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'Environmental migrant' is a controversial concept which has increased in currency and generated considerable discussion in the 2000s as policy-makers, environmental and social scientists attempt to conceptualise the potential societal ramifications of climate change and general environmental degradation. It should be noted that the concept 'environmental migrant' is highly nebulous and controversial, and so this article is necessarily focussed on the debate concerning the validity of the term itself.
[[Image:Tulun ISS002-E-6439.jpg|thumb|300px|The inhabitants of the [[Carteret Islands|Carteret Atoll]] recently became climate refugees.]]
{{Cquote|'''Environmental migrants''' are persons or groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to have to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their territory or abroad.<ref>[http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/definitional-issues Working definition] of the [[International Organization for Migration]]</ref>}}


== History of the term ==
When the migration is considered to be forced and not a matter of choice, the term '''environmental refugee''' is also used. Additionally, if the causes for the migration are believed to be due to [[global warming]] related [[environmental disaster]]s, the term '''climate refugee''' is sometimes used.
Beginning with the use of the phrase 'environmental refugee' by [[Lester Brown]] in 1976<ref>Brown, L., Mcgrath, P., and Stokes, B., (1976). twenty two dimensions of the population problem, Worldwatch Paper 5, Washington DC: Worldwatch Institute</ref>, there has been a proliferation in the use of the term, and later 'environmental migrant' and a cluster of similar categories, including 'forced enviromental migrant, environmentally motivated migrant, climate refugee, climate change refugee, environmentally displaced person (EDP), disaster refugee, environmental displacee, eco-refugee, ecologically displaced person and environmental-refugee-to-be (ERTB)'<ref>Boano, C., Zetter, R., and Morris, T., (2008). Environmentally Displaced People: Understanding the linkages between environmental change, livelihoods and forced migration, Refugee Studies Centre Policy Brief No.1 (RSC: Oxford), pg.4</ref>. The differenced between these terms are less important than what they have in common: they all suggest that there is a knowable relationship between environmental drivers and human migration which is analytically useful, policy-relevant and possibly grounds for the expansion of refugee law. There has been an explosion of institutionally funded
research into the topic as a corollary of the 'mainstreaming' of the concern with climate change which began in late 2006.


== Conceptual problems ==
Some causes for environmental migration are increased [[droughts]], [[desertification]], [[sea level rise]], and disruption of seasonal [[weather]] patterns. A statistically significant correlation between migration and environmental degradation including climate change was shown by [[Afifi]] and [[Warner]] (2007), controlling for the already established major drivers of migration.<ref>Afifi, T., Warner, K. 2007 ''The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows across Countries'' UNU-EHS working paper no. 3. Bonn.</ref>
Much of the literature produced on 'environmental migration' assumes the nexus to be self-evident. The category is both emotive and commonsensical, and therefore has widespread currency in the media and among policy makers, non-social scientists and [[neo-Malthusian|neo-Malthusianist]] social scientists. However, there is no evidence that the concept can be used to achieve generalisable truths. In brief, this is because the degree to which any given environmental factor is meaningful at the societal level - let alone to any specific aspect of human activity, such as migration - is entirely conditional on socio-economic and political contingencies. In other words, it is impossible to isolate an environmental factor as an independent variable from which to deduce its impact on a particular (or general) form of social outcome in any way that will be generalisably useful; the relationship will be different depending on circumstance.


There has been little work that has bolstered the conceptual integrity of the concept. The concept lacks an agreed definition, and as a consequence, also lacks clear-cut evidence. Predictive models have therefore proved elusive, despite high-profile 'scoping studies' such as that conducted by the European Commission funded EACH-FOR project. Research<ref>Afifi, T., Warner, K. 2007 ''The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows across Countries'' UNU-EHS working paper no. 3. Bonn</ref> conducted in areas of 'environmental degradation' which attempted to demonstrated a statistically significant correlation between migration and environmental degradation (including climate change) have so far lacked falsifiability, and have been marked by an absence of counterfactual evidence that has made it impossible to draw any generalisable conclusions from the findings.
In the ''World Disasters Report 2001 [http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2001/]'' published by the [[International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies]], more people are now forced to leave their homes because of environmental disasters than war. They estimate approximately 25 million people could currently be classified as being environmental refugees.<ref>''[http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2001/ World Disasters Report 2001]'' International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Accessed August 4, 2008</ref>

==Terms==
The first sentence of this article is the widely used working definition of the [[International Organization for Migration]] (IOM) for '''Environmental migrants'''.

