Talk:Climate change/Archive 66

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Record High Greenhouse Gases to Linger for Decades "Concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases blamed for global warming reached record levels in 2010 and will linger in the atmosphere for decades,even if the world stops emissions output today, the U.N.'s weather agency said on Monday." Scientific American November 21, 2011 by Tom Miles, excerpt ...

Carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, rose by 2.3 parts per million to 389 ppm in 2010 from the previous year, higher than the 1990s average (1.5 ppm) and the past decade (2.0 ppm), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. If the world is to limit global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius, scientists say emissions volumes must not have more than 450 ppm of carbon dioxide.

97.87.29.188 (talk) 23:26, 21 November 2011 (UTC)

So you want us to quote an article(?) in Scientific American (which, despite its name, is not a scientific journal, but a popular magazine) where it quotes a news release from the WMO. Sorry, but even if this news item was significant enough to affect the article it would be best to cite the WMO directly. This is not a useful resource. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) 23:04, 22 November 2011 (UTC)

Couldn't you just say "This is a quote from WMO, we should quote that directly." instead of sounding so cynical. One of the reasons WikiPedia has a bad rep. --206.180.38.20 (talk) 14:19, 28 November 2011 (UTC)

Nope, couldn't do that, because it is unlikely that we should quote the WMO on this at all. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) 01:40, 29 November 2011 (UTC)

This appears to be it (389 ppm CO2) ... http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_934_en.html and here are more references http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/1121/Greenhouse-gas-concentrations-reach-record-levels-will-linger-for-decades-new-report-finds and http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/11/21/record-high-greenhouse-gases-linger-for-decades 99.181.134.134 (talk) 06:54, 29 November 2011 (UTC)

Replaced comment ... wikipedia processing issue ... see Special:Contributions/Sailsbystars and the View History of this Talk page ... http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Talk:Global_warming&diff=463173490&oldid=463172953 and previous edit http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Talk:Global_warming&diff=463060853&oldid=463035216 by Special:Contributions/99.181.134.134. 99.181.131.196 (talk) 01:45, 30 November 2011 (UTC)

(od) What was deleted was a 184.155.18.45 edit, not as Sailsbystars had in their/wp Edit Summary. 99.181.131.196 (talk) 01:54, 30 November 2011 (UTC)

There seems to be a misunderstanding here. Somebody read a magazine article related to global warming and wonders why that specific fact isn't mentioned in the article on global warming. Well, the fact as stated isn't exactly new, it's only extraordinary news to people who don't know about global warming. And this article tells you about it. So after reading it you don't need to read a magazine article spitting out some factoid, you know about global warming. --TS 20:10, 30 November 2011 (UTC)

Thank you for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) link ... http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_934_en.html 97.87.29.188 (talk) 01:26, 2 December 2011 (UTC)

"Dangerous" climate change

I think there are some major problems in one section of the introduction:

(rest of intro)

Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The primary international effort to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change ("mitigation") is coordinated by the 194-nation UNFCCC.[14] The Kyoto Protocol is their only legally binding emissions agreement and only limits emissions through the year 2012.[15] Afghanistan and the USA are the only nations in the UNFCCC that have not ratified the original protocol,[16] and as of October 2011 several others have refused to extend the emissions limits beyond 2012.[17] Nonetheless, in the 2010 Cancun Agreements, member nations agreed that urgent action is needed to limit global warming to no more than 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels.[18][B] Current scientific evidence, however, suggests that 2°C is the "threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change",[19] that this much warming is possible during the lifetimes of people living today,[20] and that steep reductions in global emissions must be made by 2020 in order to have a 2-out-of-3 chance of avoiding global warming in excess of 2°C.[21]

I'll outline the problems below:

The primary international effort to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change ("mitigation") is coordinated by the 194-nation UNFCCC.[14]

I think this statement incorrect - there are 195 Parties to the FCCC - 194 states plus the EU (27 nation states) making a total of 221 states (UNFCCC, 2011a).

Current scientific evidence, however, suggests that 2°C is the "threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change"

There are no objective definitions of "dangerous/extremely dangerous" climate change or for "extremely dangerous" climate change, see IPCC (2001) and UNFCCC#Interpreting Article 2. In my view, it is important that readers of the article be made aware that any definition of "dangerous" (or "extremely dangerous") climate change requires value judgements, and that such judgements are subjective. The citation provided to support the definitions of "dangerous" and "extremely dangerous" climate change represent the personal views of one author.

Suggested revision

My suggested revision is as follows:

(rest of introduction as before)

Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (UNFCCC, 2011). Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce their emissions (Gupta et al, 2007; IEA, 2009:173-184; UNFCCC, 2005:10; 2011b:9) and to assist them in adapting to global warming (Adger et al, 2007; World Bank, 2010:262-263; UNFCCC, 2011d). Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required, and that future global warming should be limited to below 2 degrees Celsius relative to the pre-industrial level (UNFCCC, 2011e). Analyses by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2011) and International Energy Agency (IEA, 2011) suggest that current efforts to reduce emissions may be inadequately stringent to meet the 2 degrees Celsius target.

I've removed mention of the terms "climate change mitigation" and "geoengineering." I think that these definitions can be left to later on in the article. I think that it is more important to concentrate on what actions are being taken. As far as I'm aware, geoengineering hasn't as yet been implemented on a significant scale (unlike mitigation policies such as the CDM or adaptation policies in some countries), and is less well-understood than mitigation or adaptation. Also, the UNFCCC (2011d) emphasizes mitigation and adaptation. I've therefore left geoengineering out of my suggested revision.

I think that the existing revision focusses too heavily on the Kyoto Protocol. The present political consensus appears to be based more on "bottom-up" measures rather than the "top-down" approach of Kyoto. I also feel that the existing revision lacks objectivity, and appears to implicitly support Kyoto-like agreements, e.g., "Kyoto Protocol is their only (emphasis added) legally binding emissions agreement...".

References

• Adger, W.N., S. Agrawala, M.M.Q. Mirza, C. Conde, K. O’Brien, J. Pulhin, R. Pulwarty, B. Smit and K. Takahashi, 2007: Executive summary. In: Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
• Gupta, S.; et al. (2007). "13.2 Climate change and other related policies". In B. Metz; et al. (eds.). Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. {{cite book}}: Explicit use of et al. in: |author= (help); Explicit use of et al. in: |editor= (help)
• International Energy Agency (IEA) (2009). World Energy Outlook 2009 (PDF). Paris, France: IEA. ISBN 978-92-64-06130-9.
• International Energy Agency (IEA) (2011), "Executive Summary (English)", World Energy Outlook 2011 (PDF), Paris, France: IEA, p. 2
• IPCC (2001). "Question 1". In Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (ed.). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (November 2011), "Executive Summary", Bridging the Emissions Gap: A UNEP Synthesis Report (PDF), Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP, p. 8, ISBN 978-92-807-3229-0 UNEP Stock Number: DEW/1470/NA
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2005), Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. (PDF), Geneva (Switzerland): United Nations Office at Geneva
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011a), Status of Ratification of the Convention, UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC. Most countries in the world are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C target. There are currently (as of November 25, 2011) 195 Parties (194 states and 1 regional economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC.
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011b). "Compilation and synthesis of fifth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the secretariat" (PDF). Geneva (Switzerland): United Nations Office at Geneva.
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011c), UNFCCC : Cancun Agreements : Mitigation, UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011e), Conference of the Parties - Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4 (PDF), UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC, p. 3 "(...) deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels"
• World Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington DC, USA: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.

