In this letter we introduce the idea and purpose of dynamic belief elicitation as explored in our working paper [Chambers and Lambert 2014]. In many economic.
We present a protocol for eliciting dynamic beliefs from forecasters. At time t = 0, forecasters hold beliefs about a random variable of interest that will ...
We present a protocol for eliciting dynamic beliefs from forecasters. At time t = 0, forecasters hold beliefs about a random variable of interest that will ...
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What is belief elicitation?
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At an initial time, an individual forms a belief about a future random outcome. As time passes, the individual may obtain, privately or subjectively, ...
We present a protocol for eliciting dynamic beliefs from forecasters. At time t = 0, forecasters hold beliefs about a random variable of interest that will ...
Jan 1, 2021 · For instance, dynamic weather forecasts are more naturally expressed in terms of probability densities over future measurements and observations ...
Here we introduce a class of protocols that forms the basis of our elicitation method. Central to our protocols are three instruments: securities, menus of ...
At an initial time, an individual forms a belief about a future random outcome. As time passes, the individual may obtain, privately or subjectively, ...
Jan 1, 2021 · At an initial time, an individual forms a belief about a future random outcome. As time passes, the individual may obtain, privately or ...
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We then discuss belief-elicitation methods divided into three cat- egories according to their complexity. Most of these methods elicit beliefs when the outcome ...