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Gerard Kuper

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Case Western Reserve University

Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)

Isabel Nogueira

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

Aix-Marseille Université

Carlos Palombini

UFMG - The Federal University of Minas Gerais

Maria V. Stanyukovich

Russian academy of sciences, Peter the Great Museum of Antropology and Ethnography

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)

Cassio Brancaleone

Universidade Federal Fronteira Sul

Conservatorio di musica "San Pietro a Majella" di Napoli

Gisa Jähnichen

Shanghai Conservatory of Music

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Papers by Gerard Kuper

Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch-German gas market

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2013

We estimate the contribution of institutional changes in the Dutch and German gas markets to the ... more We estimate the contribution of institutional changes in the Dutch and German gas markets to the integration of these markets. We measure this contribution through the impact of bottlenecks in the cross-border infrastructure on cross-border price differences. In the period 2007-2011, the differences in both price levels and price volatility between these two markets decreased. We find evidence that institutional changes in the Dutch market, in particular the abolishment of the obligation to book quality-conversion capacity, have reduced the impact of cross-border infrastructure bottlenecks on regional price differences. The integration of German regional networks into larger systems, however, appear to have had a negative effect on the integration with the Dutch market.

The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2004

It is sometimes argued that news reports in the media suffer from biased reporting. Mullainathan ... more It is sometimes argued that news reports in the media suffer from biased reporting. Mullainathan and Shleifer (2002) argue that there are two types of media bias. One bias, called ideology, reflects a news outlet's desire to affect reader opinions in a particular direction. The second bias, referred to as spin, reflects the outlet's attempt to simply create a memorable story. Competition between outlets can eliminate the effect of ideological bias, but increases the incentive to spin stories. We examine whether we find some evidence of spin in Dutch newspaper reporting on the state of the economy. If newspapers are indeed able to create memorable stories this should, according to our hypothesis, affect the opinion of readers with respect to the state of the economy. Sentiments about the actual state of the economy could be magnified by spin. As a result, consumer confidence-a variable that routinely measures the opinion on the state of the economy-can be expected to be affected not only by economic fundamentals, but also by the way these fundamentals are reported. We construct a variable that reflects the way consumers perceive economic news reported in newspapers. We find that this variable indeed has a significant impact on consumer confidence, which is short-lived.

Book Review: R.T. Baillie and P. McMahon, The foreign exchange market: theory and econometric evidence

Economist-netherlands, 1990

Social choice theory is a flourishing branch of applied logic. Its development is, however, inter... more Social choice theory is a flourishing branch of applied logic. Its development is, however, intertwined with scepticism in mainstream economics and poitical science. Do all these clever theorems have anything to do with the performance of markets and governments in the real world? Both Arrow and Sen, the founding fathers of social choice theory, now acknowledge the force of this question and invite scholars to examine the substantial interpretations and implications of formal results. Riley, an Oxonian pupil of Sen, takes up their challenge. His reinterpretation of J.S. Mill's utilitarianism is intended as a demonstration of the relevance of social choice theory to normative democratic theory. It is clear that his analysis is of special interest to welfare economists and political philosophers. As for the relevance to microeconomics and positive democratic theory, I am less sure. The argument proceeds through three stages. The first stage is an analysis of the connection between social choice theory and utilitarianism, which amounts to a substitution of narrow welfarism (Arrow's ordinalist framework) by broad welfarism. The second stage is a reconstruction of Mill's welfarism in line with revisionism (John Gray, Fred Berger). The third stage is a defense of domain restriction as a solution to Gibbard's problem of inconsistent libertarianism and Sen's problem of inconsistent Paretian libertarianism. The institutionalization of this solution leads to a specific design of democratic political institutions in ideal and real-world contexts, which is the last topic of Riley's analysis. Stage one starts with a description of Arrow's welfarist philosophy. Riley tries to show that Arrow is a definitional egoist who assumes that individuals reveal their given and selfish values by taking part in collective decision-making, e.g., by voting. The failure of Arrow's social welfare function, conceived as a general foundation of liberal democracy, is the exclusion of rich utility information. The author realizes, of course, that Arrow responds to this failure bij developing a social welfare function, based on extended preference (placing oneself in the position of other individuals). Benthamite utilitarianism returns through the front door of redefined axiomatization and definitional egoism is abandoned, while individual values are still taken as data. Riley's review of several criticisms of Benthamite utilitarianism (unrestricted domain, welfarism, Paretianism, Sen's impossibility, strong anonimity, cardinalism) leads to a rejection of

