Republicans expanded their majority by one seat to an 86–64 margin in the 2022 elections, winning multiple competitive, heavily Hispanic, districts in South Texas, while Democrats performed better than expected in suburban areas.[3]
During the regular session, the legislature expanded school armed security measures, banned diversity, equity and inclusion offices at public universities, and allowed school districts to hire or volunteer chaplains for mental health support for students.[4][5][6] Near the end of the session, the House voted unanimously to expel Republican Bryan Slaton for having an improper relationship with an aide.[7] Republican infighting led to the collapse of a school voucher bill during the regular session, but governor Greg Abbott vowed to call special sessions until it passed.[8]
Efforts to legalize online sports betting and casino gambling found a resurgence in the House late in the session. Both proposals were supported by casino company owners and sports executives, such as Las Vegas Sands and Dallas Mavericks owner Miriam Adelson, as well as former Mavericks owner Mark Cuban.[9] Legislation to legalize either would have had to take the form of a constitutional amendment, requiring supermajority support in both legislative chambers, as well as approval from voters. The proposal to legalize online sports betting received 101 votes in the House, one above the supermajority threshold, but the bill to legalize casino gambling died without receiving a vote. Neither effort was expected to succeed in the Texas Senate due to opposition from Republican senators and lieutenant governorDan Patrick.[10][11]
House vote on measure to remove school voucher provisions[16]
Democratic yes (63)
Republican yes (21)
Republican no (63)
Republican voting "present" (1)
Absent Democrat (1)
Vacant district (1)
After the end of the regular session, Abbott called four special sessions to push for the voucher bill, but these efforts failed, bringing the effort to a final defeat in November 2023 when 21 Republicans voted with Democrats on an amendment to strip the voucher provisions from the House's education bill.[17][18]
As a result of this infighting, multiple Republican incumbents found themselves having to defend against Paxton-endorsed candidates and pro-voucher groups in the state house primaries.[19][20]
On September 10, 2024, 48 house Republicans who opposed Phelan unanimously chose David Cook[21] of the 96th district as the reformer-endorsed candidate in the next speakership election.[22][23] Phelan is expected to seek support from Democrats in order to remain as speaker.[24]
Nine incumbent representatives, all Republicans, were defeated in the March 5 primary election.[41] Nine incumbents (eight Republicans, one Democrat) faced runoff elections.[42]
The special election to fill the seat of expelled representative Bryan Slaton was held on November 7, 2023, but no candidate received a majority of the vote, with Jill Dutton and Brent Money, both Republicans, advancing to the runoff.[43][44] Dutton received support from SpeakerDade Phelan and former governor Rick Perry, while Money received support from governorGreg Abbott, U.S. SenatorTed Cruz, and attorney generalKen Paxton. Many saw the race as a preview for the intraparty battle over vouchers and Paxton's impeachment that was soon to take place in the March primary. Dutton narrowly won the runoff on January 30, 2024.[45][46][47]
Texas House of Representatives 2nd district special election
Dozens of Republican lawmakers faced primary challenges over votes on the impeachment of Ken Paxton and on school vouchers. Paxton and Abbott combined have endorsed primary challengers for over half of all Republicans running for re-election.[48] Former presidentDonald Trump has additionally endorsed seven challengers to House incumbents, with the three men endorsing opposing candidates in several races, including multiple in Collin County.[49][50] The primary has garnered national attention due to its attempts to push the House in a more conservative direction and the high number of primary challengers, especially the challenge against incumbent speakerDade Phelan.[51][52]
Conservative challengers ousted a number of incumbent Republicans in the primary, including half of those targeted by Greg Abbott. Eight others were forced into May runoff elections, including Phelan. Paxton's challengers were less successful at defeating incumbents, especially when his endorsements conflicted with Abbott's. In total, Paxton endorsed 47 candidates for state house in primary elections, 25 of which lost, 22 ended up winning, and only 4 of which were incumbents.[53] The results marked a significant increase in support for school vouchers among Republican legislators.[54][55]
On the Democratic side, multiple incumbents have announced their intention to run for higher office, setting up open primaries for their House seats.[48] A small number of Democrats have been targeted for primary challenges due to their votes with Republicans on LGBT rights and other issues.[56][57]
Six of the eight Republican incumbents forced into runoffs were defeated. Three had Abbott-endorsed challengers due to their opposition to school vouchers, while the others had been targeted due to their vote on the Paxton impeachment. Only Gary VanDeaver, an opponent of vouchers, and incumbent speaker Dade Phelan survived their runoff elections. Abbott suggested that the results of the runoff ensure enough votes to pass vouchers in the next legislative session, although this assumes that Democrats do not gain any seats in the general election.[58] Democrats, for their part, ousted representative Shawn Thierry in a runoff, targeting her due to her votes with Republicans on LGBT rights.[59]
Commentators expect there to be few competitive seats in the general election. Each party won only one House district won by the opposing party's gubernatorial nominee during the 2022 elections.[60] In the leadup to the general election, Republicans outraised Democrats in competitive races in South Texas, while Democrats outraised Republicans in competitive races in Dallas and San Antonio.[61] Abbott has boasted 77 Republican candidates on the general election ballot who supported school voucher legislation in previous sessions or ousted anti-voucher incumbents, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of at least two seats from the 2022 election to continue to block vouchers.[62]
Due to the size of the Republicans' majority and the low number of competitive seats, most analysts consider a change in control of the chamber to be unlikely.
