The first UFC Pay-Per-View of the year was a highly anticipated one and it did not disappoint. Usually, the January Pay-Per-View events are some of the weaker ones, due to the promotion’s consistent efforts to stack the calendar in the fourth quarter. However, this year, the UFC 311 card turned out great on paper, and despite some last-minute changes, it was still an event of high quality. The Intuit Dome in Los Angeles also offered a different look that played out nicely on TV. Now that the event is in the rearview mirror, let’s do some matchmaking for the main card winners.
Islam Makhachev
The pound-for-pound king was originally supposed to rematch Arman Tsarukyan, but the Armenian pulled out the day before the fight due to a back injury. Renato Moicano, who already had a fight scheduled on this card, stepped in after making championship weight. For some, the extreme short-notice nature of the fight might lessen the impressiveness of what Makhachev did, but Moicano wasn’t coming off the couch. He had a full training camp in him and was on a roll, having won his previous four fights, three of which came by finish. Still, Makhachev dispatched him inside a round.
There was a lot of talk about whether this would be Makhachev’s last fight at lightweight but having had to face someone other than Tsarukyan on Saturday could keep him at 155 due to that unfinished business. However, Dana White refused to guarantee that Tsarukyan would get the next shot, and the Armenian took to social media to say he agrees that he needs to go back out there and get a win. So, who would Islam face should he stay at 155lbs? Having taken no damage in this fight, the champion should be ready to get back in the octagon as soon as Ramadan ends. The winner of Justin Gaethje and Dan Hooker will have a case, but knowing how their fighting styles, we shouldn’t expect the winner of that fight to make a quick turnaround.
That leaves us with Charles Oliveira. The former champion was originally booked to rematch Makhachev in October of 2023, but had to withdraw due to an injury and then never got his rematch. It makes sense given the circumstances and the timelines match, so I say book it now.
Makhachev’s next fight: Charles Oliveira
Merab Dvalishvili
The champion Dvalishvili came in as a sizeable betting underdog and alluded to being forced by the promotion to make the quick four-month turnaround and take this fight against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. The deck was stacked against him, but ‘The Machine’ lived up to his nickname and managed to win the last three rounds to pull away with the victory.
A monumental win for the Georgian considering the circumstances and the fact that this was by far considered his toughest assignment. With Nurmagomedov out of the way, Dvalishvili now finds himself in the spot every champion wishes to be: with nothing but rematches on the horizon against fighters he has already dominated.
The idea of a Sean O’Malley rematch has been floating out there, but that would be blatant favouritism for a champion who only had one title defence. In our UFC 311 losers matchmaker piece, we suggested an immediate rematch. That may not be in the cards, as Dana White didn’t seem high on the idea. If not, the first order of business should absolutely be Petr Yan, who earned his way back to a title shot with a successful 2024 campaign.
Dvalishvili’s next fight: Petr Yan
Jiri Prochazka
This was a fight two years in the making. When Jiri Prochazka vacated the belt, Jamahal Hill became the beneficiary of that vacancy by beating Glover Teixeira. They then both proceeded to call each other out and ‘Hill vs Prochazka’ was the fight fans were anticipating. So when Hill also had to vacate his belt, Alex Pereira was the one who benefited the most.
Both Prochazka and Hill got thoroughly beaten by Poatan, yet the hype behind the fight on Saturday did not feel diminished by that. It was a guaranteed banger that delivered. Prochazka showed improvements in his defence and ultimately finished Hill after knocking him down multiple times.
With Pereira now booked against Magomed Ankalaev in March, there is a decent chance that it will be his last title defence at light heavyweight, as he’s been hinting at a move up to heavyweight. And if he loses, he will probably get an immediate rematch. That means Prochazka will need another win to stay busy. That means no other fight makes more sense than fighting the winner of Jan Blachowicz and Carlos Ulberg in London.
Prochazka’s next fight: Blachowicz/Ulberg winner
Jailton Almeida
This was an important win for Almeida to stay relevant in the division’s top 10. Fans are hoping we get the Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall fight, but if we don’t then the picking order at heavyweight becomes a bit messy for Aspinall.
Ciryl Gane has won two straight fights, but his last win was a very uninspired performance in which he says he suffered an injury. Alexander Volkov was on a good run but lost on the cards to Gane. However controversially, it is still officially a loss. There are important fights between Sergei Pavlovich, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev coming up, but the permutations will really depend on the results of those fights.
With the title picture being as blurry as it is, Almeida isn’t lacking in options. I ultimately chose Alexander Volkov as that fight was booked last June, and with Gane probably being out a little while due to his injury, the timing probably won’t work between Almeida and the Frenchman.
Almeida’s next fight: Alexander Volkov
Reinier de Ridder
Two fights, two finishes for de Ridder so far in the UFC. The Dutch King ran through Kevin Holland at UFC 311, submitting him in just three and a half minutes. Last week, I matchmade for Cesar Almeida who scored an incredible knockout and said he should fight the winner of this RDR/Holland bout. I must admit, I didn’t necessarily expect the de Ridder to make such a statement.
With this type of performance, I fully expect the UFC to give RDR a ranked opponent next, which means the Almeida fight is off the table. Michel Pereira would make for a fun fight, but last week I had him fight Roman Kopylov and I still prefer that matchup. I believe the right fight to make is Jack Hermansson, who has been rehabilitating injuries since upsetting Joe Pyfer last February. Hermansson is the gatekeeper to the top 10 at middleweight and if de Ridder fancies himself fighting the top of that division, this is a test he needs to pass.
de Ridder’s next fight: Jack Hermansson