Coordination and Growth

Capital shortage and entry

Coordination and growth : essays in honour of Simon K. Kuipers

Kluwer Academic Publishers eBooks, 2001

... I. Kuipers, SK (Simon Klaas) II ... xii Contributors Arnold Heertje, Department of Economics,... more

Mergers of Gas Market Areas and Competition Amongst Transmission System Operators: Evidence on Booking Behaviour in the German Markets

Social Science Research Network, 2018

Transmission networks are crucial for gas wholesale markets. In the past, the individual networks... more Transmission networks are crucial for gas wholesale markets. In the past, the individual networks of transmission system operators (TSOs) determined market areas in the European Union, but driven by the prospect of higher liquidity in the wholesale market, welfare gains for society as well as completion of the internal energy market, market areas have been merged. Such market mergers, however, may also lead to competition amongst TSOs, as network users gain the possibility to book interchangeable capacity at different TSOs within one market area. A necessary condition for competition amongst TSOs is that network users book network capacity efficiently. This paper analyses whether this has been the case in the German market areas, which have experienced the highest market integration so far. We find that network users' booking behaviour is fairly efficient. We also find that it is important to control for differences in country specific capacity types. In those cases where a more expensive alternative is preferred over a cheaper alternative, this inefficient behaviour can be largely attributed to differences in capacity types. We conclude that gas TSOs may not operate as pure natural monopolists anymore.

Inventories and Wholesale Gasoline Price Dynamics

Social Science Research Network, 2008

... To test the symmetry hypothesis, we rewrite the model as in Bachmeier and Griffin (2003): ...... more

Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices Adjust Asymmetrically?

Social Science Research Network, 2005

This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correct... more This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has a larger effect on the variance of the producer price than an unexpected decrease. We do not find strong evidence for amount asymmetry. However, there is a faster reaction to upward changes in spot prices than to downward changes in spot prices. This implies timing or pattern asymmetry. This asymmetry starts three days after the change in the spot price and lasts for four days.

Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch–German gas market

Energy Economics, 2016

We evaluate the contribution of nine institutional changes to the integration of the Dutch and Ge... more We evaluate the contribution of nine institutional changes to the integration of the Dutch and German gas markets. We analyse this contribution through the impact of bottlenecks in the cross-border infrastructure on the absolute value of cross-border price differences. In the period 2007-2013, the absolute value of the differences in price levels between the Dutch and the German NCG market decreased, indicating more integration. We find evidence that the improved connections within the German networks as well as between the Dutch and the German network contributed to this. The strengthening of the connections with the UK market and the Russian supply, however, had a negative effect on market integration between the Dutch and the German NCG market. The liquidity-enhancing changes within the Dutch market had a negligible effect.

Methods and Applications of Economic Dynamics

Preface. Contributors. Introduction and overview (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken). Integrating dynamic... more Preface. Contributors. Introduction and overview (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken). Integrating dynamics and equilibrium in (large) models (F Huizinga, P. Kooiman). Advances in the estimation and analysis of non-linear differential equation models in economics (C.R. Wymer). Evaluating the dynamic properties of macroeconometric models (A.P. Barten). Graph-theory based tools in the practice of macroeconometric modeling (M. Gilli). Causality and dynamic analysis of MEFISTO: the monetary and financial model of the Banque de France (M. Boutillier, P. Jacquinot). Shock resilience in macroeconometric models under error correction and consistent expectations (A. Brandsma, A. Italianer). Model-consistent learning: some recent developments (S.G. Hall, A. Garratt). Policy simulations and long-run sustainability in forward-looking macroeconometric models (P.N. Smith, K.F. Wallis). The long run of macroeconometric models: the case of MULTIMOD (R. Loufir, P. Malgrange). Modeling the dynamics of net wages (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken). The dynamics of investment: an application to Dutch manufacturing industries (G.H. Kuper). On the empirics of endogenous economic growth (A. van Schaik). Author index. Subject index.

