PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)

AÑO ESTACION DOS DE MAYO - PACHAS ES

2003 170.7
2004 122.6
250
2005 145.6
2006 138.9
2007 183.4
2008 122.9 200
2009 167.6
2010 151.9
2011 159.3 150
2012 232.0

100

50

0
0 3 0 6 09 12
2 0 20 2 0 20
 ESTACION DOS DE MAYO - PACHAS

9 2
0 0 20 1

Herramientas / Análisis de Datos / Estadística Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 666.2
Mediana 364.5
Moda 390
Desviación estándar 883.4
Varianza 780454
Curtosis 4.60
Coeficiente de asimetría 2.06
Rango 4424
Mínimo 0
Máximo 4424
Suma 49299.5
Cuenta 74
CUADRO N° 01.- DISTRIBUCION NORMAL - PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
AÑO ESTACION DOS DE MAYO - PACHAS DATOS ORDENADOS F(x) f(x)
2003 170.7 232.0 0.9875915740516 0.0009951612
2004 122.6 183.4 0.7703601280807 0.0093899059
2005 145.6 170.7 0.6356886950174 0.0116263017
2006 138.9 167.6 0.599097159765 0.0119646532 F(x)
2007 183.4 159.3 0.4976539736072 0.012347365
2008 122.9 151.9 0.4071367746992 0.0120115308 1
2009 167.6 145.6 0.3336318413939 0.0112576758 0.9
2010 151.9 138.9 0.2619722951607 0.0100784466
0.8
2011 159.3 122.9 0.1287143726136 0.0065025465
2012 232.0 122.6 0.1267738571818 0.0064342503 0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
100 120 140 160 18

f(x)

0.014

0.012

0.01

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0
100 120 140 160 1
 0.01

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0
100 120 140 160 1
 MEDIA 159.49
DESV.EST. 32.31

F(x)

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

f(x)

0.014

0.012

0.01

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
 0.01

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
CUADRO N° 2.0.- ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑOESTACION DOS DE MAYO - PACHAS
DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x) F(x) f(x) MEDIA 159.49
2003 170.7 232.0 5.446737371666 0.9794874937258 0.2579443613 DESV.EST. 32.31
2004 122.6 183.4 5.211669559822 0.7931920714032 1.4892724695
2005 145.6 170.7 5.1399076298 0.6712451393377 1.8855092885
2006 138.9 167.6 5.121580188048 0.6360002802203 1.9581518759
2007 183.4 159.3 5.070789216916 0.5330524201023 2.0730882194
2008 122.9 151.9 5.023222409602 0.4344382677813 2.0520774998 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr =
2009 167.6 145.6 4.980863135763 0.3497622104606 1.9309185082
2010 151.9 138.9 4.93375424976 0.2638223163591 1.7040649201 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
2011 159.3 122.9 4.811371016572 0.1020856381763 0.9289858077
2012 232.0 122.6 4.808927023502 0.0998335349942 0.914000055 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc =

z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAN

z = 2.32634787

y=m+z S

y = 5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805

y= 5.5010

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x = 244.942639
 MEDIA 5.0549
DESV.EST. 0.1918

F(x)
C.ASIMETRIA 0.6578099

1.2
onocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

1
ue Tr = 1 / Pno exc

0.01 0.8
0.99
0.6
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.4

0.2

0
5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

f(x)

2.5

1.5

1
2.5

1.5

0.5

0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

f(x)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
5 5 6
 F(x)

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

f(x)

2.5

1.5

1
2.5

1.5

0.5

0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

f(x)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
5 5 6
CUADRO N° 3.0.- ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION DOS DE MAYO - PACHAS
DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x) f(x) MEDIA 159.49
2003 170.7 232.0 4.901505951239 0.9563002297427 0.1769088843 DESV.EST. 32.31
2004 122.6 183.4 4.453092624582 0.8029912549491 0.5301690266
2005 145.6 170.7 4.293088391997 0.7076678005482 0.6565984298
2006 138.9 167.6 4.249811031713 0.6786333814876 0.6846153432
2007 183.4 159.3 4.123776591034 0.588242881207 0.743656463
2008 122.9 151.9 3.996220134275 0.4917286787282 0.762219687
2009 167.6 145.6 3.873119292716 0.398982437737 0.7378100697 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr =
2010 151.9 138.9 3.723091633423 0.2936728345243 0.6579937675
2011 159.3 122.9 3.234440697262 0.0699042690269 0.2563175678 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
2012 232.0 122.6 3.222555681827 0.0669086993743 0.2478005717
--> Pno exc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc =

z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAN

z = 2.32634787

y=m+z S

y = 5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367

y= 5.2244

a 97.5078 y= ln (x - a)

