Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from south of 04N and between 25W and 43W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends from 27N82W to 25N91W. Scattered showers are noted ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas prevail over much of the eastern half of the Gulf, especially east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found west of 90W.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will continue to move through the E Gulf through today. Fresh NW to N winds will follow the front over the NE Gulf through today before diminishing to moderate on Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with moderate to fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and Mon before diminishing.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to a 1008 mb low pres off NW Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft continues to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, affecting Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and northern Colombia. The rainfall could be locally significant, resulting in flash flooding. The moderate pressure gradient between this surface trough and high pressure over the Gulf of America allows for fresh to strong northerly winds to the west of the surface boundary, especially off Nicaragua. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh breezes and seas of 2-5 ft are found in the remainder of the NW and SE Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Nicaragua will continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend before strengthening to strong by early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front has entered the SW North Atlantic, extending from near 31N76W to 28N80W. To the southeast, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N77W to 24N81W. Farther east, a surface trough is from 31N67W to a 1014 mb low near 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of all these features, mainly W of 64W. Moderate seas and moderate to fresh winds are noted in this area.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 37N43W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present between 35W and 65W. Seas in these waters are in the moderate range. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue to move off the coast of Florida today. The front will progress across the forecast waters, with moderate to fresh winds on either side of the front north of 25N, reaching strong speeds E of the front and N of 29N by Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another weak cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to fresh winds on either side of the front.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era