===Climate refugee===
The Global Governance Project defines climate refugees as ''people who have to leave their habitats, immediately or in the near future, because of sudden or gradual alterations in their natural environment related to at least one of three impacts of climate change: sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and drought and water scarcity.''<ref>[http://www.glogov.org/?pageid=80 Global Governance Project]</ref> The term was first used as far back as the 1980s, see El-Hinnawi (1985), Jacobson (1988), and Tickell (1989).

Although now widely used in the media, the term "climate refugee" is very controversial.<ref>Towards Recognition: [http://www.towardsrecognition.org/2009/04/the-ongoing-definitional-debate/ "The Ongoing Definitional Debate"]</ref> The main concern is that the use of the term "refugee" for climate or environment-related displaced people lumps them together with the political refugees protected under the [[Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees|Geneva convention]] which defines a ''refugee'' as "a person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of their nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail him/herself of the protection of that country." This, for the purpose of protecting refugees, to many states legally binding definition doesn't mention environmental reasons at all. Concerns have been voiced that referring to environmental migrants as refugees might weaken the protection of political refugees.<ref>Dun, O., Gemenne, F., Stojanov, R. ''Environmentally displaced persons: Working Definitions for the EACH-FOR project'', paper presented at the International Conference on Migration and Development in Ostrava, Czech Republic on 5 September 2007</ref> And while political refugees cannot turn to their own government for support, environmental migrants often can. The [[UNHCR]] was quoted with "Lumping both groups together under the same heading would further cloud the issues and could undermine efforts to help and protect either group and to address the root causes of either type of displacement."<ref>UNHCR: [http://unhcr.org/3d3fecb24.html "Refugees Magazine Issue 127: The Environment - A Critical Time"], Cover Story by Ray Wilkinson, page 13</ref>

Some consider ''climate refugees'' to be a subcategory of ''environmental refugees''.

===Environmental refugee===
In its 1985 report for the United Nations Environment Program entitled Environmental Refugees, El-Hinnawi defined '''environmental refugees''' as "people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanately, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardised their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life."<ref>Essam El-Hinnawi, "U.N. environmental program, environmental refugees" (1985). See [http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3970/is_200401/ai_n9353848/pg_9/ Environmental Causes and Consequences of Migration: A Search for the Meaning of "Environmental Refugees"] on [[FindArticles]]</ref>

In addition to the debate surrounding the term ''refugee'' as noted [[Environmental migrant#Climate refugee|above]], the ambiguity of the term "environmental" was also debated. For example, the suggestion that the term "environmental refugee" can be separated from political, economic, and environmental causes of migration.

===Other terms===
The [[United Nations]] sometimes have been using the term "Environmentally Induced Migrants".<ref>[http://www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters/Policy/DisasterRiskReduction/ClimateChangeAndMigration/tabid/282/language/en-US/Default.aspx UN Environment Programme – Climate Change And Environmentally Induced Migration]</ref>

The term "climate exile" has been used to refer to those whose states and therefore membership in political societies may be at risk specifically as a result of climate change<ref>[http://www.thehindu.com/2009/07/15/stories/2009071553330800.htm "The Climate Exile Alarm"] Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, Op-Ed, The Hindu, July 15, 2009.</ref>.

Alternatively, the term "climigrant" has been used to describe people who specifically move due to changes in climate.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.inwent.org/ez/articles/156345/index.en.shtml|title= The challenges of climigration|last=Leighton, Loston, Warner|date=N.D.|work= D+C Development and Cooperation No. 09 2009 |accessdate=2009-05-10}}</ref>.

