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2021 Madrilenian regional election

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2021 Madrilenian regional election
← 2019 4 May 2021 2023 →
All 136 seats in the Assembly of Madrid
69 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,112,813 Green arrow up1.1%
Turnout3,667,806 (71.7%)
Green arrow up7.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Isabel Díaz Ayuso Mónica García Ángel Gabilondo
Party PP Más Madrid PSOE
Leader since 13 January 2019 10 July 2020 21 February 2015
Last election 30 seats, 22.2% 20 seats, 14.7% 37 seats, 27.3%
Seats won 65 24 24
Seat change Green arrow up35 Green arrow up4 Red arrow down13
Popular vote 1,631,608 619,215 612,622
Percentage 44.8% 17.0% 16.8%
Swing Green arrow up22.6 pp Green arrow up2.3 pp Red arrow down10.5 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Rocío Monasterio Pablo Iglesias Edmundo Bal
Party Vox Podemos–IU Cs
Leader since 18 April 2019 28 March 2021 22 March 2021
Last election 12 seats, 8.9% 7 seats, 5.6% 26 seats, 19.5%
Seats won 13 10 0
Seat change Green arrow up1 Green arrow up3 Red arrow down26
Popular vote 333,403 263,871 130,237
Percentage 9.1% 7.2% 3.6%
Swing Green arrow up0.2 pp Green arrow up1.6 pp Red arrow down15.9 pp
President before election

Isabel Díaz Ayuso
PP

Elected President

Isabel Díaz Ayuso
PP

The 2021 Madrilenian regional election was held on Tuesday, 4 May 2021, to elect the 12th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 136 seats in the Assembly were up for election. This marked the first time that a regional premier in Madrid made use of the presidential prerogative to call an early election.

On 10 March 2021 after the unexpected announcement by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Citizens (Cs) of moves to bring down People's Party-led governments in the Region of Murcia, Madrilenian president Isabel Díaz Ayuso broke her alliance with Cs and called a snap election in the Community of Madrid for 4 May, a move which she had unsuccessfully attempted twice in 2020. Despite both the PSOE and Más Madrid preventively filing motions of no confidence in an attempt to thwart Ayuso's move, the next day the Assembly's bureau provisionally acknowledged the parliamentary dissolution, though it announced a complaint against Ayuso's election call. Subsequently, the second deputy prime minister of Spain and Unidas Podemos national leader, Pablo Iglesias, announced he would be stepping down from his national cabinet posts in order to run as his alliance's leading candidate in the regional election.

The election resulted in a landslide victory for Ayuso's PP, which fell four seats short of an overall majority and secured more votes and seats than all three main leftist parties combined, in what was the best performance since 2011. The vote share of both the PSOE and Cs collapsed, with the former being surpassed by Más Madrid and the latter failing to win any seats. In the election aftermath, Iglesias announced his farewell from Spanish politics and his resignation from all of his political and institutional posts. The strong result for the PP, fueled by Ayuso's controversial personality and charisma as well as a general feeling of exhaustion in the region in response to restrictions enforced to curb the COVID-19 pandemic by the Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez, meant that it was not dependent on the far-right Vox's explicit support to form a government, though it still required its confidence-and-supply to pass laws.

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Assembly of Madrid was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Madrid, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Madrilenian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Madrilenians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

All members of the Assembly of Madrid were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. The Assembly was entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000.[1][3]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Assembly being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the date for the next ordinary election of the Assembly on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution.[5] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Throughout 2020, as a result of both the growing divisions between the two governing coalition partners and the perceived likelihood of a motion of no confidence being tabled by the opposition over Díaz Ayuso's perceived mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Community of Madrid,[6][7] Ayuso considered calling a snap election in the region.[8] A first attempt was reportedly aborted by her party's national leadership in June 2020,[9][10] but in September, it was reported that Ayuso intended a regional election in Madrid be held concurrently with the announced Catalan regional election by Catalan president Quim Torra, tentatively scheduled for some point in late 2020 or early 2021.[11][12] Ayuso herself seemed to cast off such rumours through her Twitter account.[13]

On 10 March 2021, both the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Citizens (Cs) announced an agreement under which they would jointly bring down the People's Party (PP) governments in the city and the region of Murcia, where both PP and Cs had been in government ever since the 2019 local and regional elections.[14] This prompted President Ayuso to immediately end her alliance with Cs and call a snap regional election for 4 May 2021, wary of the Cs branch in Madrid being intent on bringing her down in a similar fashion.[15][16] The PSOE and Más Madrid tried to prevent the election call by filling one no-confidence motion each.[17] Because the election decree does not enter into force until the moment of its publication, the situation raised the issue on which decision should be legally considered to have occurred first, since an election cannot be called while the process of a motion of no confidence is underway.[18] Upon the publication of the dissolution decree the next day, the Assembly's bureau provisionally acknowledged the election call but announced it would study filling a complaint against it.[19]

The Assembly of Madrid was officially dissolved on 11 March 2021 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM), setting the election date for 4 May and scheduling for the chamber to convene on 8 June.[20]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the time of dissolution.[21][22]

Parliamentary composition in March 2021
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 37 37
People's Parliamentary Group PP 30 30
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 26 26
More Madrid Parliamentary Group Más Madrid 18 20
Equo 2
Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid Vox 12 12
United We Can–United Left–
Stand Up Madrid Parliamentary Group 		Podemos 5 7
IU–M 2

