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[[Resignation from the British House of Commons|MPs cannot resign]] in form; instead Members of Parliament wishing to vacate their seats are appointed to one of two nominally paid posts which are regarded as [[office of profit|offices of profit]] under the Crown. Therefore Chris Huhne was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the [[Chiltern Hundreds]] on 5 February 2013 by the [[Chancellor of the Exchequer]] and ceased to be a Member of Parliament.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_07_13.htm |title=Press Notice - Three Hundreds of Chiltern |publisher=[[HM Treasury]] |date=5 February 2013 |accessdate=5 February 2013}}</ref>
[[Resignation from the British House of Commons|MPs cannot resign]] in form; instead Members of Parliament wishing to vacate their seats are appointed to one of two nominally paid posts which are regarded as [[office of profit|offices of profit]] under the Crown. Therefore Chris Huhne was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the [[Chiltern Hundreds]] on 5 February 2013 by the [[Chancellor of the Exchequer]] and ceased to be a Member of Parliament.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_07_13.htm |title=Press Notice - Three Hundreds of Chiltern |publisher=[[HM Treasury]] |date=5 February 2013 |accessdate=5 February 2013}}</ref>

Counting will take place overnight on Thursday 28 February, with a result expected around 2am on 1 March.<ref name=Brogan-Telegraph>{{cite web|last=Brogan|first=Benedict|title=Eastleigh by-election: today's poll could be dangerous for the Coalition|url=http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100204613/eastleigh-by-election-todays-poll-could-be-dangerous-for-the-coalition/|publisher=The Telegraph|accessdate=28 February 2013}}</ref>


==Candidates and the campaign==
==Candidates and the campaign==
The Statement of Persons nominated was published on 13 February and confirmed 14 candidates for the by-election.<ref>http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/Docs/StatementofPersonsNominatedNOPandPolling%20Stations2013.doc</ref>
The Statement of Persons Nominated was published on 13 February and confirmed 14 candidates for the by-election.<ref>http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/Docs/StatementofPersonsNominatedNOPandPolling%20Stations2013.doc</ref>
<!--
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Note to editors: It is an established Wikipedia convention that candidates are listed in alphabetical order of surname - ballot paper order.
Note to editors: It is an established Wikipedia convention that candidates are listed in alphabetical order of surname - ballot paper order.
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The [[English Democrats]] are fielding Michael Walters, the South East Area Secretary of the party.
The [[English Democrats]] are fielding Michael Walters, the South East Area Secretary of the party.

The Christian Party candidate is Kevin Milburn. He said "I am standing in this election to allow voters the opportunity to show their disapproval of this Government over many issues, including their attack on marriage. The Government has upset vast swathes of the population with this ill-conceived Bill."<ref>[http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/elections/eastleigh_2013/news/10248626.Kevin_Milburn___Christian_Party___VIDEO/]</ref>


