Actuality of Bankruptcy Prediction Models used in Decision Support System

Authors

  • Mihaela Crăciun "Aurel Vlaicu" University of Arad Faculty of Exact Sciences
  • Dominic Bucerzan "Aurel Vlaicu" University of Arad Faculty of Exact Sciences
  • Crina Raţiu DARAMEC srl, Arad
  • Adriana Manolescu Agora University, Oradea, Romania

Keywords:

bankruptcy prediction models - BPM, multiple discriminant analysis - MDA, decision support system - DSS, crisis management

Abstract

In the current conditions, the global economy is in a crisis situation. In terms of crisis management this article supports the Romanian companies. This article analyses some classical bankruptcy prediction models used in Decision Support Systems in order to validate or invalidate them in the actual Romanian economical conditions. It is essential to take the right decision at the right time, to help the company overcome an eventual moment of crisis, such as insolvency or even bankruptcy. Our study is based on the financial ratio of 60 Romanian companies, between 2005 and 2009. The firms are classified in two categories: bankrupted companies (B) and non-bankrupted companies (N-B).

Author Biography

Mihaela Crăciun, "Aurel Vlaicu" University of Arad Faculty of Exact Sciences

"Aurel Vlaicu" University of Arad
Faculty of Exact Sciences

References

Altman, E.I.: Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, September, 589-609, 1968. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x

Pinches G., Eubank A., Mingo K. and Caruthers K.: The Hierarchical Classification of Financial Ratios, Journal of Business Research, 1975. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0148-2963(75)90011-9

Altman, E.I.: Credit Rating: Methodologies, Rationale and Default Risk, London Risk Books, 2002.

Altman E.I., Haldemon R. and Narayama P.: Zeta Analysis, Journal of Banking and Finance, 89-108, June 1977.

Anghel, I.: Falimentul - Radiografie ÅŸi Predicţie, Ed. Economică, BucureÅŸti, 2002.

SzenteÅŸi, S., Lile, R., Rusu, S., Csorba, L. and Bălan, L.: Statistică Economică, ediţia a III-a, Ed. Universităţii Aurel Vlaicu, Arad, 2011.

Bellovary J., Giacomino D., Akers M. :A Review of Bankruptcy Prediction Studies: 1930 to Present, Journal of Financial Education, Vol. 33 (Winter 2007).

Voinea, L.: Criza economica interna: cauze si solutii 23 nov 2008 http://www.zf.ro/opinii/criza-economica-interna-cauze-si-solutii-3544642.

Pisleag, A.: The Importance of Assessing the Risk of Bankruptcy Under the Current Global Crisis, Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov, Vol. 3 (52) - 2010 Series V: Economic Sciences http://but.unitbv.ro/BU2010/Series%20V/BULETIN%20V%20PDF/291%20Pisleag.pdf.

Published

2013-06-02

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Obs.: This plugin requires at least one statistics/report plugin to be enabled. If your statistics plugins provide more than one metric then please also select a main metric on the admin's site settings page and/or on the journal manager's settings pages.