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1988 Manitoba general election

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1988 Manitoba general election
← 1986 April 26, 1988 1990 →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
  PC LIB
Leader Gary Filmon Sharon Carstairs Gary Doer
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since December 10, 1983 March 4, 1984 March 30, 1988
Leader's seat Tuxedo River Heights Concordia
Last election 26 1 30
Seats won 25 20 12
Seat change Decrease1 Increase19 Decrease18
Popular vote 206,180 190,913 126,954
Percentage 38.37% 35.52% 23.62%
Swing Decrease2.19 Increase21.60% Decrease17.88%
Map of Election Results
Premier before election

Howard Pawley
New Democratic

Premier after election

Gary Filmon
Progressive Conservative

The 1988 Manitoba general election was held on April 26, 1988[1] to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Manitoba, Canada. It resulted in a minority government. The Progressive Conservative Party won 25 seats, against 20 for the Liberal Party and 12 for the New Democratic Party.

Background

[edit]

The election was called unexpectedly in early 1988, after disgruntled NDP backbencher Jim Walding voted against his government's budget on March 9, 1988. With former cabinet minister Laurent Desjardins having essentially abandoned his seat earlier in the year, the Legislative Assembly was almost evenly divided. Walding's defection thus resulted in Howard Pawley's NDP government being defeated, 28 votes to 27. As the budget vote was a confidence measure, the Pawley ministry was forced to resign and call new elections two years ahead of schedule.

Popular support for the NDP was at an historically low level when the election was called, due to soaring Autopac rates and a taxpayer-funded bailout of the Manitoba Telephone System. The Pawley government's support for the Meech Lake Accord was also unpopular in some circles. One internal poll had the party at only 6% support, and there were concerns that they could be reduced to only two or three seats in the 57-seat legislature. Pawley resigned as party leader on the day after the budget defeat, and Urban Affairs Minister Gary Doer narrowly defeated Agriculture Minister Leonard Harapiak to replace him at a party convention held during the campaign.[2][3]

Pawley himself announced he would enter federal politics and did not seek re-election in his own seat. In an unusual arrangement, the outgoing premier remained in office until after the election. Even after Doer's selection, the consensus was that the NDP would not be reelected. However, they managed to stabilize at around 20% in the polls. Many traditional NDP voters, especially in the city of Winnipeg, abandoned the party to support the Liberals in this cycle.

Issues

[edit]

The Progressive Conservatives, led by Gary Filmon, ran on a platform of saving revenue by selling public corporations, including ManOil and Manfor. Filmon also promised to scrap the province's Public Investment Corporation entirely. The Liberals also promised more prudent fiscal management, but did not propose to sell these crown corporations. Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs was also known as a prominent opponent of the Meech Lake Accord.

The NDP, which retained a support base in the north of the province, promised to create northern training centres in Thompson and The Pas.

The national abortion debate also surfaced in this campaign, although none of the major parties put forward a clear position on the issue. Although Filmon was personally anti-abortion, the Progressive Conservatives were unwilling to propose specific action on the subject, and withdrew from an early promise to close Henry Morgentaler's private clinic. The Liberals favoured counselling, including a focus on adoption. The NDP emphasized prevention and support services for poorer women who choose to continue their pregnancies.

Campaign

[edit]

The Progressive Conservatives entered the election with a significant lead in the polls, but saw their support undercut by the Liberals in the campaign's final weeks. Before the party leaders' debate, a Winnipeg Free Press poll indicated that 40% of voters considered Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs as the best choice for Premier, with 24% favouring Progressive Conservative Gary Filmon and 19% favouring NDP leader Gary Doer. 17% were undecided.

Carstairs performed well in the leaders' debate, and did much to improve her party's popularity as the campaign reached its end.