Enescot (talk) 14:47, 28 November 2011 (UTC)

Temperature of the Earth

Search for Average Temperature of the Earth leads here, but I can't find it in the article. It talks in detail about the temperature anomalies from year to year but never says what value those anomalies are relative to. If the Earth is warming, what is its temperature now? What is the recent (holocene) temperature history of the Earth?

Alexselkirk1704 (talk) 00:03, 18 November 2011 (UTC)

See Earth's temperature record; is that where you want to go? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:48, 18 November 2011 (UTC)

That is a redirect to temperature record. In response to the original query, I have created a new redirect, Average temperature of the Earth, to the same article. --TS 20:28, 19 November 2011 (UTC)

I was wondering if a map exists with Co2 emissions per square mile. Every map I see is either per capita or over all emissions. I just wanted to see where the most pollution is biased on land area. A map with this included would be awesome on this article. I have seen this info on states but not on a global level. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 138.162.0.41 (talk) 17:19, 6 December 2011 (UTC)

Hi, this isn't a bad suggestion. I think I could obtain the data needed without too much difficulty (I made the current per-capita graphs you refer to). I'll put it on my list of things to do when I have time, but don't hold your breath on it. Sailsbystars (talk) 17:33, 6 December 2011 (UTC)

How to control global warming

Hi friends i am adding How to control Global Warming on the article page so suggestions and references are welcome. Let me know what else i can do. Ashpreet92 (talk) 23:57, 2 December 2011 (UTC)

See Climate change mitigation. I've taken the liberty of creating a redirect How to control global warming to that article. Thank you. --TS 00:09, 3 December 2011 (UTC)

Renewable Energy Sources

Renewable energy sources are capable of continually replenishing themselves. These include energy from water, wind, the sun, geothermal sources, and biomass sources such as energy crops. Many nations count on coal, oil, and natural gas to supply most of their energy needs; but relying on fossil fuels is problematic. Fossil fuels are a limited resource; eventually, the world will run out. Fossil fuels also cause air, water, and soil pollution; in addition, produce greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Renewable energy resources, such as wind, solar, and hydropower, offer clean alternatives to fossil fuels. They produce little or no pollution or greenhouse gases, and they will never run out.

The ocean provides several forms of renewable energy, and each one is driven by different forces. Energy from ocean waves and tides, from the heat stored in sea water, can be harnessed to generate electricity, and ocean thermal energy can also be converted to electricity. Using current technologies, most ocean energy is not cost-effective compared to other renewable energy sources, but the ocean remains an important potential energy source for the future. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.9.244.177 (talk) 14:19, 4 December 2011 (UTC)

Wow

Gee, take it easy, I was only adding a link to the see also section :P That usually never triggers any reaction like this. If you really want me to explain here how the link would improve the article, I would say that it's not an unrelated subject, and it shows that the scientific community has been wrong before which means that it can as well be wrong again. The article about global cooling has a link to this article in the see also section, so I don't see why this article could not have a link to that article in the same section. —Kri (talk) 15:35, 4 December 2011 (UTC)

and it shows that the scientific community has been wrong before - if you can say that, you haven't read the GC article. Adding see-also's without reading the article isn't good. How about you read it before commenting any more? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:10, 4 December 2011 (UTC)

See also: [1] NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:07, 4 December 2011 (UTC)

Whatever the history, cooling is obviously related to warming. The Stephen Schneider/UCS/Club of Rome clique came up with both AGW and global cooling. Kauffner (talk) 01:54, 5 December 2011 (UTC)

It is ironic that people who get all their information about science from non-scientific, "conservative" (that is, pro-oil industry) news sources love to point out that "the scientific community has been wrong before". If they reject sources of information that "have been wrong before", they would logically reject all "conservative" news sources. Yes, scientists have been wrong, but they have been right more often that any other source of information. Except mathematicians. Rick Norwood (talk) 15:01, 5 December 2011 (UTC)

"Conservative" seems so abused nowadays. In a different world-line I can see the conservatives saying: hmm, burning up all this coal and oil as fast as we can just might muck up the climate so bad there would be radical environmental, economic, and societal consequences, so let's think about this a bit before charging ahead. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:32, 7 December 2011 (UTC)

Hey, why do we need coal or oil when Solyndra and the Chinese are making all the solar cells we need? They cost only $2 a watt to produce, and now you can get 'em cheap.[2] Kauffner (talk) 06:42, 7 December 2011 (UTC)

Odd wiki behavior on this article... url shown in footnote rollover bar

This is a question for a wiki mechanic. When my mouse rolls over one of our citation footnote numbers in the text, I see a bar at the bottom of the screen that reports the full url. The weird thing is that for citation #1, the url in the bar ends with "note-0". For citation #126, the url in the rollover bar says "note=125". Is this normal wiki behavior that I just never noticed before? Either way.....why aren't they in synch? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:05, 6 December 2011 (UTC)

Computers and computer scientists start counting at zero. Thank Dennis Ritchie for that. It's normal. The rollover URL is a feature of your browser (Chrome does it, and IIRC, recent Firefoxes also do it). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:17, 6 December 2011 (UTC)

Delete section on "global warming controversy' (but include in see also) due to redundancy?

Here is a snip from the current index. Something in this list does not belong:

7 Views on global warming

   7.1 Global warming controversy
   7.2 Politics
   7.3 Public opinion
   7.4 Other views

There are three sections devoted to describing various perspectives, and one that is an umbrella for various arguments debated in public media. IMO, the latter is nothing more than the sum of the other three, as they butt heads in public media. As such, the section "global warming controversy" strikes me as redundant and should be deleted and replaced with simply a SEE ALSO at the end of the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:11, 6 December 2011 (UTC)

Quotation resource

... Climate change (global warming) is, in the words of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, “the greatest example of market failure we have ever seen.” ...

from http://www.thenation.com/article/164497/capitalism-vs-climate?page=0,4 by Naomi Klein. This article appeared in the November 28, 2011 print edition of The Nation.

141.218.36.41 (talk) 22:20, 6 December 2011 (UTC)

Section on geoengineering

I've readded the citations to the section on geoengineering. An editor noted that I needed to "dig a little deeper than the executive summary" to justify these statements. The IPCC reports are the most widely accepted statement of scientific opinion on climate change, and I therefore do not see the need for me to "justify" any of its conclusions. Enescot (talk) 14:51, 20 November 2011 (UTC)

For sure the IPCC reports are "the most widely accepted ...", solidly reliable sources, and need not be justified. But you missed my point. The section at Global warming#Geoengineering consists of four sentences, of which the first three were cited to the Executive Summary of ch. 11 of AR4 WG3. The only instance where that even mentions "engineering" (geo or otherwise) is in the sub-section "Unconventional options", which I quote here in its entirety:

The aim of geo-engineering options is to remove CO2 directly from the air, for example through ocean fertilization, or to block sunlight. However, little is known about effectiveness, costs or potential side-effects of the options. Blocking sunlight does not affect the expected escalation in atmospheric CO2 levels, but could reduce or eliminate the associated warming. Disconnecting CO2 concentration and global temperature in this way could induce other effects, such as the further acidification of the oceans (medium agreement, limited evidence).

Regarding the three sentences in question:

Another policy response is geoengineering of the climate. Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or to reflect incoming sunlight. Little is known about the effectiveness, costs or potential side effects of geoengineering options.

I submit that only the last ("Little is known...") is supported by the citation. The first two are not supported here; in describing what geo-engineering is, or encompasses, they might be better supported by quoting from the glossary. Or, as I commented in the text, all three might be supported further in the chapter, in which case the citation(s) should be to the proper location.

