Climate change in Washington

This page contains information about climate change that is specific to the state of Washington. At least initially it is being edited as a Class projectat the University of Washington that focuses on environmental economics.

Science

The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington studies the impacts of climate change in the Pacific Northwest states of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.

Need to summarize climate projections, focusing on drivers of the economic impacts.

Economic impacts

The CIG projections of climate impacts in Washington were the basis for a state-commissioned report, Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Washington State (2007), that summarized impacts on forest fires, public health, agriculture, municipal water supply, sea level rise and fisheries. Rising temperatures are contributing to decreased snowfall and increased rain during winter months. This is in turn is leading to a decrease in the winter snowpack. The snowpack maintains winter precipitation at higher altitudes where it acts as a bank, slowly releasing water during dryer months. With a decrease in snowpack levels, Washington state is seeing earlier peak flows in area streams and rivers, increased flooding, and the possibility of a loss of irrigation and drinking water. Also affected would be the areas threatened salmon runs. As local water districts look at increasing water storage in area dams and resevoirs a push to consider the effects of increased water control on Washington's famed salmon is currently underway. With the exception of the first sentence, this material belongs elsewhere. All this section needs to do is introduce the subsections below. The rest of this should either go up above in Science or be integrated below in the topic areas.

This is a clip that ties climate change with our economical resources and the risks for the future. This demonstrates a basic model of the different out comes we could face. - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ - Does this belong here? Remember, this page focuses on climate change in Washington.

Forest resources

A main part of Washington's economy is it's forestlands. Out of Washington State’s 43 million acres, 22 million acres are classified as forestland "Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee (JLARC), State of Washington. 2005. Department of Natural Resources Fire Suppression Study, Report 05-11". These forestlands support a great variety and number of economic activities, from timber production to the protection of freshwater supplies and wildlife habitat. In 2002, total employment in lumber, wood products, and pulp and paper was 43,700 "Blatner, K.A., C.E. Keegan III, S.R. Shook, and F.G. Wagner. 2003. Washington’s Forest Products Industry: Current Conditions and Forecast 2003 (Pullman, Wash.: Washington State University Cooperative Extension)". [1]

Consequently, if climate change affects these forestlands than the economy will be affected as well. Higher temperatures will directly affect tree growth, pest impacts, and wildfire [2]. Higher temperatures will result in the snow pack in Washington’s mountains melting earlier in the spring, creating a longer fire season. It is predicted that an average year in the 2020s will have a 50 percent increase in the number of acres burned (as compared to an average year in the 20th century), and an average year in the 2040s is projected to have a 100 percent increase in the number of acres burned. As an economic result, the Department of Natural Resource’s cost for fire preparedness and response are projected to increase from around $12 million to over $18 million in the 2020s and to $24 million in the 2040s. If other state and federal expenditures related to fire also increases in the same manner than direct state costs could rise from $26 million to over $39 million in the 2020s and to $52 million in the 2040s, and federal expenditures could rise from $24 million to over $36 million in the 2020s and to $48 million in the 2040s. [3]

Increased spending on wild fires will not be the only economic impact due to climate change on Washington’s forest resources. There may be economic losses due to lost timber value, lost recreational expenditures, and health and environmental costs related to air pollution and other forest changes, which could far surpass costs of wildfires. [4]

This is getting much better. It needs some editing (e.g., "it's" should be "its" in the first sentence). And somebody needs to figure out how to do footnotes so that the citations aren't in the way; also, sources that are available online should be linked so that readers can find them. (Regarding footnotes, note that the Coastal Watershed section below has figured out half of this---it's got a footnote marker... but no footnote :) Finally: it would be great to tighten this up to one paragraph.

