One quarter of individuals with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm) will develop airflow obstruction, but there are no established methods to identify these individuals. We examined the utility of FVC/TLC in identifying features of obstructive lung disease. The ratio of post-bronchodilator FVC and TLC_CT from chest CT (FVC/TLC_CT) among current and former smokers with PRISm (FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7 and FEV1 < 80%) in COPDGene was used to stratify subjects into quartiles: very high, high, low, and very low. We examined the associations between FVC/TLC_CT quartiles and (1) baseline characteristics, (2) respiratory exacerbations, (3) progression to COPD at 5 years, and (4) all-cause mortality. Among participants with PRISm at baseline (n = 1,131), the very low FVC/TLC_CT quartile was associated with increased gas trapping and emphysema, and higher rates of progression to COPD at 5 years (36% versus 17%; p < 0.001) relative to the very high quartile. The very low FVC/TLC_CT quartile was associated with increased total (IRR = 1.65; 95% CI [1.07-2.54]) and severe (IRR = 2.24; 95% CI [1.29-3.89]) respiratory exacerbations. Mortality was lower in the very high FVC/TLC_CT quartile relative to the other quartiles combined. Reduced FVC/TLC_CT ratio in PRISm is associated with increased symptoms, radiographic emphysema and gas trapping, exacerbations, and progression to COPD.

Rationale

Increasing awareness of the prevalence and significance of Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm), alternatively known as restrictive or Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD)-unclassified spirometry, has expanded the body of knowledge on cross-sectional risk factors. However, longitudinal studies of PRISm remain limited.

Objectives

To examine longitudinal patterns of change in lung function, radiographic characteristics, and mortality of current and former smokers with PRISm.

Methods

Current and former smokers, aged 45 to 80 years, were enrolled in COPDGene (phase 1, 2008-2011) and returned for a 5-year follow-up (phase 2, 2012-2016). Subjects completed questionnaires, spirometry, chest computed tomography scans, and 6-minute-walk tests at both study visits. Baseline characteristics, longitudinal change in lung function, and mortality were assessed by post-bronchodilator lung function categories: PRISm (FEV₁/FVC < 0.7 and FEV₁ < 80%), GOLD0 (FEV₁/FVC > 0.7 and FEV₁ > 80%), and GOLD1-4 (FEV₁/FVC < 0.7).

Measurements and main results

Although the prevalence of PRISm was consistent (12.4-12.5%) at phases 1 and 2, subjects with PRISm exhibited substantial rates of transition to and from other lung function categories. Among subjects with PRISm at phase 1, 22.2% transitioned to GOLD0 and 25.1% progressed to GOLD1-4 at phase 2. Subjects with PRISm at both phase 1 and phase 2 had reduced rates of FEV₁ decline (-27.3 ± 42.1 vs. -33.0 ± 41.7 ml/yr) and comparable proportions of normal computed tomography scans (51% vs. 52.7%) relative to subjects with stable GOLD0 spirometry. In contrast, incident PRISm exhibited accelerated rates of lung function decline. Subjects with PRISm at phase 1 had higher mortality rates relative to GOLD0 and lower rates relative to the GOLD1-4 group.

Conclusions

PRISm is highly prevalent, is associated with increased mortality, and represents a transitional state for significant subgroups of subjects. Additional studies to characterize longitudinal progression in PRISm are warranted.

