Australian Weather

31 Jan 2025, 11:34PM UTC

A slow-moving tropical low remains offshore from the Tropical Coast of Queensland as flooding continues. A tropical low has remained nearly stationary offshore from Queensland's Tropical Coast during much of this week. Some astounding rainfall totals exceeding 900mm were observed during the three-day period from Tuesday to Thursday over parts of the Tropical Coast. While rainfall totals temporarily eased on Friday as the tropical low shifted a bit further away from the coastline, the heavy rain is back in earnest today. Some impressive rainfall totals were observed in the Townsville area during the 24 hours to 9am today, including:  389mm at North Ward 340mm at Stony Creek 332mm at Saunders Creek The Townsville area has experienced the heaviest rainfall during the last 24 hours and this trend is expected to continue. This is because the tropical low's centre is expected to remain just to the south of Cairns and the circulation about this asymmetric low is strongest in its southeast quadrant. Particularly strong east to northeast winds will continue to converge over the Townsville Coast today, delivering the greatest tropical moisture from the Coral Sea. As of this morning, there is already moderate to major flooding generally between Bowen and Cairns. Image: Satellite and radar showing a tropical low to the south of Cairns and converging winds over the Townsville Coast. The tropical low is expected to remain a slow-moving feature over the Tropical Coast into early next week, and the potential for this tropical low to develop into a tropical cyclone is rated as very low. With heavy rainfall expected to impact the same areas day after day, there will be a risk of continued flooding from Bowen to Cairns, with a focus for additional astounding rainfall totals in the Townsville area during the next few days. Indeed, some weather models indicate an additional 1,000mm of rainfall for parts of the Tropical Coast by Tuesday morning. 

31 Jan 2025, 4:05AM UTC

A tropical cyclone could form in the Australian region by early next week as monsoon winds and several tropical lows help to kickstart the wet season in parts of northern Australia. The animation below shows widespread cloud around northern Australia on Friday. Within these vast areas of cloud are several areas of low pressure that have the potential to deepen and become more consolidated tropical lows over the coming days. Image: Enhanced water vapour satellite images showing abundant cloud near northern Australia on Friday. One area of low pressure has already caused torrential rain in parts of northern Qld this week, with close to one metre of rain falling in just three days. More heavy rain is expected to fall over northern Qld this weekend and early next week as the low pressure system continues to feed on a seemingly endless supply of tropical moisture. The Bureau of Meteorology is currently tracking six separate areas of low pressure in the Australian tropical region, all of which have potential to produce tropical lows or tropical cyclones in the coming week. The most likely area for tropical cyclone formation in the next few days will be over the Indian Ocean to the south of Christmas Island. The Bureau gives this region a high chance (55%) of producing a tropical cyclone between Monday and Thursday. The BoM also gives a moderate chance of tropical cyclone development off the northwest coast of WA and over the Coral Sea early to mid-next week. Other international forecast modelling supports the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development early next week. An ensemble model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gives a 60-70% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region by early next week. Image: Tropical cyclone strike probability, showing the likelihood that a tropical cyclone will be located within a 300 km radius from a given location and within a time window of 48 hours. Source: ECMWF At this stage, there are no clear signs that any tropical cyclones will make landfall over the Australian mainland in the coming week. However, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty regarding the location, strength and movement of these tropical lows or cyclones, so the situation may change in the coming days. Prior to this week, Australia’s northern wet season had been slow to get going in the absence of the monsoon trough in recent months. As January draws to a close, Darwin is still waiting for the monsoon to arrive in earnest in what is now going to be the city’s latest monsoon onset on record. However, heavier rain has hit northern Qld this week and more characteristic wet season rainfall should affect some other areas of northern Australia next week as well.