NFL Conference Championships – Odds, betting picks, and promos
The race to the Super Bowl is down to four teams with the Conference Championships on the line on each side of the bracket this weekend.
Read more to find the best picks for the two upcoming matchups, that will determine who will end up in the Superbowl.
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⚡ Quick NFL picks for Conference Championships
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Chiefs +3.5 | (-108) at BetRivers
- Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | (+140) at DraftKings
- Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: Under 51 points | (-110) at BetMGM
Conference Championships preview
The Detroit Lions will face off with the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC crown while the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will look to secure the AFC title. The Ravens and 49ers came off their bye weeks and handled business last week.
Baltimore cruised to a 34-10 victory over the Houston Texans while it took a back-breaking interception from Jordan Love for the Packers to suffer their 24-21 loss at the hands of San Francisco.
The Detroit Lions secured their first conference title appearance since 1991 by defeating Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers 31-23. Lastly, in the finale of the Divisional Round, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Buffalo Bills 27-24 making this the third time the Chiefs have gotten the upper hand in the Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen era.
Despite being in the driver’s seat for most of the matchup and having a few lucky breaks go their way, Buffalo suffered a 27-24 loss which was ultimately stamped by the 44-yard missed field goal by Tyler Bass.
While putting the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands with the game tied and 1:47 remaining would be far from the ideal situation anyway, this was another incredibly frustrating loss for Buffalo at the hands of Kansas City.
They will have all offseason to reflect and answer some difficult questions regarding the future of the team, but the final four remaining teams still have plenty at stake.
Here is a look at some predictions for the upcoming matchups and the best possible value on the betting markets as the season inches closer to its Super Bowl conclusion.
⭐ Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Chiefs +3.5 | (-108) at BetRivers
Despite much of the general public being ready to celebrate the Chiefs’ downfall, the team is not dead yet. The defending champions pulled off the outright upset against the Bills last week and now find themselves just one game away from the Super Bowl for the sixth consecutive season.
While this is a different identity than we have been accustomed to seeing with the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes continues to look like the best quarterback in football and this is the most dynamic defensive unit he has ever had on the other side of the ball. During the regular season, they allowed just 17.4 points per game which is the second-best rate in the league.
This has carried into the postseason with the Chiefs holding the Dolphins to just 7 points in the opening round and locking down the Bills to just 7 points in the second half last week. Travis Kelce also returned to form, with Taylor Swift watching on from the box, and tallied two touchdowns which marked the first time he touched the paydirt since Week 11.
Even after going through more struggles than usual this season, the Chiefs look to have returned to form and have shaped up to be the perennial Super Bowl threat we are accustomed to.
On the other side of things, the Baltimore Ravens are looking to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013. The pressure is mounting on Lamar Jackson who has (unfairly) been labeled as a guy whose game does not translate in the postseason.
After the bye week to start the playoffs, Jackson threw for 152 yards and a pair of touchdowns while adding 100 yards and two touchdowns with his legs as well in the victory over Houston. Baltimore broke the game open in the second half outsourcing the Texans 20-0 and ultimately cruised to a 34-10 victory.
It will be a different story going against the defending champions. Baltimore also has an impressive defense which held opponents to just 16.5 points per game- the best rate in the NFL. They also led the league in net yards per pass attempt allowed and were tied for the most turnovers forced.
The Ravens have about as impressive of a resume that they could produce during the regular season which includes blowing out the Dolphins, producing a convincing win over the NFC’s best 49ers, and the Texans were the hottest team in football before they knocked them out last week.
These are the best two teams in the AFC with MVP-caliber quarterbacks, elite coaching, and stout defenses. This feels like a near toss-up and with the significant edge in experience and a 3.5-point spread working in favor of Baltimore, the Chiefs possess too much value to pass up.
There is significantly more pressure on the Ravens’ shoulders as they are looking to get past the playoff hurdles that have continually tripped them up. Buckle up for what should be a terrific football game that may very well come down to a last-second score. With a spread above the field goal margin and the experience in favor of the defending champions, take the Chiefs to cover the number.
They have finally looked like themselves over the past few weeks and there is a legitimate chance they are just peaking at the right time. Kansas City fought through adversity and scrapped to a victory against Buffalo last week. They will have the opportunity to do the exact same thing in this matchup and there is an argument to be made that Buffalo was tougher from a matchup standpoint.
While the +163 value on the moneyline is a fair bet, getting the 3.5-point cushion on the spread is too much to pass up on as you can get a wager on this at -108 odds on BetRivers.