In summary, the problem is not that IPCC report is a bad source, but that the section cited does not support the text. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) 19:42, 20 November 2011 (UTC)

Enescot reply

For the help of other editors, this is the old revision which I changed:

(hidden comment) Serious problem here. I have removed the citations of the first three sentences because each cited the same section (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch11s11-es.html), which mentioned geo-engineering only once, and incidentally at that, without supporting the material used. If someone wants this section retained, they should dig deeper than the Executive Summary."

(old revision) Another policy response is geoengineering of the climate. Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO
₂ from the atmosphere or to reflect incoming sunlight. Little is known about the effectiveness, costs or potential side effects of geoengineering options. As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, deployment would likely require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory framework, as well as significant further scientific research.

Suggested revision

I've changed my my mind and agree with your criticisms. I've written a new revision which hopefully addresses your concerns:

"A body of the scientific literature has developed which considers alternative geoengineering techniques for climate change mitigation (Barker et al, 2007). Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (published in 2007) assessed geoengineering techniques that appeared "apparently promising" (Barker et al, 2007). Techniques for ocean fertilization were assessed, which could be a strategy for removing CO
₂ from the atmosphere (Barker et al, 2007). Also assessed were techniques for reducing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth's atmospheric system (Barker et al, 2007). The overall conclusion of the IPCC Fourth Assessment was that geoengineering options remained "largely speculative and unproven, (...) with the risk of unknown side-effects" (IPCC, 2007). It was judged that reliable cost estimates for geoengineering options had not been published (IPCC, 2007)."

(as previous revision) As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, deployment would likely require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory framework, as well as significant further scientific research.

References

Note that the citation style I've used below is purely for use on this talk page. If other editors are satisfied with my suggested revision, I'll change my citations to the citation style used in the rest of the global warming article.

• Barker, T., I. Bashmakov, A. Alharthi, M. Amann, L. Cifuentes, J. Drexhage, M. Duan, O. Edenhofer, B. Flannery, M. Grubb, M. Hoogwijk, F. I. Ibitoye, C. J. Jepma, W.A. Pizer, K. Yamaji, 2007: 11.2.2 Ocean fertilization and other geo-engineering options . In (chapter): Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• IPCC, 2007: C. Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030) - paragraph 17. In (section): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Enescot (talk) 17:59, 24 November 2011 (UTC)

I think your references are quite unwieldy (may I offer revisions?), but the reformulated text looks very good. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) 22:54, 25 November 2011 (UTC)

Thanks very much. I'd be happy to discuss any ideas you have for improved references. Enescot (talk) 14:28, 28 November 2011 (UTC)

Okay, any day now. If nothing else blows up. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:33, 2 December 2011 (UTC)

So is the text (above) pretty much what you want to add? I presume that the short cites you have put into parentheses should go into footnotes. I see that have cited Barker four times, all to the same section. Is that correct? Or should different and/or more specific citation be made? ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:25, 4 December 2011 (UTC)

Yes, the text above is what I want to add. I've made the edit using this text, and used the different citations that I've referred-to here. I've reformatted these citations to match the way citations are given in other parts of the article. As per our discussions on this and other talk pages, I've kept the "Summary for Policymakers" bit for one of the citations. Enescot (talk) 16:29, 7 December 2011 (UTC)

The Barker citation looks good (was missing the chapter, but I fixed that). It did look distinctly odd having four sentences in a row citing the same section, so I did some copyediting to combine and remove the redundancies. I hope that is acceptable. I also added mention of the CO2 sequestration; I suspect that could be wikilinked. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:08, 8 December 2011 (UTC)

Thanks for making those changes. Enescot (talk) 14:19, 11 December 2011 (UTC)

resource, not sure what wp article most useful

Global Warming and Political Intimidation: How Politicians Cracked Down on Scientists As the Earth Heated Up by Raymond S. Bradley ISBN-13: 978-1558498693 Publisher: Univ. of Massachusetts Press (July 31, 2011)

The Inquisition of Climate Science by James Lawrence Powell ISBN-13: 978-0231157186 Publisher: Columbia University Press (August 30, 2011)

• http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/336295/title/BOOK_REVIEW_Global_Warming_and_Political_Intimidation_by_Raymond_S._Bradley%2C_and_The_Inquisition_of_Climate_Science_by_James_Lawrence_Powell_ BOOK REVIEW: Global Warming and Political Intimidation and The Inquisition of Climate Science, December 3rd, 2011; Vol.180 #12 (p. 28) in Science News Review by Janet Raloff

99.190.87.173 (talk) 20:10, 8 December 2011 (UTC)

IPCC citations - documentation

As part of the IPCC citation work I have created a Talk:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/citation subpage that documents the canonical format (and other subpages with the AR specific details). I have also opened a discussion about this at Talk:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I am also adjusting the FAQ (consensus?? :). ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:15, 17 December 2011 (UTC)

Global warming concern overestimated

Strong consensus that article is not notable. Discussion collapsed per WP:NOTAFORUM; we need not waste any more time on it.

