Obrascon Huarte Lain

Post results note

Spain/ Materials, Construction & Infrastructure

Investment Research

13 November 2015

Reduce

La deuda con recurso continua incrementndose

Recommendation unchanged

6.44

Share price: EUR

closing price as of 12/11/2015

Target price: EUR

8.80

Target Price unchanged

Reuters/Bloomberg

OHL.MC/OHL SM

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)
Price high 12 mth (EUR)
Price low 12 mth (EUR)
Abs. perf. 1 mth
Abs. perf. 3 mth
Abs. perf. 12 mth

3,536,026
22,739.86
14.81
6.44
-21.4%
-23.3%
-53.4%

Market capitalisation (EURm)

Current N of shares (m)
Free float

1,925
299
37%

Key financials (EUR)

Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT margin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
ROCE
Net debt/(cash) (m)
Net Debt Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS

12/14
3,731
1,079
28.9%
614
16.5%
150
3.5%
5,625
1.6
5.2
2.2
2.5
8.6
8.6
15.0
22.1
1.6
-23.8%
5.5%
0.50
7.10
0.35

12/15e
4,095
1,142
27.9%
954
23.3%
174
6.7%
5,572
1.2
4.9
2.4
1.9
7.0
7.0
8.4
11.0
0.6
-24.6%
2.3%
0.58
10.82
0.15

12/16e
4,267
1,219
28.6%
1,023
24.0%
216
7.4%
6,295
1.2
5.2
2.4
2.1
7.3
7.3
8.7
8.9
0.6
-14.3%
2.8%
0.72
11.40
0.18

Los hechos: OHL ha publicado un beneficio neto que cede un 19% (EUR 70,1m),
afectado por un descenso del 7,5% en el EBITDA, que proviene de un menor
resultado por rentabilidad garantizada y de la dbil evolucin de industrial (EUR -27m
EBITDA).
Nuestro anlisis: Otros puntos a destacar: 1) Deuda. La deuda con recurso se eleva
a EUR1.534m (EUR 1.242m en 1S15, EUR 827m 2014) por peor circulante (EUR 164m), EUR 91m se han puesto de colateral del prstamo de Abertis y EUR 110m se
han destinado a reducir la deuda afecta a OHLM; 2) Variacin Circulante. EUR 164m vs EUR -89,3m en 1S15. Esperamos para final de ao EUR -194m; 3)
Reclamaciones. Sin novedad; 4) Venta de activos. De los EUR 250m anunciados
ya se ha completado el 75%, aunque an no se ha contabilizado. La prdida de
EBITDA es mnima; 5) Construccin. De los grandes contratos del pasado
nicamente queda por ejecutar EUR 300m en Turqua; 6) Resultados. El EBITDA
cede un 7,5% con un dbil comportamiento de Construccin e Ingeniera (-1%% en
EBITDA) por industrial (EUR -27m EBITDA). En concesiones el EBITDA de caja
aumenta un 20% por mejor trfico (Conmex +13,5%, Viaducto +8,5%) y tarifas. El
EBITDA por rentabilidad garantizada cede un 20% por el menor IPC considerado
(0,65% vs 2,19%) y la mejor evolucin del EBITDA de caja.
9M14
9M15
2,137.0 2,645.1
343.5
395.4
67.4
91.7
2,547.9 3,132.2
9M14
9M15
141.9
140.5
626.8
570.1
8.4
8.2
777.1
718.8
87.5
70.1

Construction
Toll roads
Other
SALES
Construction
Toll roads
Other
EBITDA
Net Income

%
23.8%
15.1%
36.1%
22.9%
%
-1.0%
-9.0%
-2.4%
-7.5%
-19.9%

Source: OHL

Conclusin: Resultados que an no recogen el impacto positivo de la ampliacin de

capital, pero en donde de nuevo vemos un incremento adicional de la deuda con
recurso. Mantenemos nuestra recomendacin de Reducir a pesar del potencial
existente, a la espera de conocer las posibles sanciones en Mjico y el resultado de
las auditoras oficiales en Mjico.

vvdsvdvsdy

15
14
13
12
11
10
9

Analyst(s):

Rafael Fernndez de
Heredia

+34 91 436 78 08

[email protected]

7
6
Oct 14

Nov 14

Dec 14

Source: Factset

Jan 15

Feb 15

Mar 15

Apr 15

May 15

OBRASCON HUARTE LAIN

Jun 15

Jul 15

Aug 15

Sep 15

Oct 15

Nov 15

IBEX 35 (Rebased)

Shareholders: Inmobiliaria Espacio 59%; Invesco 4%;

For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report

For company description please see summary table footnote

Produced by:
Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)

All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (ESNR),

Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet

Obrascon Huarte Lain

Obrascon Huarte Lain: Summary tables

PROFIT & LOSS (EURm)
Sales
Cost of Sales & Operating Costs
Non Recurrent Expenses/Income
EBITDA
EBITDA (adj.)*
Depreciation
EBITA
EBITA (adj)*
Amortisations and Write Downs
EBIT
EBIT (adj.)*
Net Financial Interest
Other Financials
Associates
Other Non Recurrent Items
Earnings Before Tax (EBT)
Tax
Tax rate
Discontinued Operations
Minorities
Net Profit (reported)
Net Profit (adj.)