INTRODUCTION: Recent evidence suggests a high prevalence of undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). These individuals are at risk of exacerbations and delayed treatment. We analyzed an at-risk population for the prevalence of abnormal spirometry to provide clarity into who should undergo early spirometry. METHODS: We analyzed data from the COPDGene study. Participants with ≥10 pack-years of smoking were included. Individuals with self-reported or physician-diagnosed COPD, asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema and/or were on inhalers were excluded. Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with abnormal spirometry, defined as either airflow obstruction (AFO) or preserved ratio impaired spirometry. Variables were selected for the final model using a stepwise backward variable elimination process which minimized Akaike information criterion (AIC). Similarly, during the 5-year follow-up period, we assessed factors associated with incident diagnosis of COPD. RESULTS: Of 5055 individuals, 1064 (21%) had undiagnosed AFO. Age, pack-years, current smoking and a history of acute bronchitis were associated with AFO while body mass index, female sex, and Black race were inversely associated. Among 2800 participants with 5-year follow-up, 532 (19%) had an incident diagnosis of COPD. Associated risk factors included mMRC ≥2, chronic productive cough, respiratory exacerbations during the follow-up period, and abnormal spirometry. Age was inversely associated. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of undiagnosed COPD is high in at-risk populations. We found multiple factors associated with undiagnosed COPD and incident diagnosis of COPD at follow up. These results can be used to identify those at risk for undiagnosed COPD to facilitate earlier diagnosis and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal lung volumes representing air trapping identify the subset of smokers with preserved spirometry who develop spirometric chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and adverse outcomes. However, how lung volumes evolve in early COPD as airflow obstruction develops remains unclear. METHODS: To establish how lung volumes change with the development of spirometric COPD, we examined lung volumes from the pulmonary function data (seated posture) available in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs electronic health records (n=71,356) and lung volumes measured by computed tomography (supine posture) available from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study (n=7969) and the SubPopulations and InterMediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) (n=2552) cohorts, and studied their cross-sectional distributions and longitudinal changes across the airflow obstruction spectrum. Patients with preserved ratio-impaired spirometry (PRISm) were excluded from this analysis. RESULTS: Lung volumes from all 3 cohorts showed similar patterns of distributions and longitudinal changes with worsening airflow obstruction. The distributions for total lung capacity (TLC), vital capacity (VC), and inspiratory capacity (IC) and their patterns of change were nonlinear and included different phases. When stratified by airflow obstruction using Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages, patients with GOLD 1 (mild) COPD had larger lung volumes (TLC, VC, IC) compared to patients with GOLD 0 (smokers with preserved spirometry) or GOLD 2 (moderate) disease. In longitudinal follow-up of baseline GOLD 0 patients who progressed to spirometric COPD, those with an initially higher TLC and VC developed mild obstruction (GOLD 1) while those with an initially lower TLC and VC developed moderate obstruction (GOLD 2). CONCLUSIONS: In COPD, TLC, and VC have biphasic distributions, change in nonlinear fashions as obstruction worsens, and could differentiate those GOLD 0 patients at risk for more rapid spirometric disease progression.

Background

Small airways are known to be affected early in the course of COPD; however, traditional spirometric indices may not accurately identify small airways disease.

Research question

Can forced expiratory volume in 3 s/forced expiratory volume in 6 s (FEV₃/FEV₆) identify early airflow abnormalities and predict future clinically important respiratory-related outcomes, including development of COPD?

Study design and methods

The study included 832 current and former smokers with post-bronchodilator FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7 from the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort. Participants were classified as having a reduced pre-bronchodilator FEV₃/FEV₆ based on lower limit of normal (LLN) values. Repeatability analysis was performed for FEV₃ and FEV₆. Regression modeling was used to evaluate the relationship between baseline FEV₃/FEV₆ and outcome measures, including functional small airways disease, on thoracic imaging and respiratory exacerbations. Interval-censored analysis was used to assess progression to COPD.

Results

FEV₃/FEV₆ less than the LLN at baseline, defined as reduced compared with FEV₃/FEV₆ at or above the LLN, was associated with lower FEV₁, poorer health status (St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score), more emphysema, and more functional small airways disease on quantitative imaging. FEV₃ and FEV₆ showed excellent agreement between repeat measurements. A reduced FEV₃/FEV₆ was associated with increased odds of a severe respiratory exacerbation within the first year of follow-up and decreased time to first exacerbation. A low FEV₃/FEV₆ was also associated with development of COPD according to spirometry results (post-bronchodilator FEV₁/FVC < 0.7) during study follow-up.

Interpretation

FEV₃/FEV₆ is a routinely available and repeatable spirometric index that can be useful in the evaluation of early airflow obstruction in current and former smokers without COPD. A reduced FEV₃/FEV₆ can identify those at risk for future development of COPD and respiratory exacerbations.

Clinical trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01969344; URL: www.

Clinicaltrials

gov: ClinicalTrials.gov.