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Ángel Gabilondo Social democracy 27.31% 37 ☒N [23]
[24]
PP
List
 Isabel Díaz Ayuso Conservatism
Christian democracy 		22.23% 30 checkY [25]
Cs
List
 Edmundo Bal Liberalism 19.46% 26 ☒N [26]
[27]
Más Madrid
List
 Mónica García Progressivism
Participatory democracy
Green politics 		14.69% 20 ☒N [28]
[29]
Vox
List
 Rocío Monasterio Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		8.88% 12 ☒N [30]
Podemos–IU
List
 Pablo Iglesias Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		5.60% 7 ☒N [31]
[32]
[33]
[34]

Timetable

[edit]

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):[4][35]

  • 10 March: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the President.[20]
  • 11 March: Formal dissolution of the Assembly of Madrid and beginning of a suspension period of events for the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
  • 14 March: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions.
  • 21 March: Deadline for parties and federations intending to enter into a coalition to inform the relevant electoral commission.
  • 31 March: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates to the relevant electoral commission.
  • 2 April: Submitted lists of candidates are provisionally published in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).
  • 5 April: Deadline for citizens entered in the Register of Absent Electors Residing Abroad (CERA) and for citizens temporarily absent from Spain to apply for voting.
  • 6 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to rectify irregularities in their lists.
  • 7 April: Official proclamation of valid submitted lists of candidates.
  • 8 April: Proclaimed lists are published in the BOCM.
  • 18 April: Official start of electoral campaigning.[20]
  • 22 April: Deadline to apply for postal voting (extended to 25 April by the Central Electoral Commission).
  • 27 April: Official start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication, dissemination or reproduction and deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
  • 30 April: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voters to issue their votes (extended to 1 May by the Central Electoral Commission).
  • 2 May: Last day of official electoral campaigning and deadline for CERA citizens to vote in a ballot box in the relevant consular office or division.[20]
  • 3 May: Official 24-hour ban on political campaigning prior to the general election (reflection day).
  • 4 May: Polling day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote). Provisional counting of votes starts immediately.
  • 7 May: General counting of votes, including the counting of CERA votes.
  • 10 May: Deadline for the general counting of votes to be carried out by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 19 May: Deadline for elected members to be proclaimed by the relevant electoral commission.
  • 28 June: Final deadline for definitive results to be published in the BOCM.

Campaign

[edit]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
PSOE « Hazlo por Madrid »
« No es solo Madrid. Es la democracia »[a] 		"Do it for Madrid"
"It is not just Madrid. It is democracy" 		[36]
[37]
PP « Libertad » "Freedom" [38]
Cs « Elige centro » "Choose centre" [39]
Más Madrid « Por lo que de verdad importa » "For what really matters" [40]
Vox « Protege Madrid » "Protect Madrid" [41]
Podemos–IU « Que hable la mayoría » "Let the majority speak" [42]

Pre-campaign period

[edit]

Right after the announcement of fresh elections, President Díaz Ayuso launched the "Socialism or freedom" and "Communism or freedom" slogans, as a derogatory reference to the policies that left-of-centre parties would apply should they reach the government.[43] Second deputy prime minister of the Spanish government Pablo Iglesias announced that he would be contesting the regional election as lead candidate for his coalition, Unidas Podemos.[44] After an attempt to contest the election in an electoral alliance with Más Madrid, the latter's candidate Mónica García rejected it.[45]

In March 2021, Toni Cantó, former leader of Citizens in the Valencian Community, announced that he would join Díaz Ayuso's candidacy,[46] which was accepted by the Electoral Commission. However, on 11 April the courts banned Cantó from the list for not complying with the needed requirements of being registered in the Community of Madrid ahead of the election call.[47]

Election debates

[edit]
2021 Madrilenian regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[b]    S  Surrogate[c]    A  Absent invitee   AB  Abandoned[d]  
PSOE PP Cs MM Vox UP Audience Ref.
14 April Cuatro
(Todo es Mentira)[e] 		Risto Mejide P
Guardiola 		P
Núñez 		P
Patilla 		P
Rubiño 		A P
Verstrynge 		5.4%
(634,000)[f] 		[48]
[49]
21 April Telemadrid María Rey
Jon Ariztimuño 		P
Gabilondo 		P
Ayuso 		P
Bal 		P
García 		P
Monasterio 		P
Iglesias 		36.3%
(910,000)[g] 		[50]
[51]
23 April Cadena SER Àngels Barceló AB
Gabilondo 		A P
Bal 		AB
García 		P
Monasterio 		AB
Iglesias 		— [52]
[53]
26 April laSexta Ana Pastor Cancelled [54]
[55]
29 April RTVE Undetermined Cancelled [56]
[57]
Opinion polls
Candidate viewed as "performing best" or "most convincing" in each debate
Debate Polling firm/Commissioner PSOE PP Cs MM Vox UP None
21 April Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[58] 10.6 35.5 6.6 23.4 8.5 15.4 –
Metroscopia/El País[59] 6.0 22.0 5.0 15.0 5.0 9.0 6.0

