Among 1942 persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without healthcare coverage in 2012-2015, transitioning to Medicaid (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.95 [0.87, 1.04]) or to private health insurance (1.04 [0.95, 1.13]) was not associated with a change in consistent HIV viral suppression compared to continued reliance on the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

Background

Retention in care (RIC) leads to reduced HIV transmission and mortality. Few studies have investigated clinic services and RIC among people living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States. We conducted a multisite retrospective cohort study to identify clinic services associated with RIC from 2010-2016 in the United States.

Methods

PLWH with ≥1 HIV primary care visit from 2010-2016 at 7 sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) were included. Clinic-level factors evaluated via site survey included patients per provider/trainee, navigation, RIC posters/brochures, laboratory test timing, flexible scheduling, appointment reminder methods, and stigma support services. RIC was defined as ≥2 encounters per year, ≥90 days apart, observed until death, administrative censoring (31 December 2016), or loss to follow-up (censoring at first 12-month interval without a visit with no future visits). Poisson regression with robust error variance, clustered by site adjusting for calendar year, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and HIV transmission risk factor, estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RIC.

Results

Among 21 046 PLWH contributing 103 348 person-years, 67% of person-years were retained. Availability of text appointment reminders (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.24) and stigma support services (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19) were associated with better RIC. Disparities persisted for age, sex, and race.

Conclusions

Availability of text appointment reminders and stigma support services was associated with higher rates of RIC, indicating that these may be feasible and effective approaches for improving RIC.

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level.

Methods

We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified.

Results

Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700.

Conclusions

Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence.

Background

Prior studies suggest that transgender women (TW) with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are less likely to be virally suppressed than cisgender women (CW) and cisgender men (CM). However, prior data are limited by small sample sizes and cross-sectional designs. We sought to characterize the HIV care continuum comparing TW to CW and CM in the United States and Canada.

Methods

We analyzed annual HIV care continuum outcomes by gender status from January 2001 through December 2015 among adults (aged ≥18 years) in 15 clinical cohorts. Outcomes were retention in care and viral suppression.

Results

The study population included TW (n = 396), CW (n = 14 094), and CM (n = 101 667). TW had lower proportions retained in care than CW and CM (P < .01). Estimates of retention in care were consistently lower in TW, with little change over time within each group. TW and CW had similar proportions virally suppressed over time (TW, 36% in 2001 and 80% in 2015; CW, 35% in 2001 and 83% in 2015) and were lower than CM (41% in 2001 and 87% in 2015). These differences did not reach statistical significance after adjusting for age, race, HIV risk group, and cohort.

Conclusions

TW experience challenges with retention in HIV care. However, TW who are engaged in care achieve viral suppression that is comparable to that of CW and CM of similar age, race, and HIV risk group. Further research is needed to understand care engagement disparities.

Background

Retention in care is key to improving HIV outcomes. The goal of this study was to describe 'churn' in patterns of entry, exit, and retention in HIV care in the United States and Canada.

Methods

Adults contributing ≥1 CD4 count or HIV-1 RNA (HIV-lab) from 2000 to 2008 in North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design clinical cohorts were included. Incomplete retention was defined as lack of 2 HIV-laboratories (≥90 days apart) within 12 months, summarized by calendar year. Beta-binomial regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of factors associated with incomplete retention.

Results

Among 61,438 participants, 15,360 (25%) with incomplete retention significantly differed in univariate analyses (P < 0.001) from 46,078 (75%) consistently retained by age, race/ethnicity, HIV risk, CD4, antiretroviral therapy use, and country of care (United States vs. Canada). From 2000 to 2004, females (OR = 0.82, CI: 0.70 to 0.95), older individuals (OR = 0.78, CI: 0.74 to 0.83 per 10 years), and antiretroviral therapy users (OR = 0.61, CI: 0.54 to 0.68 vs. all others) were less likely to have incomplete retention, whereas black individuals (OR = 1.31, CI: 1.16 to 1.49, vs. white), those with injection drug use HIV risk (OR = 1.68, CI: 1.49 to 1.89, vs. noninjection drug use), and those in care longer (OR = 1.09, CI: 1.07 to 1.11 per year) were more likely to have incomplete retention. Results from 2005 to 2008 were similar.

Discussion

From 2000 to 2008, 75% of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design population was consistently retained in care with 25% experiencing some changes in status or churn. In addition to the programmatic and policy implications, the findings of this study identify patient groups who may benefit from focused retention efforts.

Background

The U.S. National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for 2015 include "increasing access to care and improving health outcomes for persons living with HIV in the United States" (PLWH-US).

Objective

To demonstrate the utility of the NA-ACCORD (North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design) for monitoring trends in the HIV epidemic in the United States and to present trends in HIV treatment and related health outcomes.