The [[Monster Raving Loony Party]], which stood in the 1994 by-election, has announced it will be standing its leader [[Howling Laud Hope]] as its candidate.<ref name=LoonyParty>{{cite web|url=https://twitter.com/LoonyPartyNews/status/299226663470903296|title=Twitter / LoonyPartyNews|date=6 February 2013|publisher=[[Official Monster Raving Loony Party]]}}</ref>
The [[Monster Raving Loony Party]], which stood in the 1994 by-election, has announced it will be standing its leader [[Howling Laud Hope]] as its candidate.<ref name=LoonyParty>{{cite web|url=https://twitter.com/LoonyPartyNews/status/299226663470903296|title=Twitter / LoonyPartyNews|date=6 February 2013|publisher=[[Official Monster Raving Loony Party]]}}</ref>
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| 22–24 Feb || [http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/25/new-ashcroft-eastleigh-poll-has-the-lds-5-percent-ahead/ Populus/The Times] || 1,002 || style="background:#FEE4AF"|'''33%''' || 28% || 21% || 12% || 6% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| 5%
| 22–24 Feb || [http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/25/new-ashcroft-eastleigh-poll-has-the-lds-5-percent-ahead/ Populus/The Times] || 1,002 || style="background:#FEE4AF"|'''33%''' || 28% || 21% || 12% || 6% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| 5%
|-
|-
|21–22 Feb || [http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7047 Populus/Sunday Times] || 1,001 || style="background:#FEE4AF" |'''33%''' || 28% || 21% || 11% || 4% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| 5%
| 22 Feb || [http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10250726.Eastleigh_too_close_to_call/ Daily Echo]<sup>'''1'''</sup> || 1,000 || style="background:#FEE4AF" |'''21.9%''' || 21.5% || 17.9% || 11.8% || 4.9% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| 0.4%
|-
|21–22 Feb || [http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7047 Populus/Sunday Times]<sup>'''2'''</sup> || 1,001 || style="background:#FEE4AF" |'''33%''' || 28% || 21% || 11% || 4% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| 5%
|-
|''*21–22 Feb'' || [http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7047 Populus/Sunday Times]<sup>'''3'''</sup> || ''1,001'' || style="background:#FEE4AF" | ''31%'' || ''26%'' || ''25%'' || ''12%'' || ''6%'' || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| ''5%''
|-
|-
|18–22 Feb || [http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Final-Eastleigh-Report.pdf Survation/Mail on Sunday] || 543 || 29% || style="background:#B3E0FF"| '''33%''' || 21% || 13% || 4% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 4%
|18–22 Feb || [http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Final-Eastleigh-Report.pdf Survation/Mail on Sunday] || 543 || 29% || style="background:#B3E0FF"| '''33%''' || 21% || 13% || 4% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 4%
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| style="background:#D5D5D5"|'''6 May''' ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/default.stm 2010 Results (Eastleigh only)] ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| ''53,650'' || style="background:#FEE4AF" | '''46.5%''' ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| 39.3% || style="background:#D5D5D5"| 3.6% ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| 9.6% ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| 1.0% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| '''7.2%'''
| style="background:#D5D5D5"|'''6 May''' ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/default.stm 2010 Results (Eastleigh only)] ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| ''53,650'' || style="background:#FEE4AF" | '''46.5%''' ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| 39.3% || style="background:#D5D5D5"| 3.6% ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| 9.6% ||style="background:#D5D5D5"| 1.0% || style="background:#FDBB30; color:black;"| '''7.2%'''
|}
|}

<small><sup>'''1'''</sup></small><small> This poll has been carried out by the Southern Daily Echo Newspaper. It includes 'won't vote' which was polled at 22%.</small>

<small><sup>'''2'''</sup> This row reports the topline figures given by Populus using their standard method that includes an adjustment for those responding "don't know" based on how they voted at the 2010 General Election.

<sup>'''3'''</sup> This row is based on the same Populus poll as above, but simply excludes all those responding "don't know", an alternate approach considered by some reports.<ref>[http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/support-grows-for-eastleigh-ukip-candidate-8508254.html]</ref><ref>[
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/02/ukip-surge-in-eastleigh/]</ref><br />
</small>


==Previous election==
==Previous election==

Revision as of 22:15, 28 February 2013

Eastleigh by-election, 2013
← 2010 28 February 2013
The Eastleigh seat in the House of Commons.
Triggered by vacation of seat by incumbent
     
   
MP before election

Chris Huhne
Liberal Democrats

Subsequent MP

TBD

The Eastleigh by-election, 2013 is a forthcoming parliamentary by-election for the United Kingdom House of Commons constituency of Eastleigh in Hampshire. It will be held on Thursday, 28 February 2013.[1]

The seat became vacant on the official resignation of Liberal Democrat Member of Parliament (MP) Chris Huhne, who announced his intention to resign on 4 February, following his guilty plea to a charge of perverting the course of justice.[2]

MPs cannot resign in form; instead Members of Parliament wishing to vacate their seats are appointed to one of two nominally paid posts which are regarded as offices of profit under the Crown. Therefore Chris Huhne was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds on 5 February 2013 by the Chancellor of the Exchequer and ceased to be a Member of Parliament.[3]