On 23 April, and following a death threat of unknown origin in the form of a menacing mail with four rifle bullets issued to Pablo Iglesias, Interior ministry Fernando Grande-Marlaska and Civil Guard director general María Gámez, a clash ensued between Iglesias and far-right Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio in the Cadena SER debate over the latter's refusal to explicitly condemn the incident. Monasterio accused Iglesias of hypocrisy for refusing to condemn the assaults that Vox members had suffered on the campaign trail, while adding that "Spaniards just don't believe anything [the Spanish government] says" and casting doubts on the veracity of the threat. This prompted Iglesias to walk out of the debate as he argued it risked "whitewashing fascism" and normalizing their arguments, which was followed by PSOE and Más Madrid candidates doing likewise shortly thereafter.[53][60] All three announced their pledge to democracy and their unwillingness to participate in any further debate with Vox unless the party explicitly condemned the threats.[61][62] Immediately following Iglesias's exit from the debate, the PP of incumbent president Isabel Díaz Ayuso—who was notoriously absent from the debate—commented on the incident by publishing a controversial tweet which read as "Iglesias, close the door behind you. 4 May". The tweet was deleted shortly after as a result of the media backlash it provoked, as it was seen as showing the party as supportive of Vox's stance not to condemn the death threat.[63]

From the Cadena SER debate afterwards, the course of the campaign changed. Vox intensified its aggressive campaigning style: after a controversial ad aimed at criminalizing migrant unaccompanied minors, which received criticism for its alleged "racism",[64] as well as Monasterio's performance in the debates being regarded as overtly disrespectful and undemocratic,[65] Vox leader Santiago Abascal overtly questioned the veracity of the death threats and accused Iglesias of being a "crybaby and coward" as well as "fucking spoiled child of Spanish politics".[66][67] PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos regarded Vox's stance as "fascist" and unified their political positions, coordinating themselves in order to turn around the PP's campaign narrative of "communism or freedom" into a "democracy or fascism" message by highlighting the menace of an increasingly radical Vox being the government kingmaker in the aftermath of the election. Until then running a comfortable campaign propelled by favourable opinion polls, Vox's aggressivity placed Ayuso and her PP in a difficult position, as they were now required to distance themselves from the far-right party or face a possible backlash from the left-from-centre electorate.[37][68]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 4 May 2021, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 69 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (67 until January 2021).

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Victory preferences

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Victory likelihood

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Preferred President

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voter turnout

[edit]

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

Region Time
13:00 19:00 20:00
2019 2021 +/– 2019 2021 +/– 2019 2021 +/–
Madrid 26.18% 28.43% +2.25 58.13% 69.27% +11.14 68.08% 76.25% +8.17
Sources[69]

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 4 May 2021 Assembly of Madrid election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 1,631,608 44.76 +22.53 65 +35
More Madrid (Más Madrid) 619,215 16.99 +2.30 24 +4
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 612,622 16.80 –10.51 24 –13
Vox (Vox) 333,403 9.15 +0.27 13 +1
United We Can (Podemos–IU) 263,871 7.24 +1.64 10 +3
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 130,237 3.57 –15.89 0 –26
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 15,692 0.43 –0.33 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 2,765 0.08 New 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 2,563 0.07 –0.03 0 ±0
Seniors in Action (3e en acción) 1,824 0.05 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) 1,681 0.05 –0.03 0 ±0
Zero Cuts–Castilian Party–Commoners'–Green Group (RC–PCAS–TC–GV–M)1 1,679 0.05 –0.01 0 ±0
Volt Spain (Volt) 1,573 0.04 New 0 ±0
Centre Unity (UdeC) 1,481 0.04 New 0 ±0
Self-employed Party (Partido Autónomos) 1,417 0.04 New 0 ±0
Libertarian Party (P–LIB) 1,170 0.03 –0.01 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,139 0.03 –0.04 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 1,014 0.03 –0.02 0 ±0
Coalition for Communist Unity (PCOE–PCPE) 878 0.02 New 0 ±0
Order and Law (POLE) 458 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 19,269 0.53 +0.07
Total 3,645,559 136 +4
Valid votes 3,645,559 99.39 –0.19
Invalid votes 22,247 0.61 +0.19
Votes cast / turnout 3,667,806 71.74 +7.47
Abstentions 1,445,007 28.26 –7.47
Registered voters 5,112,813
Sources[21][70]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 44.76%
Más Madrid
 
 16.99%
PSOE
 
 16.80%
Vox
 
 9.15%
Podemos–IU
 
 7.24%
Cs
 
 3.57%
Others
 
 0.97%
Blank ballots
 
 0.53%
Seats
PP
 
 47.79%
Más Madrid
 
 17.65%
PSOE
 
 17.65%
Vox
 
 9.56%
Podemos–IU
 
 7.35%

Aftermath

[edit]
Further information: Second government of Isabel Díaz Ayuso

The election saw a voter turnout of 71.7%, the highest for a Madrilenian regional election in history, surpassing the previous record in 1995. The People's Party (PP) saw a dramatic increase in support from 30 to 65 seats, four short of an overall majority on its own and greater than a prospective alliance of all three leftist parties in the Assembly, which would have only 58 seats. The PP victory, which doubled its share of the popular vote from its worst historical result in the previous election, came at the expense of Citizens (Cs), whose support collapsed from 19.5% to 3.6%, below the five percent threshold, as well as the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which scored in third place in the region for the first time in history. The PSOE ran what was seen as a lackluster campaign and suffered from the strong performance of the progressive and ecologist Más Madrid. The far-right Vox party was able to resist the PP landslide and remain a decisive force in the government formation process; however, the heavy leverage obtained by the PP from its election result was likely to cast off any prospective coalition agreement between the two parties, allowing the formation of a minority government instead. Ayuso swept all municipalities but two in the region, winning historical PSOE-strongholds like Parla, which resisted the PP's landslides in 2007 and 2011.

