recommend keeping the message in the standard talk-page box, {{tmbox}}. There are a variety of settings to make it "attention getting". If you need help setting it up, just tell me what you want. I don't mind, it's pretty easy to me.

I agree with Rick, but on a different note. Trying to change people's minds is fruitless. They've made up their mind, telling them they're wrong won't change that. I know this is a long read, but a friend recommended a paper to me last week. I think we can develop a different approach from this paper. --Tony 174.52.224.148 (talk) 02:05, 15 May 2011 (UTC)

Media interest

WP:SOAPboxing "not relevant to improving the article" (archived per WP:TALK
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
For a while I've been watching the google newscount for "global warming" and "peak oil", and whilst peak oil has been rising from around 600 to around 4000 during the time I've been watching, global warming has been going down from around 20,000 (2007) down to 5000. Likewise, public interest in the subject has similarly been draining away. And today, I noticed that in the UK the newsmedia count for peak oil now exceeds that of global warming, and at the present rate I expect that to happen worldwide sometime in the next month or so. So, why isn't this plummeting public and media interest being reflected in the number of articles devoted to this subject? There are currently 65 articles under the category "global warming", (not counting those under "climate change") whilst there are only 43 under "peak oil". And to be frank, this article is long winded, difficult to read and even the climatologists are now asking to use the kind of plain language that has been vigorously rejected here.[23]. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 212.139.52.162 (talk • contribs) 18:58, 5 May 2011 (UTC) Not sure what you think this article should be about, my understanding is it's about the science of global warming, not transient media fads. Detailed improvements will of course be welcome. The article on plain language is interesting, I'm sure deniers will have a tizzy about not emphasising uncertainty as much as they'd like. . . dave souza, talk 22:04, 5 May 2011 (UTC) The article should be about "global warming". By its very name this is the popular, political issue regarding the political implications of the claims of "Anthropogenic climate change" by climate "scientists". If it were called "the science of global warming", then sure it would be about the science, but no! It is named after the political campaign. Therefore it should largely focus on the history, the rise in support, the key events like Kyoto and Climategate, and the subsequent fall in public interest and widespread collapse in support for further legislation.212.139.52.162 (talk) 01:00, 6 May 2011 (UTC) Not tonight dear. I have a headache. The Spirit of Neutrality and Truth (talk) 01:03, 6 May 2011 (UTC) First you say Global Warming is a political issue, then you claim that it should largely focus on the history... Your story seems to be changing. 155.99.230.100 (talk) 07:43, 6 May 2011 (UTC) Eh? Anyway, see WP:NOTNEWS. . . dave souza, talk 07:53, 6 May 2011 (UTC) Now that it's all over anyway, can I let you lot into a little secret! We sceptics never needed to change this article! No Why should we? As I said above - no doubt as always in a way that was bound to ensure you wouldn't do what was suggested - the article is long boring, doesn't cover any of the interesting bits, is full of technical jargon and multiple and obvious mistakes and biases totally undermining its credibility like e.g. not even addressing the known pause in temperature. We couldn't have written a better propaganda piece for the sceptics. There is a saying in Judo that you work with the opponent to encourage them to move toward being thrown to the ground. Likewise, we only had to speak the truth - that the article was entirely biased, should include material from a wider range of source and not just the self-deluding climate "scientists" - and you lot were so wound up in your self-righteous belief in your myopic view that you just continued to make the article more and more biased on the evidence and totally failed to cover the subject most people understand as "global warming". To be frank almost every sceptic I know seems to have become a sceptic either directly or indirectly from reading or editing this article. What you failed to realise, is that healthy debate can only strengthen this article and make it better & more believable. Instead you lot created a one-party state propaganda article which no one except yourselves could believe. Thanks. Now, I assume from the answers, that you still don't want the help of us sceptics (now the majority), well I was beginning to worry that I might have to put my time and effort where my mouth was and actually do something to improve this article. So, thanks again, no need to waste my time here! 212.139.52.162 (talk) 08:53, 6 May 2011 (UTC) Please read WP:NOTAFORUM and take this discussion to a blog where it belongs. Khukri 08:58, 6 May 2011 (UTC) Somebody will have to put this to bed. It is an opinion piece. Say Goodnight, Gracie. Tasty monster (=TS ) 00:42, 7 May 2011 (UTC)

Um

Isn't this just a theory? 174.124.42.87 (talk) 16:36, 10 May 2011 (UTC)

See the FAQ, specifically Q8. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 16:49, 10 May 2011 (UTC)

Q9 caught my eye, while it's right to note that the "atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂", should we not also be clear that it sorta converts to CO₂ thus continuing to have an effect? ^{[caution: I am not an expert]} . . dave souza, talk 17:29, 10 May 2011 (UTC)

Merging of "UNFCCC" and "Politics" sections

I've had an idea of merging these two sections. I think the existing revision of the UNFCCC section is okay, but I'm not satisfied with the politics section (revision below as of 10 May):

Developed and developing countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of economic costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total emissions of a country divided by its population.[123] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[124] This is used to make the argument that the real problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries.[123]

On the other hand, Banuri et al. point out that total carbon emissions,[123] carrying capacity, efficient energy use and civil and political rights are very important issues. Land is not the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil fuel use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate point.[citation needed] Efficient energy use supporting technological change might[vague] help reduce excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.[citation needed] The use of fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption and excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict with civil and political rights. People[who?] in developed countries argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing fair rationing programs in different countries because there is no global system of checks and balances or civil liberties.

The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed countries.[114] Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to decide not to ratify the treaty,[125] [126][127] although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[128] Debate continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and the Cancún climate summit.

The first and second paragraphs do not specify exactly who has made these various arguments. The third paragraph overlaps with the earlier section on the UNFCCC. My suggestion is to remove the "UNFCCC" section and to replace the existing "Politics" section entirely. My suggested revision for the politics section is as follows:

Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[111] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[112] As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.

The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen (US NRC). During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations (Dessai, p4)) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions (Grubb, pp.144-145). This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs (Liverman, p.290). This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention (Liverman, p.290), which entered into legal effect in 2005 (UNFCCC).

In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012 (UNFCCC). US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy" (Dessai, p5).

At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[117] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010 (UNEP, p9)) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[118] A preliminary assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" chance of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above the pre-industrial level (UNEP, pp10-11). To meet the 2 deg C objective, studies generally indicate the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter (UNEP, p14).

The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 deg C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.[119]

References:

• Dessai (pdf)
• Grubb (pdf)
• Liverman (pdf)
• UNEP (pdf)
• UNFCCC [24]
• US NRC [25]

Admittedly, this is a rather long revision. I think it is an improvement on the existing revision since political points are clearly attributed to particular parties. I also felt that it was important to mention the "emissions gap" in respect of the 2 deg C target. Enescot (talk) 15:50, 11 May 2011 (UTC)

I'm in favor, again. I tagged parts of the politics section some time ago but haven't got round to doing much positive with it. The old version is a blight. I can't even offer any criticism of your proposed revision, this time; I must be tired.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:43, 11 May 2011 (UTC)

Thanks for your support. Enescot (talk) 19:31, 13 May 2011 (UTC)