De wereldranglijst als voorspeller van de kans op het bereiken van de kwartfinales in het Olympische Badmintontoernooi

03/02677 Path-dependency and input substitution: implications for energy policy modelling

Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Nov 1, 2003

Review: Investment: Volume 1: Capital theory and investment behavior

The Economic Journal, Nov 1, 1998

Evenwicht, conjunctuur en groei

Using tennis rankings to predict performance in upcoming tournaments

We show how to use ATP and WTA rankings to estimate the probability that a player with a certain ... more We show how to use ATP and WTA rankings to estimate the probability that a player with a certain ranking advances to a specific round (for instance, the quarterfinals) in an upcoming tournament. We use the results from Grand Slam and Olympic tournaments in the period 2004-2014. Pooling the data, which is justified according to our tests, allows us to compute probabilities with relatively small confidence intervals. For instance, the probability of a top 4 tennis player to reach the quarterfinals is 0.722 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.669; 0.771). This study was motivated by a request from the Dutch Olympic Committee (NOC*NSF). Based on our results, NOC*NSF decides which Dutch single tennis players to invite to participate at the 2016 Olympic Games of Rio de Janeiro.

Mergers of Germany's natural gas market areas: Is transmission capacity booked efficiently?

Utilities Policy, Feb 1, 2019

Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more

Olympic Participation and Performance since 1896

Social Science Research Network, 2001

We analyze the decision to participate and Olympic performance at the country level. We use an un... more We analyze the decision to participate and Olympic performance at the country level. We use an unbalanced panel of 118 countries over 24 editions of the Olympic Summer Games. The main focus of the paper is on economic, geographic and demographic explanations of Olympic participation and success. We estimate the impact of income per capita, population size, home advantage, and institutional variables on participation and success rates. We present separate results for events before the Second World War and after. These results show that income is an important determinant of Olympic participation and success. Socialist countries send more athletes to the games and have more success in medal counts. The home advantage has become less prominent.

The powers that are: central bank independence in the Greenspan era

Empirical Economics, Jan 7, 2017

Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more

Why Didn't the Global Financial Crisis Hit Latin America?

Social Science Research Network, 2011

CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies d... more CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisations-membres, d'une subvention d'infrastructure du Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Québec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams.

Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch-German gas market

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2013

We estimate the contribution of institutional changes in the Dutch and German gas markets to the ... more We estimate the contribution of institutional changes in the Dutch and German gas markets to the integration of these markets. We measure this contribution through the impact of bottlenecks in the cross-border infrastructure on cross-border price differences. In the period 2007-2011, the differences in both price levels and price volatility between these two markets decreased. We find evidence that institutional changes in the Dutch market, in particular the abolishment of the obligation to book quality-conversion capacity, have reduced the impact of cross-border infrastructure bottlenecks on regional price differences. The integration of German regional networks into larger systems, however, appear to have had a negative effect on the integration with the Dutch market.

The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2004

It is sometimes argued that news reports in the media suffer from biased reporting. Mullainathan ... more It is sometimes argued that news reports in the media suffer from biased reporting. Mullainathan and Shleifer (2002) argue that there are two types of media bias. One bias, called ideology, reflects a news outlet's desire to affect reader opinions in a particular direction. The second bias, referred to as spin, reflects the outlet's attempt to simply create a memorable story. Competition between outlets can eliminate the effect of ideological bias, but increases the incentive to spin stories. We examine whether we find some evidence of spin in Dutch newspaper reporting on the state of the economy. If newspapers are indeed able to create memorable stories this should, according to our hypothesis, affect the opinion of readers with respect to the state of the economy. Sentiments about the actual state of the economy could be magnified by spin. As a result, consumer confidence-a variable that routinely measures the opinion on the state of the economy-can be expected to be affected not only by economic fundamentals, but also by the way these fundamentals are reported. We construct a variable that reflects the way consumers perceive economic news reported in newspapers. We find that this variable indeed has a significant impact on consumer confidence, which is short-lived.