Following the announcement of the results, President Isabel Díaz Ayuso claimed to have won the support of Madrilenians to keep applying her policies, whereas Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio announced that her party would allow Ayuso's investiture in order to "stop the left".[71] Podemos candidate Pablo Iglesias announced his retirement from politics after claiming to have been turned into "a scapegoat" who "mobilizes the worst of those who hate democracy".[72] Más Madrid candidate Mónica García accepted her new role as leader of the opposition to Ayuso's government following her second-place performance amid the collapse of Ángel Gabilondo's PSOE.[73]

Investiture
Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP)
Ballot → 18 June 2021
Required majority → 69 out of 136 checkY
Yes
  • • PP (65)
  • • Vox (12)
77 / 136
No
57 / 136
Abstentions
0 / 136
Absentees
2 / 136
Sources[74]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Following the Cadena SER incident and Vox's increasingly aggressive campaigning style, the PSOE rebranded its slogan as "It is not just Madrid. It is democracy" (Spanish: No es solo Madrid. Es la democracia).
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  3. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  4. ^ Denotes an invitee attending the event but abandoning it while underway.
  5. ^ Under 30's debate.
  6. ^ Broadcast nationwide
  7. ^ In the Community of Madrid, the debate was broadcast on laSexta (12.6%, 316,000), Telemadrid (10%, 251,000), La 1 (9.9%, 247,000), LaOtra (2.3%, 57,000), Trece (1%, 26,000) and 24 Horas (0.5%,13.000). Nationwide, the debate was broadcast on laSexta, La 1, Trece and 24 Horas, obtaining a combined audience of 19% (3,325,000).
  8. ^ a b Within a Unidas Podemos+Más Madrid alliance.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Sondeo final de ESdiario: Ayuso logra una mayoría épica y barre a la izquierda". ESdiario (in Spanish). 4 May 2021.
  2. ^ "Oksondeo a pie de urna / Ayuso gobernará: arrasa con 61 escaños, tantos como toda la izquierda junta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 4 May 2021.
  3. ^ "Gran triunfo de Ayuso: habría logrado mayoría absoluta para gobernar Madrid con la suma de Vox". El Español (in Spanish). 4 May 2021.
  4. ^ "Ayuso ganaría con más del doble de escaños pero necesitaría a Vox para gobernar y Cs se queda fuera". RTVE (in Spanish). 4 May 2021.
  5. ^ "Ayuso ganaría las elecciones y lograría mayoría absoluta con Vox, según el sondeo de GAD3 para Telemadrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 4 May 2021.
  6. ^ "Resultado Elecciones Madrid / Ayuso dobla el resultado y tendría mayoría con Vox". La Razón (in Spanish). 4 May 2021.
  7. ^ "ChulaPanel (2M – FINAL): avance exclusivo para patrones". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 May 2021.
  8. ^ "ChulaPanel 2M (Edición Matinal): Maíz Río entra en el margen del empate técnico con Gabiloso y Madroño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 May 2021.
  9. ^ "ChulaPanel (1M): suben Vallecas y Maíz Río, bajan Gabiloso y Mayuso". Electomanía (in Spanish). 1 May 2021.
  10. ^ "ChulaPanel (30A): ChulaPanel (30A): bajada de Gabiloso y madroño, suben IgleSian Silvestre vallecana y Plaza Mayuso". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 April 2021.
  11. ^ "ChulaPanel (29A): subida de Maíz Río". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2021.
  12. ^ "Estimación 28 de Abril de 2021 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  13. ^ "La izquierda se moviliza y se pone por delante en la recta final de la campaña en Madrid". El Plural (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  14. ^ "La amenaza fascista 'fake' no engaña a los madrileños: Ayuso avanza hacia una amplia mayoría con Vox". OKDiario (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  15. ^ "Sondeo ESdiario: Ayuso afianza su mayoría aplastante ante una izquierda exhausta". ESdiario (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  16. ^ a b "CAMPanel (28A): bajón del PSOE, subida de Más Madrid". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  17. ^ "Último sondeo. Cs pende de un hilo: Ayuso arrasa pero puede quedar en manos de Vox". El Español (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  18. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 28/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 6,8% (9), MÁS MADRID 16,4% (22/24), PSOE 19,4% (26/28), Cs 4,5% (0/7), PP 41,9% (58/61), VOX 10,1% (13/15)". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  19. ^ "Ayuso necesitaría a Vox para gobernar y la izquierda podría aprovecharse del sprint final de Más Madrid". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). 27 April 2021.
  20. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Ágora Integral 27/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,8% (11), MÁS MADRID 16,9% (24/25), PSOE 23,1% (32/33), Cs 3,0%, PP 40,2% (57/58), VOX 8,2% (11/12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 April 2021.
  21. ^ "Últimas encuestas Madrid: Ayuso ganará holgadamente y el bloque de izquierdas no podrá sumar mayoría absoluta". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  22. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 28/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,6% (11), MÁS MADRID 15,1% (21), PSOE 22,0% (32), Cs 3,7%, PP 41,3% (60), VOX 8,6% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  23. ^ "Ayuso sumará mayoría absoluta con Vox". La Razón (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  24. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 28/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,8% (11), MÁS MADRID 14,8% (21), PSOE 23,3% (33), Cs 3,6%, PP 41,3% (59), VOX 8,7% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  25. ^ "Ayuso supera a las tres izquierdas juntas y consolida la mayoría con Vox". ABC (in Spanish). 27 April 2021.