A paper by [[Renaud]], Bogardi, et al. (2007) posed a conceptual framework to understand different categories of people on the move in response to environmental disruptions including climate change.<ref>Renaud, F., Bogardi, J., Dun, O., Warner, K. (2007) ''Control, Adapt, or Flee: How to face environmental migration?'' InterSections No. 5/7. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn. Available at [www.ehs.unu.edu]</ref>

==Climate refugees in early history==
Between 22-10,000 years ago, Northern Europe, Asia and North America were depopulated by humans due to the Last Ice Age when the ice corridor closed and the coastal route froze.
Dramatic Global warming 52,000 years ago resulted in the human colonization of Europe from the Middle East.<ref>[http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/"Journey of mankind"]</ref>.

==Recent climate refugees==
Across Africa desertification and a consequent decline in agricultural output is displacing increasingly large amounts of people. An estimated 10 million people within Africa have been forced to migrate over the last two decades due to desertification or environmental degradation.<ref>[http://www.ejfoundation.org/page590.html "No place like home - climate refugees"] The Environmental Justice Foundation, 2009</ref>

In [[1995]], half of [[Bhola Island]] in [[Bangladesh]] became permanently flooded, leaving 500,000 people homeless. The Bhola Islanders have been described as some of the world's first climate refugees<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/26/AR2007092602582.html "In Flood-Prone Bangladesh, a Future That Floats"], Emily Wax, ''Washington Post'', September 27, 2007</ref>. In [[2007]], a Bangladeshi scientist stated: "We're already seeing hundreds of thousands of climate refugees moving into slums in [[Dhaka]]."<ref>''ibid''</ref> These refugees were fleeing flooded coastal areas.

The inhabitants of the [[Carteret Islands]] in [[Papua New Guinea]] are also among the first climate refugees due to [[sea level rise]] attributed to [[global warming]] and climate change<ref>[http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/03/29/1017206152551.html "Islanders face rising seas with nowhere to go"], Greg Roberts, ''Sydney Morning Herald'', march 30, 2002</ref><ref>[http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/rudds-chance-to-rebuild-ties-with-the-pacific/1197018.html "Rudd's chance to rebuild ties with the Pacific"], David Peebles, ''Canberra Times'', March 6, 2008</ref>. Other inhabitants of low lying islands and Island states, are also at risk. [[Tuvalu]], [[Kiribati]] and the [[Maldives]] are especially susceptible to changes in sea level and storm surges<ref>[http://www.stuff.co.nz/4424171a12.html "Sinking Pacific atolls 'may be abandoned in a generation'"], AAP, March 4, 2008</ref><ref>[http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iQmBUlYskvnKT0CLHBucXxY5_wKAD8UP336O0 "Tiny Nations Seek Climate Help at UN"], John Heilprin, AP, February 12, 2008</ref><ref>[http://www.abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=3002001&page=1 "Kiribati's President: 'Our Lives Are At Stake': For the Islands of Kiribati, Global Warming Poses Immediate Dangers"], ABC News, April 2, 2007 (with [http://www.abcnews.go.com/WNT/popup?id=3001408 photos])</ref>.

In Alaska, the village of [[Shishmaref]], located on the 100&nbsp;km long barrier island of Sarichef, also faces evacuation as rising temperatures cause the melting of sea ice and the thawing of the permafrost.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/human-shishmaref.shtml|title= Human and Economic Indicator - Shishmaref|last=|year=2006|work= Arctic change - near real time Arctic Change Indicator Website|accessdate=2009-08-10}}</ref>


