PARIS, January 28. /TASS/. