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Redskins Rule

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The Redskins Rule is a trend involving NFL football and United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there is a high correlation between the outcome of the most recent Washington Redskins football game and the U.S. Presidential Election: when the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins the popular vote for the White House. This coincidence has been noted by many sports and political commentators.[1][2]

History

The Redskins moved to Washington in 1937. Since then, there have been 18 presidential elections. In 17 of those, the following rule applied:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election. If the Redskins lose, the challenging party's candidate wins.

The Redskins Rule was first noted by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau, in 2000[2]

In 2004, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating the incumbent should have lost; however, George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt, credited with the discovery of the rule, then modified it to refer not to the incumbent party in the White House but to the party that last won the popular vote. In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote, and thereby the revised Redskin Rule has been upheld [clarification needed].[2] However, this would just shift the error from 2004 to 2000, since the Democrats won the 1996 popular vote and should have lost as a result of the Redskins' loss that year.

On November 3, 2008, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, thereby predicting a win for Illinois Senator Barack Obama over Arizona Senator John McCain (as George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004).[1]

Results

Year Presidential Election Result Redskins (Score) Opponent (Score) Redskins win or lose?/Day of game Incumbent party keeps or loses White House?/time of game Rule upheld?
2012 United States presidential election, 2012 Redskins Carolina Nov.4 1pm ET TBD
2008 Barack Obama defeats John McCain Redskins 6 Pittsburgh 23 lose lose yes
2004 George W. Bush defeats John Kerry Redskins 14 Green Bay 28 lose keep via retrofit*
2000 George W. Bush defeats Al Gore Redskins 21 Tennessee 27 lose lose yes
1996 Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole Redskins 31 Indianapolis 16 win keep yes
1992 Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush Redskins 7 New York Giants 24 lose lose yes
1988 George H.W. Bush defeats Michael Dukakis Redskins 27 New Orleans 24 win keep yes
1984 Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale Redskins 27 Atlanta 14 win keep yes
1980 Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter Redskins 14 Minnesota 39 lose lose yes
1976 Jimmy Carter defeats Gerald Ford Redskins 7 Dallas 20 lose lose yes
1972 Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern Redskins 35 New York Jets 17 win keep yes
1968 Richard Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey Redskins 10 New York Giants 13 lose lose yes
1964 Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater Redskins 27 Chicago 20 win keep yes
1960 John Kennedy defeats Richard Nixon Redskins 10 Cleveland 31 lose lose yes
1956 Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson Redskins 17 Chicago Cardinals 14 win keep yes
1952 Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson Redskins 23 Pittsburgh 24 lose lose yes
1948 Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey Redskins 51 Boston Yanks 21 win keep yes
1944 Franklin Roosevelt defeats Thomas Dewey Redskins 42 Chi-Pitt 20 win keep yes
1940 Franklin Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie Redskins 37 Pittsburgh 10 win keep yes

^ Although the incumbent party won the election, which would break the rule, the incumbent party had not won the popular vote in the previous election, thereby generating an alternate variant of the rule which was actually upheld. Although if you follow this alternative, the rule would have been broken in 2000.

References

  1. ^ a b "Redskins loss points to Obama win". BBC Sport. British Broadcasting Corporation. 2008-11-04.
  2. ^ a b c "Redskins Rule ideal for 'Monday Night'". Washington Times. 2008-11-04.
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