Mprhgd lec6 migration

Migration
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Key areas

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Migration and its different forms
Indicators for measuring migration
Migration versus natural growth in
population change
Trends in international migration
Theories of migration
Prospects and challenges of international
migration
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Definitions:
__________________________
Migration: Geographic movement of
people across a specified boundary for
the purpose of establishing a new
permanent or semi-permanent residence (refugees are not considered as
migrants!)
1. Circular Migration: Regular pattern
of short term migration
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3. International Migration: Moves
between countries.
• Immigration :move into a new country.
• Immigrant: An international migrant who
enters the area from a place outside the
country.
• Emigration: move out of home country
• Emigrant: An international migrant
departing to another country by crossing
the international boundary
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4. Internal migration: Moves within
a country
•

In-Migration: movement into a new
politically/ geographically/ administratively
defined area within the same country�

•

In-Migrant : A person who moves into a
new area within the same country

•

Out-Migration : movement out of a
politically/ geographically/ administratively
defined area within the same country.�

•

Out-Migrant: a person who moves out of a
area within the same country
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5. Net Migration
• The net effect of immigration and
emigration (or in-migration and outmigration) on an area’s population
(increase or decrease).

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Measurement of Migration
___________________________
• Measures of Flow (rates): Number of
people moving into or out of a
country/area
• �Measures of stocks (accumulated
net migration): # of migrants already
living in a place

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II. Indicator

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• * Immigration Rate: Number of migrants
arriving at a destination per 1000
population at that destination in a given
year.�
• Emigration Rate:
• Net Migration Rate
For Emigration it is the country of origin
For net migration what?
* Note that this is a somewhat unusual rate,
since the denominator by definition
excludes the events in the numerator.
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II. Estimating net migration

__________________________
• In the absence of direct data,
generally estimated as residual
Let I = Number of in-migrants
O = Number of out-migrants
P0= Population at time 0
Pt= Population at time t
B = Number of births
D = Number of death
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Estimating net migration

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 Demographic Balancing Equation
(Residual) Method
 Net migration = (I-O)=(Pt – Po) – (B-D)
 (Population growth between two
points )- (Natural increase).
 Can give estimates by age and sex
 Cohort Component Method-From two
successive censuses-Uses life-table
survival ratios-Gives estimates by age and
sex
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Migration : Sources of data
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• Limited, incomplete and non-uniform
• Different sources:
- Censuses (birthplace, residence at
some earlier time)
- Administrative data: Arrival and
departure statistics, visa statistics
• Special surveys: Population based

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International Organizations:
-OECD: compiles and publishes data
on migration flows in the leading
industrial countries
-European Union: Publishes annual
report on foreigners living in its 15
member countries

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-UN: Publishes estimates of most of
the foreigners living in most
countries based on the data from
national governments
-UNHCR: publishes annual reports on
the # and location of refugees and
displaced persons
-ILO: Estimates the # of foreign
workers in many countries
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Measuring Migration: Problems and
issues
___________________________
• Problems in definition

- Usual residence
- Boundary
- Time reference: Different in different
countries
- Size and shape of administrative unit

• Data-Incomplete, non-uniform

• Illegal migration
13

Migration and Population
Redistribution
___________________________
• Important component of population
growth in countries involved in
overseas European expansion in the
19th and early 20th century
• Impact was small in the later part of
20th century
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Migration and Population Growth
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• Generally a much smaller component
than natural increase in net
population growth
• Becoming relatively more important
with decline in fertility in developed
countries, and in countries with small
populations with very low growth
rates
Continue
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• The contribution of migration to
population growth also depends upon
the size of stock and flow of
immigrants compared with the size
of the native population, and fertility
differentials between the native
population and migrant population

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Net Emigration Rate and
Population Growth
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• Impact of net emigration quite small for
Asia or Africa (in Africa accounted for only
1.5 per 1000 and 1.6 per 1000 reduction
of population growth in 1990-95 and
1995-2000 respectively)
• Appreciable negative effect on population
growth rate in Caribbean and in Central
America, Micronesia and Polynesia in
Oceania