I came across this Wikipedia global warming page, but did not see reference made to this article from the peer-reviewed journal Science: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2011/11/22/science.1203513.abstract?sid=d47377ad-6df7-4f10-a1d7-ac371826abcf The article is titled "Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum," and the results "imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought." This is a key finding that should be added. Samel Jankins (talk) 00:56, 28 December 2011 (UTC) Have you read more than the abstract to give context to that statement? --OuroborosCobra (talk) 01:06, 28 December 2011 (UTC) And just what are your qualifications to determine what is a key finding? Could you evaluate for us the difference between this latest estimated probability and the prior estimate, and the significance of that difference? ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 01:37, 28 December 2011 (UTC) One critique ("The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" about that paper from skeptical sci. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:40, 28 December 2011 (UTC) That is a non-reliable blog you noted, not a peer reviewed journal such as Science. Samel Jankins (talk) 17:19, 28 December 2011 (UTC) Hi Samel Jankins, you've still not answered any of the questions. . dave souza, talk 17:42, 28 December 2011 (UTC) Scientists are constantly checking and revising their estimates. There's always "might be lower", "might be higher", etc. You can't let yourself fall into the trap of confirmation bias by simply picking and choosing the latest "there's a minute possibility than one of the variables in the simulation might not have been taken out to enough decimal places, but we're not sure." as "global warming is dead!" and ignoring the mountain of evidence and the just plain common sense to the contrary. the fact is this has always happened and the general consensus, taking ALL of these pieces of information into consideration, and not just a select few, has remained and does remain the same as it always been, and the same as everyone would know it to be where it not for the vigorous disinformation campaigns by wealthy morons and all the echo-heads blindly contributing. from what i can tell this article is good science. but none of what it says is all that significant or notable. so someone might have slightly overestimated the mean expected frequency of extreme weather events in certain scenarios. big deal. it happens all the time. welcome to the world of science, where people actually check their facts. Kevin Baastalk 18:09, 28 December 2011 (UTC) A difference of 0.7K is not what I would call insignificant in the grand scheme. However, you point about confirmation bias is a good one. Perhaps the IPCC should take up that advice as well. From a scientific "fact" basis I would love for one of these simulations to actually be able to accurately predict the past. I am never satisfied with my simulation modeling until my model can accurately explain the current baseline observations. I have yet to see a climate model that can accurately reproduce the past environment without a ton of modifications to fix little quirks in the model, so what makes you think they can predict the future with any certainty? Arzel (talk) 20:07, 28 December 2011 (UTC) Science. ArtifexMayhem (talk) 20:10, 28 December 2011 (UTC) Define "accurately".[3] Btw. the IPCC has no models. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:12, 28 December 2011 (UTC) Hmmm... doesn't look like Arzel has seen very many climate simulations. Kevin Baastalk 20:54, 28 December 2011 (UTC) To be on the safe side, we should include this reference in the article.Samel Jankins (talk) 22:01, 28 December 2011 (UTC) It is not "safer" to put in an improperly interpreted reference. --OuroborosCobra (talk) 22:47, 28 December 2011 (UTC) See the FAQ Q21. We don't respond to every individual paper as soon as its out, but only if it has gained some traction. This is an encyclopedia, not a news tracking site. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:57, 28 December 2011 (UTC) But "Science" is not a news magazine, it is a peer reviewed science journal. And the findings are notable. Samel Jankins (talk) 00:07, 29 December 2011 (UTC) According to whom? --OuroborosCobra (talk) 00:09, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Yes, Science is a WP:RS. But (as I previously asked) who is Samel Jankins to tell us that these findings are notable? And what is it about Q21 that you do not understand? ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:18, 29 December 2011 (UTC) "Littering the highway" is when someone takes 5 secs to say something and expects other editors take substantive action or we spend pages debating. I say PHOOEY. I have collapsed this thread twice. An allegedly new editor has reverted twice. If anyone besides me thinks this debate thread lacks specific suggestions for improving the article - where specific means something like proposed text - please consider re-collapsing this thread. To get a substantive response, in my view, advocates of the Schmittner paper ought to do the grunt work of articulating a some specific article improvement, to which we can then reply in substance. "I think we should mention this paper" is not, IMO, substantive or specific. If you learn enough to write something, and take the time to write something, then we can talk about it. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:09, 29 December 2011 (UTC) There are many articles from 2011. Should we start deleting those to be in compliance with Q21? That is a FAQ anyway, not a generally agreed upon policy. The methodology used in the paper compels its inclusion in this article. Samel Jankins (talk) 05:50, 29 December 2011 (UTC) What methodology is that? You have yet to answer whether you have even read beyond the abstract. Removing all 2011 references would not comply with FAQ 21 as it does not speak to how recent an article was published, but giving proper weight, NPOV, notability, etc. That you would read this conversation and respond to FAQ 21 by suggesting we should remove all 2011 references suggests, at least to me, that you did not read FAQ 21. Can you answer these two basic questions: have you read beyond the Science article abstract, and have you read FAQ 21? Furthermore, suggestions of making other sweeping edits because your journal article is not included is skirting close to violating WP:POINT. Do you have any concrete suggestion or justification for the inclusion of your journal article beyond nebulous claims of notability that you cannot attribute to anyone but yourself and nebulous claims of compelling methodology that you do not clarify or describe? --OuroborosCobra (talk) 07:40, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Personal opinion, but I don't see anywhere in this article where the Schmittner et al. paper really fits in. However, I would definitely include it within a longer discussion of climate sensitivity. The paleoclimate evidence at the last glacial maximum is one of the few good independent constraints we have on Earth's climate sensitivity, and for that reason it is very useful. The fact that Schmittner have a relatively warm LGM, and by extension a relatively low climate sensitivity, is interesting. However, it is unlikely to be the last word on the LGM, and even if it were, people could continue to argue about how accurately LGM values of climate sensitivity can be used to measure sensitivity under current conditions. By itself, this research doesn't settle the question of what is Earth's climate sensitivity, but their result is definitely a data point that should be included within any serious discussion of that question. Dragons flight (talk) 08:12, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Has anyone actually read the skeptical science critique I linked to at the start of this thread? A sample of the various points include this comment by one of the authors in an interview about the paper.... after listing an apparent contradiction and several caveats in their results, he said (bold supplied) Until the above questions are resolved, it’s premature to conclude that we have disproven high climate sensitivities, just because our statistical analysis assigns them low probabilities. You can follow the link in the skepsci post to the source for that remark. Next, besides reporting that they could not confirm the max values of some other estimates, they also eliminated the lower end of the range. The last point I'll raise here is that even if the actual amount of warming from a doubling of CO2 (including all feedbacks) turns out to equal the upper values in the paper's estimate, that is hardly happy news because warming all by itself really isn't the problem. The problem is the effects of that warming. This paper suggests that the effects of warming are dramatically greater than we think. So if we include anything about this paper, we also have to say this paper suggests a much greater response to any warming than we thought. At the moment, I don't have a source to offer other than SkepSci, but the logic is obvious so it shouldn't be hard to find one. To quote the SkepSci post, If Schmittner et al. are right about climate sensitivity and LGM temperature change, then if we continue with business-as-usual GHG emissions, we will match the amount of warming between glacial and interglacial periods within roughly the next century. Some of the differences between glacial and interglacial periods include 120 meter sea level rise, and a completely different global landscape - very dramatic climate changes. If we include this paper, we have to include the results, not the denialist cherrypicked and spun talking points. Do the advocates of this paper still want to include it? Or would you rather we take the authors advice, quoted above, and wait for their work to be developed further? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:56, 29 December 2011 (UTC) It's unclear why you have such an obsession with "denialists"...you seem to be the only one bringing this up. Also, we cannot reference the blog you noted since this is a non-reliable source. The peer reviewed Science article should be included in the section on sensitivity.Samel Jankins (talk) 16:36, 29 December 2011 (UTC) See FAQ Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? . . dave souza, talk 17:31, 29 December 2011 (UTC) The Skep Sci post is useful in evaluating this paper as a source and I never said anything otherwise. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:58, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Note also that one of the co-authors says in an interview, "we haven’t disproven the IPCC or high climate sensitivities. At least, not yet. This comes down to what generalizations can be made from a single, limited study. This is why the IPCC bases its conclusions on a synthesis of many studies, not relying on any particular one." . . dave souza, talk 18:10, 29 December 2011 (UTC) I think it is too early to include the purported conclusions (reduced range around sensitivity estimates). I don't even think that is the important take-away; for me, the more important take-away is the difficulty in nailing down key assumptions.--SPhilbrick(Talk) 18:20, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Even if we were to accept this paper's results "imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought", that is still quite a reach to "Global warming concern overestimated", even to the point of misrepresenation. But enough. We have a demand from one – well, I won't call him an editor because there is no sign of any actual editing, more like a provocateur, and I'm guessing yet another Scibaby sock – and ten or so editors (pretty much all known contributors with some experience in the subject) thoroughly rebutting both the interpretation made (and the demand) with solid arguments. There is consensus. So let's stop wasting any more time on this (which was probably the intent from the start). I am going to re-collapse this. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 18:52, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Thanks for the interesting, ongoing discussion. I would like to recommend that we place this in the "Further Reading" section. Samel Jankins (talk) 20:20, 29 December 2011 (UTC) Negative. Your mischaracterization of that report's result as "Global warming concern overestimated" strongly suggests you are trying to use that report as a WP:COATRACK. There is a good reason we generally do not use primary sources: the difficulty of non-experts attempting to evaluate expert material. Besides, there are literally thousands of papers establishing the GW should be a concern, and you have utterly failed to show how this report is notable in the way you suggest. And yet again: see Q21. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:56, 29 December 2011 (UTC)

Kudos and a suggestion about the FAQ

This WP:SOAP lacks specific suggestions, such as proposed draft text, for improving THIS article. click show to read anyway