Design

Trends from annual cross-sectional analyses comparing patients from pooled, multicenter, prospective, clinical HIV cohort studies with PLWH-US, as reported to national surveillance systems in 40 states.

Setting

U.S. HIV outpatient clinics.

Patients

HIV-infected adults with 1 or more HIV RNA plasma viral load (HIV VL) or CD4 T-lymphocyte (CD4) cell count measured in any calendar year from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2008.

Measurements

Annual rates of antiretroviral therapy use, HIV VL, and CD4 cell count at death.

Results

45 529 HIV-infected persons received care in an NA-ACCORD-participating U.S. clinical cohort from 2000 to 2008. In 2008, the 26 030 NA-ACCORD participants in care and the 655 966 PLWH-US had qualitatively similar demographic characteristics. From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants prescribed highly active antiretroviral therapy increased by 9 percentage points to 83% (P < 0.001), whereas the proportion with suppressed HIV VL (≤2.7 log10 copies/mL) increased by 26 percentage points to 72% (P < 0.001). Median CD4 cell count at death more than tripled to 0.209 × 109 cells/L (P < 0.001).

Limitation

The usual limitations of observational data apply.

Conclusion

The NA-ACCORD is the largest cohort of HIV-infected adults in clinical care in the United States that is demographically similar to PLWH-US in 2008. From 2000 to 2008, increases were observed in the percentage of prescribed HAART, the percentage who achieved a suppressed HIV VL, and the median CD4 cell count at death.

Primary funding source

National Institutes of Health; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Canadian HIV Trials Network; and the government of British Columbia, Canada.

Background

Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030.

Methods and findings

Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts.

Conclusions

The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Improvements in life expectancy among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States and Canada might differ among key populations. Given the difference in substance use among key populations and the current opioid epidemic, drug- and alcohol-related deaths might be contributing to the disparities in life expectancy. We sought to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years in key populations (and their comparison groups) in 3 time periods (2004-2007, 2008-2011, and 2012-2015) and the potential increase in expected life expectancy with a simulated 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related deaths using the novel Lives Saved Simulation model. Among 92,289 PLWH, life expectancy increased in all key populations and comparison groups from 2004-2007 to 2012-2015. Disparities in survival of approximately a decade persisted among black versus white men who have sex with men and people with (vs. without) a history of injection drug use. A 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related mortality would have the greatest life-expectancy benefit for black men who have sex with men, white women, and people with a history of injection drug use. Our findings suggest that preventing drug- and alcohol-related deaths among PLWH could narrow disparities in life expectancy among some key populations, but other causes of death must be addressed to further narrow the disparities.

Introduction

Weight gain following antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is common, potentially predisposing some persons with HIV (PWH) to cardio-metabolic disease. We assessed relationships between ART drug class and weight change among treatment-naïve PWH initiating ART in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD).

Methods

Adult, treatment-naïve PWH in NA-ACCORD initiating integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI), protease inhibitor (PI) or non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART on/after 1 January 2007 were followed through 31 December 2016. Multivariate linear mixed effects models estimated weight up to five years after ART initiation, adjusting for age, sex, race, cohort site, HIV acquisition mode, treatment year, and baseline weight, plasma HIV-1 RNA level and CD4⁺ cell count. Due to shorter follow-up for PWH receiving newer INSTI drugs, weights for specific INSTIs were estimated at two years. Secondary analyses using logistic regression and all covariates from primary analyses assessed factors associated with >10% weight gain at two and five years.

Results

Among 22,972 participants, 87% were male, and 41% were white. 49% started NNRTI-, 31% started PI- and 20% started INSTI-based regimens (1624 raltegravir (RAL), 2085 elvitegravir (EVG) and 929 dolutegravir (DTG)). PWH starting INSTI-based regimens had mean estimated five-year weight change of +5.9kg, compared to +3.7kg for NNRTI and +5.5kg for PI. Among PWH starting INSTI drugs, mean estimated two-year weight change was +7.2kg for DTG, +5.8kg for RAL and +4.1kg for EVG. Women, persons with lower baseline CD4⁺ cell counts, and those initiating INSTI-based regimens had higher odds of >10% body weight increase at two years (adjusted odds ratio = 1.37, 95% confidence interval: 1.20 to 1.56 vs. NNRTI).

Conclusions

PWH initiating INSTI-based regimens gained, on average, more weight compared to NNRTI-based regimens. This phenomenon may reflect heterogeneous effects of ART agents on body weight regulation that require further exploration.

Background

Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population.

Objective

To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time.

Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting

Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.

Participants

82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Measurements

Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function.

Results

Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017.

Limitation

Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors.

Conclusion

Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population.

Primary funding source

National Institutes of Health.