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Allan Lichtman

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Allan Jay Lichtman (/ˈlɪktmən/; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973. Lichtman is best known for creating The Keys to the White House with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

Allan Lichtman
Born
Allan Jay Lichtman

(1947-04-04) April 4, 1947 (age 77)
Brooklyn, New York, U.S.
EducationBrandeis University (BA)
Harvard University (PhD)
Notable workThe Keys to the White House
Political partyDemocratic
SpouseKaryn Strickler
Children2
RelativesRonnie Lichtman (sister)
YouTube information
Channel
Years active2023–present
Subscribers162,000[1]
(Nov 2024)
Total views14 million[1]
(Nov 2024)
100,000 subscribers2024
Last updated: October 2024

The Keys to the White House is a system that uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.[2] The system and Lichtman's predictions based on it have received extensive media coverage.[3][4]

Lichtman is credited with correctly predicting the outcomes of most presidential elections from 1984 through 2020 using his interpretations of the system.[5][6][7][8] He did not predict the outcome of the Electoral College in 2000 and 2024, or the popular vote in 2016 and 2024.[8]

Lichtman ran for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland during the year of 2006; he finished sixth in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman authored the book The Case for Impeachment, which laid out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.[9][10][11]

Early life and education

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Lichtman was born in the Brownsville neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. Lichtman is Jewish.[12][13] He received his B.A. degree from Brandeis University in history in 1967. In 1973, Lichtman received his Ph.D. from Harvard University as a Graduate Prize Fellow, also in history.[14]

As a track and field athlete, Lichtman won the 1979 3000 metres steeplechase championship at the USATF Masters Outdoor Championships in the age 30-35 category, running 11:06.1 as the only listed competitor in his age group. He also finished 6th in the 1500 m that year, running 4:17.48.[15] In 2024, he produced a video with The New York Times reenacting running at a masters athletics meet while explaining his U.S. presidential prediction methodology.[16]

Career

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Teaching

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Allan Lichtman in 2010

Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, and became a full professor by 1980. He was awarded the Scholar/Teacher of the year award for the 1992-93 academic year.[17]

In the early 1980s, while living in California as a visiting professor at the California Institute of Technology, Lichtman had a 17-episode stint on the game show Tic Tac Dough. He won $100,000 on the show.[18]

The Thirteen Keys

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Lichtman is best known for the election forecasting system presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. He has correctly predicted nine of the eleven presidential elections held since 1984 by using his keys.

The system uses 13 historical factors ("keys") to predict whether the election for president of the United States will be won by the nominee of the party holding the presidency. The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, unproven methods[19] for predicting earthquakes.[20] Lichtman originally defined his model as predicting the outcome of the popular vote.[21]

In 2000, Lichtman predicted a win for the Democratic front-runner, Vice President Al Gore.[22] Gore won the popular vote, but Republican nominee George W. Bush won the Electoral College and was elected president. After the 2000 election, Lichtman argued that as his keys predicted the winner of the popular vote (which Gore won), they were successful.[23] But in journal articles containing his prediction for 2000 written beforehand, Lichtman wrote that the American people would "elect Al Gore president of the United States".[24][25] Media outlets widely considered this his only incorrect prediction until 2024.[26]

In September 2016, Lichtman predicted a win for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Trump lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president. Lichtman claimed (after the 2016 election) that since the contested result in 2000, he began predicting the outcome of the Electoral College rather than the popular vote.[27][28] The media widely credited Lichtman with a correct 2016 prediction.[5][29][6] But Lichtman also wrote in 2016, in both a book and a separate academic paper, that the keys predict only the national popular vote, not the votes of individual states.[30][31] He also wrote in 2016 that in the only three elections since 1860 when the popular vote diverged from the Electoral College tally, his keys predicted the popular vote winner.[30]

2024 presidential election

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In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, amid widening calls by Democratic Party representatives, members, voters, and supporters of President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in favor of another candidate with "better chances",[32][33] Lichtman called that demand a "foolish, destructive escapade", accusing "pundits and the media" of "pushing" Democrats into a losing choice. He added that those calling for Biden's resignation had "zero track record" of predicting election outcomes.[34]

On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race but would serve the remainder of his term.[35] Vice President Kamala Harris won the Democratic presidential nomination the next month. On September 5, 2024, Lichtman predicted that Harris would win the election.[36]

On November 6, 2024, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.[8] Lichtman admitted to being wrong and said he would address his theory's failure the next day on his YouTube channel.[37] That day, he said he had not foreseen the fall in support from Harris after her debate performance and also blamed poor planning by the Democratic Party and disinformation spread on social media for Harris's loss. He still defended his method, saying that the most recent election was an anomaly because the incumbent president withdrew a few months before the election and Trump's aggressive 11th-hour campaign stretch was much more effective with the working class and young voters than Harris's more subdued approach. Lichtman said the keys would be more accurate for more conventional elections in the future that included primaries and newer candidates.[38]