Opinion polls

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm Last day
of survey 		Source PCMB MLP MNDP Other ME Sample
Election 1988 April 26, 1988 38.37 35.52 23.62 2.49
University of Manitoba Research Ltd. February 1988 [4] 50.4 22.8 25.4 — — —
University of Manitoba Research Ltd. October 10, 1987 [5] 36.7 23.3 37.3 — 3.0 1,090
University of Manitoba Research Ltd. June 1987 [6] 35.9 18.7 40.3 — 3.0 1,005
Western Opinion Research April 1987 [7] 36 28 33 — 4.5 500
University of Manitoba Research Ltd. February 1987 [7] 32.4 16.6 45.6 — 3.0 988
Election 1986 March 18, 1986 40.56 13.92 41.50 4.02

Results

[edit]

The Liberal Party performed well in Winnipeg, winning 19 out of 29 seats in that city and picking up ridings from both the NDP and Tories, and nearly managed to oust Filmon in his riding of Tuxedo, in south-central Winnipeg. The party won only one seat outside Winnipeg, however—Pawley's former seat of Selkirk, centred on the community of the same name just north of Winnipeg. It was and still is the party's best showing in an election since the then Liberal-Progressives won their last majority in 1953.

In terms of the popular vote, the Progressive Conservatives actually lost support from the last election, however they dominated the rural southern portion of the province, a traditional Tory stronghold. They made some inroads into traditional NDP territory immediately north of Winnipeg. The party also won six seats in Winnipeg, and took the northern seat of Swan River from the NDP.

The New Democrats managed to retain four seats in Winnipeg, five in the north, the mid-northern ridings of Dauphin and Interlake, and Brandon East in the south of the province. It is still the worst defeat that an NDP government has suffered in Manitoba.

Exit polls later revealed that new voters (i.e., immigrants and first-time voters) had polled strongly for the Liberals in Winnipeg.

Although Pawley had retired from politics and his party was reduced to third place, by constitutional convention he retained the right to remain in office until the NDP was defeated in the legislature, as well as the right to advise whether Lieutenant Governor George Johnson should appoint Filmon or Carstairs as the new premier upon leaving office. Doer also could have attempted to negotiate a coalition with the Liberals. Instead, he informally reached a deal with Filmon in which the NDP would tolerate a Tory minority government. As a result, Pawley finally resigned as Premier of Manitoba on May 9 and advised Johnson to appoint Filmon his successor. Filmon was duly sworn in later that day after advising Johnson that he could form a government.

Party Party Leader # of
candidates 		Seats Popular Vote
Before1 Elected % Change # % Change
  Progressive Conservative Gary Filmon 57 26 25 -3.85% 206,180 38.37% -2.19
  Liberal Sharon Carstairs 57 1 20 +1900% 190,913 35.52% +21.60
  New Democratic Gary Doer 57 30 12 -60.0% 126,954 23.62% -17.88
Confederation of Regions Dennis Heeney 14 - - - 7,100 1.32% -1.12
Western Independence Fred Cameron 16 - - - 2,442 0.45% +0.45
Progressive Sidney Green 6 - - - 975 0.18% -0.33
Libertarian Clancy Smith 6 - - - 501 0.09% +0.09
Communist Lorne Robson 5 - - - 261 0.05% -0.03
  Independent 11 2 - -100% 2,084 0.39% -0.46
Total 229 57 57 - 537,410 100%  

1 "Before" refers to standings in the Legislature at dissolution, and not to the results of the previous election. These numbers therefore reflect changes in party standings as a result of by-elections and members crossing the floor.