==Predictions==
==Predictions==
There have been a number of attempts over the decades to enumerate 'environmental migrants/ refugees'. Jodi Jacobson (1988) is cited as the first researcher to enumerate the issue, stating that there were already up to 10 million ‘Environmental Refugees’. Drawing on ‘worst case scenarios’ about sea-level rise, she argued that all forms of ‘Environmental Refugees’ would be six times as numerous as political refugees. (1988: 38)<ref>Jacobson, J.L. (1988). Environmental Refugees: a Yardstick of Habitability, Worldwatch paper 86, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC</ref>. By 1989, Mustafa Tolba, Executive Director of UNEP, was claiming that 'as many as 50 million people could become environmental refugees' if the world did not act to support sustainable development (Tolba 1989: 25)<ref>Tolba, M. K. (1989). Our biological heritage under siege. Bioscience 39, 725–728</ref>. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1990: 20) declared that the greatest single consequence of climate change could be migration, ‘with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and severe drought’ (Warner & Laczko: 2008: 235)<ref>Warner K and Laczko F. (2008). ‘Migration, Environment and Development: New Directions for Research’, in Chamie J, Dall’Oglio L (eds.), International Migration and Development, Continuing the Dialogue: Legal and Policy Perspectives, IOM</ref>. In the mid-1990s, Norman Myers became the most prominent proponent of this ‘maximalist’ school (Suhrke 1993), stating that there were 25 million environmental refugees in the mid-1990s, and claiming that this figure could double by 2010, with an upper limit of 200 million by 2050 (Myers 1997)<ref>Myers, N. (1997). ‘Environmental Refugees’, Population and Environment 19(2): 167-82</ref>. Myers argued that the causes of environmental displacement would include desertification, lack of water, salination of irrigated lands and the depletion of bio-diversity. He also hypothesised that displacement would amount to 30m in China, 30m in India, 15m in Bangladesh, 14m in Egypt, 10m in other delta areas and coastal zones, 1m in island states, and with otherwise agriculturally displaced people totalling 50m (Myers & Kent 1995) by 2050<ref>Myers, N. and Kent, J. (1995). Environmental Exodus: an Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena, (Climate Institute: Washington DC)</ref>. More recently, Myers has suggested that the figure by 2050 might be as high as 250 million (Christian Aid 2007: 6)<ref>Christian Aid (2007). ‘Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis’ (CA: London)</ref>.
Professor Norman Myers of [[Oxford University]] has estimated climate change will increase the number of environmental refugees sixfold over the next fifty years to 150 million.{{Citation needed|date=April 2010}} The UN University's Institute for Environment and Human Security press release mentions an (unsubstantiated) prediction that by 2010, there will be 50 million 'environmentally displaced people', most of whom will be women and children.<ref>http://www.ehs.unu.edu/index.php/article:130?menu=44.</ref> Australian climate scientist Dr. [[Graeme Pearman]] has predicted that a 2°C rise in temperature would place 100 million people 'directly at risk from coastal flooding' by 2100. The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC), has suggested 150 million environmental refugees would exist by 2050 {{Citation needed|date=March 2010}}, with another estimate by the IOM at 25 million<ref>http://www.audubonmagazine.org/fieldnotes/fieldnotes1005-oceans.html Head Above Water] May 2010 [[Audubon Magazine]]</ref>. The IOM gives an estimate range<ref>http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/complex-nexus</ref>. Because the actual phenomena of climate change affecting human movement has not yet been empirically, systematically addressed, the [[European Commission]] funded a research project "Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR)" to investigate, measure, and create scenarios for future environmental change. The project undertakes 24 case studies worldwide with a unified methodology, and will report its findings throughout 2008 (www.each-for.eu).<ref>''[http://www.each-for.eu/index.php?module=main Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR)]'' Accessed August 4, 2008</ref>.

==Political and legal debate==


These claims have gained significant currency, with the most common claims being that 150-200 million people will be climate change refugees by 2050. Variations of this claim have been made in influential reports on climate change by the IPCC (Brown 2008: 11)<ref>Brown, O (2008). ‘Migration and Climate Change’, IOM Migration Research Series, paper no.31, www.iom.int </ref> and the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (Stern et al. 2006: 3)<ref>Stern, N. (Ed.) (2006). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge</ref>, as well as by NGOs such as Friends of the Earth<ref>Friends of the Earth, ‘A Citizen's Guide to Climate Refugees, Fact Sheet Four: Predictions of Climate Refugees to 2050’ (FOTE: London), 2007: 10</ref>, Greenpeace Germany (Jakobeit and Methmann 2007)<ref>Jakobeit, C., and Methmann, C. (2007). Klimafluchtlinge – Die Verleugnete Katastrophe, Greenpeace, Hamburg</ref> and Christian Aid<ref>Christian Aid (2007). ‘Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis’ (CA: London)</ref>; and inter-governmental organisations such as the Council of Europe<ref>Parliamentary Assembly Doc. 11084, 23 Oct 2006, The Problem of Environmental Refugees: 1</ref>, UNESCO<ref>UNESCO (2007), (http://portal.unesco.org/shs/en/ev.php-URL_ID=9997&URL_DO=DO_PRINTPAGE&URL_SECTION=201.html#environment), </ref>, IOM (Brown 2008) and UNHCR<ref>UNHCR (2002), ‘A critical time for the environment’, Refugees No.127. Geneva. </ref>.
{{See also|Adaptation to global warming}}