  26. ^ "Último barómetro electoral de ABC para las elecciones madrileñas del 4 de mayo". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  27. ^ a b "El PP consigue la mayoría con los votos de Vox". Última Hora (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  28. ^ a b "Elecciones C.A.M.: PP podrá gobernar aunque no llegue a entrar C's, mientras Más Madrid desangra a PSOE y a UP". DYM (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  29. ^ a b "Ayuso dobla sus resultados de 2019 pero necesita a Vox para gobernar". El País (in Spanish). 26 April 2021.
  30. ^ "Isabel Díaz Ayuso consolida su mayoría a una semana del 4-M al amarrar el voto de centroderecha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 April 2021.
  31. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 28/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 8,1% (11), MÁS MADRID 16,5% (23/24), PSOE 21,4% (30/31), Cs 4,1%, PP 41,0% (59), VOX 8,4% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  32. ^ "Ayuso continúa lejos de la mayoría absoluta y necesitará a Vox para gobernar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  33. ^ "CAMPanel (24A): subida de Gabilondo y ligera bajada de Ayuso tras el debate en la Ser". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 April 2021.
  34. ^ "Barómetro de laSexta: Ayuso se quedaría a 6 escaños de la mayoría absoluta el 4M y el bloque de izquierdas no lograría gobernar". laSexta (in Spanish). 28 April 2021.
  35. ^ "Elecciones 4-M: La izquierda se moviliza pero no suma". La Razón (in Spanish). 26 April 2021.
  36. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 26/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 8,2% (11), MÁS MADRID 14,4% (20), PSOE 23,5% (33), Cs 2,8%, PP 41,6% (60), VOX 8,8% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 April 2021.
  37. ^ "Ayuso resiste en el ecuador de la campaña con un PSOE a la baja y en un escenario abierto, según las encuestas". Público (in Spanish). 24 April 2021.
  38. ^ "CAMPanel express (22A): el debate beneficia a Mónica García y a Monasterio. Ayuso, no se mueve. Bajada de PSOE y UP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  39. ^ "Ayuso sube hasta los 62 escaños y con Vox ya está 4 por encima de la mayoría absoluta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 26 April 2021.
  40. ^ "Gabilondo cae 2 escaños mientras un Más Madrid al alza casi duplica los de Iglesias". OKDiario (in Spanish). 26 April 2021.
  41. ^ "Empate técnico entre los bloques de derecha e izquierda en la campaña para elecciones de la Comunidad de Madrid". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  42. ^ "Primer sondeo tras el debate: Ayuso continúa subiendo, Iglesias baja y Cs se mantiene en el 5%". El Español (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  43. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 23/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 6,8% (8), MÁS MADRID 13,9% (19), PSOE 22,7% (31), Cs 5,2% (7), PP 40,2% (56), VOX 10,6% (15)". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  44. ^ a b "CAMPanel (21A): subida de 1p de Más Madrid, bajón del PSOE. Vox recupera terreno y UP se estanca". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 April 2021.
  45. ^ a b c d e "Tendencias de voto en la Comunidad de Madrid 2021 (Estudio nº 3320. Abril 2021)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  46. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3320. Abril 2021)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  47. ^ "Sondeo ESdiario: Ayuso arrasa sola a toda la izquierda con participación récord". ESdiario (in Spanish). 20 April 2021.
  48. ^ "Pablo Iglesias baja y lastra las opciones de la izquierda de destronar a Isabel Díaz Ayuso". El Mundo (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  49. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 23/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,2% (9/10), MÁS MADRID 15,1% (21/23), PSOE 22,6% (31/32), Cs 4,2% (0/7), PP 40,5% (56/59), VOX 9,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  50. ^ "Estimación Abril 3 de 2021 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 21 April 2021.
  51. ^ "Encuestas Madrid: Ayuso ganaría de forma holgada las elecciones, pero necesitaría a Vox para conseguir la mayoría absoluta, según los últimos sondeos". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  52. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 22/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,3% (10), MÁS MADRID 14,3% (21), PSOE 23,0% (32), Cs 4,3%, PP 41,8% (61), VOX 8,4% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 22 April 2021.
  53. ^ "CAMPanel (17A – exclusivo patrones): Se acentúan las tendencias. Subida de PP, MM y Cs, que se acerca al 5%. Bajada de PSOE, Vox y UP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 April 2021.
  54. ^ "La suma de PP y Vox obtendría mayoría absoluta en las elecciones autonómicas en Madrid". Top Position (in Spanish). 20 April 2021.
  55. ^ "Ayuso arrasa a Sánchez: se coloca a 27 escaños del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 19 April 2021.
  56. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 19/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 8,2% (12), MÁS MADRID 12,7% (18), PSOE 23,6% (34), Cs 4,8%, PP 41,9% (61), VOX 8,1% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 April 2021.