Incumbent Republican Gary VanDeaver won re-election. Chris Spencer forced VanDeaver into a runoff, with the latter's votes against school vouchers and for the impeachment of Ken Paxton emerging as primary points of contention between the two candidates.[69] VanDeaver himself won election to the House in a 2014 Republican primary against then-incumbent George Lavender, who was considered much more conservative than VanDeaver.[70] VanDeaver defeated Spencer in the runoff.[58]
Incumbent Republican Jill Dutton ran for re-election. She was elected in a January 2024 special election and faced a rematch with Brent Money. Money, the more conservative of the two candidates, sought victory in the primary after blaming his defeat in the special election on Democrats allegedly voting for Dutton. Texas has an open primary system for its elections.[71] Money defeated Dutton.[41]
Incumbent Republican Cole Hefner won re-election. He faced Independent Nancy Nichols, a former Democratic Committee member, who ran as a write-in candidate.
Incumbent Republican Jay Dean won re-election. He was targeted for a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[74] Despite this, neither of Dean's primary opponents received an endorsement from Greg Abbott.[73]
Incumbent Republican Travis Clardy ran for re-election but lost renomination to Joanne Shofner.[41] He was endorsed by attorney general Paxton, but was targeted for a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[77][78]
Incumbent Republican Kyle Kacal retired.[26] Kacal had opposed school voucher legislation during the previous legislative session.[16] Trey Wharton and Ben Bius, both supporters of vouchers, advanced to a runoff election, but Greg Abbott endorsed Wharton in the race.[79][80] Wharton defeated Bius in the runoff.[81]
Incumbent Republican John N. Raney retired.[27] Raney announced his retirement after having voted against school voucher legislation in the previous legislature. Greg Abbott endorsed Paul Dyson, a supporter of school vouchers, in the Republican primary.[82]
Incumbent Republican Ernest Bailes ran for re-election but lost renomination to Janis Holt.[41] He had been targeted for a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[86] Bailes campaigned heavily on his support for public schools. Holt, on the other hand, made little to no mention of vouchers during her campaign, focusing instead on immigration issues, especially as they related to Bailes' support of 2017 legislation that enabled the establishment of a municipal management district in Colony Ridge. The district led to the construction of housing primarily occupied by low-income and immigrant families, which Holt claimed was overly burdening the area's hospitals and schools. District 18 was the only district in the state to oust an anti-voucher incumbent without having any accredited private schools within its boundaries.[87]
Incumbent Republican Ellen Troxclair won re-election. She was targeted for a primary challenge by former state representative Kyle Biedermann due to her support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton.[88]
Incumbent Republican Speaker of the Texas HouseDade Phelan ran for re-election. Phelan was targeted by conservatives over his support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton, the House's failure to pass school voucher legislation in the 2023 session, and his continuation of the practice of appointing Democrats as chairs of House committees.[89] Despite heralding the passage of conservative legislation on abortion, guns, and border security, Phelan was targeted as "insufficiently conservative" by many in the state party, which voted to censure him in February 2024.[90][91] The race was seen as the primary hotspot in the party's internal battle in the primary over the Paxton impeachment and school vouchers.[92][93] Much of the campaign was focused on Paxton's impeachment, but it also included the alleged harassment of Phelan's wife and terroristic threats against Phelan himself.[94][95] This was Phelan's first primary challenge since he initially won the Beaumont-area district in 2014.[91]
David Covey, the former Republican chairman of Orange county, forced Phelan into a runoff in what many had seen as a battle between "old guard" Texas Republicans and the far-right. Supporters of Covey argued that Phelan has given too much power to house Democrats through his continuation of the practice of appointing Democrats as chairs of certain house committees.[96][97][98] Prominent Republicans such as former governor Rick Perry and former U.S. SenatorKay Bailey Hutchison headlined fundraising for Phelan, including businesswoman Miriam Adelson, while conservative businessmen Jeff Yass, Farris Wilks, and Tim Dunn had given financial backing to Covey, in what became the most expensive house race in state history.[99][100][101] Controversy arose during the campaign after a deepfaked mailer depicting Phelan with prominent Democratic politicians such as Nancy Pelosi was circulated.[102] The ad accused Phelan of being a Democratic "puppet," but it did not violate the state's recently passed anti-deepfake law, causing some to consider revising it during the next session.[103]
Republican runoff results by precinct.
Phelan—100%
Phelan—80–90%
Phelan—70–80%
Phelan—60–70%
Phelan—50–60%
Covey—50–60%
Covey—60–70%
Covey—70–80%
Covey—80–90%
Covey—100%
Phelan narrowly won the runoff against Covey, ensuring his re-election. His future as Speaker is less certain, however, as many within his caucus have called for his replacement, and many other backers of his speakership have lost their primaries.[104]
Incumbent Democrat Christian Manuel won re-election. He defeated lawyer Al Price Jr., the son of former state representative Al Price Sr, in the Democratic primary[112]
Incumbent Republican Jacey Jetton ran for re-election but lost renomination to Matt Morgan.[41] He had been targeted for a primary challenge due to his support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton.[113]
Incumbent Republican Gary Gates won re-election. Gates voted for the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton, but he later expressed regret for the vote, publicly defending Paxton and earning his endorsement in his primary election.[114]
Incumbent Republican Ed Thompson retired.[28] Former Pearland city councilors Jeffrey Barry and Alex Kamkar advanced to the Republican primary runoff to replace him. Thompson, an opponent of school voucher legislation, endorsed Barry while Greg Abbott, the primary proponent of vouchers, endorsed Kamkar. Barry also received support from a multitude of local elected officials and anti-voucher political action committees.[115] During the early voting period of the runoff election, Barry accused a supporter of Kamkar of luring a swarm of bees to a campaign tent outside a polling location, although the validity of this accusation was disputed.[116] Barry defeated Kamkar in the runoff election.[115]
Katrina Pierson, the spokesperson for Donald Trump's2016 presidential campaign, forced Holland into a runoff. Pierson had endorsed one of Abbott's primary challengers in 2022, and he did not endorse her before the March primary. While Abbott and other Texas Republicans endorsed her after she made the runoff, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz had not, despite her work on both men's previous campaigns.[121] School vouchers and gun control emerged as the primary dividing issues between the candidates.[122][123] Pierson defeated Holland in the runoff.[58]
Incumbent Democrat Abel Herrero retired.[34] Former state representative Solomon Ortiz Jr. defeated Corpus Christi city council member Roland Barrera in the Democratic Primary. He will face Republican Denise Villalobos in the general, in what is a top pickup target for Texas Republicans.
Incumbent Republican Janie Lopez won re-election. Lopez narrowly won the South Texas district in 2022.[124] Among Lopez's Democratic challengers is former representative Alex Dominguez, who represented the seat prior to the 2022 election before retiring to run for the Texas Senate.[125] Lopez is considered a top Democratic target for this election.[126]
Incumbent Republican J. M. Lozano won re-election. Lozano voted for the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton, but he later expressed regret for the vote and did not draw any primary challengers over it.[114]
Incumbent Republican John Kuempel ran for re-election. Former state representative Alan Schoolcraft challenged Kuempel due to his opposition to school voucher legislation and forced him into a runoff.[127][128] Schoolcraft defeated Kuempel in the runoff.[58]
Incumbent Republican Caroline Harris Davila won re-election. She will face Democrat Jennie Birkholz in the general election, in what is a top pickup target for Texas Democrats.