Despite these attempts at enumeration, there is in fact a dearth of empirical evidence to support the concept of 'environmental migration’. Norman Myers is perhaps the most widely cited, and the authority of his claims is often attributed to the fact that his chief contribution to the field (Myers & Kent 1995)<ref>Myers, N. and Kent, J. (1995). Environmental Exodus: an Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena, (Climate Institute: Washington DC)</ref> used over 1000 sources<ref>Friends of the Earth, A Citizen's Guide to Climate Refugees, Fact Sheet Four: Predictions of Climate Refugees to 2050</ref>. However, on visiting his bibliography, it becomes apparent that of these sources, the vast majority comprise nothing more than a rather desultory overview of environmental science that has no obvious connection with discussions of societal impacts or migration. Indeed, only 121 sources have even a remote connection to the broad themes of migration, refugee or population displacement. Only 25 of these sources discuss the migration-environment linkage explicitly, and it is worth noting that this number is little different than any other paper on ‘Environmental migration’, and is chiefly comprised of isolated case study material. Vikram Kolmannskog has stated that Myers’ work can be ‘criticized for being inconsistent, impossible to check and failing to take proper account of opportunities to adapt’ (2008: 9)<ref>Kolmannskog, V (2008). Future Floods of Refugees, (Norwegian Refugee Council: Oslo)</ref>. Furthermore, Myers himself has acknowledged that his figures are based upon ‘heroic extrapolation’ (Brown 2008: 12)<ref>Brown, O (2008). ‘Migration and Climate Change’, IOM Migration Research Series, paper no.31, www.iom.int </ref>. More generally, Black has argued that there is ‘surprisingly little scientific evidence’ that indicates that the world is ‘filling-up with environmental refugees’ (1998: 23)<ref>Black, R. (1998). Refugees, Environment and Development, Harlow: Longman</ref>. Indeed, Francois Gemenne has stated that: 'When it comes to predictions, figures are usually based on the number of people living in regions at risk, and not on the number of people actually expected to migrate. Estimates do not account for adaptation strategies [or] different levels of vulnerability' (Gemenne 2009: 159)<ref>Gemenne, F (2009). ‘Environmental Migration: Normative Frameworks and Policy Prescriptions’, Doctoral Thesis, Sciences-Po, Paris </ref>.
The [[International Organization for Migration]] expects the scale of global migration to rise as a result of accelerated climate change.<ref>[http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/activities/by-theme/migration-climate-change-environmental-degradation/cache/offonce;jsessionid=6D506CB9A6A2EBACAD3BA42BFFC8D346.worker02 International Organization for Migration's Perspective on Migration and Climate Change]</ref> It therefore recommends policymakers around the world to take a proactive stance on the matter.<ref>International Organization for Migration: [http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/policy Key Principles for Policy Making on Migration, Climate Change & the Environmental Degradation]</ref>


==Popular culture==
The [[Environmental Justice Foundation]] (EJF) has argued that the people who will be forced to move due to climate change currently have no adequate recognition in international law.<ref>[http://www.ejfoundation.org/page590.html "No place like home - climate refugees"], The Environmental Justice Foundation, 2009</ref> The EJF contends that a new multilateral legal instrument is required to specifically address the needs of 'climate refugees' in order to confer protection to those fleeing environmental degradation and climate change.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-climate-refugees "Global warming could create 150 million climate refugees by 2050"] John Vidal, The Guardian, 3rd November 2009.</ref> They have also asserted that additional funding is needed to enable developing countries to adapt to climate change. [[Sujatha Byravan]] and Sudhir Chella Rajan have argued for the use of the term 'climate exiles' and for international agreements to provide them political and legal rights, including citizenship in other countries, bearing in mind those countries' responsibilities and capabilities.<ref>[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9402E0DE1230F93AA35756C0A9639C8B63 "Before the Flood"] Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, The New York Times, May 9, 2005.</ref><ref>[http://epw.in/epw/uploads/articles/14119.pdf "Warming up to Immigrants: An Option for US Climate Policy"] Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, Economic and Political Weekly, November 7, 2009.</ref>
Despite concerns regarding its capacity to say anything meaningful about the complex relationship between environmental drivers and human migration, the notion of 'environmental migrant', and particularly 'climate refugee', has gained traction in popular culture. A documentary entitled ''Climate Refugees'' has been released, which engages uncritically with the neo-malthusian understandings of the climate change-migration nexus. "Climate Refugees" is an Official Selection for the 2010 Sundance Film Festival.<ref>[http://sundance.bside.com/2010/films/climaterefugees_sundance2010 Climate Refugees at Sundance Film Festival 2010]</ref>


