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'''Oil megaprojects''' are large [[oil field]] projects to bring a significant amount of new oil production capacity to market. Tabulations of all oil megaprojects are used in an attempt to forecast whether future oil supply will be adequate to meet demand for oil , or whether the world is reaching [[Peak Oil]]. As such, oil megaproject analysis has been controversial. This approach to oil forecasting is also known as the "bottom-up" approach, in that it relies on building a detailed model of where and when new oil production capacity will come on line.
'''Oil megaprojects''' are large [[oil field]] projects to bring a significant amount of new oil production capacity to market. Tabulations of all oil megaprojects are used in an attempt to forecast whether future global oil supply will be adequate to meet demand for oil , or whether the world is reaching [[Peak Oil]]. As such, oil megaproject analysis has been controversial. This approach to oil forecasting is also known as the "bottom-up" approach, in that it relies on building a detailed model of where and when new oil production capacity will come on line.


In a series of studies reported in the media, the energy consultancy [[Cambridge Energy Research Associates]] (CERA) argued and again in 2006 that based on an analysis of 360 projects, global oil production capacity might increase to 110 mbd.<ref>{{cite news
In a series of studies reported in the media, the energy consultancy [[Cambridge Energy Research Associates]] (CERA) argued in May 2005 that oil production capacity would increase by as much as 16 million barrels per day (mbd) between 2004 and 2010 - almost a 20% increase. <ref>{{cite news
|url= http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-798_ITM
|title= LIQUIDS CAPACITY SET TO CONTINUE EXPANSION TO 2010 AND BEYOND
}}</ref> They suggested this might lead to an excess of supply over demand by as much as 7.5mbd, which could lower prices. In a July 2005 Op-Ed in the Washington Post, CERA President [[Daniel Yergin]] asserted based on the "large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years", that "the growing production capacity will take the air out of the fear of imminent shortage."<ref>{{cite news
|url= http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/29/AR2005072901672.html
|title= It's Not the End Of the Oil Age, Washington Post, 7/31/05
}}</ref>
Again in 2006, CERA concluded based on an analysis of 360 projects that global oil production capacity might increase to 110 mbd by 2015.<ref>{{cite news
|url= http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-701_ITM
|url= http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-701_ITM
|title= Expansion Set to Continue: Global Liquids Capacity to 2015
|title= Expansion Set to Continue: Global Liquids Capacity to 2015

Revision as of 05:57, 12 December 2007

Template:Future


Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects to bring a significant amount of new oil production capacity to market. Tabulations of all oil megaprojects are used in an attempt to forecast whether future global oil supply will be adequate to meet demand for oil , or whether the world is reaching Peak Oil. As such, oil megaproject analysis has been controversial. This approach to oil forecasting is also known as the "bottom-up" approach, in that it relies on building a detailed model of where and when new oil production capacity will come on line.

In a series of studies reported in the media, the energy consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) argued in May 2005 that oil production capacity would increase by as much as 16 million barrels per day (mbd) between 2004 and 2010 - almost a 20% increase. [1] They suggested this might lead to an excess of supply over demand by as much as 7.5mbd, which could lower prices. In a July 2005 Op-Ed in the Washington Post, CERA President Daniel Yergin asserted based on the "large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years", that "the growing production capacity will take the air out of the fear of imminent shortage."[2] 

 Again in 2006, CERA concluded based on an analysis of 360 projects that global oil production capacity might increase to 110 mbd by 2015.[3]


Significant is defined here as capable of producing at least 10,000 barrels of oil per day. This list of megaprojects completes this list of oil fields from the past and present. Maintaining an updated list of future oil projects is key to the forecasting of future oil supply, and assessing the date and seriousness of peak oil.

Application to Oil Supply Forecasting

Because oil production is highly hierarchical and the observed oilfield size distribution is well described by a Parabolic fractal distribution[4]. It means that a handful of few giant and super-giant oilfields are providing almost half of the world production[5]. Therefore, it is generally convenient to gather information only on a few large projects and then model the depletion from the rest of the resource base composed of small oilfields.

File:50081787 b6a15263d3 o.png
Number of oil fields discovered per decades grouped by average flow rates (left) and corresponding oil volumes (right) in giga-barrels (Gb). Data taken from the annexe B of "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons[5].

Production from Fields Under Development

Production from Fields In Production

The most important variable is the average decline rate for Fields in Production (FIP) which is difficult to assess[citation needed].

Existing Databases

[6][7][8][9][10][11]

Oil Megaproject Summary

Note: The tables below are under construction.

Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OPEC
Algeria 30 80 0 50 0 150 121 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Angola 0 250 325 425 530 510 175 275 405 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Indonesia 0 200 0 50 10 40 0 165 30 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iran 55 85 190 260 320 425 0 260 85 250 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iraq 0 0 0 0 0 190 700 340 300 440 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kuwait 0 0 300 60 60 210 0 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Libya 75 150 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nigeria 125 0 225 390 0 525 175 554 125 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Qatar 0 30 45 230 0 295 570 40 295 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saudi Arabia 0 690 0 300 790 668 1270 0 900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UAE 0 0 0 290 150 135 200 60 155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Venezuela 0 0 0 0 0 75 600 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 285 1485 1085 2055 1870 3223 3811 2134 2295 1275 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non-OPEC
Australia 0 200 85 100 115 140 0 96 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 752 0 260 0 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brazil 0 250 300 340 610 475 85 180 960 500 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Canada 100 0 90 0 124 680 200 480 50 920 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chad 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China 0 0 0 0 0 245 35 0 0 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Congo 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
East Timor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Egypt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eq. Guinea 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
India 0 0 0 0 0 0 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ivory Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kazakhstan 100 0 0 250 0 445 120 0 300 1010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Malaysia 60 0 0 0 120 40 0 100 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mauritania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mexico 0 0 0 0 230 750 173 0 51 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norway 115 0 126 45 295 0 70 200 85 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oman 0 0 0 0 0 0 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Peru 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Russia 0 120 405 60 425 640 363 200 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sudan 0 0 0 285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Syria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thailand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trinidad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK 0 30 60 0 230 175 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
USA 165 222 110 0 0 375 285 180 0 120 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vietnam 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 540 882 1176 1892 2149 4265 1701 1686 1486 3339 0 240 0 0 0 0 0 0

Detailed Table of Projects per Year

Notes

  1. ^ See note 4 below
  2. ^ Scenarios come from ref 8 with high case being 240kbpd with first oil 7/1/06, and low case being 140kbpd starting six months later - in both cases I have a twelve month ramp-up
  3. ^ High case is as-per refs with 18 mo estimate from first oil to full 200kbpd. Low case involves hurricanes causing 1 yr delay and 20% average reduced capacity.
  4. ^ Max capacity of the platform appears small compared to 2P, so both cases pump at peak thru 2015. High case starts 3/1/06 (following hurricane delay), while low case starts six months later
  5. ^ Now delayed till mid 2008. 205kbpd figure includes condensate. Low case adds another year of delay, and lowers plateau to 160kbpd
  6. ^ Petrobras states when the FPSO Cidade de Vitória is fully set up, production should reach 200 kbbl/d with 4 oil-producing wells, in 2008.
  • Koppelaar, Rembrandt (2007). "The Shape of Oil to Come". The Oil Drum.
  • "A Megaproject list from the Oil and Gas Journal". The Oil Drum. 2006.
  • Mearns, Euan (2006). "Is a Wall of Oil Heading for the Market?". The Oil Drum.
  • "Major Oil & Gas Fields". Triple Diamond Energy Corporation. December 2007.


References

  1. ^ "LIQUIDS CAPACITY SET TO CONTINUE EXPANSION TO 2010 AND BEYOND".
  2. ^ "It's Not the End Of the Oil Age, Washington Post, 7/31/05".
  3. ^ "Expansion Set to Continue: Global Liquids Capacity to 2015".
  4. ^ Laherrère J.H. 2000: " Distribution of field sizes in a Petroleum System: lognormal, parabolic fractal or stretched exponential?" Marine and Petroleum Geology 17/4, April, p539-546
  5. ^ a b Simmons, Matthew (2005). Twilight in the Desert. Wiley. p. 448. ISBN 978-0-471-73876-3.
  6. ^ Skrebowski, Chris (2007-02). "New capacity fails to boost 2006 production" (PDF). Petroleum Review. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  7. ^ Skrebowski, Chris (2006-04). "Prices holding steady, despite massive planned capacity additions" (PDF). Petroleum Review. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ "Industry Projects". Offshore Technology. viewed December 5, 2007. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ^ "Field Development Projects". RIGZONE. viewed December 5, 2007. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  10. ^ Gerdes, John (September 25, 2006). "Energy Insight" (PDF). SunTrust Robinson Humphrey (Gerdes Group).
  11. ^ Gerdes, John (February 6, 2007). "Energy Insight" (PDF). SunTrust Robinson Humphrey (Gerdes Group).

Footnotes

See also

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