Popular vote
PC
 
 38.37%
Liberal
 
 35.52%
New Democratic
 
 23.62%
Others
 
 2.49%
Seats summary
PC
 
 43.86%
Liberal
 
 35.09%
New Democratic
 
 21.05%

Riding results

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDP PC Liberal Other
Arthur Goldwyn Jones
575 		Jim Downey
4,359 		Douglas Mosset
2,171 		Ross Meggison (CoR)
863 		Jim Downey
Assiniboia Robert Johannson
1,031 		Ric Nordman
3,731 		Ed Mandrake
3,918 		Linda Cress (WIP)
166 		Ric Nordman
Brandon East Leonard Evans
3,512 		Jim Armstrong
2,859 		Lois Fjeldsted
2,260 		Garth Shurvell (Ind)
208 		Leonard Evans
Brandon West Ishbel Solvason
2,313 		James McCrae
5,039 		John Worley
3,618 		James McCrae
Burrows Doug Martindale
3,005 		Allan Yap
1,040 		William Chornopyski
3,114 		Michael Kibzey (Ind)
129
Lorne Robson (Comm)
79 		Conrad Santos
Charleswood Bruno Zimmer
1,180 		Jim Ernst
6,670 		Shari Nelson
5,850 		David Hollins (Ind)
158 		Jim Ernst
Churchill Jay Cowan
2,396 		Wayne Wittmeier
1,019 		George Kernaghan
714 		Jay Cowan
Concordia Gary Doer
3,702 		Vic Rubiletz
2,634 		Barbara Blomeley
2,948 		Bill Seman (Ind)
358
Fred Cameron (WIP)
114
Charles Henry (P)
61 		Gary Doer
Dauphin John Plohman
3,983 		Russell Secord
3,435 		Peter Rampton
2,475 		John Plohman
Ellice Harvey Smith
2,457 		Alex Arenson
1,538 		Avis Gray
3,081 		Susan Caine (WIP)
109 		Harvey Smith
Elmwood Jim Maloway
3,012 		Frank Syms
1,920 		Ed Price
2,839 		Russ Letkeman (Lbt)
113 		Jim Maloway
Emerson Kurt Penner
1,407 		Albert Driedger
5,027 		Martin Stadler
2,615 		Jake Wall (CoR)
366 		Albert Driedger
Flin Flon Jerry Storie
2,948 		Gordon Mitchell
1,563 		Brian King
867 		Jerry Storie
Fort Garry Brian Pannell
1,553 		Charlie Birt
5,173 		Laurie Evans
6,055 		Ivan Merritt (WIP)
173
Millie Lamb (Comm)
45 		Charlie Birt