  57. ^ "Los bloques de derecha e izquierda siguen muy igualados al inicio de la campaña para las elecciones en Madrid". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). 18 April 2021.
  58. ^ a b "Ayuso, a sólo cinco escaños de la mayoría absoluta en solitario". NIUS (in Spanish). 19 April 2021.
  59. ^ "Barómetro sociopolítico NIUS. Estimación de voto para las elecciones autonómicas de la Comunidad de Madrid". GAD3 (in Spanish). 19 April 2021.
  60. ^ "Ayuso sube hasta los 62 escaños y con Vox ya está 4 por encima de la mayoría absoluta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 19 April 2021.
  61. ^ "El desplome de Ángel Gabilondo blinda a Isabel Díaz Ayuso e impide a la izquierda ser alternativa". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 April 2021.
  62. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 18/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 8,1% (11/12), MÁS MADRID 14,9% (20/22), PSOE 21,1% (29/31), Cs 4,5% (0/7), PP 40,9% (56/60), VOX 9,4% (13/14)". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 April 2021.
  63. ^ a b "CAMPanel (14A): suben PP y Más Madrid, bajan PSOE y UP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 April 2021.
  64. ^ "El 'efecto Vallecas' sólo añade un escaño a Vox mientras Pablo Iglesias sigue cuesta abajo". El Español (in Spanish). 15 April 2021.
  65. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 15/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,0% (9), MÁS MADRID 13,1% (18), PSOE 23,1% (32), Cs 5,4% (7), PP 39,6% (55), VOX 11,1% (15)". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 April 2021.
  66. ^ "Encuestas Elecciones Madrid: Ayuso supera los 60 escaños y está más cerca de la mayoría absoluta". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 13 April 2021.
  67. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 13/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,2% (10), MÁS MADRID 12,5% (18), PSOE 25,2% (32), Cs 4,5%, PP 41,7% (61), VOX 8,2% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 April 2021.
  68. ^ a b "Encuesta elecciones Madrid 2021: Ayuso ganaría de calle pese a la división sobre su gestión". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 April 2021.
  69. ^ "Estimación Abril 2 de 2021 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 14 April 2021.
  70. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 14/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,1% (10), MÁS MADRID 11,8% (16/17), PSOE 24,7% (35), Cs 2,8%, PP 41,4% (59/60), VOX 10,4% (15)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 April 2021.
  71. ^ "CAMPanel (10A): subida de Más Madrid y de Ciudadanos, que roza el 4%. Bajan UP y Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 April 2021.
  72. ^ "Adelanto encuesta electoral de Madrid: Sin "efecto Iglesias": la izquierda no suma y retrocede tres escaños desde el 2019". La Razón (in Spanish). 11 April 2021.
  73. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 12/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 8,6% (12), MÁS MADRID 10,3% (14), PSOE 25,5% (35), Cs 5,1% (7), PP 41,7% (58), VOX 7,9% (10)". La Razón (in Spanish). 12 April 2021.
  74. ^ "Ayuso saca mayoría absoluta raspada con Vox, Más Madrid deja atrás a Iglesias y Cs desaparece". OKDiario (in Spanish). 12 April 2021.
  75. ^ "Ayuso doblega al 'sanchismo' y supera la amyoría absoluta con Vox". ABC (in Spanish). 11 April 2021.
  76. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta GAD3 11/04/2021: PODEMOS-IU 7,0% (10), MÁS MADRID 12,8% (17/19), PSOE 23,2% (33/34), Cs 2,9%, PP 43,3% (62/63), VOX 8,4% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 April 2021.
  77. ^ a b "CAMPanel (7A): Ayuso sigue subiendo y alcanza los 60 escaños. Sorpasso de UP a Vox mientras MM se aleja". Electomanía (in Spanish). 7 April 2021.
  78. ^ "Ciudadanos aguanta en el filo del 5% y bloquea el ascenso de la izquierda en favor de Ayuso". El Español (in Spanish). 8 April 2021.
  79. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 08/04/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 7,7% (10), MÁS MADRID 13,8% (19), PSOE 23,3% (32), Cs 5,1% (7), PP 38,8% (54), VOX 9,9% (14)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 April 2021.
  80. ^ "Ayuso se acerca a su techo y el bloque de izquierdas no logra beneficiarse de la caída de Ciudadanos, según las encuestas". Público (in Spanish). 10 April 2021.
  81. ^ "CAMPanel (31M): se deshace el triple empate entre MM-UP-Vox. Cs sube, pero aún estaría fuera". Electomanía (in Spanish). 1 April 2021.
  82. ^ "Estimación Abril 1 de 2021 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  83. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 03/04/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 6,4% (9), MÁS MADRID 11,0% (16), PSOE 26,9% (39/40), Cs 4,4%, PP 37,7% (55), VOX 11,6% (16/17)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  84. ^ "Ayuso sigue creciendo a costa de Vox, Más Madrid lo hace a cuenta de Iglesias y Cs resiste en el 5%". El Español (in Spanish). 1 April 2021.
  85. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 01/04/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 7,5% (10), MÁS MADRID 13,2% (18), PSOE 22,7% (31), Cs 5,3% (7), PP 39,6% (55), VOX 11,0% (15)". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 April 2021.
  86. ^ "Isabel Díaz Ayuso concentra el voto útil y se dispara hacia una gran mayoría a un mes de las elecciones en Madrid". El Mundo (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  87. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 04/04/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 8,0% (11/12), MÁS MADRID 13,3% (18/20), PSOE 22,8% (33/35), Cs 4,1%, PP 42,8% (61/62), VOX 7,5% (10/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  88. ^ "Encuestas Elecciones Madrid: Ayuso ganaría aunque necesitaría a Vox y probablemente a Ciudadanos para gobernar". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 30 March 2021.