Rationale: The American Thoracic Society (ATS)/European Respiratory Society defines a positive bronchodilator response (BDR) by a composite of BDR in either forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and/or forced vital capacity (FVC) greater than or equal to 12% and 200 ml (ATS-BDR). We hypothesized that ATS-BDR components would be differentially associated with important chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outcomes. Objectives: To examine whether ATS-BDR components are differentially associated with clinical, functional, and radiographic features in COPD. Methods: We included subjects with COPD enrolled in the COPDGene study. In the main analysis, we excluded subjects with self-reported asthma. We categorized BDR into the following: 1) No-BDR, no BDR in either FEV1 or FVC; 2) FEV1-BDR, BDR in FEV1 but no BDR in FVC; 3) FVC-BDR, BDR in FVC but no BDR in FEV1; and 4) Combined-BDR, BDR in both FEV1 and FVC. We constructed multivariable logistic, linear, zero-inflated negative binomial, and Cox hazards models to examine the association of BDR categories with symptoms, computed tomography findings, change in FEV1 over time, respiratory exacerbations, and mortality. We also created models using the ATS BDR definition (ATS-BDR) as the main independent variable. Results: Of 3,340 COPD subjects included in the analysis, 1,083 (32.43%) had ATS-BDR, 182 (5.45%) had FEV1-BDR, 522 (15.63%) had FVC-BDR, and 379 (11.34%) had Combined-BDR. All BDR categories were associated with FEV1 decline compared with No-BDR. Compared with No-BDR, both ATS-BDR and Combined-BDR were associated with higher functional residual capacity %predicted, greater internal perimeter of 10 mm, and greater 6-minute-walk distance. In contrast to ATS-BDR, Combined-BDR was independently associated with less emphysema (adjusted beta regression coefficient, -1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.68 to -0.65; P = 0.001), more frequent respiratory exacerbations (incidence rate ratio, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.50; P = 0.02) and severe exacerbations (incidence rate ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05-1.71; P = 0.02), and lower mortality (adjusted hazards ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58-0.99; P = 0.046). Sensitivity analysis that included subjects with self-reported history of asthma showed similar findings. Conclusions: BDR in both FEV1 and FVC indicates a COPD phenotype with asthma-like characteristics, and provides clinically more meaningful information than current definitions of BDR.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative CT is becoming increasingly common for the characterisation of lung disease; however, its added potential as a clinical tool for predicting severe exacerbations remains understudied. We aimed to develop and validate quantitative CT-based models for predicting severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. METHODS: We analysed the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort, a multicentre study done at 12 clinical sites across the USA, of individuals aged 40-80 years from four strata: individuals who never smoked, individuals who smoked but had normal spirometry, individuals who smoked and had mild to moderate COPD, and individuals who smoked and had severe COPD. We used 3-year follow-up data to develop logistic regression classifiers for predicting severe exacerbations. Predictors included age, sex, race, BMI, pulmonary function, exacerbation history, smoking status, respiratory quality of life, and CT-based measures of density gradient texture and airway structure. We externally validated our models in a subset from the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort. Discriminative model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), which was also compared with other predictors, including exacerbation history and the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity (BODE) index. We evaluated model calibration using calibration plots and Brier scores. FINDINGS: Participants in SPIROMICS were enrolled between Nov 12, 2010, and July 31, 2015. Participants in COPDGene were enrolled between Jan 10, 2008, and April 15, 2011. We included 1956 participants from the SPIROMICS cohort who had complete 3-year follow-up data: the mean age of the cohort was 63·1 years (SD 9·2) and 1017 (52%) were men and 939 (48%) were women. Among the 1956 participants, 434 (22%) had a history of at least one severe exacerbation. For the CT-based models, the AUC was 0·854 (95% CI 0·852-0·855) for at least one severe exacerbation within 3 years and 0·931 (0·930-0·933) for consistent exacerbations (defined as ≥1 acute episode in each of the 3 years). Models were well calibrated with low Brier scores (0·121 for at least one severe exacerbation; 0·039 for consistent exacerbations). For the prediction of at least one severe event during 3-year follow-up, AUCs were significantly higher with CT biomarkers (0·854 [0·852-0·855]) than exacerbation history (0·823 [0·822-0·825]) and BODE index 0·812 [0·811-0·814]). 6965 participants were included in the external validation cohort, with a mean age of 60·5 years (SD 8·9). In this cohort, AUC for at least one severe exacerbation was 0·768 (0·767-0·769; Brier score 0·088). INTERPRETATION: CT-based prediction models can be used for identification of patients with COPD who are at high risk of severe exacerbations. The newly identified CT biomarkers could potentially enable investigation into underlying disease mechanisms responsible for exacerbations. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Background

Mild expiratory flow limitation may not be recognized using traditional spirometric criteria based on the ratio of FEV₁/FVC.

Research question

Does slow vital capacity (SVC) instead of FVC increase the sensitivity of spirometry to identify patients with early or mild obstructive lung disease?

Study design and methods

We included 854 current and former smokers from the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study cohort with a postbronchodilator FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7 and FEV₁ % predicted of ≥ 80% at enrollment. We compared baseline characteristics, chest CT scan features, exacerbations, and progression to COPD (postbronchodilator FEV₁/FVC, < 0.7) during the follow-up period between 734 participants with postbronchodilator FEV₁/SVC of ≥ 0.7 and 120 with postbronchodilator FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 at the enrollment. We performed multivariate linear and logistic regression models and negative binomial and interval-censored proportion hazards regression models adjusted for demographics and smoking exposure to examine the association of FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 with those characteristics and outcomes.