Fort Rouge

Roland Penner
2,912 		Robert Haier
2,303 		Jim Carr
5,127 		Gordon Pratt (P)
75
Dennis Owens (Lbt)
66 		Roland Penner
Gimli John Bucklaschuk
3,352 		Ed Helwer
4,716 		Morley Murray
2,347 		Eugene Klochko (WIP)
261 		John Bucklaschuk
Gladstone Fred Tait
509 		Charlotte Oleson
3,760 		Cordell Barker
2,132 		Brian Hildebrandt (CoR)
759 		Charlotte Oleson
Inkster Don Scott
4,098 		Resty Taruc
2,151 		Kevin Lamoureux
4,466 		Nancy Watkins (Comm)
64 		Don Scott
Interlake Bill Uruski
3,057 		Ed Dandeneau
2,810 		Clyde Sigurdson
1,777 		Bill Uruski
Kildonan Marty Dolin
4,542 		John Baluta
5,068 		Gulzar Cheema
5,653 		Sidney Green (P)
445
Tracy Fuhr (WIP)
133 		Marty Dolin
Kirkfield Park Hamish Gavin
868 		Gerrie Hammond
5,269 		Irene Friesen
5,014 		Gerrie Hammond
Lac du Bonnet Clarence Baker
2,911 		Darren Praznik
3,773 		Peter Raymond
2,411 		Clarence Baker
Lakeside Eduard Hiebert
972 		Harry Enns
4,475 		Delmer Nott
2,828 		Cam Baldwin (CoR)
864 		Harry Enns
La Verendrye Walter McDowell
708 		Helmut Pankratz
4,377 		Cornelius E. Goertzen
2,948 		Helmut Pankratz
Logan Maureen Hemphill
2,646 		Linda Thomson
1,085 		John Dobbin
1,660 		Barry Marchand (Ind)
81
Frank Goldspink (Comm)
46 		Maureen Hemphill
Minnedosa Susan Proven
1,476 		Harold Gilleshammer
3,669 		Terry Drebit
2,496 		Dennis Heeney (CoR)
820 		Dave Blake
Morris Clifford Hodgins
449 		Clayton Manness
4,578 		Barbara Plas
1,832 		Raymond Switzer (CoR)
597
Jeffrey Plas (Ind)
57 		Clayton Manness
Niakwa Stan Williams
2,026 		Abe Kovnats
7,222 		Herold Driedger
8,576 		Lyle Cruickshank (WIP)
237 		Abe Kovnats
Osborne Muriel Smith
2,753 		Rosemary Vodrey
2,421 		Reg Alcock
4,334 		Clancy Smith (Lbt)
145 		Muriel Smith
Pembina Hans Wittich
382 		Don Orchard
6,043 		Marilyn Skubovius
2,171 		Abe Giesbrecht (CoR)
499 		Don Orchard
Portage la Prairie Bill Zettler
722 		Ed Connery
4,020 		Darlene Hamm
2,812 		Irene Armishaw (CoR)
603 		Ed Connery
Radisson Gerard Lecuyer
3,113 		John Samborski
3,049 		Allan Patterson
4,918 		Gerard Lecuyer
Rhineland Reg Loeppky
341 		Jack Penner
5,166 		Walter Hebert
1,059 		Arnold Brown
Riel Bob Ages
1,834 		Gerry Ducharme
4,289 		Chris Sigurdson
3,965 		John Hiebert (CoR)
121
Neil Knight (WIP)
75 		Gerry Ducharme
River East Michael Dyck
3,019 		Bonnie Mitchelson
7,563 		Morley Golden
3,805 		Niel Friesen (WIP)
233 		Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights Harry Daniels
1,036 		Bob Vandewater
3,373 		Sharon Carstairs
6,620 		Jim Weidman (Lbt)
62 		Sharon Carstairs
Roblin-Russell Dennis Trinder
1,973 		Len Derkach
4,030 		Neil Stewart
2,513 		Len Derkach
Rossmere Vic Schroeder
3,424 		Harold Neufeld
3,950 		Cecilia Connelly
2,851 		Chris Dondo (WIP)
146 		Vic Schroeder
Rupertsland Elijah Harper
2,206 		Joe Guy Wood
1,419 		Maurice Berens
638 		Elijah Harper
St. Boniface Lorette Beaudry-Ferland
2,061 		Guy Savoie
1,586 		Neil Gaudry
5,743 		Laurent Desjardins
St. James Allan MacDonald
2,171 		Jae Eadie
3,360 		Paul Edwards
3,939 		Fred Debrecen (CoR)
137
Charles Lamont (P)
74
Dennis Rice (Lbt)
69
Merle Hartlin (WIP)
62 		Al Mackling
St. Johns Judy Wasylycia-Leis
3,092 		Lynn Filbert
1,222 		Ruth Oberman
2,480 		Cyril Fogel (P)
171
Roy Price (Ind)
68
Gerald Zucawich (Ind)
35 		Judy Wasylycia-Leis
St. Norbert Bennetta Benson
1,460 		Gerry Mercier
5,695 		John Angus
6,073 		Gerry Mercier
St. Vital Gerri Unwin
2,282 		Paul Herriot
3,614 		Bob Rose
4,431 		Katharina Cameron (WIP)
123
Trevor Wiebe (Lbt)
46 		Jim Walding
Ste. Rose Gerald Follows
1,464 		Glen Cummings
3,723 		Brent Johnson
2,631 		David Mutch
249 		Glen Cummings
Selkirk Terry Sargeant
3,637 		Eugene Kinaschuk
3,138 		Gwen Charles
3,821 		Ruth VanKoeveringe (WIP)
214 		Howard Pawley
Seven Oaks Eugene Kostyra
3,553 		George Finkle
1,636 		Mark Minenko
3,885 		Eugene Kostyra
Springfield Andy Anstett
3,749 		Gilles Roch
5,815 		Lance Laufer
3,806 		Gilles Roch
Sturgeon Creek Len Sawatsky
993 		Frank Johnston
4,174 		Iva Yeo
4,833 		Hugh Buskell (CoR)
158
Nigel Hanrahan (Comm)
27 		Frank Johnston
Swan River Len Harapiak
3,446 		Parker Burrell
4,115 		Don Dennis
653 		Len Harapiak
The Pas Harry Harapiak
3,221 		Bruce Unfried
1,584 		Scott Gray
1,426 		Harry Harapiak
Thompson Steve Ashton
2,992 		Ken Collin
1,989 		Janice Pronteau
1,240 		Steve Ashton
Transcona Wilson Parasiuk
3,191 		Bill Omiucke
2,270 		Richard Kozak
3,900 		Ray Hargreaves (Ind)
121 		Wilson Parasiuk
Turtle Mountain John Miller
446 		Denis Rocan
3,208 		Ross McMillan
2,610 		Rod Stephenson (Ind)
767
Harold Parsonage (CoR)
476
Bill Harrison (Ind)
102
William Comer (WIP)
87 		Denis Rocan
Tuxedo Catherine Hofman
714 		Gary Filmon
6,427 		Jasper McKee
6,303 		R. EisBrenner (WIP)
149 		Gary Filmon
Virden Louise Leask
967 		Glen Findlay
4,459 		Bill Davison
2,043 		Alex Gabrielle (CoR)
588
Terry Drul (WIP)
160 		Glen Findlay
Wolseley Myrna Phillips
3,112 		Kirk Stanley
1,579 		Harold Taylor
3,618 		Derek Shettler (P)
149 		Myrna Phillips