Counting will take place overnight on Thursday 28 February, with a result expected around 2am on 1 March.[4]

Candidates and the campaign

The Statement of Persons Nominated was published on 13 February and confirmed 14 candidates for the by-election.[5]

Eastleigh by-election, 2013
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Wessex Regionalist Colin Bex
Elvis Loves Pets David Bishop
Peace Jim Duggan
Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party Ray Hall
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope
Conservative Maria Hutchings
UKIP Diane James
NHA Iain Maclennan
Christian Kevin Milburn
Labour John O'Farrell
TUSC Daz Procter
Independent Danny Stupple
Liberal Democrats Mike Thornton
English Democrat Michael Walters
Majority
Turnout 0 0

The defending party, the Liberal Democrats, nominated Eastleigh Borough Council councillor Mike Thornton.[6][7]

Maria Hutchings, the Conservative's candidate at the General Election, was chosen as the candidate for the by-election on 7 February.[8] Hutchings came to prominence in 2005 when she interrupted a live television phone-in with the then Prime Minister Tony Blair.[9] She says that she would vote for Britain to leave the EU and would have voted against gay marriage.[10] She also identifies as "pro-life" and says that she is not a "Tory toff".

The Labour Party chose author and broadcaster John O'Farrell as its candidate on 12 February.[11][12]

UKIP selected candidate Diane James, a Councillor from Ewhurst in Waverley, Surrey, who was elected there as an independent.[13][14][15][16] The party's leader, Nigel Farage, previously contested the seat at a by-election in 1994.[17][18][19] While he initially said he would consider standing again, he decided not to after much media speculation.[20]

The English Democrats are fielding Michael Walters, the South East Area Secretary of the party.

The Christian Party candidate is Kevin Milburn. He said "I am standing in this election to allow voters the opportunity to show their disapproval of this Government over many issues, including their attack on marriage. The Government has upset vast swathes of the population with this ill-conceived Bill."[21]

The Monster Raving Loony Party, which stood in the 1994 by-election, has announced it will be standing its leader Howling Laud Hope as its candidate.[22]

On 8 February, the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition announced that it had chosen Darren Procter, secretary of the Southampton Shipping branch of the RMT union, as their candidate.[23] Procter also serves on the National Executive Committee of RMT. He is standing on an anti-austerity platform.

The National Health Action Party, a new party founded in 2012 in response to the Coalition Government's healthcare reforms, has selected Dr Iain Maclennan, a local doctor and former Royal Navy medical officer, as their candidate.[24]

Independent candidate Danny Stupple is standing in protest at gay marriage and what he describes as the party "machine" pushing it through Parliament.[25]

The Wessex Regionalist Party is fielding the party's president, Colin Bex, as its candidate.

Polling

Date(s)
conducted a		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lib Dem Cons UKIP Lab <span style="color:White;">Others]] Lead
28 Feb Eastleigh by-election, 2013 Result - - - - - - -
22–24 Feb Populus/The Times 1,002 33% 28% 21% 12% 6% 5%
22 Feb Daily Echo1 1,000 21.9% 21.5% 17.9% 11.8% 4.9% 0.4%
21–22 Feb Populus/Sunday Times2 1,001 33% 28% 21% 11% 4% 5%
*21–22 Feb Populus/Sunday Times3 1,001 31% 26% 25% 12% 6% 5%
18–22 Feb Survation/Mail on Sunday 543 29% 33% 21% 13% 4% 4%
6–8 Feb Survation/Mail on Sunday 504 36% 33% 16% 13% 2% 3%
4–5 Feb Populus 1,006 31% 34% 13% 19% 3% 3%
6 May 2010 Results (Eastleigh only) 53,650 46.5% 39.3% 3.6% 9.6% 1.0% 7.2%

1 This poll has been carried out by the Southern Daily Echo Newspaper. It includes 'won't vote' which was polled at 22%.

2 This row reports the topline figures given by Populus using their standard method that includes an adjustment for those responding "don't know" based on how they voted at the 2010 General Election.