12/2012
4,030
-2,977
0.0
1,053
1,053
-393
660
660
0.0
660
660
-407
-27.1
7.5
46.8
281
-342
n.m.
1,162
-95.7
1,006
252

12/2013
3,684
-2,469
0.0
1,215
1,215
-184
1,031
1,031
0.0
1,031
1,031
-406
-35.8
120
-82.6
628
-223
35.5%
0.0
-135
270
353

12/2014
3,731
-2,652
0.0
1,079
1,079
-464
614
614
0.0
614
614
-484
-7.6
98.1
189
409
-224
54.7%
0.0
-162
23.2
150

12/2015e
4,095
-2,952
0.0
1,142
1,142
-188
954
954
0.0
954
954
-466
0.0
124
0.0
611
-245
40.0%
0.0
-192
174
174

12/2016e
4,267
-3,048
0.0
1,219
1,219
-196
1,023
1,023
0.0
1,023
1,023
-514
0.0
132
0.0
641
-224
35.0%
0.0
-201
216
216

12/2017e
4,411
-3,121
0.0
1,290
1,290
-202
1,088
1,088
0.0
1,088
1,088
-568
0.0
139
0.0
660
-231
35.0%
0.0
-207
221
221

CASH FLOW (EURm)

Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC
Change in Net Working Capital
Cash Flow from Operations
Capex
Net Financial Investments
Free Cash Flow
Dividends
Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs)
Change in Net Debt
NOPLAT

12/2012
738
-562
177
-171
-492
-486
-55.8
1,453
911
-144

12/2013
-47.3
-273
-320
-184
-1,154
-1,658
-64.5
379
-1,344
665

12/2014
-53.4
-550
-603
-183
461
-326
-67.4
309
-83.6
278

12/2015e
-89.6
-195
-284
-188
-412
-884
-35.0
973
53.0
572

12/2016e
-69.8
-9.1
-79.0
-196
-404
-679
-43.6
0.0
-723
665

12/2017e
-73.1
3.6
-69.5
-202
-248
-519
-53.9
0.0
-573
707

BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm)

Net Tangible Assets
Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill)
Net Financial Assets & Other
Total Fixed Assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Other current assets
Cash (-)
Total Current Assets
Total Assets
Shareholders Equity
Minority
Total Equity
Long term interest bearing debt
Provisions
Other long term liabilities
Total Long Term Liabilities
Short term interest bearing debt
Trade payables
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Net Capital Employed
Net Working Capital

12/2012
632
6,088
1,902
8,622
144
2,263
52.9
-1,125
3,585
12,207
2,135
586
2,721
4,262
217
1,432
5,911
1,061
1,832
682
3,574
12,207
8,568
-54.2

12/2013
619
6,663
2,822
10,104
173
2,232
87.2
-1,084
3,576
13,680
2,258
1,024
3,282
5,565
211
1,384
7,160
1,061
1,555
622
3,238
13,680
10,418
315

12/2014
653
6,874
2,983
10,510
233
2,339
59.2
-1,089
3,721
14,230
2,121
1,371
3,492
5,653
183
1,609
7,446
1,061
1,742
489
3,292
14,230
10,910
401

12/2015e
1,244
6,695
2,981
10,921
256
2,782
65.0
-1,089
4,192
15,113
3,233
1,564
4,797
5,600
156
992
6,748
1,061
1,958
550
3,569
15,113
11,517
595

12/2016e
1,828
6,517
2,980
11,325
267
2,806
67.7
-1,089
4,229
15,555
3,405
1,764
5,169
6,323
128
337
6,788
1,061
1,980
556
3,597
15,555
11,930
605

12/2017e
2,256
6,339
2,978
11,573
276
2,780
70.0
-1,089
4,214
15,787
3,573
1,972
5,544
6,896
101
-339
6,658
1,061
1,971
553
3,585
15,787
12,174
601

