Missed HIV medical visits predict poor clinical outcomes. We sought to identify patients at high risk of missing visits. We analyzed 2002-2014 data from six large US HIV clinics. At each visit, we predicted the likelihood of missing the next scheduled visit using demographic, clinical, and patient-reported psychosocial variables. Overall, 10,374 participants contributed 105,628 HIV visits. For 17% of visits, the next scheduled appointment was missed. The strongest predictor of a future missed visit was past-year missed visits. A model with only this predictor had area under the receiver operator curve = 0.65; defining "high risk" as those with any past-year missed visits had 73% sensitivity and 51% specificity in correctly identifying a future missed visit. Inclusion of other clinical and psychosocial predictors only slightly improved performance. Past visit attendance can identify those at increased risk for future missed visits, allowing for proactive allocation of resources to those at greatest risk.

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level.

Methods

We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified.

Results

Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700.

Conclusions

Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence.

To assess atrial fibrillation risk factors in people with HIV, we identified incident atrial fibrillation in a large clinical cohort of people receiving care. Compared with 970 controls without atrial fibrillation, the 97 with adjudicated incident atrial fibrillation were older, less likely Hispanic, and had more coronary disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In multivariable analysis, nonuse of antiretroviral therapy and prescription of antiretroviral regimens with multiple core agents were associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk.

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the normal delivery of HIV care, altered social support networks, and caused economic insecurity. People with HIV (PWH) are vulnerable to such disruptions, particularly if they have a history of substance use. We describe engagement in care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for PWH during the pandemic.

Methods

From May 2020 to February 2021, 773 PWH enrolled in 6 existing cohorts completed 1495 surveys about substance use and engagement in HIV care during the COVID-19 pandemic. We described the prevalence and correlates of having missed a visit with an HIV provider in the past month and having missed a dose of ART in the past week.

Results

Thirteen percent of people missed an HIV visit in the past month. Missing a visit was associated with unstable housing, food insecurity, anxiety, low resiliency, disruptions to mental health care, and substance use including cigarette smoking, hazardous alcohol use, cocaine, and cannabis use. Nineteen percent of people reported missing at least one dose of ART in the week prior to their survey. Missing a dose of ART was associated with being a man, low resiliency, disruptions to mental health care, cigarette smoking, hazardous alcohol use, cocaine, and cannabis use, and experiencing disruptions to substance use treatment.

Conclusions

Social determinants of health, substance use, and disruptions to mental health and substance use treatment were associated with poorer engagement in HIV care. Close attention to continuity of care during times of social disruption is especially critical for PWH.

Proliferation of CD4+ T cells harboring HIV-1 proviruses is a major contributor to viral persistence in people on antiretroviral therapy (ART). To determine whether differential rates of clonal proliferation or HIV-1-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) pressure shape the provirus landscape, we performed an intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) and obtained 661 near-full-length provirus sequences from 8 individuals with suppressed viral loads on ART at time points 7 years apart. We observed slow decay of intact proviruses but no changes in the proportions of various types of defective proviruses. The proportion of intact proviruses in expanded clones was similar to that of defective proviruses in clones. Intact proviruses observed in clones did not have more escaped CTL epitopes than intact proviruses observed as singlets. Concordantly, total proviruses at later time points or observed in clones were not enriched in escaped or unrecognized epitopes. Three individuals with natural control of HIV-1 infection (controllers) on ART, included because controllers have strong HIV-1-specific CTL responses, had a smaller proportion of intact proviruses but a distribution of defective provirus types and escaped or unrecognized epitopes similar to that of the other individuals. This work suggests that CTL selection does not significantly check clonal proliferation of infected cells or greatly alter the provirus landscape in people on ART.

Background

Alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic increased. People living with HIV or at risk for HIV acquisition often have psycho-social and structural barriers or co-occurring substance use making them vulnerable to the adverse effects of alcohol. We describe factors associated with alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic in this group.

Methods

From May 2020 to February 2021, 1984 people enrolled in 6 existing cohort studies completed surveys about alcohol and other drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the past-month prevalence of no alcohol use, low-risk use, and hazardous use. We use multinomial regression to describe factors associated with low-risk or hazardous alcohol use relative to no alcohol use.

Results

Forty-five percent of participants reported no alcohol use, 33% low-risk use, and 22% hazardous use in the past 30 days. Cannabis and stimulant use were associated with a higher prevalence of low-risk use relative to no use. Tobacco, stimulant, cannabis use and recent overdose were associated with a higher prevalence of hazardous use relative to no use. Substance use treatment and living with HIV were associated with a lower prevalence of low-risk or hazardous use relative to no use.

Conclusions

Stimulant use was strongly associated with a higher prevalence of hazardous alcohol use while engagement in substance use treatment or living with HIV was associated with a lower prevalence. Ascertaining hazardous alcohol and other drug use, particularly stimulants, in clinical care could identify people at higher risk for adverse outcome and harm reduction counseling.

Background

Understanding the spectrum of COVID-19 in people with HIV (PWH) is critical to provide clinical guidance and risk reduction strategies.

Setting

Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinic System, a US multisite clinical cohort of PWH in care.

Methods

We identified COVID-19 cases and severity (hospitalization, intensive care, and death) in a large, diverse HIV cohort during March 1, 2020-December 31, 2020. We determined predictors and relative risks of hospitalization among PWH with COVID-19, adjusted for disease risk scores.

Results

Of 16,056 PWH in care, 649 were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and December 2020. Case fatality was 2%; 106 (16.3%) were hospitalized, and 12 died. PWH with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 [aRR 2.68; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.93 to 3.71; P < 0.001] or lowest recorded CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 (aRR 1.67; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.36; P < 0.005) had greater risks of hospitalization. HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy status were not associated with hospitalization, although most of the PWH were suppressed (86%). Black PWH were 51% more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared with other racial/ethnic groups (aRR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.19; P = 0.03). Chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and increased cardiovascular and hepatic fibrosis risk scores were associated with higher hospitalization risk. PWH who were older, not on antiretroviral therapy, and with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 , diabetes, and chronic kidney disease were overrepresented among PWH who required intubation or died.

Conclusions

PWH with CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 , and a history of CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 , have a clear excess risk of severe COVID-19, accounting for comorbidities associated with severe outcomes. PWH with these risk factors should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination and early treatment and monitored closely for worsening illness.