3 This row is based on the same Populus poll as above, but simply excludes all those responding "don't know", an alternate approach considered by some reports.[26][27]

Previous election

Election Political result Candidate Party Votes % ±%
General election 2010[28]
Turnout: 53,650 (69.3%) +4.9		Liberal Democrats hold
Majority: 3,864 (7.2%)
Swing: 3.0% from Con to Lib Dem 		Chris HuhneLiberal Democrats24,96646.5+8.2
Maria Hutchings Conservative21,10239.3+2.1
Leo Barraclough Labour5,1539.6−11.5
Ray Finch UKIP1,9333.6+0.2
Tony Pewsey English Democrat2490.5N/A
Dave Stone Independent1540.3N/A
Keith Low National Liberal Party - Third Way930.2N/A

References

  1. ^ "Date set for Eastleigh by-election". BBC. 6 February 2013. Retrieved 6 February 2013.
  2. ^ "Chris Huhne admits perverting the course of justice". BBC. 4 February 2013.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  3. ^ "Press Notice - Three Hundreds of Chiltern". HM Treasury. 5 February 2013. Retrieved 5 February 2013.
  4. ^ Brogan, Benedict. "Eastleigh by-election: today's poll could be dangerous for the Coalition". The Telegraph. Retrieved 28 February 2013.
  5. ^ http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/Docs/StatementofPersonsNominatedNOPandPolling%20Stations2013.doc
  6. ^ "Profile - Cllr. Mike Thornton". Eastleigh Borough Council. Retrieved 10 February 2010.
  7. ^ "Eastleigh by-election: Mike Thornton chosen as Lib Dem candidate". BBC. 9 February 2013.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  8. ^ "Eastleigh by-election: Maria Hutchings to stand for Conservatives". BBC. 7 February 2013. Retrieved 7 February 2013.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  9. ^ "The moment the Tories' Eastleigh candidate ambushed Tony Blair". Political Scrapbook. 8 February 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  10. ^ Tweedie, Neil; Dominiczak, Peter (8 February 2013). "Eastleigh by-election: Why Eastleigh could soon turn beastly". The Daily Telegraph.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  11. ^ Eastleigh - The Shortlist LabourList
  12. ^ Ferguson, Mark (7 February 2013). "Labour's selection Timetable for Eastleigh announced".{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  13. ^ Profile - Councullor Diane James Waveney Borough Council
  14. ^ "Diane James, our choice for Eastleigh". UKIP. 11 February 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  15. ^ [1]
  16. ^ [2]
  17. ^ Landale, James (4 February 2012). "Huhne triggers coalition by-election battle". BBC. Retrieved 6 February 2013.
  18. ^ Farage, Nigel (5 February 2013). "Why I will not fight the Eastleigh by-election". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 6 February 2013.
  19. ^ Maddox, David (4 February 2013). "Nigel Farage to decide on Eastleigh by-election". The Scotsman. Retrieved 6 February 2013.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  20. ^ Hope, Christopher (5 February 2013). "Exclusive: Nigel Farage will not fight Chris Huhne seat". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 6 February 2013.
  21. ^ [3]
  22. ^ "Twitter / LoonyPartyNews". Official Monster Raving Loony Party. 6 February 2013.
  23. ^ "RMT executive member Darren Procter to stand in Eastleigh by-election". Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition. 8 February 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  24. ^ "Former Local Lib Dem activist and ex-NHS chief defects to National Health Action Party". National Health Action Party. 10 February 2013. Retrieved 11 February 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  25. ^ [4]
  26. ^ [5]
  27. ^ [ http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/02/ukip-surge-in-eastleigh/]
  28. ^ "Statement of persons nominated, notice of poll and situation of polling stations" (PDF). Eastleigh Borough Council. 20 April 2010. Retrieved 6 February 2013.


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