GROWTH & MARGINS

Sales growth
EBITDA (adj.)* growth
EBITA (adj.)* growth
EBIT (adj)*growth

12/2012
-17.3%
-13.6%
-31.7%
-32.1%

12/2013
-8.6%
15.4%
56.2%
56.2%

12/2014
1.3%
-11.2%
-40.5%
-40.5%

12/2015e
9.8%
5.9%
55.4%
55.4%

12/2016e
4.2%
6.7%
7.2%
7.2%

12/2017e
3.4%
5.8%
6.4%
6.4%

Page 2

Obrascon Huarte Lain

Obrascon Huarte Lain: Summary tables

GROWTH & MARGINS
Net Profit growth
EPS adj. growth
DPS adj. growth
EBITDA (adj)* margin
EBITA (adj)* margin
EBIT (adj)* margin

12/2012
17.1%
17.1%
16.5%
26.1%
16.4%
16.4%

12/2013
40.3%
40.3%
4.0%
33.0%
28.0%
28.0%

12/2014
-57.6%
-57.6%
-48.2%
28.9%
16.5%
16.5%

12/2015e
16.4%
16.4%
-58.5%
27.9%
23.3%
23.3%

12/2016e
23.8%
23.8%
23.8%
28.6%
24.0%
24.0%

12/2017e
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
29.3%
24.7%
24.7%

RATIOS
Net Debt/Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)
Capex/D&A
Capex/Sales
NWC/Sales
ROE (average)
ROCE (adj.)
WACC
ROCE (adj.)/WACC

12/2012
1.5
4.0
2.6
43.4%
4.2%
-1.3%
15.0%
-2.2%
6.9%
-0.3

12/2013
1.7
4.6
3.0
100.0%
5.0%
8.5%
16.1%
8.8%
6.9%
1.3

12/2014
1.6
5.2
2.2
39.4%
4.9%
10.7%
6.8%
3.5%
6.9%
0.5

12/2015e
1.2
4.9
2.4
100.0%
4.6%
14.5%
6.5%
6.7%
6.9%
1.0

12/2016e
1.2
5.2
2.4
100.0%
4.6%
14.2%
6.5%
7.4%
6.9%
1.1

12/2017e
1.2
5.3
2.3
100.0%
4.6%
13.6%
6.3%
7.7%
6.9%
1.1

PER SHARE DATA (EUR)***

Average diluted number of shares
EPS (reported)
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS

12/2012
298.8
3.37
0.84
7.15
0.65

12/2013
298.8
0.91
1.18
7.56
0.68

12/2014
298.8
0.08
0.50
7.10
0.35

12/2015e
298.8
0.58
0.58
10.82
0.15

12/2016e
298.8
0.72
0.72
11.40
0.18

12/2017e
298.8
0.74
0.74
11.96
0.19

VALUATION
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)*
EV/EBITA
EV/EBITA (adj.)*
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT (adj.)*
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
Total Yield Ratio
EV/CE
OpFCF yield
OpFCF/EV
Payout ratio
Dividend yield (gross)

12/2012
1.9
7.3
7.3
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
15.6
1.8
1.6%
1.1
0.2%
0.1%
19.4%
5.0%

12/2013
2.9
8.9
8.9
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
14.9
2.3
1.3%
1.4
-9.6%
-4.6%
74.9%
3.9%

12/2014
2.5
8.6
8.6
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
22.1
1.6
1.8%
1.2
-23.8%
-8.5%
n.m.
5.5%

12/2015e
1.9
7.0
7.0
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
11.0
0.6
2.3%
0.9
-24.6%
-5.9%
25.0%
2.3%

12/2016e
2.1
7.3
7.3
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.9
0.6
2.8%
1.0
-14.3%
-3.1%
25.0%
2.8%

12/2017e
2.2
7.5
7.5
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.7
0.5
2.9%
1.1
-14.1%
-2.8%
25.0%
2.9%

EV AND MKT CAP (EURm)

Price** (EUR)
Outstanding number of shares for main stock
Total Market Cap
Net Debt
o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-)
o/w Gross Debt (+)
Other EV components
Enterprise Value (EV adj.)
Source: Company, BEKA Finance estimates.

12/2012
13.11
298.8
3,916
4,198
-1,125
5323
-473
7,641

12/2013
17.58
298.8
5,253
5,542
-1084
6,626
60
10,855

12/2014
11.08
298.8
3,309
5,625
-1089
6,714
289
9,224

12/2015e
6.44
298.8
1,925
5,572
-1089
6,661
481
7,979

12/2016e
6.44
298.8
1,925
6,295
-1089
7,384
682
8,902

12/2017e
6.44
298.8
1,925
6,868
-1089
7,957
889
9,683

Notes

* Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj)= EBITDA (or EBITA) -/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income and where EBIT (adj)= EBIT-/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income - PPA amortisation

**Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years
Sector: Materials, Construction & Infrastructure/Construction

Company Description: OHL is a diversified group mainly exposed to infrastructure transport concessions in Latam and to construction at
worldwide level.