Lichtman expressed bewilderment that (roughly) 72 million Americans voted for Harris after Biden got over 81 million votes in 2020 and was surprised that misogyny appeared to be a large factor in the election.[39]

Lichthman later claimed that several unprecedented features affected the 2024 election, including the "Democrats...openly and viciously trashing their sitting president right out in public."[40] In the same interview, Lichtman claimed that the keys depended upon "a rational, pragmatic electorate," which was compromised by widespread disinformation. He cited Elon Musk as a figure who may have damaged the electorate's ability to rationally vote.[41]

Other commentary and writing

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Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.[42][43][44]

During the 2000 election, Lichtman assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida,[45] submitting his statistical analysis of balloting problems. He concluded that "there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates".[46]

In 2013, Lichtman and Richard Breitman wrote FDR and the Jews, which portrays Franklin D. Roosevelt as a pragmatic leader who, despite political constraints, made significant effort to aid Jews during World War II, balancing domestic priorities and the fear of antisemitic backlash.[47] Lichtman and Breitman received the 2013 National Jewish Book Award for the book.[48]

In 2017, Lichtman wrote The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.[9][10][11][49] The Financial Times gave it a favorable review, writing: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations."[9] The Washington Post called it "striking to see the full argument unfold".[10] New York Journal of Books recommended it as a resource "if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought".[50] The Hill wrote: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year."[51] CBC News consulted law scholars who said Lichtman's prediction of impeachment was unlikely with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives.[49] The Democratic-controlled House impeached Trump on December 18, 2019, and the Senate acquitted him on February 5, 2020.

In 2020, Lichtman published Repeal the Second Amendment, in which he argued that the only way to solve the U.S. gun violence epidemic is to repeal the Second Amendment.[52][53]

As of 2023, Lichtman hosts weekly live streams, called Lichtman Live, on his YouTube channel.[54][55]

2006 U.S. Senate race in Maryland

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Main article: 2006 United States Senate election in Maryland

Lichtman announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maryland in the 2006 election to replace Senator Paul Sarbanes; in a playful opening television ad, he pledged not to be a "conventional politician" and jumped into the C&O Canal in a business suit.[56] Lichtman was seen as a long-shot candidate with little support.[57] He criticized front-runner U.S. Representative Ben Cardin for his votes to fund the Iraq War.[57] When the League of Women Voters did not invite Lichtman to the Maryland Public Television debate, he and two other excluded candidates, Josh Rales and Dennis F. Rasmussen, protested outside the Baltimore County television studio; Lichtman and his wife were arrested after a confrontation with a security guard.[58] In 2006, both were acquitted on all charges.[59]

Lichtman lost the primary election to Cardin, receiving 6,919 votes (1.2%) and finishing sixth in a field of 18. In October 2012, The Washington Post reported that he was still paying off a mortgage he took out to help fund his campaign.[60]

Awards and honors

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Lichtman has received numerous awards from American University. Most notably, he was named Distinguished Professor of History in 2011 and Outstanding Scholar/Teacher for 1992–93, the highest faculty award at the school. Honors include:

Books

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  • Historians and the Living Past: The Theory and Practice of Historical Study (Arlington Heights, Ill.: Harlan Davidson, Inc., 1978; with Valerie French)
  • Ecological Inference (With Laura Irwin Langbein, Sage Series In Quantitative Applications In The Social Sciences, 1978)
  • Your Family History: How to Use Oral History, Personal Family Archives, and Public Documents to Discover Your Heritage (New York: Random House, 1978)
  • Prejudice and the Old Politics: The Presidential Election of 1928 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1979; Lexington Books, 2000)
  • Kin and Communities: Families In America (Edited, with Joan Challinor, Washington, D.C.: Smithsonian Press, 1979)
  • The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency: Prediction Without Polls (The Revolutionary System That Reveals How Presidential Elections Really Work From The Civil War To The 21st Century) (Lanham: Madison Books, 1990, With Ken DeCell) ISBN 978-0-8191-7008-8
  • The Keys to the White House, 1996 Edition (Lanham: Madison Books, 1996; reprint, Lexington Books Edition, 2000) ISBN 978-0-7391-0179-7
  • White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement, (Finalist for National Book Critics Circle Award in nonfiction, 2008[61]) Grove/Atlantic Press. ISBN 978-0-87113-984-9
  • FDR & the Jews, (Co-authored with Richard Breitman. Harvard University Press, 2013)[62][63][64]
  • The Case for Impeachment, HarperCollins, 2017, ISBN 0062696823
  • The Embattled Vote in America: From the Founding to the Present, Harvard University Press, 2018.
  • Repeal the Second Amendment: The Case for a Safer America, St. Martin's Press, 2020, ISBN 9781250244406[65]
  • Thirteen Cracks: Repairing American Democracy after Trump, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021, ISBN 9781538156513