Book Review: R.T. Baillie and P. McMahon, The foreign exchange market: theory and econometric evidence

Economist-netherlands, 1990

Social choice theory is a flourishing branch of applied logic. Its development is, however, inter... more Social choice theory is a flourishing branch of applied logic. Its development is, however, intertwined with scepticism in mainstream economics and poitical science. Do all these clever theorems have anything to do with the performance of markets and governments in the real world? Both Arrow and Sen, the founding fathers of social choice theory, now acknowledge the force of this question and invite scholars to examine the substantial interpretations and implications of formal results. Riley, an Oxonian pupil of Sen, takes up their challenge. His reinterpretation of J.S. Mill's utilitarianism is intended as a demonstration of the relevance of social choice theory to normative democratic theory. It is clear that his analysis is of special interest to welfare economists and political philosophers. As for the relevance to microeconomics and positive democratic theory, I am less sure. The argument proceeds through three stages. The first stage is an analysis of the connection between social choice theory and utilitarianism, which amounts to a substitution of narrow welfarism (Arrow's ordinalist framework) by broad welfarism. The second stage is a reconstruction of Mill's welfarism in line with revisionism (John Gray, Fred Berger). The third stage is a defense of domain restriction as a solution to Gibbard's problem of inconsistent libertarianism and Sen's problem of inconsistent Paretian libertarianism. The institutionalization of this solution leads to a specific design of democratic political institutions in ideal and real-world contexts, which is the last topic of Riley's analysis. Stage one starts with a description of Arrow's welfarist philosophy. Riley tries to show that Arrow is a definitional egoist who assumes that individuals reveal their given and selfish values by taking part in collective decision-making, e.g., by voting. The failure of Arrow's social welfare function, conceived as a general foundation of liberal democracy, is the exclusion of rich utility information. The author realizes, of course, that Arrow responds to this failure bij developing a social welfare function, based on extended preference (placing oneself in the position of other individuals). Benthamite utilitarianism returns through the front door of redefined axiomatization and definitional egoism is abandoned, while individual values are still taken as data. Riley's review of several criticisms of Benthamite utilitarianism (unrestricted domain, welfarism, Paretianism, Sen's impossibility, strong anonimity, cardinalism) leads to a rejection of

Coordination and Growth

Capital shortage and entry

Coordination and growth : essays in honour of Simon K. Kuipers

Kluwer Academic Publishers eBooks, 2001

... I. Kuipers, SK (Simon Klaas) II ... xii Contributors Arnold Heertje, Department of Economics,... more

Mergers of Gas Market Areas and Competition Amongst Transmission System Operators: Evidence on Booking Behaviour in the German Markets

Social Science Research Network, 2018

Transmission networks are crucial for gas wholesale markets. In the past, the individual networks... more Transmission networks are crucial for gas wholesale markets. In the past, the individual networks of transmission system operators (TSOs) determined market areas in the European Union, but driven by the prospect of higher liquidity in the wholesale market, welfare gains for society as well as completion of the internal energy market, market areas have been merged. Such market mergers, however, may also lead to competition amongst TSOs, as network users gain the possibility to book interchangeable capacity at different TSOs within one market area. A necessary condition for competition amongst TSOs is that network users book network capacity efficiently. This paper analyses whether this has been the case in the German market areas, which have experienced the highest market integration so far. We find that network users' booking behaviour is fairly efficient. We also find that it is important to control for differences in country specific capacity types. In those cases where a more expensive alternative is preferred over a cheaper alternative, this inefficient behaviour can be largely attributed to differences in capacity types. We conclude that gas TSOs may not operate as pure natural monopolists anymore.

Inventories and Wholesale Gasoline Price Dynamics

Social Science Research Network, 2008

... To test the symmetry hypothesis, we rewrite the model as in Bachmeier and Griffin (2003): ...... more

Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices Adjust Asymmetrically?

Social Science Research Network, 2005

This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correct... more This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has a larger effect on the variance of the producer price than an unexpected decrease. We do not find strong evidence for amount asymmetry. However, there is a faster reaction to upward changes in spot prices than to downward changes in spot prices. This implies timing or pattern asymmetry. This asymmetry starts three days after the change in the spot price and lasts for four days.

Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch–German gas market

Energy Economics, 2016

We evaluate the contribution of nine institutional changes to the integration of the Dutch and Ge... more We evaluate the contribution of nine institutional changes to the integration of the Dutch and German gas markets. We analyse this contribution through the impact of bottlenecks in the cross-border infrastructure on the absolute value of cross-border price differences. In the period 2007-2013, the absolute value of the differences in price levels between the Dutch and the German NCG market decreased, indicating more integration. We find evidence that the improved connections within the German networks as well as between the Dutch and the German network contributed to this. The strengthening of the connections with the UK market and the Russian supply, however, had a negative effect on market integration between the Dutch and the German NCG market. The liquidity-enhancing changes within the Dutch market had a negligible effect.

Methods and Applications of Economic Dynamics

Preface. Contributors. Introduction and overview (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken). Integrating dynamic... more Preface. Contributors. Introduction and overview (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken). Integrating dynamics and equilibrium in (large) models (F Huizinga, P. Kooiman). Advances in the estimation and analysis of non-linear differential equation models in economics (C.R. Wymer). Evaluating the dynamic properties of macroeconometric models (A.P. Barten). Graph-theory based tools in the practice of macroeconometric modeling (M. Gilli). Causality and dynamic analysis of MEFISTO: the monetary and financial model of the Banque de France (M. Boutillier, P. Jacquinot). Shock resilience in macroeconometric models under error correction and consistent expectations (A. Brandsma, A. Italianer). Model-consistent learning: some recent developments (S.G. Hall, A. Garratt). Policy simulations and long-run sustainability in forward-looking macroeconometric models (P.N. Smith, K.F. Wallis). The long run of macroeconometric models: the case of MULTIMOD (R. Loufir, P. Malgrange). Modeling the dynamics of net wages (L. Schoonbeek, E. Sterken). The dynamics of investment: an application to Dutch manufacturing industries (G.H. Kuper). On the empirics of endogenous economic growth (A. van Schaik). Author index. Subject index.

De wereldranglijst als voorspeller van de kans op het bereiken van de kwartfinales in het Olympische Badmintontoernooi

03/02677 Path-dependency and input substitution: implications for energy policy modelling

Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Nov 1, 2003

Review: Investment: Volume 1: Capital theory and investment behavior

The Economic Journal, Nov 1, 1998

Evenwicht, conjunctuur en groei

Using tennis rankings to predict performance in upcoming tournaments

We show how to use ATP and WTA rankings to estimate the probability that a player with a certain ... more We show how to use ATP and WTA rankings to estimate the probability that a player with a certain ranking advances to a specific round (for instance, the quarterfinals) in an upcoming tournament. We use the results from Grand Slam and Olympic tournaments in the period 2004-2014. Pooling the data, which is justified according to our tests, allows us to compute probabilities with relatively small confidence intervals. For instance, the probability of a top 4 tennis player to reach the quarterfinals is 0.722 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.669; 0.771). This study was motivated by a request from the Dutch Olympic Committee (NOC*NSF). Based on our results, NOC*NSF decides which Dutch single tennis players to invite to participate at the 2016 Olympic Games of Rio de Janeiro.

Mergers of Germany's natural gas market areas: Is transmission capacity booked efficiently?

Utilities Policy, Feb 1, 2019

Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more

Olympic Participation and Performance since 1896

Social Science Research Network, 2001

We analyze the decision to participate and Olympic performance at the country level. We use an un... more We analyze the decision to participate and Olympic performance at the country level. We use an unbalanced panel of 118 countries over 24 editions of the Olympic Summer Games. The main focus of the paper is on economic, geographic and demographic explanations of Olympic participation and success. We estimate the impact of income per capita, population size, home advantage, and institutional variables on participation and success rates. We present separate results for events before the Second World War and after. These results show that income is an important determinant of Olympic participation and success. Socialist countries send more athletes to the games and have more success in medal counts. The home advantage has become less prominent.

The powers that are: central bank independence in the Greenspan era

Empirical Economics, Jan 7, 2017

Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more

Why Didn't the Global Financial Crisis Hit Latin America?

Social Science Research Network, 2011

CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies d... more CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisations-membres, d'une subvention d'infrastructure du Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Québec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams.