Global Combat Air Programme

United Kingdom & Italy (Tempest)

On 16 July 2018 during the Farnborough Airshow, then UK defence secretary Gavin Williamson publicly revealed a mock-up of 'Tempest' a BAE Systems led sixth-generation fighter programme and wider Future Combat Air System (FCAS) that would be developed to replace the RAF's Eurofighter Typhoons in the mid-to-late 2030s.^[7][8] This would be developed by an industrial consortium known as Team Tempest consisting of BAE, Rolls Royce, Leonardo, and MBDA working in conjunction with the Ministry of Defence and the Royal Air Force's Rapid Capabilities Office.^[9]

On 19 July 2019, Sweden signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the UK to work together in developing the wider FCAS needed for the future of aerial operations.^[10] on 11 September during DSEI 2019, Italy formally joined the Tempest programme.^[11][12] In 2020, Sweden and the UK 'firmed up' their MoU for FCAS and saw Sweden's SAAB establish a centre-of-excellence in the UK as part of a £50 million investment, However it was stressed that this was not an indication that Sweden or SAAB had signed onto the main Tempest effort.^[13] On the 21 December 2021, The UK, Italy, and Sweden signed a trilateral MoU for cooperation on the FCAS.^[14]

A number of new technologies were being explored for Tempest, including:^[15][16]

• Directed-energy weapons
• Augmented reality cockpit - control scheme featuring little-to-no physical controls, instead displaying features virtually on the heads up display via the pilot's helmet. This would reduce aircraft weight, improve upgradability through a software-based approach, and provide additional display space for information outside of the typical flat-screen arrangement. This also includes examinations into interactivity such as motion-control and eye-tracking.
• Biometric and psycho-analytical monitoring - exploring pilot health monitoring during combat and training to identify issues such as stress, confusion, cognitive load, as well as hypoxia or G-LOC.
• Manned-unmanned teaming - crewed aircraft like Tempest working cooperatively with uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) known as 'Adjuncts' (also known as Loyal Wingmen or Remote Weapon Carriers in other aircraft programs)
• Artificial intelligence (AI) - known as the Intelligent Virtual Assistant (IVA) that could assist with aircraft operations or data processing in certain operations or situations.

Much of the technology envisioned for use on Tempest would initially be fielded on 'Excalibur', a Boeing 757-200 modified by British firm 2Excel in conjunction with Leonardo UK to serve as a test aircraft. The aim of Excalibur is to de-risk and validate the technologies being examined for the fighter including testing the aerodynamics of the fighter's nose section and testing the aircraft's sensor suite.^[17][18] This development would also continue with a demonstrator aircraft announced in 2022 which is expected to take flight around 2027.^[19]

It was envisaged that the programme would agree to funding and manufacturing arrangements by 2025 with an expected in-service date for the aircraft in 2035.^[15]

Japan (F-X)

Japan, an island nation, has a disproportionately vast air defence identification zone given the size of its land territory, and it was expected that the country would have to protect it with a smaller fleet of fighters compared to those of its growing neighbours with much larger populations.^[20] To address this issue, the Ministry of Defence decided in 2010 that Japan's next-generation fighter had to be highly information-based, intelligent, and capable of instantaneous response (i³ fighter). At the time, the fighter fleet of the Japan Air Self-Defence Force mainly consisted of the Mitsubishi F-15J and the Mitsubishi F-2. The former is a variant of the F-15, manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (hereafter referred to as Mitsubishi) under licence, while the latter was developed by Mitsubishi and Lockheed Martin based on the F-16 in the 1990s. While the F-15J was set to be replaced by the F-35,^[21] a replacement for the F-2 needed to be found before its planned retirement in the 2030s.

