The aim of this paper was to evaluate the factors that predict regression of untreated CIN 2 and 3. A total of 93 patients with colposcopic persistent CIN 2 and 3 lesions after biopsy were followed for 6 months. Human papillomavirus (HPV) types were determined by polymerase chain reaction at enrolment. We analysed the biologic and demographic predictors of natural regression using univariate and multivariate methods. The overall regression rate was 52% (48 out of 93), including 58% (22 out of 38) of CIN 2 and 47% (26 out of 55) of CIN 3 lesions (P=0.31 for difference). Human papillomavirus was detected in 84% (78 out of 93) of patients. In univariate analysis, 80% (12 out of 15) of lesions without HPV regressed compared to 46% (36 out of 78) of lesions with HPV infection (P=0.016). Women without HPV and those who had a resolution of HPV had a four-fold higher chance of regression than those with persistent HPV (relative odds=3.5, 95% CI=1.4-8.6). Women with five or fewer lifetime sexual partners had higher rates of regression than women with more than five partners (P=0.003). In multivariate analysis, HPV status and number of sexual partners remained as significant independent predictors of regression. In conclusion, HPV status and number of lifetime sexual partners were strongly predictive of regression of untreated CIN 2 and 3.

To evaluate the effect of daily beta-carotene (30 mg) versus placebo over a 2-year period on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 and 3 lesions. Human papillomavirus (HPV) typing was done to determine whether lesion regression was related to HPV. Micronutrient levels were measured to determine whether levels were predictive of regression. Variables that influence the risk of HPV infection and CIN, such as cigarette smoking and sexual behavior, were evaluated. Women were randomized to beta-carotene or placebo, with cytology and colposcopy every 3 months. Cervical biopsies were performed before treatment and after 6 and 24 months to evaluate response. Persistence of or progression to CIN 3 resulted in removal from the study, whereas treatment continued for 2 years on all others. The presence and type of HPV was determined by PCR. Response was defined as an improvement in CIN by 2 grades. Mantel-Haenszel chi(2) test was used to analyze response to treatment. Fisher's exact test was used to determine the effect of HPV and CIN grade on response Wilcoxon's rank-sum tests were used to compare micronutrient levels between groups. Twenty-one of 124 enrolled women were not randomized because they either moved, became pregnant, voluntarily withdrew, or the pathological review of their initial cervical biopsies did not confirm CIN 2 or 3. Of the remaining 103 women, 33 experienced lesion regression, 45 had persistent or progressive disease, and 25 women did not complete the study and were considered nonresponders in the final analysis. The overall regression rate (32%) was similar between treatment arms and when stratified for CIN grade. Data on 99 women with HPV typing showed that 77% were HPV-positive and 23% HPV-negative at enrollment. HPV-positive lesions were subdivided into indeterminate-, low-, and high-risk categories; the response rate was highest for women with no HPV detected (61%), lower for indeterminate/low-risk (30%), and lowest for high-risk (18%; P =.001). CIN regression was negatively correlated with retinol levels. In conclusion, beta-carotene does not enhance the regression of high-grade CIN, especially in HPV-positive subjects.