Since 2007, German artist [[Hermann Josef Hack]] has shown his World Climate Refugee Camp in the centers of various European cities. The model camp, made of roughly 1000 miniature tents, is a public art intervention that depicts the social impacts of climate change.<ref>[http://www.hermann-josef-hack.de/enid/2034bbfb0dddddd028dfd1cea74969d5,d2251461727469636c655f6964092d09373534/3o.html Hermann Josef Hack Website]</ref>
==Media==
In the documentary ''Climate Refugees'', filmmaker Michael Nash illuminates the mass global migration of humans caused by our changing climate, what the film calls "the human face of climate change". The film also examines the link between our changing climate and national security. ''Climate Refugees'' travels the globe interviewing scholars, politicians and victims, including [[Lester R. Brown]], immigration policy advisor Tino Cuellar, [[Newt Gingrich]], [[Rajendra K. Pachauri]], [[Speaker of the House]] [[Nancy Pelosi]] , Senator [[John Kerry]], [[Secretary of Interior]] [[Ken Salazar]], [[Stephen Schneider]], [[Norman Myers]], Janos Bogardi, [[Yvo de Boer]], Koko Warner, Gov. [[Bill Ritter Jr.]], [[Achim Steiner]], and [[Bjorn Lomborg]].Climate Refugees is an Official Selection for the 2010 Sundance Film Festival.<ref>[http://sundance.bside.com/2010/films/climaterefugees_sundance2010 Climate Refugees at Sundance Film Festival 2010]</ref> Since 2007, German artist [[Hermann Josef Hack]] has shown his World Climate Refugee Camp in the centers of various European cities. The model camp, made of roughly 1000 miniature tents, is a public art intervention that depicts the social impacts of climate change.<ref>[http://www.hermann-josef-hack.de/enid/2034bbfb0dddddd028dfd1cea74969d5,d2251461727469636c655f6964092d09373534/3o.html Hermann Josef Hack Website]</ref>


==See also==
==See also==

Revision as of 19:34, 31 July 2010

'Environmental migrant' is a controversial concept which has increased in currency and generated considerable discussion in the 2000s as policy-makers, environmental and social scientists attempt to conceptualise the potential societal ramifications of climate change and general environmental degradation. It should be noted that the concept 'environmental migrant' is highly nebulous and controversial, and so this article is necessarily focussed on the debate concerning the validity of the term itself.

History of the term

Beginning with the use of the phrase 'environmental refugee' by Lester Brown in 1976[1], there has been a proliferation in the use of the term, and later 'environmental migrant' and a cluster of similar categories, including 'forced enviromental migrant, environmentally motivated migrant, climate refugee, climate change refugee, environmentally displaced person (EDP), disaster refugee, environmental displacee, eco-refugee, ecologically displaced person and environmental-refugee-to-be (ERTB)'[2]. The differenced between these terms are less important than what they have in common: they all suggest that there is a knowable relationship between environmental drivers and human migration which is analytically useful, policy-relevant and possibly grounds for the expansion of refugee law. There has been an explosion of institutionally funded research into the topic as a corollary of the 'mainstreaming' of the concern with climate change which began in late 2006.

Conceptual problems

Much of the literature produced on 'environmental migration' assumes the nexus to be self-evident. The category is both emotive and commonsensical, and therefore has widespread currency in the media and among policy makers, non-social scientists and neo-Malthusianist social scientists. However, there is no evidence that the concept can be used to achieve generalisable truths. In brief, this is because the degree to which any given environmental factor is meaningful at the societal level - let alone to any specific aspect of human activity, such as migration - is entirely conditional on socio-economic and political contingencies. In other words, it is impossible to isolate an environmental factor as an independent variable from which to deduce its impact on a particular (or general) form of social outcome in any way that will be generalisably useful; the relationship will be different depending on circumstance.