Page 3

Obrascon Huarte Lain

ESN Recommendation System

The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a
total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a
12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy (B),
Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the
stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital
operation (take-over bid, SPO, ) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of
the issuer is or could be involved
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of
ESN) or a related party of the issuer

Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of
volatility on the markets
BEKA Finance Ratings Breakdown

Sell
Reduce
0%
4%

Buy
37%

Neutral
28%

Accumulate
31%

History of ESN Recommendation System

Since 1 April 2015, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follows:
The term Hold has been replaced by the term Neutral
Recommendations Total Return Range changed as showed in the picture at the start of the
page
Since 4 August 2008 until 30 March 2015, the previous ESN Rec. System was amended as
follow.

Time horizon changed to 12 months (previously it was 6 months)

Recommendations Total Return Range changed (see below):

SELL

REDUCE
-10%

HOLD
0%

10%

ACCUMULATE
20%

BUY

Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System
(before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.
SELL

HOLD

REDUCE
-15%

0%

5%

ACCUMULATE
15%

BUY

Page 4

Obrascon Huarte Lain

Recommendation history for OBRASCON HUARTE LAIN

Date
16-Oct-15
31-Jul-15
16-Jun-15
06-Mar-15
14-Nov-14
14-Aug-14
04-Jun-14
11-Dec-13
29-May-13
18-Feb-13

Recommendation
Reduce
Reduce
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy

Target price
8.80
9.79
9.79
14.69
19.29
20.78
20.78
18.99
17.97
17.97

Price at change date

8.49
9.04
8.57
12.43
13.01
15.56
18.25
16.71
17.19
14.41

Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits.
This chart shows BEKA Finance continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst:
Rafael Fernndez de Heredia (since 26/10/2006)

22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

14
14
14
15
15 15
15
15
15
Price history
Buy

Accumulat

Jul
15

Aug Sep Oct Nov

15
15
15
15

Target price history

Neut

Reduce

Sell

Not rated

Information regarding Market Abuse and Conflicts of Interests and recommendation history available in our web
page: www.bekafinance.com and our offices
The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., from
sources believed to be reliable. This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell
relevant securities. BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., will not take any responsibility whatsoever for losses which may
derive from use of the present document or its contents, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., can occasionally have
positions in some of the securities mentioned in this report, through its trading portfolio or negotiation.
Additionally, there can exist a commercial relation between BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., and the mentioned
companies.
As of the date of this report, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A.,
acts as agent or liquidity provider for the following companies: AB Biotics; Bioorganic Research
Services SA; Carbures Europa SA; Euroepes S.A., Facephi Biometra SA., Lleidanetworks Serveis
Telematics SA., Lumar Natural Seafood; NBI Bearings Europe S.A. Trajano Iberia Socimi, SA:;
has in the last 12 months, participated as lead or co-lead manager in corporate operations with the
following companies: Aena; Audax Energa; Dogi International Fabrics SA; Endesa; Lleidanetworks
Serveis Telematics SA.NBI Bearings Europe S.A.
has, during the last year, performed a significant amount of business with: AB Biotics; Bankia; Carbures
Europa SA; Ferrovial.
has a contractual relationship to provide financial services, through which BEKA Finance S.V.,S.A.,
executes orders on the treasury stocks of the following companies: CaixaBank S.A., Grupo Ezentis S.A.
has a liquidity contract as outlined by the CNMV's Circular 3/2007 with: FCC; Hispania Activos
Inmobiliarios, S.A., Indra Sistemas; Sacyr.

Page 5

Disclaimer:
These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European
Securities Network LLP (ESN). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any
director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and
complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any
unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in
reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the
reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to
change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part
or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was
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ESN Member websites:
www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Societ e la Borsa
www.bekafinance.com regulated by CNMV - Comisin Nacional del Mercado de Valores
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comisso do Mercado de Valores Mobilirios
www.cmcics.com regulated by the AMF - Autorit des marchs financiers
www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission
www.pohjola.com regulated by the Financial Supervision Authority
www.snssecurities.nl regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financile Markten

Obrascon Huarte Lain

Spain
Materials, Construction & Infrastructure

Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)

Banca Akros S.p.A.

Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 MILANO
Italy
Phone: +39 02 43 444 389
Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

Equinet Bank AG
Grfstrae 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Phone:+49 69 58997 212
Fax:+49 69 58997 299

BEKA Finance
C/ Marques de Villamagna 3
28001 Madrid
Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813

Investment Bank of Greece

32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,
151 25 Maroussi,
Greece
Tel: +30 210 81 73 383

Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, n 33
1269-057 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 21 313 73 00
Fax: +351 21 389 68 98

Pohjola Bank plc

P.O.Box 308
FI- 00013 Pohjola
Finland
Phone: +358 10 252 011
Fax: +358 10 252 2703

CM - CIC Securities
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
Phone: +33 1 53 48 80 78
Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25

SNS Securities N.V.

Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064