Following the USA's decision not to allow the export of the F-22 Raptor to any other country in 2007, Japan began looking for a domestic solution to field a new fighter aircraft to replace its Mitsubishi F-2 fleet. From the mid-2000s Japan began funding various research programmes involved in fighter design culminating in the Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin experimental aircraft which took flight on 22 April 2016. This research and the data collected from the X-2 programme would feed the development of Japan's main fighter effort, the Mitsubishi F-X programme. The IHI Corporation completed a prototype for the XF9 engine in 2018. In 2018, after more than a decade since America's refusal to export the F-22, Lockheed Martin proposed a potential Japan-America collaboration project to develop the F-2 successor based on the F-22 and F-35, but this was rejected by Japan.^[22]

Possible Swedish, Saudi Arabian, and German membership

In late December 2022, two weeks after GCAP was announced, Japan and Sweden signed an ‘Agreement on the Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology' that would explore deeper bilateral ties between both nations.^[33] This also began speculation as to Sweden potentially becoming a member of GCAP as a means of replacing their Saab JAS 39 Gripen given that Sweden had previously been cooperating with the UK and Italy regarding the FCAS to which Tempest would have contributed.^[14][33] However, in March 2023, several industrial figures involved in GCAP placed doubt on Sweden joining GCAP with some stating that Sweden's concepts for FCAS did not align with the views of the UK or Italy.^[34]

On 11 August 2023, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia was pushing to join the programme.^[35] While the UK and Italy were reportedly open to the concept, Japan was firmly opposed, seeing Saudi membership as a complication to both further domestic efforts in allowing Japanese defence exports to foreign nations and to the overall timeline for the programme in successfully producing an in-service aircraft by 2035.^[35][36] There were also concerns from defence sources that the security of sensitive technology might be complicated by Saudi membership as well as the questionable technical contribution that the Kingdom could feasibly provide to the programme.^[35]

On 15 September, Leonardo's CEO said that Saudi Arabia would not become a core partner in GCAP, with Reuters reporting that in a response to the question of Saudi membership they said "The programme is (for) UK, Japan, Italy, that's it. There is nothing else at the moment".^[37][38]

On 1 November 2023, The Times reported on leaked rumours that Germany was considering abandoning the €100 billion Future Combat Air System; also known by its French designation SCAF (a parallel European effort to field a sixth-generation fighter design alongside other systems) with other core members France and Spain, and would instead look to join GCAP.^[39] Extensively this was due to ongoing problems within both the SCAF programme regarding intellectual property and industrial participation as well as tensions spilling over from other European programmes such as on matters of air defence and Germany's procurement of the F-35A. However, many experts were quick to point out that the complexity of the discussions for this type of programme should keep observers sceptical of such rumours. James Black from Rand Europe and Isabella Antinozzi from RUSI explained to Shepard News that this leak might potentially be a German negotiating tactic to pressure France and Spain to concede into more of Germany's demands for the programme or risk their divergence. There was also scepticism as to whether Germany would even be able to join GCAP, at least to the same level of membership they had within SCAF, especially given previous statements by GCAP industry heads.^[40][37][38]

In December 2023, a Swedish official during the International Fighter Conference announced that Sweden would not make a decision on a future fighter to replace the Gripen until 2031 following several national studies and related planning efforts.^[41][42] It was also mentioned that Sweden walked away from bilateral and trilateral discussions with the UK and Italy a year before, but did not expand on the reasons for this decision. Whilst such a decision does not rule-out future Swedish participation in GCAP, delaying membership in the programme would risk losing industrial influence over design requirements.^[34]

During the February 2024 World Defence Show in Saudi Arabia, Ahmad Al-Ohali, the governor of the Saudi government’s General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) told Breaking Defence that the kingdom remained "very keen" on participating in GCAP but stressed that this can only happen if "localisation" can occur and that Saudi Arabian industries are meaningfully involved in the program. This is seen as part of a larger national effort to ensure that at least 50% of all defence expenditure is reinvested domestically by 2030.^[43]

In late July 2024, Leonardo chief executive Roberto Cingolani said he would be “personally very open” to Saudi Arabia joining if Britain decides to reduce its commitment, “especially if there were some reallocation of resources” after the UK’s new Labour government completes its defence spending review.^[44]

At the 2024 G20 Summit in Brazil, leaders from Italy, the UK, and Japan advanced discussions on GCAP, including the potential participation of Saudi Arabia. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba focused on cooperation frameworks during the negotiations, addressing key issues such as cost-sharing and technology transfer. The talks are expected to conclude by the end of the year, with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirming that Saudi Arabia is likely to join the program.^[45]