There has been little work that has bolstered the conceptual integrity of the concept. The concept lacks an agreed definition, and as a consequence, also lacks clear-cut evidence. Predictive models have therefore proved elusive, despite high-profile 'scoping studies' such as that conducted by the European Commission funded EACH-FOR project. Research[3] conducted in areas of 'environmental degradation' which attempted to demonstrated a statistically significant correlation between migration and environmental degradation (including climate change) have so far lacked falsifiability, and have been marked by an absence of counterfactual evidence that has made it impossible to draw any generalisable conclusions from the findings.

Predictions

There have been a number of attempts over the decades to enumerate 'environmental migrants/ refugees'. Jodi Jacobson (1988) is cited as the first researcher to enumerate the issue, stating that there were already up to 10 million ‘Environmental Refugees’. Drawing on ‘worst case scenarios’ about sea-level rise, she argued that all forms of ‘Environmental Refugees’ would be six times as numerous as political refugees. (1988: 38)[4]. By 1989, Mustafa Tolba, Executive Director of UNEP, was claiming that 'as many as 50 million people could become environmental refugees' if the world did not act to support sustainable development (Tolba 1989: 25)[5]. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1990: 20) declared that the greatest single consequence of climate change could be migration, ‘with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and severe drought’ (Warner & Laczko: 2008: 235)[6]. In the mid-1990s, Norman Myers became the most prominent proponent of this ‘maximalist’ school (Suhrke 1993), stating that there were 25 million environmental refugees in the mid-1990s, and claiming that this figure could double by 2010, with an upper limit of 200 million by 2050 (Myers 1997)[7]. Myers argued that the causes of environmental displacement would include desertification, lack of water, salination of irrigated lands and the depletion of bio-diversity. He also hypothesised that displacement would amount to 30m in China, 30m in India, 15m in Bangladesh, 14m in Egypt, 10m in other delta areas and coastal zones, 1m in island states, and with otherwise agriculturally displaced people totalling 50m (Myers & Kent 1995) by 2050[8]. More recently, Myers has suggested that the figure by 2050 might be as high as 250 million (Christian Aid 2007: 6)[9].

These claims have gained significant currency, with the most common claims being that 150-200 million people will be climate change refugees by 2050. Variations of this claim have been made in influential reports on climate change by the IPCC (Brown 2008: 11)[10] and the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (Stern et al. 2006: 3)[11], as well as by NGOs such as Friends of the Earth[12], Greenpeace Germany (Jakobeit and Methmann 2007)[13] and Christian Aid[14]; and inter-governmental organisations such as the Council of Europe[15], UNESCO[16], IOM (Brown 2008) and UNHCR[17].

Despite these attempts at enumeration, there is in fact a dearth of empirical evidence to support the concept of 'environmental migration’. Norman Myers is perhaps the most widely cited, and the authority of his claims is often attributed to the fact that his chief contribution to the field (Myers & Kent 1995)[18] used over 1000 sources[19]. However, on visiting his bibliography, it becomes apparent that of these sources, the vast majority comprise nothing more than a rather desultory overview of environmental science that has no obvious connection with discussions of societal impacts or migration. Indeed, only 121 sources have even a remote connection to the broad themes of migration, refugee or population displacement. Only 25 of these sources discuss the migration-environment linkage explicitly, and it is worth noting that this number is little different than any other paper on ‘Environmental migration’, and is chiefly comprised of isolated case study material. Vikram Kolmannskog has stated that Myers’ work can be ‘criticized for being inconsistent, impossible to check and failing to take proper account of opportunities to adapt’ (2008: 9)[20]. Furthermore, Myers himself has acknowledged that his figures are based upon ‘heroic extrapolation’ (Brown 2008: 12)[21]. More generally, Black has argued that there is ‘surprisingly little scientific evidence’ that indicates that the world is ‘filling-up with environmental refugees’ (1998: 23)[22]. Indeed, Francois Gemenne has stated that: 'When it comes to predictions, figures are usually based on the number of people living in regions at risk, and not on the number of people actually expected to migrate. Estimates do not account for adaptation strategies [or] different levels of vulnerability' (Gemenne 2009: 159)[23].