Incumbent Republican Andrew Murr retired. Murr had been targeted by conservatives over his role leading the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton, as well as his opposition to school voucher legislation.[30]
Incumbent Republican Hugh Shine ran for re-election but lost renomination to Hillary Hickland.[41] He had been targeted for a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[129][130]
Incumbent Republican Charles Anderson announced his intention to not seek re-election in late 2023.[131] He resigned from his seat early in August 2024, asking that a special election be held concurrently with the general election to give his successor a seniority advantage.[31] Only Pat Curry and Erin Shank, the winners of the Republican and Democratic primaries respectively, qualified for the special election, leading to identical special and general elections.[132]
Incumbent Republican DeWayne Burns ran for re-election. He was targeted for a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[133][134] Helen Kerwin defeated Burns in the runoff election.[58]
Incumbent Republican Glenn Rogers ran for re-election but lost renomination to Mike Olcott.[41] He had been targeted for a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[135]
Incumbent Republican Frederick Frazier ran for re-election. He was targeted for a primary challenge due to his support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton. Paxton endorsed challengers Chuck Branch and Keresa Richardson,[136][137] and Richardson forced Frazier into a runoff. Richardson attacked Frazier both over his vote on the Paxton impeachment as well as over charges that he impersonated an election official during the 2022 election.[138] Frazier pled no contest to both charges in December 2023 and was granted deferred adjudication, dismissing the charges after he completed his probation sentence in April 2024.[139][140] Richardson defeated Frazier in the runoff.[58]
Incumbent Republican Reggie Smith ran for re-election but lost renomination to Shelley Luther.[41] Luther challenged Smith due to his opposition to school voucher legislation,[141] but she did not receive an endorsement from Greg Abbott. Luther had sharply criticized the governor's policies related to COVID-19, defying orders to shut down her business amid the pandemic.[73]
Incumbent Republican Ben Bumgarner won re-election. He faced multiple Republican primary challengers, and is being challenged by former Democratic state representative Michelle Beckley in the general election.[142]
Incumbent Republican Lynn Stucky ran for re-election.[143] Andy Hopper forced Stucky into a runoff, a rematch of the 2022 election which Stucky won by 94 votes. Hopper attacked Stucky over his vote to impeach attorney generalKen Paxton and has accused him of being insufficiently conservative. Stucky, in turn, attacked Hopper for donations he received in connection to white supremacistNick Fuentes.[144] Hopper defeated Stucky in the runoff election.[58]
Incumbent Republican Kronda Thimesch ran for re-election but lost renomination to Mitch Little.[41] She was targeted for a primary challenge due to her support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton.[145]
Incumbent Democrat Mihaela Plesa won re-election after flipping the Collin County district in 2022.[147] Plesa is considered a top Republican target for this election.[126]School vouchers have become a primary issue in the general election campaign, with Plesa citing the high quality of public schools in Plano ISD as a primary reason people move to the area and Kinard arguing that school choice is necessary for parents who believe that public schools do not align with their values. Immigration and abortion are also key issues in the race.[148]
Incumbent Democrat Evelina Ortega retired.[35] The Democratic primary was crowded, including former state representative Norma Chávez, El Paso council member Alexsandra Annello, County Commissioner Vincent Perez, and Homer Reza. Chávez and Perez advanced to the Democratic primary runoff.