Electricity

Climate change will have an effect on both the supply and demand of electricity in Washington. Energy Information Administration The biggest factors that will determine the extent of the effects are annual temperature changes, and the change in peak snow pack melt and stream flow. A change in the amount of precipitation could also have and effect on electricity supply and demand, but dramatic changes in rain fall are not expected. Annual temperatures are predicted to increase by 2°F by the 2020’s, and 3°F in the 2040’s. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council predicts a 300 megawatt (about 1% of Washington’s generating capacity) reduction in electricity demands during the winter for each 1°F. [5] However, summer demands would likely increase due to more widespread need for air conditioning in order to keep homes and businesses cool. Estimates for the demand growth of additional air conditioning units are not yet known. Washington State’s reliance on hydropower (72% of electricity) means that changes in peak snow pack melt and stream flows are important to the supply of electricity. Currently, peak stream flows are in the summer. Snow pack is likely to melt earlier in the future due to the climate change, shifting the peak stream flow to late winter and early spring, with decreased summer stream flow. This would result in an increased availability of electricity in the early spring, when demand is dampened, and a decreased availability in the summer, when the demand may be highest. University of Washington researchers have estimated a revenue impact of 5% or less ($165 million).[6] Hydropower is more susceptible to climate change impacts than other sources of electricity, so consumers may be subject to greater rate increases than consumers in other states. [7]

This is _great_. I'd suggest dividing this into three paragraphs: the first sentence, a paragraph on supply, and a paragraph on demand. Also: the NW Council citations are fabulous, and since they're a public agency you can use their charts and graphs without fear of copyright infringement. Are there any graphics on their website worth replicating here?

Municipal water supply

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Agriculture

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change and natural weather occurences, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. This claim has no citation. What's the source for this information? Also: in my opinion this should be a short-and-sweet into to ag in Washington---how important is to the state's economy, etc. Then we can get right to the details below.

Yakima Valley

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Dairy production

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Wine

The wine industry is another agricultural sector expected to be affected in adverse ways by climate change. Following California, Washington is the nation’s second largest wine producing state. In 2004, winegrapes accounted for $127.5 million and were the state's 4th largest fruit group in terms of value. In 2005, the wine industry as a whole was a $3 billion industry, providing the equivalent of 14,000 full-time jobs. While it is a relatively young industry within the state (introduced in the 1960s), it has been consecutively gaining momentum. However, climate change threatens to negatively impact Washington’s wine industry. [8] These paragraphs contain some great, info, but I think you could combine them into one paragraph. Note, for example, that the first and last sentences in this opening paragraph are both boilerplate---they don't really say much.

The Yakima and Mid-Columbia valleys are the most heavily vineyard populated regions. The predicted water shortage in the next several decades due to earlier snow melts and less availability later in the season could mean a crop loss increase from $13 million to $79 million by the middle of the century. For wine, or for all crops, or ??? I think you're confusing different sections of the report Because wine varieties are highly sensitive to temperatures, increased temperatures could cause some Eastern Washington areas to move out of the ideal range for certain winegrape varietals, but at the same time could make western areas, such as Puget Sound, more ideal. A shift of vineyard concentration to the coastal regions of Washington state would mean a shift in local land value and use, production, revenue and employment. Such a shift would be due to an increase in average temperature, but scientists’ main concern is not the gradual increase in means, but that global climate change will most likely cause more instances of extreme weather. Increased instances of extreme weather would result in greater loses for vineyards, especially those grown east of the Cascade Mountain Range. [9] [10]

Coastal Watershed

The Climate Impacts Group has worked to study the factors that affect the coastal regions. These factors include forestry practices and in other ways the land is being used. To help protect coastal waters there has been a reforestation act that states that satisfactory Reforestation must take place with in years after logging. This is a great footnote marker... but there's no footnote :) Also, the BBC and other media sources are poor citations to use because you risk getting into an extended game of Telephone where the underlying message gets garbled. Finally, what does reforestation have to do with climate change? Stay on-target...

Snow sports

For a certain type of adventure seekers, the cold, dreary months of Washington do not entail misery. Instead, they mark the largely anticipated snowboarding, skiing, and snowshoeing seasons. However, climate change, or more specifically, the rise in temperatures across the mountain regions, will only allow for more rain and not snow. This change leads to earlier melting of a heavily desired snowpack, which is responsible not only for the avid snowboarder's ideal slopes, but more importantly, for Washington's water supply. The breakdown of the snowpack occurs in early Spring when it is not needed, leaving the Summer months thirsty and dry. "Reduced Snowpack and Earlier Runnoff". Washington is subject to disaster as it relies on glaciers and mountain snow pack to satiate summer stream flows. Scientists recognize that Washington's snow fall is fairly unpredictable from year to year, but they also suggest that there is substantial evidence revealing Washington's vulnerability to climate change. Certain trends accredit these claims including, but are not limited to:

    A. The occurrence of multiple droughts since 1971. Between 2000 and 2005, Washington experienced two drought emergencies.  
    B. The average mountain snow pack in the North Cascades has declined at 73 percent of studied mountain sites. 
    C. Mountain glaciers in the North Cascades have depleted nearly 18 to 32 percent of their total volume
    since 1983.
    D. 53 glaciers in the North Cascades have disappeared since the 1950s. "Facts about Washington’s retreating glaciers and declining snow pack."

Cut to the chase---no flowery language. Can you find any quantitative information that relate specifically to snow sports? Also, the ABCD at the end---they're interesting, but how are they related to snow sports?

Other economic impacts

Due to the estimated half degree increase in temperature each decade described in the report, Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Washington State (2007), it will cause flooding in many of Washington’s coastal areas. As global temperatures rise, it causes the oceans to warm up and expand. Ice caps and glaciers also melt and the amount of rain increases and at the same time, the amount of snow decreases. “Rising Sea Level.”. All of these factors contribute to the rise in sea level, which is what causes flooding. Homes and businesses within reach of tidewater and low-lying agricultural areas in Washington are at high risks for flooding. Parts of Tacoma and Olympia are at higher risks than other cities like Seattle, since many areas in Tacoma and Olympia are built just a few feet above sea level. It is said that “shipping terminals, marinas, docks, and recreational facilities associated with coastal port districts are places where impacts will reach more deeply into the state’s economy through effects on commercial and recreational activities” Impacts of Climate Change on Washington’s Economy p.65. Sea level rise is important enough that it deserves its own sub-section. Also, can you quantify how much sea level rise is projected to occur?

Greenhouse gas emissions

The state government regularly publishes greenhouse gas inventories, most recently Washington's Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sources and Trends" (December 2006, revised 2/12/07).

Washington generated most of its energy from hydropower until 1972 when a coal plant in Centralia opened. Naturally, this caused CO₂ emissions to increase. Emissions remained steady until the early 1990's when natural gas was introduced into the spectrum of energy generation, again causing CO₂ emissions to rise. Electric energy generation is responsible for approximately one-third on the total increase of CO₂ emissions that Washington has seen. In 2006, electricity generate was responsible for twenty percent of all Green House Gas (GHG) emissions.

Transportation is the main cause of GHG emissions in Washington state. It is accountable for forty-three percent of all emissions. Are these two paragraphs from the CTED report cited in the first paragraph? It's not clear. And can this material be combined into one paragraph? And can you add any cool figures from the CTED report?

Mitigation

The Western Climate Initiative (WCI) is working to develop regional strategies to mitigate climate change in 6 states of the western US, including Washington, and in the western-most provinces of Canada. It's main thrust as of 2008 is to develop a region-wide multi-sector cap-and-trade program. All meetings are open to the public via the web. It's Wiki page is here: Western_Climate_Initiative.

See also

• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
• Climate change
• Global warming
• Cascadia
• United States federal register of greenhouse gas emissions
• Pacific Northwest
• Carbon footprint
• History of the west coast of North America
• Global warming controversy
• Kyoto Protocol
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Carbon dioxide
• Greenhouse gas
• Attribution of recent climate change
• List of countries by ratio of GDP to carbon dioxide emissions

External links

• US EPA climate change and global warming website
• UN Climate Change Website.
• A Public Debate on the Science of Global Warming: Dr. James E. Hansen and Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, November 20, 1998.
• Thacker, Paul D. (31 August 2005). "How the Wall Street Journal and Rep. Barton celebrated a global-warming skeptic". Environmental Science & Technology. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• CO₂ or Solar? A discussion about the evidence for anthropogenic warming and the possible role of solar activity increase.
• Kyoto protocol based on flawed statistics by Marcel Croc, translation by Angela den Tex, Natuurwetenschap & Techniek, February, 2005.
• "The Economics of Climate Change Volume I: Report" (PDF). House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs. 6 July 2005. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)

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