Treaty signing & GIGO formation

On 12 September 2023, a trilateral collaboration agreement was signed between all three parties to support the long-term working arrangements and capability requirements of the programme.^[46] Three months later, on 14 December 2023, and twelve months after the initial agreement to pursue GCAP, the tri-lateral effort was cemented with the signing of an international treaty for the development of the aircraft in Tokyo. This treaty would see both the collaborative governmental headquarters and industrial hub for the effort be based in the UK, confirming earlier reports,^[37] with Japan providing the first CEO and Italy the first leader of the business entity. This would culminate in the formation of the GCAP international Government Organisation (GIGO) which would be responsible for managing the development of the fighter once the nations' respective political bodies gave their approval.^{[3][47][48][49]} The Defense of Japan 2024 white paper outlined that the GIGO would first see technical officials dispatched as technology experts and a sophisticated and secure working environment established to ensure a smooth and reliable development process for the aircraft. Meeting with the various companies and industries contributing to the programme as well consultations with representatives of each of the governments involved will take place daily either by face-to-face meetings or through video conferencing.^[50]

On 6th March 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the House of Councillors budget committee that additional defence-related export reforms would be required to reduce the production costs involved in GCAP, support Japan's national security, and to ensure that Japan can be seen internationally as a reliable defence partner. Additionally it was reported that the Prime Minister also highlighted that Italy and the UK "consider promoting the transfer of finished products to third countries to lower procurement prices as an important element of their contribution, and [they have] requested that Japan take a similar response.”^[51] On 15th March 2024, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito agreed to the revision of stringent defence export rules which would allow for the export of defence equipment, including the jointly developed fighter jet, to other countries that Japan has signed defence equipment and technology transfer deals with whilst also being free of ongoing conflict.^[52][53] However Komeito of the ruling coalition expressed reservations about the decision in line with the party's pacifist platform.^[52] In May 2024, Japan's House of Representatives, followed by the House of Councillors on June 5th 2024, approved the signing of the Tokyo treaty formally establishing the GIGO. ^[54][55]

The Defense of Japan 2024 white paper outlined Japan's revisions to its policy on the transfer of defence equipment and technology brought about by Japan's membership in GCAP. On the question of transferring the finished aircraft to third countries (countries outside of GCAP membership), the document states that joint development programmes like GCAP come with the assumption of equal contributions from all parties regarding requirements and performance and that because the UK and Italy "consider promoting the transfer of finished products to third countries an important contribution, they also expect a similar response from Japan". Therefore, to ensure this remains compatible with requirements of the UK and Italy, and that the aircraft could be exported to further reduce costs (economy of scale), a mechanism had to be created to enable such transfers. To this end, the current Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and its Implementation Guidelines originally formulated in April 2024 were revised. These revisions included guidelines covering GCAP and created "three restrictions" regarding GCAP exports:^[50]

1. At present, direct transfers between Japan of GCAP material are restricted to finished products only.
2. Transfers are restricted to nations who have signed international agreements obligating the use of Japanese defence equipment transferred in a manner consistent with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.
3. Transfers can not be made to a country where combat is currently deemed to be taking place as part of an armed conflict.

The establishment of GIGO also provided a pathway for the discussion of workshare and financial investment by the three partner nation's and their domestic industries. Two initial funding proposals have been initially reported, one with the UK and Japan each funding 40% whilst Italy would fund the remaining 20% of the programme whilst the other would see an equal distribution (33.3% each).^[54][55]

On 14 October 2024, Luke Pollard the Under-Secretary of State for Defence announced that the UK had ratified the GCAP convention to establish the GIGO in September 2024.^[56] On 12 November 2024, the Italian Parliament ratified the GCAP convention.^[57]

On 13 December 2024, the three national industrial partners for the GCAP announced the formation of business joint venture that will be accountable for the design, development, and delivery of the aircraft by the mid-2030s and throughout its expected service life beyond 2070. BAE Systems, Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co Ltd (JAIEC), and Leonardo will equally hold a 33.3% stake in the venture on behalf of the UK, Japan, and Italy respectively. The agreement will now go for approval to the national regulatory authorities before it is formally established in mid-2025, and will be headquartered in the UK alongside the GIGO.^[58][59]

Concept phase