Incumbent Democrat Tracy King retired. King ran unopposed in 2022 and represents the only district Greg Abbott won in his 2022 re-election that simultaneously elected a Democrat to the House. As such, the district is seen as Republican's best opportunity to win a seat from the Democrats.[36][151] Former Uvalde mayor Don McLaughlin won the Republican nomination, while Democrat Cecilia Castellano defeated Rosie Cuellar, the sister of U.S. RepresentativeHenry Cuellar, in a runoff election.[152][153] In August, Castellano's house was searched as part of an investigation into alleged ballot harvesting led by attorney generalKen Paxton. Castellano denied the allegations and accused the investigations of being politically motivated.[154] McLaughlin, who gained high name recognition due to his public response to the 2022 Robb Elementary School shooting, is seen as having a high change to flip the district.[61][62] Shortly before the general election, Cuellar crossed party lines to endorse McLaughlin against Castellano.[155]
Incumbent Republican Four Price retired.[32] Price had voted against school voucher legislation during the previous legislative session. Greg Abbott endorsed Caroline Fairly in the primary election, the daughter of prominent Amarillo businessman Alex Fairly; both Fairlys are strong supporters of Abbott's voucher plan.[159][160] She faced mild controversy due to many of her top endorsers having received campaign contributions from her father.[161] Nonetheless, she won the primary outright against three opponents, avoiding the need for a runoff.[162]
Incumbent Republican Ken King won re-election. Despite King's opposition to school voucher legislation, Karen Post, his primary challenger, did not receive an endorsement from Greg Abbott.[73] King defeated Post by a wide margin in the primary election.[163]
Incumbent Republican Stephanie Klick ran for re-election. David Lowe forced her into a runoff, a rematch of the 2022 election, attacking her voting record as insufficiently conservative. Attorney generalKen Paxton endorsed Lowe due to Klick's vote in favor of his impeachment.[166] Lowe defeated Klick in the runoff election.[58]
Incumbent Republican Speaker Pro Tempore Charlie Geren won re-election. He was targeted for a primary challenge due to his role in the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton.[167]
Incumbent Democrat Venton Jones won re-election. Venton, who was first elected in 2022, faced multiple primary challengers, including former Dallas City Council members Barbara Mallory Caraway and Sandra Crenshaw.[168] Jones won the primary outright, narrowly avoiding a runoff.[169]
Incumbent Democrat Victoria Neave retired to run for State Senate.[37] Linda Garcia was unopposed in the Democratic primary and faces no opposition in the general election.[170]
Incumbent Republican Morgan Meyer won re-election. He was targeted for a primary challenge due to his support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton. His challenger was also endorsed by former presidentDonald Trump and lieutenant governorDan Patrick. Meyer was endorsed by governorGreg Abbott due to his support for school voucher legislation.[49] Meyer narrowly defeated his challenger in the primary, and now faces re-election in what is likely to be one of the most competitive seats of the cycle.[171]
Incumbent Republican Angie Chen Button won re-election. She was targeted for a primary challenge due to her support of the impeachment of attorney generalKen Paxton.[173]Averie Bishop, a former Miss Texas, is also running for the northern Dallas County district as a Democrat.[174] Both candidates are Asian Americans in a district with a sizeable Asian population; the race between the 70 year old Button and the 28 year old Bishop is seen as a flashpoint in the political generational divide within the Asian American community. After having narrowly won re-election in 2020, favorable redistricting enabled Button to win by a much wider margin in 2022. Despite this, both parties see the race as highly competitive and essential to determining the future of school voucher legislation in the state.[175] Button received the endorsement of The Dallas Morning News.[176]
Incumbent Republican John Lujan won re-election. Lujan narrowly won the southern Bexar County district in 2022 after flipping it in a special election the previous year. Lujan is considered a top Democratic target for this election.[126] Democratic nominee Kristian Carranza faced criticism from Republicans over allegedly changing her surname to appeal to Hispanic voters in the majority-Hispanic district, motivations which Carranza denies.[177] Carranza has made her opposition to school voucher legislation and her support for increasing funding for public schools the primary issues of her campaign.[178]
Incumbent Republican Steve Allison ran for re-election, but was defeated in the Republican primary by Marc LaHood.[41] He was the target of a primary challenge due to his opposition to school voucher legislation.[179] Democrats have eyed this seat as a possible pickup opportunity due to Allison's primary defeat.[58] In the runup to the general election, both Allison and former state senator Jeff Wentworth crossed party lines to endorse Laurel Jordan Swift, the Democratic nominee, citing her support for public education and opposition to school vouchers.[180]
Incumbent Democrat Shawn Thierry ran for re-election. She was targeted for a primary challenge due to her votes with Republicans on LGBT issues.[57] Lauren Ashley Simmons defeated Thierry in the runoff election.[59] In August, after having lost renomination, Thierry switched to the Republican Party.[183]
^CNalysis has two separate sets of predictions: Classic (Analyst ratings only), and Expanded (Classic alongside recent statewide election results). This table uses the Classic set.
^Originally elected as a Democrat, changed parties after losing re-nomination.
^ abcdefghijDespart, Zach; Downey, Renzo (March 6, 2024). "Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton declare victory in attack on House GOP defectors". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 12, 2024. Among those candidates who appeared to have lost outright: Steve Allison of San Antonio, Ernest Bailes of Shepherd, Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, Jill Dutton of Ben Wheeler, Jacey Jetton of Richmond, Glenn Rogers of Graford, Hugh Shine of Temple, Reggie Smith of Sherman and Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville.
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