Could the U.S. build enough nerd factories to replace H-1Bs?
There’s currently a debate about whether mediocre nerds should be imported into the U.S. via H-1B or only supernerds, perhaps via the O-1 visa (both of these are “nonimmigrant” visas and yet everyone who gets one seems to end up as a permanent immigrant to the United States). The main argument supporting a massive annual influx of nerds is that Americans cannot and will not do nerd work, just as Americans cannot and will not do any hard work, which is why we need a border open to low-skill undocumented migrants.
Could the U.S. grow its own nerd supply based on native-born Americans? As it turns out, I have some experience in this area! About 25 years ago, I started “ArsDigita University”, a post-baccalaureate program in which people who had non-nerd degrees could take all of the core undergrad computer science classes in a TA-supervised cooperative open office-style environment. People just had to show up for 9-5 every day for a year and they’d come out knowing pretty much everything that a standard CS bachelor’s degree holder would know. Not a “coding camp”, in other words, but traditional CS knowledge. The big differences compared to a traditional university were (1) take one course at a time, and (2) do all of the work together in one room so that it would be easy to get help from another student or a TA.
Did it work? We ran it for just one year, but as far as I know everyone who completed the program got the kind of job that someone graduating with a CS bachelor’s would get.
As loyal readers may be aware, I’ve long been a critic of the traditional four-year college/university. Simply getting rid of summer and winter breaks would reduce the time required to get a degree and begin a career to 2.5 years. 18-20-year-olds are blessed with tremendous health and energy and shouldn’t need to take nearly half the year off. Here are some examples of my previous criticisms:
- “Universities and Economic Growth” (2009), includes a “Stop grading your own students” section
- “What’s wrong with the standard undergraduate computer science curriculum” (2004, but the curriculum hasn’t changed too much since then except for the addition of some machine learning!)
- “Teaching Software Engineering” (2001), on the magic of project-based learning when the goal is to teach people how to handle engineering projects
If we’re going to cut back on H-1Bs, though, we might need to get a little more radical. Following the lead of the Germans/Swiss, we should try to set things up so that a high-school graduate is ready to begin work in the tech mines as an apprentice nerdlet. We can have some demanding career-oriented classes for smart kids where the goal is not to get into college, but instead to get a job at age 18 and continue to develop skills that are obtained via certificate programs with independently administered exams. These would be like the current Microsoft and Cisco certification programs, but with a much broader array of options, e.g., for having learned physics, math, data science, machine learning, etc. to various levels (Coursera maybe already does this). These certifications could also help older workers who’ve maintained their skills. Instead of showing an employer a 35-year-old transcript as evidence that physics and engineering classes were taken, an applicant could show the employer 6-month-old certifications that physics and engineering are currently understood.
I’m not sure what the argument, from an employer’s point of view, for the traditional 4-year-old college experience is. For the lucky kids who get to attend a top-100 school, it’s obviously great fun to hang out with friends, attend football games, have sex with a lot of different partners, and occasionally study. But how do these experiences make a person a more effective worker? I think the answer is “generally, they don’t”. One of my former neighbors in Maskachusetts spent about $1 million on private school and college for a child who is now working as a receptionist for an HVAC company in a city that is notable for its rich concentration of marijuana and meth stores. Plainly this is something that the girl could have done just as easily on graduation from high school, consistent with the book Academically Adrift:
At the heart of the book is an analysis of data from the Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA), which requires students to synthesize data from various sources and write up a report with a recommendation. It turns out that attending college is a very inefficient way to improve one’s performance at this kind of task. After three semesters, the average college student’s score improved by 0.18 standard deviation or seven percentile points (e.g., the sophomore if sent back into the freshman pool would have risen from the 50th to the 57th percentile). After four years, the seniors had a 0.5 standard deviation improvement over the freshman, compared to 1 standard deviation in the 1980s.
(See also Higher Education?)
Readers: Do you think employers could be talked down from H-1B and convinced to hire American 18-year-olds as apprentices who’d spend their evenings taking in-person or online classes in advanced nerdism?
Separately, I’d love to know how COBOL-coding nerds and beautiful fashion models got lumped together:
“The H-1B program applies to employers seeking to hire nonimmigrant aliens as workers in specialty occupations or as fashion models of distinguished merit and ability“