  89. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 30/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 8,2% (11), MÁS MADRID 10,0% (14), PSOE 26,8% (37), Cs 5,2% (7), PP 39,2% (54), VOX 9,9% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 March 2021.
  90. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2021. Comunidad de Madrid (Estudio nº 3317. Marzo 2021)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 April 2021.
  91. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3317. Marzo 2021)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 April 2021.
  92. ^ "Ayuso e Iglesias enfilan una batalla a dos ante el 4-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 29 March 2021.
  93. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 29/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 9,2% (12), MÁS MADRID 9,5% (13), PSOE 26,0% (36), Cs 5,1% (7), PP 40,1% (56), VOX 9,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 March 2021.
  94. ^ "Barómetro laSexta. Ayuso ganaría las elecciones en Madrid y sumaría mayoría absoluta con Vox". laSexta (in Spanish). 26 March 2021.
  95. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Invymark 26/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 7,3% (10), MÁS MADRID 10,6% (15), PSOE 26,3% (38), Cs 4,6%, PP 40,4% (59), VOX 9,5% (14)". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 March 2021.
  96. ^ a b "CAMPanel (24M): triple empate UP-MM-Vox. Ayuso baja y Cs sube ligeramente". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 March 2021.
  97. ^ "Pablo Iglesias 'rebota hacia abajo': pierde la mitad del apoyo que ganó al anunciar su candidatura". El Español (in Spanish). 25 March 2021.
  98. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 25/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 7,9% (11), MÁS MADRID 12,1% (17), PSOE 22,1% (31), Cs 5,1% (7), PP 38,1% (53), VOX 12,4% (17)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 March 2021.
  99. ^ "Encuesta: El PP y Vox alcanzarían la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones de Madrid". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 23 March 2021.
  100. ^ "Estimación 21-22-Marzo de 2021 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 24 March 2021.
  101. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 24/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 7,2% (10), MÁS MADRID 12,0% (17/18), PSOE 27,2% (40), Cs 4,6%, PP 35,6% (52/53), VOX 11,1% (16)". Electograph (in Spanish). 24 March 2021.
  102. ^ "Iglesias se estrella en las elecciones de Madrid: ni desbanca a Errejón ni suma con el PSOE para gobernar". La Razón (in Spanish). 21 March 2021.
  103. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 22/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 8,9% (12), MÁS MADRID 9,6% (13), PSOE 26,3% (37), Cs 5,4% (7), PP 39,6% (55), VOX 9,2% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 22 March 2021.
  104. ^ "ChulaPanel (17M): Subida de Ayuso e Iglesias en la CAM. En el Ayuntamiento, Almeida necesitaría a Vox para tener mayoría y Villacís se quedaría sin escaño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  105. ^ "Ayuso pasará de 30 a 54 escaños y está a uno de la mayoría absoluta junto a Vox". OKDiario (in Spanish). 19 March 2021.
  106. ^ a b "El 'efecto Iglesias' fortalece a Ayuso, que rozaría la mayoría absoluta con Vox". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  107. ^ a b c d e "Barómetro Comunidad de Madrid (marzo)". DYM (in Spanish). 18 March 2021.
  108. ^ "La irrupción de Iglesias hunde a Gabilondo y deja a Ayuso como única posible ganadora en Madrid". El Español (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  109. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 17/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 11,0% (15), MÁS MADRID 11,3% (16), PSOE 21,8% (30), Cs 5,5% (7), PP 36,2% (51), VOX 12,3% (17)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  110. ^ a b "El PP obtendría 65 escaños en Madrid frente a los 15 de Podemos, según la encuesta de GAD3 para 'El programa de Ana Rosa'". Telecinco (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  111. ^ "Encuesta para 'El Programa de Ana Rosa': Elecciones Autonómicas de Madrid". GAD3 (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  112. ^ "Estimación 15-Marzo de 2021 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021. TRACKING FLASH". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 16 March 2021.
  113. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 16/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 9,6% (13/14), MÁS MADRID 11,0% (15), PSOE 22,4% (32), Cs 2,3%, PP 36,0% (51/52), VOX 16,7% (24)". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 March 2021.
  114. ^ "CAMPanel 15M: Ayuso sube tras la candidatura de Iglesias. La unión de UP y MM perjudicaría al PSOE y catapultaría a Ayuso a niveles superiores a los de Feijoo en Galicia". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 March 2021.
  115. ^ "Díaz Ayuso dobla sus escaños y logra una mayoría por la mínima con Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  116. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 17/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 6,9% (9/10), MÁS MADRID 9,8% (13/14), PSOE 27,5% (37/38), Cs 5,6% (6/7), PP 39,5% (55/56), VOX 9,4% (12/13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 March 2021.
  117. ^ "Cs se hunde pero tendría la llave del Gobierno de la Comunidad de Madrid". La Razón (in Spanish). 14 March 2021.
  118. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 14/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 5,2% (7), MÁS MADRID 12,8% (18), PSOE 27,6% (38), Cs 6,3% (8), PP 33,2% (46), VOX 13,7% (19)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 March 2021.
  119. ^ "Intención de voto en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea de Madrid el próximo 4 de mayo". ABC (in Spanish). 12 March 2021.
  120. ^ "Encuesta GAD3 para ABC. Elecciones en Madrid". GAD3 (in Spanish). 13 March 2021.
  121. ^ "Sondeo ESdiario: Ayuso va disparada a la mayoría absoluta con Vox y Cs se hunde". ESdiario (in Spanish). 11 March 2021.
  122. ^ "Ayuso arrasará el 4-M, aunque necesitará a Vox para gobernar Madrid". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 12 March 2021.
  123. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Metroscopia 12/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 4,9% (0/7), MÁS MADRID 11,0% (16), PSOE 28,4% (41/43), Cs 4,0%, PP 41,0% (59/63), VOX 9,3% (13/14)". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 March 2021.
  124. ^ "Estimación Marzo 2021. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 4 de Mayo de 2021. TRACKING FLASH". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 11 March 2021.
  125. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 11/03/2021: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 5,2% (7), MÁS MADRID 11,3% (15/16), PSOE 25,5% (36), Cs 5,3% (7), PP 28,8% (40/41), VOX 21,7% (30)". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 March 2021.
  126. ^ "Ayuso ganará las elecciones pero PP y Vox se quedan a 6 escaños de la mayoría absoluta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 11 March 2021.
  127. ^ "CAMPanel (10M): Cs fuera del Parlamento. EMPATE PERFECTO entre bloques que dejarían la Asamblea en bloqueo". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 March 2021.
  128. ^ "Una encuesta de Cs da ganador en Madrid al PP, que no podría gobernar sin el partido de Ignacio Aguado". El País (in Spanish). 11 March 2021.
  129. ^ "Ayuso ganaría las elecciones en la Comunidad de Madrid pero no podría prescindir de Aguado ni de Vox". Público (in Spanish). 7 November 2020.
  130. ^ "Ayuso y Vox crecen a costa de Cs pero Aguado seguirá teniendo la llave de la Comunidad de Madrid". El Español (in Spanish). 19 October 2020.
  131. ^ "El acoso de Sánchez dispara a Ayuso, que ganaría con 15 escaños más, mientras el PSOE se deja uno". OKDiario (in Spanish). 13 October 2020.
  132. ^ "La batalla con Sánchez dispara a Ayuso". La Razón (in Spanish). 12 October 2020.
  133. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta NC Report 12/10/2020: UNIDAS PODEMOS-IU 5,4% (7), MÁS MADRID 12,1% (16), PSOE 26,9% (37), Cs 12,3% (16), PP 33,1% (45), VOX 8,7% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 October 2020.
  134. ^ "CAMPanel (9oct): la intervención de Madrid perjudica más a Aguado que a Ayuso, que sale reforzada políticamente". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 October 2020.
  135. ^ "Ayuso sube y podría gobernar de nuevo con los apoyos de Vox y Ciudadanos". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  136. ^ a b "Barómetro sociopolítico Comunidad de Madrid (octubre)". DYM (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  137. ^ "Estimación Septiembre 2020. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 April 2020.
  138. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 07/10/2020: UP-IU 5,8% (7/8), MÁS MADRID 14,1% (19), PSOE 25,0% (34), Cs 9,1% (12), PP 27,7% (37/38), VOX 16,2% (22)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 October 2020.
  139. ^ a b "CAMPanel (2Oct): la polémica en torno a las restricciones por COVID impulsan a Ayuso, que sube 2,5p en un mes". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 October 2020.
  140. ^ "Díaz Ayuso ganaría hoy las elecciones en Madrid con dos diputados más que el PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 September 2020.
  141. ^ "Ayuso ganaría las elecciones en Madrid, pero sigue necesitando a Ciudadanos y Vox para gobernar". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 24 June 2020.
  142. ^ "Ayuso ganaría hoy las elecciones en Madrid, pero seguiría necesitando a Cs y a Vox para gobernar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 24 June 2020.
  143. ^ "EP (17My): Com. Madrid – Ayuso 'lo peta' y podría gobernar con Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  144. ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  145. ^ "La campaña antiAyuso gripa: ganaría hoy las elecciones con 10 escaños más y seguiría de presidenta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 13 May 2020.
  146. ^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta Hamalgama Métrica 13/05/2020: UP-IU 6,6% (9), MÁS MADRID 10,8% (14), PSOE 27,4% (37), Cs 13,9% (19), PP 29,9% (40), VOX 9,8% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 May 2020.
  147. ^ "El PP se dispara en la Comunidad de Madrid y Ciudadanos se hunde". ABC (in Spanish). 2 May 2020.
  148. ^ "Barómetro de ABC/GAD3 Comunidad de Madrid y Ayuntamiento de Madrid (2 y 3 de mayo)". GAD3 (in Spanish). 2 May 2020.
  149. ^ "Estimación Abril 2020. Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 April 2020.
  150. ^ "CAMPanel (3A): desplome de Más Madrid, que se queda sin escaños. Ayuso seguiría al frente de la CAM, si Vox, que alcanza a Cs, lo permite". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2020.
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