BACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in children in low-resource settings, which is frequently treated with antibiotics. The primary goal of a Shigella vaccine would be to reduce mortality and morbidity associated with Shigella diarrhea. However, ancillary benefits could include reducing antibiotic use and antibiotic exposures for bystander pathogens carried at the time of treatment, specifically for fluoroquinolones and macrolides (F/M), which are the recommended drug classes to treat dysentery. The aim of the study was to quantify the reduction in Shigella attributable diarrhea, all diarrhea, and antibiotic use in the first 2 years of life that could be prevented by a Shigella vaccine. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study, a birth cohort study that followed 1,715 children with twice weekly surveillance for enteric infections, illnesses, and antibiotic use for the first 2 years of life from November 2009 to February 2014 at 8 sites. We estimated the impact of 2 one-dose (6 or 9 months) and 3 two-dose (6 and 9 months, 9 and 12 months, and 12 and 15 months) Shigella vaccines on diarrheal episodes, overall antibiotic use, and F/M use. Further, we considered additional protection through indirect and boosting effects. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the absolute and relative reductions in the incidence of diarrhea and antibiotic use comparing each vaccination scenario to no vaccination. We analyzed 9,392 diarrhea episodes and 15,697 antibiotic courses among 1,715 children in the MAL-ED birth cohort study. There were 273.8 diarrhea episodes, 30.6 shigellosis episodes, and 457.6 antibiotic courses per 100 child-years. A Shigella vaccine with a mean vaccine efficacy of 60% against severe disease given at 9 and 12 months prevented 10.6 (95% CI [9.5, 11.5]) Shigella diarrhea episodes of any severity per 100 child-years (relative 34.5% reduction), 3.0 (95% CI [2.5, 3.5]) F/M courses for Shigella treatment per 100 child-years (relative 35.8% reduction), and 5.6 (95% CI [5.0, 6.3]) antibiotic courses of any drug class for Shigella treatment per 100 child-years (relative 34.5% reduction). This translated to a relative 3.8% reduction in all diarrhea, a relative 2.8% reduction in all F/M courses, a relative 3.1% reduction in F/M exposures to bystander pathogens, and a relative 0.9% reduction in all antibiotic courses. These results reflect Shigella incidence and antibiotic use patterns at the 8 MAL-ED sites and may not be generalizable to all low-resource settings. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulation results suggest that a Shigella vaccine meeting WHO targets for efficacy could prevent about a third of Shigella diarrhea episodes, antibiotic use to treat shigellosis, and bystander exposures due to shigellosis treatment. However, the reductions in overall diarrhea episodes and antibiotic use are expected to be modest (<5%).

Objective

To quantify the frequency of antibiotic treatments attributable to specific enteric pathogens due to the treatment of diarrhoea among children in the first 2 years of life in low-resource settings.

Design

Secondary analysis of a longitudinal birth cohort study, Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED).

Setting

This study was conducted at eight sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Peru, Pakistan, South Africa and Tanzania.

Participants

We analysed 9392 reported diarrhoea episodes, including 6677 with molecular diagnostic test results, as well as 31 408 non-diarrhoeal stools from 1715 children aged 0-2 years with 2 years of complete follow-up data.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

We estimated incidence rates and the proportions of antibiotic use for diarrhoea and for all indications attributable to the top 10 aetiologies of diarrhoea. We estimated associations between specific aetiologies and antibiotic treatment, and assessed whether clinical characteristics of the diarrhoea episodes mediated these relationships.

Results

Shigella and rotavirus were the leading causes of antibiotic treatment, responsible for 11.7% and 8.6% of diarrhoea treatments and 14.8 and 10.9 courses per 100 child-years, respectively. Shigella and rotavirus-attributable diarrhoea episodes were 46% (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.60), and 19% (RR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.31) more likely to be treated with antibiotics, respectively, compared with other aetiologies. Considering antibiotic uses for all indications, these two pathogens accounted for 5.6% of all antibiotic courses, 19.3% of all fluoroquinolone courses and 9.5% of all macrolide courses. Among indicated treatments for dysentery, Shigella and Campylobacter jenjui/Campylobacter coli were responsible for 27.5% and 8.5% of treated episodes, respectively.

Conclusions

The evidence that Shigella and rotavirus were disproportionately responsible for antibiotic use due to their high burden and severity further strengthens the value of interventions targeted to these pathogens. Interventions against Campylobacter could further prevent a large burden of indicated antibiotic treatment for dysentery, which could not be averted by antibiotic stewardship interventions.