🏈 Bet on Chiefs +3.5 at -108 with BetRivers 🏈
⭐ Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns | (+140) at DraftKings
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are viewed in a similar light as elite regular-season talents whose flaws become difficult to hide in the playoffs. Allen was unable to lead the Bills to a win in what may have been his best postseason chance against the Chiefs. Jackson may have even more pressure on him with his 2-3 career playoff record a sticking point.
The 2019 NFL MVP threw for two touchdowns in his first career playoff game and last week but had just one total TD through the air and four interceptions across the three games in between. He has continually fought the reputation of not having a good enough arm even with the ridiculous stats that he has produced.
The Chiefs defense will make life difficult for Jackson. During the regular season, they held teams to the 3rd-fewest 1st downs, 4th-fewest passing yards, 4th-fewest passing touchdowns, 3rd-fewest net yards per pass attempt, and the second-best score percentage overall.
While this may not be his best statistical season from a passing perspective, it feels as if Jackson has taken strides forward as a decision-maker. The former Louisville product is likely to be crowned MVP once the playoff concludes because of the 3678 yards and 24 touchdowns he threw for.
Jackson has the best weapons that he has ever had surrounded him and this is further strengthened by Mark Andrews likely making his return to the field for this game. Andrews led the Ravens in receiving touchdowns this year tallying six in the 10 games that he played this year. His presence changes the outlook for the Ravens in the red zone and expect Jackson to be targeting him often.
If the Ravens are to have any chance in this game, it will take an impressive performance from Lamar Jackson. As great as both defenses are, each quarterback is so dynamic that this game will open up.
Baltimore has a 63.01% touchdown success rate in the red zone this season and produced seven points in four of their five trips last week. Expect the Chiefs to force Jackson to beat them with his arm and have significant defensive attention paid to the Ravens star as a runner. This is the biggest game of Jackson’s professional career and likely his best chance at winning a championship to this point.
Expect him to deliver on the largest stage and toss two touchdowns to keep the Ravens in the game. You can wager on this at +140 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
🏈 Bet on Lamar Jackson to make over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +140 with DraftKings 🏈
⭐ Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: Under 51 points | (-110) at BetMGM
There seems to be little doubt that the neutral fan is rooting for the Detroit Lions out of the remaining playoff teams. They snapped their 31-year drought without a playoff victory and after sneaking by the Rams in the opening playoff matchup they most recently secured a 31-23 victory over the Buccaneers.
Jared Goff has been playing phenomenal football, but it will be a whole different level against the 49ers. San Francisco looked like the league’s most dangerous team for most of the season although their regular-season loss to the Ravens brought this to question.
They ranked 3rd in the NFL in both points scored and points allowed this season. With a dominant defensive line and plenty of diverse ways to score on the offensive side of the ball, they have looked like a Super Bowl contender all year.
As great as the 49ers have been, Brock Purdy still has questions regarding whether he can be a championship quarterback in the way the roster demands him to be.
He completed just 59.0% of his passes against the Packers last week for just one touchdown, leading the 49ers to just 24 points. While he ultimately stepped up during the biggest moment of the game, Purdy missed the mark on a number of opportunities throughout the game.
There were stretches of the matchup in which Jordan Love looked the more polished quarterback which was surprising to see from both perspectives.
On the other side of things, playing outdoors and in unfriendly territory is going to be a legitimate factor for the Lions’ production. Detroit’s offense averaged just 17.8 points over its five games in open-air stadiums this season compared to the 30.75 they averaged in domes.
Their yards per play also slipped from 5.9 indoors to 5.05 yards outdoors. While the Lions scored at a league-best 74.36% rate in the red zone at home, this number slipped to just 50% when playing outdoors.
Jared Goff is a primary reason for this as he saw his completion rate drop from 70.2% to 63.59%, his yards per attempt drop from 8.09 to 6.47, and his passer rating sink from 104.0 to 87.9 when playing outside in the elements. This is not even factoring in that the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league regardless of the conditions.
Between the concerns of playing outdoors, the potential for Brock Purdy to underperform, and the overall strength of the San Francisco defense- expect this game to remain low-scoring.
The 51-point margin is too high for this matchup and there also is plenty of value in taking the Lions team under at 21.5. With a Purdy disaster being more likely than most are giving it credit, let’s roll with the game under of 51 for the sake of this article. You can wager on this at -110 odds on BetMGM.
🏈 Bet on under 51 points at -110 with BetMGM 🏈
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About the author
Sean Barnard
Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.
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