Results

Participants with FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 were older and had lower FEV₁ and more emphysema than those with FEV₁/SVC ≥ 0.7. In adjusted analysis, individuals with postbronchodilator FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 showed a greater percentage of emphysema by 0.45% (95% CI, 0.09%-0.82%), percentage of gas trapping by 2.52% (95% CI, 0.59%-4.44%), and percentage of functional small airways disease based on parametric response mapping by 2.78% (95% CI, 0.72%-4.83%) at baseline than those with FEV₁/SVC ≥ 0.7. During a median follow-up time of 1,500 days, an FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 was not associated with total exacerbations (incident rate ratio [IRR], 1.61; 95% CI, 0.97-2.64), but was associated with severe exacerbations (IRR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.04-4.89). An FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 was associated with progression to COPD during a 3-year follow-up even after adjustment for demographics and smoking exposure (hazard ratio, 3.93; 95% CI, 2.71-5.72). We found similar results when we examined the association of prebronchodilator FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 or FEV₁/SVC less than the lower limit of normal with chest CT scan features and progression to COPD.

Interpretation

Low FEV₁ to SVC in current and former smokers with normal spirometry results can identify individuals with CT scan features of COPD who are at risk for severe exacerbations and is associated with progression to COPD in the future.

Trial registry

ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01969344T4; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Background

Risk factor identification is a proven strategy in advancing treatments and preventive therapy for many chronic conditions. Quantifying the impact of those risk factors on health outcomes can consolidate and focus efforts on individuals with specific high-risk profiles. Using multiple risk factors and longitudinal outcomes in 2 independent cohorts, we developed and validated a risk score model to predict mortality in current and former cigarette smokers.

Methods

We obtained extensive data on current and former smokers from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene^®) study at enrollment. Based on physician input and model goodness-of-fit measures, a subset of variables was selected to fit final Weibull survival models separately for men and women. Coefficients and predictors were translated into a point system, allowing for easy computation of mortality risk scores and probabilities. We then used the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort for external validation of our model.

Results

Of 9867 COPDGene participants with standard baseline data, 17.6% died over 10 years of follow-up, and 9074 of these participants had the full set of baseline predictors (standard plus 6-minute walk distance and computed tomography variables) available for full model fits. The average age of participants in the cohort was 60 for both men and women, and the average predicted 10-year mortality risk was 18% for women and 25% for men. Model time-integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics demonstrated good predictive model accuracy (0.797 average), validated in the external cohort (0.756 average). Risk of mortality was impacted most by 6-minute walk distance, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and age, for both men and women.

Conclusions

Current and former smokers exhibited a wide range of mortality risk over a 10- year period. Our models can identify higher risk individuals who can be targeted for interventions to reduce risk of mortality, for participants with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria.

Background

Bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) in obstructive lung disease varies over time and may be associated with distinct clinical features.

Research question

Is consistent BDR over time (always present) differentially associated with obstructive lung disease features relative to inconsistent (sometimes present) or never (never present) BDR in tobacco-exposed people with or without COPD?

Study design and methods

We retrospectively analyzed data from 2,269 tobacco-exposed participants in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study with or without COPD. We used various BDR definitions: change of ≥ 200 mL and ≥ 12% in FEV₁ (FEV₁-BDR), change in FVC (FVC-BDR), and change in in FEV₁, FVC or both (ATS-BDR). Using generalized linear models adjusted for demographics, smoking history, FEV₁ % predicted after bronchodilator administration, and number of visits that the participant completed, we assessed the association of BDR group: (1) consistent BDR, (2) inconsistent BDR, and (3) never BDR with asthma, CT scan features, blood eosinophil levels, and FEV₁ decline in participants without COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stage 0) and the entire cohort (participants with or without COPD).

Results

Both consistent and inconsistent ATS-BDR were associated with asthma history and greater small airways disease (%parametric response mapping functional small airways disease) relative to never ATS-BDR in participants with GOLD stage 0 disease and the entire cohort. We observed similar findings using FEV₁-BDR and FVC-BDR definitions. Eosinophils did not vary consistently among BDR groups. Consistent BDR was associated with FEV₁ decline over time relative to never BDR in the entire cohort. In participants with GOLD stage 0 disease, both the inconsistent ATS-BDR group (OR, 3.20; 95% CI, 2.21-4.66; P < .001) and consistent ATS-BDR group (OR, 9.48; 95% CI, 3.77-29.12; P < .001) were associated with progression to COPD relative to the never ATS-BDR group.

Interpretation

Demonstration of BDR, even once, describes an obstructive lung disease phenotype with a history of asthma and greater small airways disease. Consistent demonstration of BDR indicated a high risk of lung function decline over time in the entire cohort and was associated with higher risk of progression to COPD in patients with GOLD stage 0 disease.