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Migration
Theories and
Trends
18

International Migration: An
Overview
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• Reached all time high in terms of
absolute numbers in 1990s
• Roughly 2% of world’s population (125
million) live outside their country of
birth.
• Number is expanding by 2-4 million
annually.
Continue
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• The world ‘s migrant population is
concentrated in relatively few countries
• 71% of the countries in 1990-95 and 82%
in 1995-2000 in the world had net
migration rates between -0.5 per 1000 to
0.5 per 1000.
• Countries that experience high rates of net
emigration or immigration tend to have
small populations
• Most people never cross national borders
to live or work in another country
Continue
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• Half of the world’s migrants move from
one developing country to another.
• Countries can shift from being emigration
to immigration areas e.g. Italy, Spain, and
Korea
• Characteristics of Migrants
– No clear pattern by sex
– Young-mostly aged 20 to 40
– Often above average SES at point of
origin, below average SES at destination
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Why People Migrate: Theories

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• Early Theories : Before 1970
• Neo-classical economic theories:
1970s and 1980s
• Socio-political theories: 1990s

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Early Theories : Before 1970s (Lee,
Raven stock)
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• Before 1975: (Lee) Macro theories
which relate various features of
migration (volume, selectivity ,etc.) to
causes that are mostly demographic;
distribution of populations, distance
between locations, duration of migrant
stream etc.
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Neo-classical Theories of
Migration: 1975-85
___________________________
�Unit of Analysis: Individual

• Predictors:
–economic opportunities in the origin place
–economic opportunities in the destination
place including risk
–information
–Costs of move
• Outcomes: Decision of an individual to
migrate or not.

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Todaro’s individual cost-benefit
model
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–Migration is the outcome of a rational
evaluation of costs and benefits of
movement
–Individual is the main decision maker in
isolation from the household or community
Criticism:
• Doesn’t explain circular migration
• Trends in international migration are not
correlated with trends in relative wages
25

• Socio-political Theories of
Migration
• Unit of analysis: Multiple; individual,
families and communities
• Predictors
–Economic and political ties between
sending and destinations countries
–Individual and family history of
migration
–Ties between sending and
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destination communities

Migration: Choices�
• Individual

Families

–move or not?
–Family member abroad
–Return or not?
–Family member home
–When move?
–Decision about who moves
–With whom move?� who stays
♦ Communities: Outcomes
–Well being of sending and destination community
–Connection between communities
–Migrant-host relationship in destination
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Migration Beyond 1985: Massey
• Role of social networks: social networks at
the place of destination reduce the moving
costs through information and reduced
psychic costs. These social networks
maintain migration streams
• Risk Minimization: Households minimize
risk through labor market diversificationwage differentials not a prerequisite for
migration
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• Context factors (perception of
unemployment risks etc.)
• Multiple level of influence (individual,
household and community)

• Migration System Approach
(Fawcett and Arnold)
• Set of places linked by flows and counterflows of people
• Takes into account both ends of flow-place
of origin and place of destination in context
of all other linkages; flow of information,
goods, services and ideas, mass culture
connections, state to state relations, and
family/social networks
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• Castle and Miller: Four Stage Model
of Migration
• Stage 1: temporary labor migration
• Stage 2: Prolongation of stay and
development of social networks
• Stage 3: Increasing orientation
towards the receiving country
• Stage 4: Permanent settlement
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Migration Transition
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• Refers to a country’s evolution from
being a labor exporter to a
simultaneous labor exporter and
importer, and finally to being mostly
a labor importer.
• Examples-South Korea, Hong Kong,
Thailand, Malaysia
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International Migration: Prospects
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• No foreseeable slowing down of
current wave of international
migration witnessed in 1990s
• Uneven population and economic
growth rates, disparities in job
opportunities among countries, labor
market factors in addition to civil
strife and persecution are likely to
maintain the current trend
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International Migration: Challenges
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• For major receiving countries:
–Resistance from native population
–Integration of immigrants and their children as
fellow citizens
–Balance the need for foreign labor and the
commitment to human rights

• For major sending countries
–Flight of human capital (brain drain)

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