Midterm Election Countdown: The Midwest Regional Review
October 8, 2014
By Nick Katers
The Midwest has been a hotbed of close polls and big campaign spending heading into this year's general election. Voters throughout the region will head to the polls on November 4 to choose candidates for offices ranging from local school boards to the U.S. Senate. There are a total of nine governor's mansions, 54 other state executive offices, 94 U.S. House seats, seven U.S. Senate seats, 1,604 state legislative seats, 25 statewide ballot measures, 1,259 judicial offices and 114 school board seats in the nation's largest school districts up for grabs.
Ballotpedia and Judgepedia are providing comprehensive coverage of all these elections from now to November. Click here for links to more detailed information on each race.
The highlights
Close calls for gubernatorial races
Frenzied races to governor's mansions are taking place throughout the Midwest as politicos see potential gains for their parties. The Wisconsin gubernatorial race is the third race for Gov. Scott Walker (R) since his election in 2010. He faced a recall effort in 2012 due to his support for a 2011 bill that curbed collective bargaining rights for public-employee unions. Walker will face former executive Mary Burke in the November election, and the campaign has focused on the state's recovery from recession. An average of polls by Ballotpedia shows Walker holding an average lead of less than 1 percent heading into the November showdown.
Gubernatorial elections in Illinois and Kansas have flipped the usual assumptions about politics in both states. Illinois has a heavily Democratic state legislature and a Democratic power source in Chicago, but Republican challenger Bruce Rauner has stayed close to Gov. Pat Quinn (D) into October. Rauner, a venture capitalist, spent about $14 million to win the Republican primary in March and continued spending into the fall to attack Quinn for the state's budget woes. Quinn clawed back the lead in polls in late September and early October, though the race remains close at the time of publication.
The Kansas gubernatorial race has evolved into a referendum on Gov. Sam Brownback's (R) tax and spending cuts over the past four years. Brownback's opponent, state House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D), earned the endorsement of 100 former and current Republican legislators in July 2014. These endorsers, under the name "Republicans for Kansas Values," cited substantial tax cuts advocated by Brownback, which contributed to a $340 million shortfall in tax revenue in the 2014 fiscal year.[1] Davis opened a consistent lead against Brownback in polls starting in June 2014.
U.S. Senate control hanging in the balance
A trio of U.S. Senate seats in the Midwest could help tip the balance of partisan control of the chamber heading into the next presidential election. The race to replace Sen. Tom Harkin (D) in Iowa has led to a contentious battle between Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and state Sen. Joni Ernst (R). Ernst and Braley have been close in polls throughout the summer, with Ernst gaining the lead in a Quinnipiac University poll in mid-September thanks to support from national Republican figures like Sen. Marco Rubio and Sarah Palin.[2][3][4] The U.S. Senate seat up for election in South Dakota appears headed toward a partisan flip, with former Governor Mike Rounds (R) likely to replace the outgoing Tim Johnson (D).
Republican hopes for regaining control over the Senate could depend on the results of the U.S. Senate race in Kansas. Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) narrowly won a difficult primary in August despite criticisms by primary challenger Milton Wolf for not owning a home in Kansas.[5] Independent candidate Greg Orman gained a boost to his campaign thanks to the withdrawal of Democratic candidate Chad Taylor on September 3, 2014. Orman, a businessman working in the energy industry, has been careful about responding to questions about which party would receive his support if he wins election in November. Polling in September and early October showed Orman with a growing lead as a lion's share of undecided voters flocked to the political newcomer.
Potential upheaval in state legislatures
A handful of seats could decide state legislative races in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Democratic majority in the Iowa State Senate is a mere two seats, while the State House has a Republican majority of only six seats. A total of 39 seats between the two bodies were decided by less than 10 percent in the 2012 elections, setting up a tense night for legislators in the Hawkeye State. The story is similar in Minnesota, where the Minnesota House of Representatives is controlled by the Democratic Party's 12-seat majority. The Star Tribune identified 16 seats at risk in the 2014 elections, and there were 17 seats with margins of victory under 5 percent in the 2012 elections.[6]
The Wisconsin State Senate has been passed back and forth between Republicans and Democrats over the past two decades. The chamber is currently controlled by a narrow three-seat Republican majority. Voters throughout Wisconsin will have contested senate races on their ballots as 82 percent of districts in the chamber are contested by Republican and Democratic candidates. This figure overshadows a 57.3 percent national average of state legislative seats contested by both major parties.
Teacher performance, minimum wage on the ballot
Ballot measures in Missouri and Nebraska will deal with contentious issues of evaluating teacher performance and minimum wage increases, respectively. Missouri Amendment 3 would create teacher performance evaluations used to determine employment status for teachers if approved by voters on Election Day. The measure would also prevent teachers from collectively bargaining over the implementation and content of these evaluations. Amendment 3 has drawn ample public debate, with supporters claiming that performance-based evaluations would reward successful teachers who contribute to improved academic performance.[7] Teacher associations have countered that the new evaluations would draw too heavily on standardized tests to determine teacher pay.[8]
Nebraska joins Alaska, Arkansas and South Dakota in placing minimum wage increases on the November ballot in 2014. Voter approval of Nebraska Initiative 425 would gradually raise the state's hourly minimum wage to $9 by January 1, 2016.[9] The current rate of $7.25 per hour would be increased to $8 per hour by January 1, 2015, with the $9 per hour rate achieved a year later.
State court battles
Supreme Court races in Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota present opportunities for voters to change the composition of their states' top courts. Democrats have an opportunity to take over the majority of the Michigan Supreme Court, but would need to win all three seats up for election. Republicans are looking to win re-election for two judges on the Ohio Supreme Court while the Democrats are campaigning to expand their presence on the court.
Two appointed incumbents are seeking re-election to the Minnesota Supreme Court, though their challengers are struggling to make positive impressions. Justice Wilhelmina Wright faces John Hancock, who has been almost non-existent on the campaign trail. Fellow incumbent David Lillehaug is running against Michelle L. MacDonald, who was recently acquitted of a DWI charge that earned the ire of state Republican leaders who endorsed her campaign.[10]
Regional overview
Illinois
Indiana
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Iowa
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Kansas
Michigan
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Minnesota
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Missouri
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Nebraska
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North Dakota
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Ohio
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South Dakota
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Wisconsin
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See also
Footnotes
- ↑ The Washington Post, "More than 100 Republicans endorse Democrat against Kansas Gov. Brownback (R)," July 15, 2014
- ↑ Politico, "Marco Rubio backs Joni Ernst in Iowa primary," accessed May 6, 2014
- ↑ Politico, "Marco Rubio’s Iowa play," accessed June 3, 2014
- ↑ Des Moines Register, "Sarah Palin endorses Joni Ernst in Iowa U.S. Senate race," accessed March 26, 2014
- ↑ NY Times, "Lacking a House, a Senator Is Renewing His Ties in Kansas," accessed July 14, 2014
- ↑ Star Tribune, "Minnesota House control will hinge on close contests," September 7, 2014
- ↑ Kamehameha Schools" Research and Evaluation Division, "What Do We Know about Teacher Pay-for-Performance?" November 2010
- ↑ National Education Association, "Pay Based on Test Scores?" accessed June 17, 2014
- ↑ Huffington Post, "Bill Raising Nebraska's Minimum Wage Stalls In Legislature," April 1, 2014
- ↑ StarTribune, "Supreme Court endorsee's pending DWI case surprises the GOP," June 13, 2014
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