Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates

Introduction: In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040.

Materials and methods: Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020.

Results: In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes.

Conclusion: Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.