Informe Bolsa OHL
Informe Bolsa OHL
Informe Bolsa OHL
Investment Research
13 November 2015
Reduce
Recommendation unchanged
6.44
8.80
OHL.MC/OHL SM
3,536,026
22,739.86
14.81
6.44
-21.4%
-23.3%
-53.4%
1,925
299
37%
12/14
3,731
1,079
28.9%
614
16.5%
150
3.5%
5,625
1.6
5.2
2.2
2.5
8.6
8.6
15.0
22.1
1.6
-23.8%
5.5%
0.50
7.10
0.35
12/15e
4,095
1,142
27.9%
954
23.3%
174
6.7%
5,572
1.2
4.9
2.4
1.9
7.0
7.0
8.4
11.0
0.6
-24.6%
2.3%
0.58
10.82
0.15
12/16e
4,267
1,219
28.6%
1,023
24.0%
216
7.4%
6,295
1.2
5.2
2.4
2.1
7.3
7.3
8.7
8.9
0.6
-14.3%
2.8%
0.72
11.40
0.18
Los hechos: OHL ha publicado un beneficio neto que cede un 19% (EUR 70,1m),
afectado por un descenso del 7,5% en el EBITDA, que proviene de un menor
resultado por rentabilidad garantizada y de la dbil evolucin de industrial (EUR -27m
EBITDA).
Nuestro anlisis: Otros puntos a destacar: 1) Deuda. La deuda con recurso se eleva
a EUR1.534m (EUR 1.242m en 1S15, EUR 827m 2014) por peor circulante (EUR 164m), EUR 91m se han puesto de colateral del prstamo de Abertis y EUR 110m se
han destinado a reducir la deuda afecta a OHLM; 2) Variacin Circulante. EUR 164m vs EUR -89,3m en 1S15. Esperamos para final de ao EUR -194m; 3)
Reclamaciones. Sin novedad; 4) Venta de activos. De los EUR 250m anunciados
ya se ha completado el 75%, aunque an no se ha contabilizado. La prdida de
EBITDA es mnima; 5) Construccin. De los grandes contratos del pasado
nicamente queda por ejecutar EUR 300m en Turqua; 6) Resultados. El EBITDA
cede un 7,5% con un dbil comportamiento de Construccin e Ingeniera (-1%% en
EBITDA) por industrial (EUR -27m EBITDA). En concesiones el EBITDA de caja
aumenta un 20% por mejor trfico (Conmex +13,5%, Viaducto +8,5%) y tarifas. El
EBITDA por rentabilidad garantizada cede un 20% por el menor IPC considerado
(0,65% vs 2,19%) y la mejor evolucin del EBITDA de caja.
9M14
9M15
2,137.0 2,645.1
343.5
395.4
67.4
91.7
2,547.9 3,132.2
9M14
9M15
141.9
140.5
626.8
570.1
8.4
8.2
777.1
718.8
87.5
70.1
Construction
Toll roads
Other
SALES
Construction
Toll roads
Other
EBITDA
Net Income
%
23.8%
15.1%
36.1%
22.9%
%
-1.0%
-9.0%
-2.4%
-7.5%
-19.9%
Source: OHL
vvdsvdvsdy
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
Analyst(s):
Rafael Fernndez de
Heredia
+34 91 436 78 08
7
6
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Source: Factset
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
IBEX 35 (Rebased)
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report
Produced by:
Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
12/2012
4,030
-2,977
0.0
1,053
1,053
-393
660
660
0.0
660
660
-407
-27.1
7.5
46.8
281
-342
n.m.
1,162
-95.7
1,006
252
12/2013
3,684
-2,469
0.0
1,215
1,215
-184
1,031
1,031
0.0
1,031
1,031
-406
-35.8
120
-82.6
628
-223
35.5%
0.0
-135
270
353
12/2014
3,731
-2,652
0.0
1,079
1,079
-464
614
614
0.0
614
614
-484
-7.6
98.1
189
409
-224
54.7%
0.0
-162
23.2
150
12/2015e
4,095
-2,952
0.0
1,142
1,142
-188
954
954
0.0
954
954
-466
0.0
124
0.0
611
-245
40.0%
0.0
-192
174
174
12/2016e
4,267
-3,048
0.0
1,219
1,219
-196
1,023
1,023
0.0
1,023
1,023
-514
0.0
132
0.0
641
-224
35.0%
0.0
-201
216
216
12/2017e
4,411
-3,121
0.0
1,290
1,290
-202
1,088
1,088
0.0
1,088
1,088
-568
0.0
139
0.0
660
-231
35.0%
0.0
-207
221
221
12/2012
738
-562
177
-171
-492
-486
-55.8
1,453
911
-144
12/2013
-47.3
-273
-320
-184
-1,154
-1,658
-64.5
379
-1,344
665
12/2014
-53.4
-550
-603
-183
461
-326
-67.4
309
-83.6
278
12/2015e
-89.6
-195
-284
-188
-412
-884
-35.0
973
53.0
572
12/2016e
-69.8
-9.1
-79.0
-196
-404
-679
-43.6
0.0
-723
665
12/2017e
-73.1
3.6
-69.5
-202
-248
-519
-53.9
0.0
-573
707
12/2012
632
6,088
1,902
8,622
144
2,263
52.9
-1,125
3,585
12,207
2,135
586
2,721
4,262
217
1,432
5,911
1,061
1,832
682
3,574
12,207
8,568
-54.2
12/2013
619
6,663
2,822
10,104
173
2,232
87.2
-1,084
3,576
13,680
2,258
1,024
3,282
5,565
211
1,384
7,160
1,061
1,555
622
3,238
13,680
10,418
315
12/2014
653
6,874
2,983
10,510
233
2,339
59.2
-1,089
3,721
14,230
2,121
1,371
3,492
5,653
183
1,609
7,446
1,061
1,742
489
3,292
14,230
10,910
401
12/2015e
1,244
6,695
2,981
10,921
256
2,782
65.0
-1,089
4,192
15,113
3,233
1,564
4,797
5,600
156
992
6,748
1,061
1,958
550
3,569
15,113
11,517
595
12/2016e
1,828
6,517
2,980
11,325
267
2,806
67.7
-1,089
4,229
15,555
3,405
1,764
5,169
6,323
128
337
6,788
1,061
1,980
556
3,597
15,555
11,930
605
12/2017e
2,256
6,339
2,978
11,573
276
2,780
70.0
-1,089
4,214
15,787
3,573
1,972
5,544
6,896
101
-339
6,658
1,061
1,971
553
3,585
15,787
12,174
601
12/2012
-17.3%
-13.6%
-31.7%
-32.1%
12/2013
-8.6%
15.4%
56.2%
56.2%
12/2014
1.3%
-11.2%
-40.5%
-40.5%
12/2015e
9.8%
5.9%
55.4%
55.4%
12/2016e
4.2%
6.7%
7.2%
7.2%
12/2017e
3.4%
5.8%
6.4%
6.4%
Page 2
12/2012
17.1%
17.1%
16.5%
26.1%
16.4%
16.4%
12/2013
40.3%
40.3%
4.0%
33.0%
28.0%
28.0%
12/2014
-57.6%
-57.6%
-48.2%
28.9%
16.5%
16.5%
12/2015e
16.4%
16.4%
-58.5%
27.9%
23.3%
23.3%
12/2016e
23.8%
23.8%
23.8%
28.6%
24.0%
24.0%
12/2017e
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
29.3%
24.7%
24.7%
RATIOS
Net Debt/Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)
Capex/D&A
Capex/Sales
NWC/Sales
ROE (average)
ROCE (adj.)
WACC
ROCE (adj.)/WACC
12/2012
1.5
4.0
2.6
43.4%
4.2%
-1.3%
15.0%
-2.2%
6.9%
-0.3
12/2013
1.7
4.6
3.0
100.0%
5.0%
8.5%
16.1%
8.8%
6.9%
1.3
12/2014
1.6
5.2
2.2
39.4%
4.9%
10.7%
6.8%
3.5%
6.9%
0.5
12/2015e
1.2
4.9
2.4
100.0%
4.6%
14.5%
6.5%
6.7%
6.9%
1.0
12/2016e
1.2
5.2
2.4
100.0%
4.6%
14.2%
6.5%
7.4%
6.9%
1.1
12/2017e
1.2
5.3
2.3
100.0%
4.6%
13.6%
6.3%
7.7%
6.9%
1.1
12/2012
298.8
3.37
0.84
7.15
0.65
12/2013
298.8
0.91
1.18
7.56
0.68
12/2014
298.8
0.08
0.50
7.10
0.35
12/2015e
298.8
0.58
0.58
10.82
0.15
12/2016e
298.8
0.72
0.72
11.40
0.18
12/2017e
298.8
0.74
0.74
11.96
0.19
VALUATION
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)*
EV/EBITA
EV/EBITA (adj.)*
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT (adj.)*
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
Total Yield Ratio
EV/CE
OpFCF yield
OpFCF/EV
Payout ratio
Dividend yield (gross)
12/2012
1.9
7.3
7.3
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
15.6
1.8
1.6%
1.1
0.2%
0.1%
19.4%
5.0%
12/2013
2.9
8.9
8.9
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
14.9
2.3
1.3%
1.4
-9.6%
-4.6%
74.9%
3.9%
12/2014
2.5
8.6
8.6
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
22.1
1.6
1.8%
1.2
-23.8%
-8.5%
n.m.