Diarrhea is a leading cause of antibiotic consumption among children in low- and middle-income countries. While vaccines may prevent diarrhea infections for which children often receive antibiotics, the contribution of individual enteropathogens to antibiotic use is minimally understood. We used data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to estimate pathogen-specific incidence of antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years old residing in six countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia before rotavirus vaccine implementation. GEMS was an age-stratified, individually-matched case-control study. Stool specimens were obtained from children presenting to sentinel health clinics with newly-onset, acute diarrhea (including moderate-to-severe and less-severe diarrhea) as well as matched community controls without diarrhea. We used data from conventional and quantitative molecular diagnostic assays applied to stool specimens to estimate the proportion of antibiotic-treated diarrhea cases attributable to each pathogen. Antibiotics were administered or prescribed to 9,606 of 12,109 moderate-to-severe cases and 1,844 of 3,174 less-severe cases. Across all sites, incidence rates of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea were 12.2 (95% confidence interval: 9.0-17.8), 10.2 (7.4-13.9) and 1.9 (1.3-3.0) episodes per 100 child-years at risk at ages 6 weeks to 11 months, 12-23 months, and 24-59 months, respectively. Based on the recommendation for antibiotic treatment to be reserved for cases with dysentery, we estimated a ratio of 12.6 (8.6-20.8) inappropriately-treated diarrhea cases for each appropriately-treated case. Rotavirus, adenovirus serotypes 40/41, Shigella, sapovirus, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Cryptosporidium were the leading antibiotic-treated diarrhea etiologies. Rotavirus caused 29.2% (24.5-35.2%) of antibiotic-treated cases, including the largest share in both the first and second years of life. Shigella caused 14.9% (11.4-18.9%) of antibiotic-treated cases, and was the leading etiology at ages 24-59 months. Our findings should inform the prioritization of vaccines with the greatest potential to reduce antibiotic exposure among children.

We analyzed samples obtained at baseline and 24 months in a mass azithromycin administration trial in Niger using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. In villages randomized to azithromycin, Shigella was the only pathogen reduced at 24 months (prevalence ratio, 0.36 [95% confidence interval: .17-.79]; difference in log quantity, -.42 [-.75 to -.10]).

Children in low-resource settings carry enteric pathogens asymptomatically and are frequently treated with antibiotics, resulting in opportunities for pathogens to be exposed to antibiotics when not the target of treatment (i.e., bystander exposure). We quantified the frequency of bystander antibiotic exposures for enteric pathogens and estimated associations with resistance among children in eight low-resource settings. We analyzed 15,697 antibiotic courses from 1,715 children aged 0 to 2 y from the MAL-ED birth cohort. We calculated the incidence of bystander exposures and attributed exposures to respiratory and diarrheal illnesses. We associated bystander exposure with phenotypic susceptibility of E. coli isolates in the 30 d following exposure and at the level of the study site. There were 744.1 subclinical pathogen exposures to antibiotics per 100 child-years. Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli was the most frequently exposed pathogen, with 229.6 exposures per 100 child-years. Almost all antibiotic exposures for Campylobacter (98.8%), enterotoxigenic E. coli (95.6%), and typical enteropathogenic E. coli (99.4%), and the majority for Shigella (77.6%), occurred when the pathogens were not the target of treatment. Respiratory infections accounted for half (49.9%) and diarrheal illnesses accounted for one-fourth (24.6%) of subclinical enteric bacteria exposures to antibiotics. Bystander exposure of E. coli to class-specific antibiotics was associated with the prevalence of phenotypic resistance at the community level. Antimicrobial stewardship and illness-prevention interventions among children in low-resource settings would have a large ancillary benefit of reducing bystander selection that may contribute to antimicrobial resistance.

Background

We evaluated the impact of low-cost water, sanitation, handwashing (WSH) and child nutrition interventions on enteropathogen carriage in the WASH Benefits cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Bangladesh.

Methods

We analyzed 1411 routine fecal samples from children 14±2 months old in the WSH (n = 369), nutrition counseling plus lipid-based nutrient supplement (n = 353), nutrition plus WSH (n = 360), and control (n = 329) arms for 34 enteropathogens using quantitative PCR. Outcomes included the number of co-occurring pathogens; cumulative quantity of four stunting-associated pathogens; and prevalence and quantity of individual pathogens. Masked analysis was by intention-to-treat.

Results

326 (99.1%) control children had one or more enteropathogens detected (mean 3.8±1.8). Children receiving WSH interventions had lower prevalence and quantity of individual viruses than controls (prevalence difference for norovirus: -11% [95% confidence interval [CI], -5 to -17%]; sapovirus: -9% [95%CI, -3 to -15%]; and adenovirus 40/41: -9% [95%CI, -2 to - 15%]). There was no difference in bacteria, parasites, or cumulative quantity of stunting-associated pathogens between controls and any intervention arm.

Conclusions

WSH interventions were associated with fewer enteric viruses in children aged 14 months. Different strategies are needed to reduce enteric bacteria and parasites at this critical young age.

Background

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

Methods

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

Findings

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

Interpretation

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.