Mediana 155.6 x-a= e (y)

x - a = 185.751225
x = 7413,477 - 25,068

x = 283.259059
 MEDIA 4.0071
DESV.EST. 0.5233
a 97.5078

C.ASIMETRIA -0.1219268686

LN3; C.A.=0
nocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.9
e Tr = 1 / Pno exc 0.8
0.7
0.01 0.6
0.99
0.5
0.4
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
3 4 5

5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367

LN2; C.A.=-0,8
2.5

1.5

0.5

0
5 5 6
 2

1.5

7413,477 - 25,068 0.5

0
5 5 6
CUADRO N° 4.0.- ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO ESTACION DOS DE MAYO DATOS ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a
2003 170.7 232.0 2.63
2004 122.6 183.4 1.20
2005 145.6 170.7 0.82
2006 138.9 167.6 0.73
2007 183.4 159.3 0.49
2008 122.9 151.9 0.27
2009 167.6 145.6 0.09
2010 151.9 138.9 (0.11)
2011 159.3 122.9 (0.58)
2012 232.0 122.6 (0.59)

x medio 159.49 0.4952

desv. Est x (Sx) 32.31 0.9496

n = número de datos 10
yn medio = 0.4952
Sn = 0.9496
parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 34.02
u = x-yn*a= 142.64

e  y
F (x  X )  1 e 
 e  y
F (x  X )  1 e 
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99

-e(-y)= -0.0100503

e(-y)= 0.0100503

-y = -4.6001492

159.49 0.4952 y = 4.6001492

32.31 0.9496
y= x-u
10 a
0.4952
0.9496 x= u + a.y

x= 299.16
34.02
142.64
 e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
 e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600

Desviación tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
CUADRO N° 5.0.- ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑOESTACION DOS DE MAYO - PACHAS
DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x) x (media) 159.5
2003 170.7 232.0 1.208E-03 9.792E-01 s2 (varianza) 1043.9
2004 122.6 183.4 8.341E-03 7.802E-01 a 24.367
2005 145.6 170.7 1.085E-02 6.578E-01 b 6.55
2006 138.9 167.6 1.136E-02 6.233E-01
2007 183.4 159.3 1.232E-02 5.246E-01
2008 122.9 151.9 1.256E-02 4.322E-01 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
2009 167.6 145.6 1.222E-02 3.538E-01
2010 151.9 138.9 1.131E-02 2.747E-01 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
2011 159.3 122.9 7.468E-03 1.222E-01
2012 232.0 122.6 7.384E-03 1.200E-01 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99

x = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b

x = 244.109439
 f(x)
dal para Tr = 100 años,
1.4E-02

1.2E-02

1.0E-02

8.0E-03

6.0E-03
GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)
4.0E-03

2.0E-03

0.0E+00
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

F(x)

1.2E+00

1.0E+00

8.0E-01

6.0E-01

4.0E-01

2.0E-01

0.0E+00
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
8.0E-01

6.0E-01

4.0E-01

2.0E-01

0.0E+00
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
 Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