Despite concerns regarding its capacity to say anything meaningful about the complex relationship between environmental drivers and human migration, the notion of 'environmental migrant', and particularly 'climate refugee', has gained traction in popular culture. A documentary entitled Climate Refugees has been released, which engages uncritically with the neo-malthusian understandings of the climate change-migration nexus. "Climate Refugees" is an Official Selection for the 2010 Sundance Film Festival.[24]

Since 2007, German artist Hermann Josef Hack has shown his World Climate Refugee Camp in the centers of various European cities. The model camp, made of roughly 1000 miniature tents, is a public art intervention that depicts the social impacts of climate change.[25]

See also

References

  1. ^ Brown, L., Mcgrath, P., and Stokes, B., (1976). twenty two dimensions of the population problem, Worldwatch Paper 5, Washington DC: Worldwatch Institute
  2. ^ Boano, C., Zetter, R., and Morris, T., (2008). Environmentally Displaced People: Understanding the linkages between environmental change, livelihoods and forced migration, Refugee Studies Centre Policy Brief No.1 (RSC: Oxford), pg.4
  3. ^ Afifi, T., Warner, K. 2007 The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows across Countries UNU-EHS working paper no. 3. Bonn
  4. ^ Jacobson, J.L. (1988). Environmental Refugees: a Yardstick of Habitability, Worldwatch paper 86, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC
  5. ^ Tolba, M. K. (1989). Our biological heritage under siege. Bioscience 39, 725–728
  6. ^ Warner K and Laczko F. (2008). ‘Migration, Environment and Development: New Directions for Research’, in Chamie J, Dall’Oglio L (eds.), International Migration and Development, Continuing the Dialogue: Legal and Policy Perspectives, IOM
  7. ^ Myers, N. (1997). ‘Environmental Refugees’, Population and Environment 19(2): 167-82
  8. ^ Myers, N. and Kent, J. (1995). Environmental Exodus: an Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena, (Climate Institute: Washington DC)
  9. ^ Christian Aid (2007). ‘Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis’ (CA: London)
  10. ^ Brown, O (2008). ‘Migration and Climate Change’, IOM Migration Research Series, paper no.31, www.iom.int
  11. ^ Stern, N. (Ed.) (2006). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  12. ^ Friends of the Earth, ‘A Citizen's Guide to Climate Refugees, Fact Sheet Four: Predictions of Climate Refugees to 2050’ (FOTE: London), 2007: 10
  13. ^ Jakobeit, C., and Methmann, C. (2007). Klimafluchtlinge – Die Verleugnete Katastrophe, Greenpeace, Hamburg
  14. ^ Christian Aid (2007). ‘Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis’ (CA: London)
  15. ^ Parliamentary Assembly Doc. 11084, 23 Oct 2006, The Problem of Environmental Refugees: 1
  16. ^ UNESCO (2007), (http://portal.unesco.org/shs/en/ev.php-URL_ID=9997&URL_DO=DO_PRINTPAGE&URL_SECTION=201.html#environment),
  17. ^ UNHCR (2002), ‘A critical time for the environment’, Refugees No.127. Geneva.
  18. ^ Myers, N. and Kent, J. (1995). Environmental Exodus: an Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena, (Climate Institute: Washington DC)
  19. ^ Friends of the Earth, A Citizen's Guide to Climate Refugees, Fact Sheet Four: Predictions of Climate Refugees to 2050
  20. ^ Kolmannskog, V (2008). Future Floods of Refugees, (Norwegian Refugee Council: Oslo)
  21. ^ Brown, O (2008). ‘Migration and Climate Change’, IOM Migration Research Series, paper no.31, www.iom.int
  22. ^ Black, R. (1998). Refugees, Environment and Development, Harlow: Longman
  23. ^ Gemenne, F (2009). ‘Environmental Migration: Normative Frameworks and Policy Prescriptions’, Doctoral Thesis, Sciences-Po, Paris
  24. ^ Climate Refugees at Sundance Film Festival 2010
  25. ^ Hermann Josef Hack Website
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