References

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  1. ^ a b "About Allan Lichtman". YouTube.
  2. ^ "The Keys to the White House", Madison Books, 1996, ISBN 1568330618
  3. ^ Cillizza, Chris (Dec 31, 2016), "The professor who called the 2016 election was a giant Internet sensation", The Washington Post, retrieved 2024-10-17
  4. ^ Pitofsky, Marina (October 3, 2024). "Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says 2024 pick set off 'avalanche'". USA Today. Retrieved 2024-10-17.
  5. ^ a b Padilla, Ramon (Oct 2, 2024). "Historian's election prediction system is (almost) always correct. Here's how it works". USA Today. Retrieved 2024-10-17.
  6. ^ a b Medeiros, Lauren (October 7, 2020). "This Historian Has a Fool-Proof System for Predicting the Next President". brandeis.edu. Brandeis University. Retrieved 2020-10-25.
  7. ^ Edelman, Gilad (2024-10-16). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-10-16.
  8. ^ a b c "Trump wins the White House in political comeback rooted in appeals to frustrated voters". AP News. 2024-11-05. Retrieved 2024-11-06.
  9. ^ a b c Luce, Edward (April 20, 2017), "The case for impeaching Donald Trump", Financial Times, archived from the original on December 11, 2022, retrieved June 5, 2017
  10. ^ a b c Lozada, Carlos (April 13, 2017), "The case for impeaching President Donald J. Trump. (Too soon?)", The Washington Post, retrieved June 5, 2017
  11. ^ a b Willis, Jay (April 17, 2017), "The Trump Impeachment Is Coming Soon, Says Allan Lichtman", GQ magazine, retrieved June 5, 2017
  12. ^ "Jewish Prof. who called every election since 1984 predicts Biden will win". The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com. November 2, 2020.
  13. ^ Lichtman, Allan; Vittert, Liberty; Meng, Xiao-Li (July 15, 2020). "Post-Election Interview With Allan Lichtman". Harvard Data Science Review. 2 (4). doi:10.1162/99608f92.baaa8f68/989cfb74 – via hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu.
  14. ^ "Curriculum Vitae: Allan J. Lichtman" (PDF). Retrieved 2018-03-14.
  15. ^ "1979 USA Masters Outdoor Championships" (PDF). mastershistory.org. p. 3. Retrieved 5 September 2024.
  16. ^ "He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion". The New York Times. 5 September 2024. Retrieved 5 September 2024.
  17. ^ "Allan J. Lichtman". Sage Publishing. Retrieved 2024-10-23.
  18. ^ Breslev, Dia, "AU Prof Gets the 'Dough Lichtman Wins $100,000," American University Eagle, February 27, 1981.
  19. ^ "Information about the Keilis-Borok California Earthquake Prediction". Archived from the original on 2009-04-12.
  20. ^ Lichtman, Allan (2 June 2008). "The 13 Keys to the White House". INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics. doi:10.1287/LYTX.2008.03.01.
  21. ^ Lichtman (1990), The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, p. 6: "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote"
  22. ^ Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. 64 (6): 376–377. "Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States."
  23. ^ Joseph Jaffe, Allan Lichtman (18 Nov 2020). The Keys to the White House - Distinguished Professor, Allan Lichtman (YouTube streaming video). Event occurs at 32m03s.
  24. ^ Allan J. Lichtman (1999). "The Keys to Election 2000". Social Education. 63 (7): 422.
  25. ^ Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. 64 (6): 376–377. "Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States."
  26. ^ Robeldo, Anthony (November 7, 2024). "'I admit I was wrong': Allan Lichtman explains why his election prediction failed". USA Today. Archived from the original on November 8, 2024. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  27. ^ Allan Lichtman (2024-05-02). Has the campus unrest ended??? | Lichtman Live #46. Retrieved 2024-10-28 – via YouTube.
  28. ^ Allan Lichtman (2024-04-18). Ukraine Aid... What's at Stake?!?! | Lichtman Live #44. Retrieved 2024-10-28 – via YouTube.
  29. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (2020-08-05). "He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-08-05.
  30. ^ a b Allan J. Lichtman (2016). Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. p. Introduction xi. The keys to the White House focus on national concerns such as economic performance, policy initiatives, social unrest, presidential scandal, and successes and failures in foreign affairs. Thus, they predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states. Indeed, no system could have predicted the 537 vote margin for George W. Bush in Florida that decided the 2000 election. In three elections since 1860, where the popular vote diverged from the electoral college tally—1876 (when Democrat Samuel J. Tilden won the popular vote, but lost in the electoral college to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes), 1888, and 2000—the keys accurately predicted the popular vote winner..