99 80 50 20 10 4 2 1
de asimetría Periodo de retorno en años -8 -6
g 1.0101 1.25 2 5 10 25 50 100
f(x) = − 0.01
3 -0.667 -0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051
R² = 0.9997
2.8 -0.714 -0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.769 -0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.832 -0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.8 f(x) = − 0.01
2.2 -0.905 -0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 R² = 0.9996
2 -0.99 -0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -1.087 -0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 f(x) = − 0.0089
1.6 -1.197 -0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 R² = 0.999397
1.4 -1.318 -0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -1.449 -0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 f(x) = − 0.0026
1 -1.558 -0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 R² = 0.998537
0.8 -1.733 -0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891 f(x) = 0.001376
0.6 -1.88 -0.857 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 R² = 0.9992547
0.4 -2.029 -0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 f(x) = 0.00407783
R² = 0.999982929
0.2 -2.178 -0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0 -2.326 -0.842 0 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.2 -2.472 -0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 f(x) = 0.001399
R²
f(x)= =0.9992713
− 0.0192
-0.4 -2.615 -0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606 1.834 2.029
R² = 0.999746
-0.6 -2.755 -0.8 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88
-0.8 -2.891 -0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733
-1 -3.022 -0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282 1.379 1.449
-1.4 -3.271 -0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318
-1.6 -3.388 -0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116 1.166 1.197
-1.8 -3.499 -0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087
-2 -3.605 -0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958 0.98 0.99
-2.2 -3.705 -0.574 0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905
-2.4 -3.8 -0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823 0.83 0.832
-2.6 -3.889 -0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764 0.768 0.769
-2.8 -3.973 -0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712 0.714 0.714 1.0101
2
-3 -4.051 -0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667
 K versus g para diferentes Tr
K(Tr) = f (g)

Coeficiente de asimetría, g

-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = − 0.0190533735741238 x³ + 0.0033863383557487 x² + 0.73159500479836 x + 2.30358307210031
R² = 0.999777398530349
Tr = 100

3
f(x) = − 0.0139955001744857 x³ − 0.0169498622206491 x² + 0.538798487971384 x + 2.0338847203964
R² = 0.99964710063594

f(x) = − 0.00895764059491728 x³ − 0.0322070292749519 x² + 0.349711848701964 x + 1.73532055819598

2
R² = 0.999397936569578

coeficiente K
f(x) = − 0.00260676908289863 x³ − 0.0412508532207504 x² + 0.111322764797091 x + 1.27384143998382
R² = 0.998537586979501 1
f(x) = 0.00137667818669587 x³ − 0.0354644364950955 x² − 0.0476827658331005 x + 0.839099100010113
R² = 0.999254748870467
f(x) = 0.00407783132972068 x³ − 8.6057325391559E-18 x² − 0.169169395485973 x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.999982929916464 0

f(x) = 0.00139929287393995 x³ + 0.0354719416776216 x² − 0.0478574019657413 x − 0.839213439174841

R²
f(x)= =0.999271357226285
− 0.0192834085803398 x³ − 0.00364704469612697 x² + 0.733220585508953 x − 2.30178106987562
R² = 0.999746677611077 -1

-2
Tr = 1.01

-3

-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25)
2 Polynomial (2) 5 Polynomial (5)
 CUADRO Nº 6.0: PRUEBA DE AJUSTE SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV, PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL; QUEBRADA TANTASH
Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D
DATOS Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
1 232.0 0.091 0.012 0.021 0.044 0.070 0.021 0.07850 0.07040 0.04721 0.02112 0.07015
2 183.4 0.182 0.230 0.207 0.197 0.261 0.220 0.04782 0.02499 0.01519 0.07871 0.03801
3 170.7 0.273 0.364 0.329 0.292 0.355 0.342 0.09158 0.05603 0.01960 0.08219 0.06951
4 167.6 0.364 0.401 0.364 0.321 0.381 0.377 0.03727 0.00036 0.04227 0.01770 0.01305
5 159.3 0.455 0.502 0.467 0.412 0.458 0.475 0.04780 0.01240 0.04279 0.00366 0.02085
6 151.9 0.545 0.593 0.566 0.508 0.533 0.568 0.04741 0.02011 0.03718 0.01230 0.02239
7 145.6 0.636 0.666 0.650 0.601 0.600 0.646 0.03000 0.01387 0.03535 0.03619 0.00979
8 138.9 0.727 0.738 0.736 0.706 0.672 0.725 0.01075 0.00890 0.02095 0.05478 0.00198
9 122.9 0.818 0.871 0.898 0.930 0.832 0.878 0.05310 0.07973 0.11191 0.01426 0.05960
10 122.6 0.909 0.873 0.900 0.933 0.835 0.880 0.03586 0.00892 0.02400 0.07402 0.02909
0.09158 0.07973 0.11191 0.08219 0.07015
Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
∆= 0.4093
Elaboración Propia
INTERPOLACION

DATOS:
20 0.294
23 X
25 0.27

X= 0.280 Valor Interpolado