I've been using Wikipedia's Global Warming article for while now as an example of why you can't trust Wikipedia for any topic that's in the least bit controversial. This is primarily due to the growing extremism of right wing politics in the U.S. and the tactics and behavior of its adherents, with the whole Global Warming "controversy" being a poster child for how right wingers try to trump science and genuine research with their beliefs and ideology (and being just a little bit too successful at times.) This was especially the case with the Global Warming article, which has been in a near constant state of edit warfare for several years now, with tedious, frustrating struggles to keep the article even modestly genuinely reflective of the state of science involved rather than the volatile politics and crackpottery surrounding it. After the article's staunchest defenders either left out of frustration (like Raymond Arritt) or were pushed away (like William Connelley), I thought the article, which I considered already too unbalanced in the wrong direction, would quickly degrade further. Initially it looked very much like that would be the case, but I never did any further checking for a long while afterwards -- actually not until this morning. I had popped onto Wikipedia's Joseph McCarthy article looking for a ref to some info, and noticed that it too had become degraded with a successful right wing incursion (go to the article and scroll down -- you'll know it when you see it), which made me wonder how bad the Global Warming article had become. So I popped over here and....was pleasantly surprised. It seemed much more solid in its grounding in real science than the last time I checked, and I really like the new(ish) FAQ section you have on the Talk page -- clear, complete and very well referenced. So you get my kudos for all this. My suggestion actually involves the FAQ -- that's such a nice, informational FAQ that I think it deserves its own page. Granted that there are already too many climate change-related articles on Wikipedia, still -- that's too good of a FAQ to not have it more visible to the general Wikipedia audience somehow. So, for what it's worth.... 209.6.39.87 (talk) aka CallMeBC —Preceding undated comment added 18:15, 11 January 2012 (UTC). Hmmm. So just like the IPCC Assessment Reports have a Summary for Policymakers, perhaps we should have a "highlights" or some such of this article? Interesting idea. Not as a separate article (as it would not be a separate topic), but perhaps as a summary. A box? Maybe something to think about. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 16:45, 13 January 2012 (UTC)

Dissent

I understand that wikipedia is a "mouthpiece for reliable source", therefore I want to provide a link that has tons of reliable sources of dozens of major, renowned scientists with ample credentials from such prestigious firms as CERN, the Royal Society, top scientific journal Nature, Dr. Ivar Giaever a Nobel Prize-winner in physics, APEGGA's executive director Neil Windsor, Dr. Joanne Simpson, one of the world's top weather scientists, Dr. Fred Singer, first director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, and others who all disagree with the "majority of scientists" who claim exists and is a crisis. I encourage you all to educate yourselves on the other side of the spectrum. Read the whole story with sources and everything here: http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/11/scientists_in_revolt_against_global_warming.html#ixzz1h8TpZBGC --Jacksoncw (talk) 03:25, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

CAUTION The above link behaves strange on my PC. It somehow breaks my back button, and I get an infinite loop with a message about resending info. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 04:12, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Never Mind the above "caution". The link works OK. Perhaps the NewsAndEventsGuy needs to learn how to a refresh? Santamoly (talk) 22:29, 23 December 2011 (UTC)

Because advocacy authors usually fire the biggest bullet first, the quality of that article can be judged by the its first big bullet, which is silly notion that warming stopped in 1998. What you have in that essay is a bunch of people mouthing off, whereas real science is done with data, analysis, and reproducibility, as reported in the peer reviewed literature. So if the folks quoted in that essay have reproducible data and analysis then... wonderful! Let me know when someone publishes something tangible in the professional lit. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 04:08, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Caution? I am pretty sure you just made that up, the site is completely safe; American Thinker is a well known publisher of ideas. You clearly didn't actually read the article because it states, with links, that there were studies done by CERN that came up with conclusive data. Actually go to the link and read it, there is real science done with real data and analysis by these groups. CERN is the organization that invented the World Wide Web, that built the multi-billion dollar Large Hadron Collider, and that has now built a pristinely clean stainless steel chamber that precisely recreated the Earth’s atmosphere. In this chamber, 63 CERN scientists from 17 European and American institutes have done what global warming doomsayers said could never be done — demonstrate that cosmic rays promote the formation of molecules that in Earth’s atmosphere can grow and seed clouds, the cloudier and thus cooler it will be. Because the sun’s magnetic field controls how many cosmic rays reach Earth’s atmosphere (the stronger the sun’s magnetic field, the more it shields Earth from incoming cosmic rays from space), the sun determines the temperature on Earth. There is research, not just "mouthing off". You can find the whole story on their findings by reading the Article by Nature magazine or reading about it here: ww.eutimes.net/2011/09/cern-the-sun-causes-global-warming/ --174.49.24.190 (talk) 15:24, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project also did studies that were published by the Heartland Institute here: http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/22835.pdf they concluded that "nature, not human activity, rules the climate".--174.49.24.190 (talk) 15:31, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

You are abusing the word "studies". It does not mean what you think. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:36, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Whether my wording was correct or not, their data and conclusions still stand, and it is not simply "mouthing off". And even if it were, that would at least deserve mention since all of these are renowned, credible scientists; but it isn't just mouthing off, they have data as shown above.--174.49.24.190 (talk) 15:39, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

(edit conflict)I did not find the hacked problems with the linked page either. However, the IP and the OP misinterpret the CERN studies. The CERN studies are indeed quite interesting as they demonstrate that precursors of clouds can be formed with cosmic rays. However, there's still a very long way before any connection is shown with global temperatures. First it has to be shown that the rate of increased cloud nucleus formation -> increased cloud formation. Then it has to be shown that this rate vs. the cosmic ray flux is significant compared with the overall cloud formation rate on Earth. Then it has to be shown what altitude the clouds are formed at, as whether clouds add to temperature or subtract to it depends on their altitude (I believe high clouds -> increased temperature (more greenhouse effect), and low clouds -> decreased temperature (higher albedo)). In then end though, it's next to impossible that cosmic rays will have a strong effect on climate because there have been tremendous cosmic ray events in the past, but these events don't correspond with major climate shifts. For further reading on actual global warming science rather than what a conservative news source says is the science of global warming, I cannot recommend a better source then Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming. Sailsbystars (talk) 15:43, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Of course it doesn't have a "strong effect", if it did, there would be strong fluctuations in the temperature, but there haven't been. CERN isn't a republican source, I wasn't going off of what "a conservative news source says" I gave you the interpretative quote from the article that was published by Nature Magazine, in fact, I copy/pasted it from Nature Magazine; and I would go out on a limb and say Nature Magazine isn't a conservative source. Since it was data found by CERN and interpereted by Nature Magazine, it definitely deserves mention in the article; and we should work on rough drafts right away. You also are ignoring the second conclusion found by the Science and Environmental Policy Project above. By the way, I am the ip above.--Jacksoncw (talk) 15:51, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Appologies, I quoted and copy/pasted Author Lawrence Solomon, not Nature Magazine. I still believe it deserves mention in the article.--Jacksoncw (talk) 15:59, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

I was interested in the idea that there might be "the other side" to what tries to be a reasonably balanced neutral point of view article. I cannot really see one here though. --BozMo talk 16:01, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

I don't think that an article which ignores the views, which are arguably supported by evidence and even if not deserve mention, of dozens of credible scientists who at the very least think Global Warming is not a crisis; many of whom believe global warming is a natural phenomenon that stopped in 1998 and not relevant in any way, can be considered to have a "reasonably balanced neutral point of view. Again, I encourage you all to read the link to American Thinker in my very first post that elaborates on some of these people and their views.--Jacksoncw (talk) 16:10, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