Post-election changes

[edit]

Gilles Roch (PC) becomes (L) on September 8, 1988.

Opinion polls

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		PC Liberal NDP Others Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Polling
method
Angus Reid[8] April 12, 1988 43 34 22 1 818 3.5% Telephone
Angus Reid[9] March 14, 1988 48 32 19 1 806 3.5% Telephone
U of M[10] October 10, 1987 36.7 23.3 37.3 2.7 1,090 3.0% Telephone
Western Opinion[11] March 26, 1987 36 28 33 3 500 4.5% Telephone

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "26 April, Today in Canadian history".
  2. ^ Rastin, Sandra; Reshef, Yonatan (2003). Unions in the time of revolution: government restructuring in Alberta and Ontario. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. pp. 254–5. ISBN 0-8020-8753-1.
  3. ^ Adams, Christopher P. (2008). Politics in Manitoba: parties, leaders, and voters. [Winnipeg]: University of Manitoba Press. ISBN 978-0-88755-704-0.
  4. ^ "Maverick topples Pawley's NDP in Manitoba vote". The Globe and Mail. March 9, 1988. p. A1.
  5. ^ "Manitoba NDP dip recorded in survey". The Vancouver Sun. October 15, 1987. p. A9.
  6. ^ York, Geoffrey (June 13, 1987). "Manitoba gets reform as Pawley bows to left". The Globe and Mail. p. A3.
  7. ^ a b York, Geoffrey (April 13, 1987). "Tories leading NDP in new Manitoba poll". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
  8. ^ "Manitoba PCs still lead polls NDP dead last". The Gazette. April 21, 1988. p. B1.
  9. ^ MacQueen, Ken (March 16, 1988). "NDP headed for defeat in Manitoba, poll shows". The Vancouver Sun. p. A2.
  10. ^ "Manitoba NDP dip recorded in survey". The Vancouver Sun. October 15, 1987. p. A9.
  11. ^ York, Geoffrey (April 13, 1987). "Tories leading NDP in new Manitoba poll". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
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