  31. ^ Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258. As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.
  32. ^ Wong, Scott; Vitali, Ali; Kaplan, Rebecca (July 19, 2024). "13 more Democrats, including Pelosi allies, call for Biden to exit 2024 election". NBC News. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  33. ^ Irwin, Lauren (July 19, 2024). "Major Democratic donor tells Biden to choose 'vanity or virtue'". The Hill. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  34. ^ "'Foolish, self-destructive escapade': History professor slams Democrats pushing for Biden to drop out". CNN. July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  35. ^ "Biden abruptly changed his mind about staying in 2024 race on Sunday, source says". Reuters. July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  36. ^ Tait, Robert (2024-09-05). "Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman". The Guardian.
  37. ^ Mastrangelo, Dominick (6 November 2024). "Allan Lichtman takes shot at Nate Silver after Donald Trump victory". The Hill.
  38. ^ Robledo, Anthony (6 November 2024). "'I admit I was wrong': Allan Lichtman explains why his election prediction failed". USA Today. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  39. ^ Lichtman, Allan. "What... Happened... | Lichtman Live #87". YouTube Channel of Allan Lichtman. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  40. ^ "Video: 'I was wrong': Professor Lichtman on why his election prediction missed". CNN Politics.
  41. ^ Mastrangelo, Dominick (November 12, 2024). "Allan Lichtman blames disinformation, Musk for Harris prediction". The Hill (newspaper).
  42. ^ "Fox News broadcast". Fox News. 24 March 2015. Archived from the original on September 24, 2015.
  43. ^ "MSNBC broadcast". NBC News.
  44. ^ "CNN broadcast". YouTube.[dead YouTube link]
  45. ^ "Voting Irregularities in Florida During the 2000 Presidential Election". U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. June 2001. Archived from the original on September 23, 2006. Retrieved September 27, 2006.
  46. ^ "Supplemental Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida's 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the United States Senate Committee on Rules in July 2001". U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. July 2001. Archived from the original on September 24, 2006. Retrieved September 27, 2006.
  47. ^ Breitman, Richard (19 March 2013). Amazon.com. Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0674050266.
  48. ^ "Harvard University Press: FDR and the Jews", Hup.Harvard.edu
  49. ^ a b Kwong, Matt (April 18, 2017), "Analysis - 'Prediction prof' who called Trump's win now predicts his impeachment, but scholars aren't convinced", CBC News, retrieved June 5, 2017
  50. ^ Smilke Jr., Basil (April 17, 2017), "The Case for Impeachment", New York Journal of Books, retrieved June 5, 2017
  51. ^ Budowsky, Brent (April 20, 2017), "How far is too far? The Trump impeachment debate begins now.", The Hill, retrieved June 5, 2017
  52. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (August 6, 2019), "Repeal the Second Amendment to save Americans from gun violence'", The Hill
  53. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (June 24, 2022), "The Supreme Court and the Second Amendment hoax", New York Daily News
  54. ^ "Channel:@AllanLichtmanYouTube". YouTube. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  55. ^ Lichtman, Allan (July 20, 2023). "Twitter Post". Twitter.
  56. ^ Ann Marimow, Lichtman's Big Splash, The Washington Post (March 10, 2006).
  57. ^ a b Matthew Mosk & John Wagner, Long-Shot Candidates May Harm Cardin, The Washington Post (July 24, 2006).
  58. ^ Stephanie Desmon (August 31, 2006). "Excluded Candidates Cry Foul on Debate". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on June 22, 2021.
  59. ^ Allan Lichtman, Karyn Strickler, acquitted in 2006 TV studio incident, The Washington Post (September 1, 2006). [dead link]
  60. ^ Reilly, Corinne (October 2, 2012). "In congressional races, underdogs abound, but why". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 5, 2012.
  61. ^ a b "National Book Critics Circle: 2008 Nonfiction Finalist White Protestant Nation, by Allan J. Lichtman – Critical Mass Blog". Archived from the original on February 19, 2009.
  62. ^ Schuessler, Jennifer (March 8, 2013). "Book 'FDR and the Jews' Looks at Roosevelt-Holocaust Issues". The New York Times.
  63. ^ Zuckerman, Laurence (17 July 2013). "FDR's Jewish Problem". The Nation.
  64. ^ Oshinsky, David (April 5, 2013). "'FDR and the Jews,' by Richard Breitman and Allan J. Lichtman". The New York Times.
  65. ^ "Repeal the Second Amendement by Allan J. Lichtman". Kirkus Reviews.
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