(edit conflict)I think the article you want is Global warming controversy, although there are some mentions in this article of the controversies. However, from the standpoint of the scientific literature, there really isn't a credible "other side" these days in terms of the overall picture (CO2->2-5 deg C of warming per doubling), although many details (hurricanes, effects at the regional level) remain under serious study and debate. Also, Fred Singer has not been a credible scientist for about the past 20 years..... Sailsbystars (talk) 16:18, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Sorry. I did read the American thinker article but sadly it hasn't got any kind of substance. It is an opinion piece by someone who doesn't appear to have a clue. If we took those kind of stanards of reliable sourcing Elvis would be sighted twice a week. --BozMo talk 16:26, 21 December 2011 (UTC)

Did you notice that some of his words are hyper-linked to other sources that support his claims? It doesn't matter whether you think he has a clue or not. The reliable sources that are hyper-linked in his opinion piece are reliable and need to be mentioned.--174.49.24.190 (talk) 20:41, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

Could you list here those sources that you want included? I went through the hyperlinks from this article and all I saw were links to other op-ed pieces and not relevant news articles. Not really anything we can use here. --McSly (talk) 21:15, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

Sorry for the partial nonsequitur, I suggest that this article focus more on data and measurements indicating global warming (not modeling). The current article comes across as less-data driven and pre-judging that the effects are real. The section on "Observed temperature changes", which is the crucial part, is thin and the lead-off (and I guess the best data?) indicate a small effect and discusses weather vs climate (2010 being the warmest). I would think that the article on global warming would have a big section and subsections on, well, global warming.--Smokefoot (talk) 22:14, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

You're wrong. The article is already heavily data-laden, but importantly GW isn't just about the past and observations. As it says "Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation". Your own personal GW might be different, of course William M. Connolley (talk) 22:24, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

Also see WP:SUMMARY. More details on the measured temperature curve are at Instrumental temperature record, which is linked from the section Observed temperature changes. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:54, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

Dissent? ... Wikipedia is like Syria ... there is no dissent ... just a small group of malcontents who reject the overwhelming consensus of support for those running the show. Come on, it's got beyond a joke. The simple fact is that most politicians have stopped taking this subject seriously. Most teachers, most journalists, most people, have realised that a small group of zealots took over climate science and cherry picked the data to predict doom ... it's embarrassing that this article still exists. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.78.91.97 (talk) 09:31, 31 December 2011 (UTC)

Time to consign Global Warming to the History books

Clear example of using WP as a WP:SOAPBOX
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
It cannot have escaped anyone's notice that there is no replacement for Kyoto, and that the world's temperature has failed to increase, or that most politicians, journalists and teachers now treat global warming with the same warmth as last year's PC fad idea. Global warming never was a proper article. It isn't a subject worthy of science ... since it is so ambiguous in terms of time-scale, causation, etc. It now looks like almost all that "science" is being proven to be a load of codswallop. At the very least not a single temperature prediction has been accurate. Many have even predicted warming when it cooled!! Unfortunately, the utterly ridiculous concentration of this article on the so called "science" means that most of the historically important information on "global warming" has not been captured. Global warming was a very important social phenomena. It is an important point at which World wide environmentalism came face to face with world-wide global economies and world-wide (satellite based) science and communication provided a network of data to stimulate a debate about the future of mankind. Obviously a few environmentalists and enviro-scientists got their fingers burnt over global warming, as did a few "post-modern" scientists who gave up truth via hard science for truth via "consensus". So, it's pretty certain, that the end of large-scale interest in global warming will have some knock on effects to environmentalism and science. So, please can I make a plea that editors stop this ridiculous obsession regarding global warming being "science" and start appreciating that it is already history. So where is the section on global warming history? Where is an analysis of the political movement that brought this subject to the fore, and where is an analysis of the impacts of this movement on world politics? At the very least, Global warming has dramatically changed the debate about energy use in the same way as Chernobyll changed it about nuclear. It also redefined "environmentalism" for a generation as putting up bird-mincers in the wilderness rather than going to the wilderness to watch those birds. We have seen it used by the UN to try to exert worldwide influence ... again, if there ever were a worldwide "government", then this power grab under the pretence of saving the world from global warming would be seen as a key part of those events. In other words, let's start the serious work of documenting this historically important movement!79.78.91.97 (talk) 09:53, 31 December 2011 (UTC) Your lack of interest in science shows you're on the wrong page, your lack of referenced proposals for article improvement fails WP:TALK so unless you provide such proposals, this section will be archived or deleted. See WP:SOAP. . dave souza, talk 10:30, 31 December 2011 (UTC) Souza, your lack of interest in history shows that you are bound to repeat the mistakes of the past! For your information, I have a proper science degree & am now working on a historical degree. As such I think I am in a much better place than you to see this global warming episode in the context of many similar movements in the past ... each apparently important at the time, but historically of limited interest ... usually in the areas which no on thinks to document at the time because like you, you can't see the wood for the trees. I doubt this will be any different, but that doesn't mean it isn't right to ask to try to capture the important stuff before it all gets forgotten. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.78.91.97 (talk) 10:39, 31 December 2011 (UTC) WP's purpose is not history or journalism. WP is a tertiary reference - not a primary or secondary. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 10:47, 31 December 2011 (UTC)

Citation work needed

I have pretty much completed converting the IPCC citations in this article to the new format. However, in various cases I was not able find the material cited, so tagged the citation. Yes, this makes it a bit messy, but the answer for that is for some editors to grab the appropriate pdf files and search for the cited material, then add the location (section) to the citation. Ask if you have questions. Some of the non-IPCC citations also need to be checked and/or brought up to standard. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:24, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

Urban heat island

Ref [4] I assume the point about the Urban Heat Island effect is that it causes a potential discrepancy to the temperature record not because it has a (minute) effect on Global Warming itself. That right? --BozMo talk 10:50, 23 December 2011 (UTC)

Note that edit is wrong to say "The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900".

What IPCC actually says is more complex:

In summary, although some individual sites may be affected, including some small rural locations, the UHI effect is not pervasive, as all global-scale studies indicate it is a very small component of large-scale averages. Accordingly, this assessment adds the same level of urban warming uncertainty as in the TAR: 0.006°C per decade since 1900 for land, and 0.002°C per decade since 1900 for blended land with ocean, as ocean UHI is zero. These uncertainties are added to the cool side of the estimated temperatures and trends, as explained by Brohan et al. (2006), so that the error bars in Section 3.2.2.4, Figures 3.6 and 3.7 and FAQ 3.1, Figure 1 are slightly asymmetric. The statistical significances of the trends in Table 3.2 and Section 3.2.2.4, Table 3.3 take account of this asymmetry.

Which is closer to saying that 0.002 is an upper bound, not a best-estimate William M. Connolley (talk) 12:02, 23 December 2011 (UTC)

Revision of lede

I've put together a draft revision of the article's lede.

OPPOSED TO THE BULK PRESENTATION I have no problem with trying to improve the lead but would prefer to take it paragraph by paragraph. You appear to have preserved the breakout of topics for the paragraphs so this should be easy to do, and a good way to get good focus and comments on each installment. I have content comments too, after others have a chance to comment on the procedural approach. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:15, 24 December 2011 (UTC)

Enescot reply to NewsAndEventsGuy

Thanks for the reply. I'd first like to change the following paragraph of current revision shown below:

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.[11] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, with projections being more robust in some areas than others.[12] In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[13]

My suggested revision is (see the sub-section below for references):

the lede:

Nearly all land areas are projected to warm more than the global average, with more hot days and heat waves, and fewer cold days and cold waves (IPCC, 2001d, Table SPM-3: Robust findings and key uncertainties). Other projected effects include further sea level rise, more intense precipitation events over many areas, increased risk of droughts over most mid-latitude areas (IPCC, 2001d, Table SPM-3: Robust findings and key uncertainties), species extinctions (Schneider et al, 2007, 19.3.4 Ecosystems and biodiversity), and regional changes in agricultural yields (Schneider et al, 2007, 19.3.2.1 Agriculture).

the section on adaptation:

(existing revision) Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.[131] The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[132] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.

The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood. (addition) There is, however, wide agreement in the scientific literature that the greater the magnitude of future global warming, the more difficult it will be for human society and the natural environment to adapt to it (Schneider et al, 2007, Executive summary). Adaptation will also be more difficult for faster rates of warming than slower rates (Schneider et al, 2007, Executive summary).

To summarize the reasons behind my suggested revision:

• the current revision contains some potentially misleading information " Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events..." This implies that all extreme events will become more frequent, which is not correct.
• one part of the current revision contains a technical term which is not explained, "(...) species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes (...) ".
• my revision is based on the IPCC's "robust findings," which are probably the most extensively scrutinized set of findings on climate change. They are also presumably the most important of the IPCC's findings.
• In my opinion, one sentence in the current revision is vague and rather uninformative "Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, with projections being more robust in some areas than others.[12]" My revision is more specific on the actual regional effects of climate change, e.g., "increased risk of droughts over most mid-latitude areas, (...)"
• the information contained in the lede on adaptation is based on one paper. It is similar in some respects to the IPCC's findings, but I do not think it is suitable for the lede. In my opinion, the lede should focus on the IPCC's robust findings and those findings most directly related to Article 2 of the UNFCCC.
• I think that the information presented on adaptation is rather difficult to understand. In the lede, I think it's better to focus on topics that can be easily understood and summarized, like the direct impacts of climate change. Enescot (talk) 15:17, 26 December 2011 (UTC)

Enescot's suggested revision prior to NewsAndEventsGuy's comments

Current revision

Here's the current revision of the lede (2011-12-24, 14:30) for reference:

Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[3][4][5][6] These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.[7][A]

Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest.[8] The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[9][10]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.[11] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, with projections being more robust in some areas than others.[12] In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[13]

Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[14] whose ultimate objective is to prevent "dangerous" anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate change.[15] Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions[16]:10[17][18][19]:9 and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[16]:13[19]:10[20][21] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[22] and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.[22][B] Analyses by the United Nations Environment Programme (published in 2011)[23] and International Energy Agency (2011)[24] suggest that current efforts to reduce emissions may be inadequately stringent to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target.

I have some problems with this revision. In my opinion, parts of it are too long, too technical/jargony, confusing, or imprecise/vague.

Suggested revision

Cited sources are given later on in the references section. If other editors agree with parts of my suggested revision, I'll change the references to make them consistent with the rest of the article:

Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and is evident from observations of increases in global air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level (IPCC, 2007d, SYR 6.1 Observed changes in climate and their effects, and their causes).

Since the start of the industrial revolution in 1750, human activities have lead to an increase in the concentration of heat-trapping "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels, but also through changes in land use, such as deforestation (Denman, et al, 2007, FAQ 7.1 Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?). Scientists are more than 90% certain that most of the global warming observed since the mid-20th century was caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007d, SPM 2. Causes of change). This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.[7][A]

A range of projections suggest future global warming during the 21st century of between 1.1 and 6.4 deg C (US NRC, 2010, p.2; USGCRP, 2009, p.24; IPCC, 2007d, SPM 3. Projected climate change and its impacts). The projected rate of warming over the 21st century would very likely be without precedent during the last 10,000 years (IPCC, 2001d, Table SPM-3: Robust findings and key uncertainties). Nearly all land areas are projected to warm more than the global average, with more hot days and heat waves, and fewer cold days and cold waves (IPCC, 2001d, Table SPM-3: Robust findings and key uncertainties). Other projected effects include further sea level rise, more intense precipitation events over many areas, increased risk of droughts over most mid-latitude areas (IPCC, 2001d, Table SPM-3: Robust findings and key uncertainties), species extinctions (Schneider et al, 2007, 19.3.4 Ecosystems and biodiversity), and regional changes in agricultural yields (Schneider et al, 2007, 19.3.2.1 Agriculture).

The governments of most countries in the world are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and have agreed that global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.[22][B] Analyses by the United Nations Environment Programme (published in 2011)[23] and International Energy Agency (2011)[24] suggest that current efforts to reduce emissions may be inadequately stringent to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target.

Reasons for change

For the opening paragraph, I've added the IPCC's summary of the evidence for "unequivocal" warming. I think that including this short summary in the lede is entirely justified considering the article's subject matter.

I wasn't happy with the previous summary of the IPCC projections. I thought it was too long and confusing. My new summary is based on how the US National Research Council and US Global Change Research Program summarize the IPCC's work. I should note that the UNEP/IEA studies referred to in the introduction state that current policies are not consistent with holding warming to below 2 deg C. I think this addresses the possible concern that the IPCC's low-end temperature projection is misleading or outdated.

My summary of projected impacts is based mainly on the IPCC TAR's summary of "robust findings". The IPCC state that "a robust finding for climate change is defined as one that holds under a variety of approaches, methods, models, and assumptions and one that is expected to be relatively unaffected by uncertainties." I've used the TAR's summary instead of AR4's because AR4's are, in my opinion, less suited for use in the lede.

Limits of adaptation

I've removed the current revision's summary on adaptation. The summary is based on one paper, and in my opinion, is rather confusing. Instead, I suggest the following addition to the adaptation section of the article:

(existing revision) Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.[131] The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[132] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.

The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood. (New addition) There is, however, wide agreement in the scientific literature that the greater the magnitude of future global warming, the more difficult it will be for human society and the natural environment to adapt to it (Schneider et al, 2007, Executive summary). Adaptation will also be more difficult for faster rates of warming than slower rates (Schneider et al, 2007, Executive summary).

References

• Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: FAQ 7.1 Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?, in: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• IPCC, 2001d: Table SPM-3: Robust findings and key uncertainties. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of theIntegovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp.
• IPCC, 2007d: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
  • IPCC, 2007d: SPM 2. Causes of change
  • IPCC, 2007d, SPM 3. Projected climate change and its impacts
  • IPCC, 2007d: SYR 6.1 Observed changes in climate and their effects, and their causes.
• Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810.
  • Schneider et al (2007) Executive summary
  • Schneider et al (2007) 19.3.2.1 Agriculture
  • Schneider et al (2007) 19.3.4 Ecosystems and biodiversity
• USGCRP, 2009: Global Climate Change, Karl, TR; et al., eds. (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0. {{cite book}}: Explicit use of et al. in: |editor= (help)CS1 maint: location (link)
• US NRC, 2010: Report in brief, America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-14588-6. {{cite book}}: External link in |publisher= (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

Enescot (talk) 14:36, 24 December 2011 (UTC)

Too long; too many top-postings; too many unsigned paragraphs;too many long quotes from article. Please make specific proposals, one at a time. --Nigelj (talk) 16:16, 26 December 2011 (UTC)

Agree, At least For this particular article's lead section, NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:19, 26 December 2011 (UTC)

I would love to see the evidence, proof, studies, for the exact percentages of various causes, thanks.

It would be great to have some links to the actual experimental studies that show the fingerprinting and proof of causes and the percentages.

Yes, I agree that air pollution from human activity is a major problem. I just want to know what percentage is this cause. Thanks. Ideally everyone would get on board with cleaning up our air quality. Anyone can see the smog over a major city.

Exact measured percentages of warming, with margins of error, from each possible cause, is precisely known? For example, the exact measured percentage of warming from natural solar events is measured? How? What is the exact measured cause by humans? 80% or more? The margin of error? How many studies done? Does anyone know what studies show the measurements that prove the exact percentages for each cause? I would love to see them. Thanks.

What are the other causes, if any? Solar? What percentage confirmed?

Just the facts please. Please, no politics or personal attacks. Thanks.

Data and evidence is all that truly matters, along with excellent repeated experiments. Joseph Prymak (talk) 07:17, 31 December 2011 (UTC)

That is what the source references are for. In particular, see the IPCC reports, which are readily available on-line, come with two levels of summarization, and are better written than we can do here. Along with great images. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:11, 31 December 2011 (UTC)

Thanks Johnson, I will look around their website to see. Joseph Prymak (talk) 16:18, 1 January 2012 (UTC)

See also NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:23, 1 January 2012 (UTC)

Also as I noted on in reply to the same question on my talk page "For what its worth your question on adding up percentages seems based on a false premise in that inevitably Global Warming is not a sum of effects but rather the small difference between two much larger numbers; a large number of positive and a large number of negative effects all of which are estimated from data with relevant error bars in the usual scientific manner. It is therefore easy for the disingenuous to blame other effects than human activity (eg a bigger single contribution to the greenhouse effect comes from water vapour or whatever) since there are larger items on the "positives" side than human activity. However I am sure you are numerate enough to cope with that concept, and with the idea that there is a reason why the human contribution to one side of an equation otherwise in balance has a particular significance. --BozMo talk 21:49, 2 January 2012 (UTC)

Important discussion on use of quotations when citing sources is now underway

FYI, Wikipedia_talk:Citing_sources#Use_of_quote_parameter_in_footnote_-_a_proposal_to_provide_better_guidance. Since this article uses lots of quotes, editors may wish to chime in. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:35, 4 January 2012 (UTC)

I would point out: that discussion is about the use of quotations, not necessarily of the citation/cite templates' "|quote=" parameter. The latter is rather useless, and it is just as well – possibly even better – to have a quotation follow (or precede) the template rather than be incorporated within it. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:59, 4 January 2012 (UTC) (Struck, as based on a misunderstanding. 01:41, 6 January 2012 (UTC))

Excepting of course that you lose 2 things: metadata and automatic rendering according to community standards (which i grant you isn't much of an issue at the moment). So, No... it is certainly not "usefull" and not "even better" not to use the |quote parameter. You need to look at a bigger picture than just rendering on this particular article to actually appreciate what the templates do. Citation templates are not just nice easy ways to render a text. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 14:10, 5 January 2012 (UTC)

I certainly agree that citation templates "not just nice easy ways to render ... text" (though I am appreciative that I can let a template handle all the arcane details of rendering citation text). But... On one hand, I have never seen how a quotation could sensibly be any kind of metadata for a citation. On the other hand, are you thinking in terms of the citation being the metadata that identifies the quotation? ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:00, 6 January 2012 (UTC)

Metadata in this context is data that can be automagically gathered by tools. A quote is such metadata, when you put it in the citation template, it can be automagically identified as a quote - and while this is probably not very useful for citation quotes, it is very useful for the rest of citation parameters. For instance given a question: "How many times are papers by Richard Alley quoted on climate change pages" can be answered by using a bot that collects information from the citation templates. (basically this goes for every known location containing particular information. This ability goes away once the data is outside known locations (as with non-citation template based citations). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:31, 6 January 2012 (UTC)

Look, I know what metadata is. I was questioning which is the metadata here. I think you are saying that the citation is the metadata that describes the quotation. Curiously, I had viewed it inversely. Well, I see your point. I think there are some issues with |quote=, but perhaps better an imperfect tool than none at all. So I don't mind allowing that |quote= is not entirely useless. Thank you for pointing that out. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 01:41, 6 January 2012 (UTC)

No global warming for 15 years

This article needs to be updated to reflect the fact there has been no warming for the last 15 years:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html

GoCacheGo (talk) 21:49, 29 January 2012 (UTC)

The Daily Mail has a rather tenuous relationship with fact, got a reliable source? Hint: try this WMO press release, rather neatly graphically illustrated in Skep Sci. . dave souza, talk 22:01, 29 January 2012 (UTC)

Specifically, does anyone have the citation for the unidentified "paper" described in the article? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:20, 29 January 2012 (UTC)

If it's the one I think you're asking about, Pa reports pre-pub interviews, due to appear in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres, so all a bit premature. . . dave souza, talk 22:48, 29 January 2012 (UTC)

Five agencies report average global temperature. See them graphed at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true. Links are provided so they can be verified.Dan Pangburn (talk) 22:57, 29 January 2012 (UTC)

Just another Daily Mail epic fail: Met Office 2012 annual global temperature forecast - Met Office appears to be the source their "reporter" David Rose has mangled. H/T Greg Laden, nice explanation from Barry Bickmore. . . dave souza, talk 23:13, 29 January 2012 (UTC)

If you look at the the satellite or the radiosounde data it's apparent that 2011 was significantly cooler than 2010. The trend has been flat for ten years now. There's a paper "Nature's style: Naturally trendy" that found ten-year trends all over the place based simply on the way the math of complex systems works. So a ten-year trend isn't long enough to establish anything. But certainly the WMO press release tracks the year-by-year temperature like it was a stock index. Kauffner (talk) 03:58, 30 January 2012 (UTC)

Steven Milloy's Junk Science? The view from big tobacco and big oil, but not a reliable science source. Your statement is rather at odds with "However, what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850. Depending on which temperature records you use, 2010 was the warmest year on record for NOAA NCDC and NASA GISS, and the second warmest on record in HadCRUT3.” Source: the Met Office as linked below. However, as you rightly indicate, looking at the ten years out of context is typical pseudosceptic cherry picking, which is why the Met look at it in relation to the overall record. . dave souza, talk 10:56, 30 January 2012 (UTC)

• Met Office in the Media: 29 January 2012 « Met Office News Blog – "Today the Mail on Sunday published a story written by David Rose entitled 'Forget global warming – it’s Cycle 25 we need to worry about'. This article includes numerous errors in the reporting of published peer reviewed science undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre and for Mr. Rose to suggest that the latest global temperatures available show no warming in the last 15 years is entirely misleading. Despite the Met Office having spoken to David Rose ahead of the publication of the story, he has chosen to not fully include the answers we gave him to questions ...". This is the official blog of the Met Office news team, intended to provide journalists and bloggers with the latest weather, climate science and business news and information from the Met Office. A trivial but all too typical example of fraudulent "controversy" by misrepresentation in the press. . .dave souza, talk 10:56, 30 January 2012 (UTC)

So I am in league with Big Tobacco and Big Oil, and a press release is a better source than a graph of the actual data? This is pretty frothy. Kauffner (talk) 03:52, 31 January 2012 (UTC)

You're Steven Milloy? Perhaps you should declare a WP:COI if that's the case, and note that Junk Science graphs are not reliable sources. The issue of temperatures over the last 15 years is well shown in a graph of the actual data from a reliable source, which I've now added to the article, together with some up to date clarification. . . dave souza, talk 22:25, 31 January 2012 (UTC)

The ozone hole is worse now than it ever was, but no one cares anymore.[5] The climate has to warm, cool, or stay the same. So as Lindzen likes to say, there is a one-third chance of warming even if the AGW is completely off the wall. Regardless of what happens with the climate, this boogieman served its function in 2008 and now in the way. So it's going back in the closet to live with global cooling, acid rain, overpopulation, and resource depletion. Ecofreak end-of-the-world scenarios are a dime a dozen. I'm sure the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Club of Rome can work up something new. Kauffner (talk) 03:11, 1 February 2012 (UTC)