5.5%
12/2015e
1.9
7.0
7.0
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
11.0
0.6
2.3%
0.9
-24.6%
-5.9%
25.0%
2.3%
12/2016e
2.1
7.3
7.3
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.9
0.6
2.8%
1.0
-14.3%
-3.1%
25.0%
2.8%
12/2017e
2.2
7.5
7.5
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.7
0.5
2.9%
1.1
-14.1%
-2.8%
25.0%
2.9%
12/2012
13.11
298.8
3,916
4,198
-1,125
5323
-473
7,641
12/2013
17.58
298.8
5,253
5,542
-1084
6,626
60
10,855
12/2014
11.08
298.8
3,309
5,625
-1089
6,714
289
9,224
12/2015e
6.44
298.8
1,925
5,572
-1089
6,661
481
7,979
12/2016e
6.44
298.8
1,925
6,295
-1089
7,384
682
8,902
12/2017e
6.44
298.8
1,925
6,868
-1089
7,957
889
9,683
Notes
* Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj)= EBITDA (or EBITA) -/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income and where EBIT (adj)= EBIT-/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income - PPA amortisation
**Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years
Sector: Materials, Construction & Infrastructure/Construction
Company Description: OHL is a diversified group mainly exposed to infrastructure transport concessions in Latam and to construction at
worldwide level.
Page 3
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy (B),
Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the
stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital
operation (take-over bid, SPO, ) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of
the issuer is or could be involved
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of
ESN) or a related party of the issuer
Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of
volatility on the markets
BEKA Finance Ratings Breakdown
Sell
Reduce
0%
4%
Buy
37%
Neutral
28%
Accumulate
31%
REDUCE
-10%
HOLD
0%
10%
ACCUMULATE
20%
BUY
Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System
(before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.
SELL
HOLD
REDUCE
-15%
0%
5%
ACCUMULATE
15%
BUY
Page 4
Recommendation
Reduce
Reduce
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Target price
8.80
9.79
9.79
14.69
19.29
20.78
20.78
18.99
17.97
17.97
Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits.
This chart shows BEKA Finance continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst:
Rafael Fernndez de Heredia (since 26/10/2006)
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Accumulat
Jul
15
Reduce
Sell
Not rated
Information regarding Market Abuse and Conflicts of Interests and recommendation history available in our web
page: www.bekafinance.com and our offices
The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., from
sources believed to be reliable. This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell
relevant securities. BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., will not take any responsibility whatsoever for losses which may
derive from use of the present document or its contents, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., can occasionally have
positions in some of the securities mentioned in this report, through its trading portfolio or negotiation.
Additionally, there can exist a commercial relation between BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., and the mentioned
companies.
As of the date of this report, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A.,
acts as agent or liquidity provider for the following companies: AB Biotics; Bioorganic Research
Services SA; Carbures Europa SA; Euroepes S.A., Facephi Biometra SA., Lleidanetworks Serveis
Telematics SA., Lumar Natural Seafood; NBI Bearings Europe S.A. Trajano Iberia Socimi, SA:;
has in the last 12 months, participated as lead or co-lead manager in corporate operations with the
following companies: Aena; Audax Energa; Dogi International Fabrics SA; Endesa; Lleidanetworks
Serveis Telematics SA.NBI Bearings Europe S.A.
has, during the last year, performed a significant amount of business with: AB Biotics; Bankia; Carbures
Europa SA; Ferrovial.
has a contractual relationship to provide financial services, through which BEKA Finance S.V.,S.A.,
executes orders on the treasury stocks of the following companies: CaixaBank S.A., Grupo Ezentis S.A.
has a liquidity contract as outlined by the CNMV's Circular 3/2007 with: FCC; Hispania Activos
Inmobiliarios, S.A., Indra Sistemas; Sacyr.
Page 5
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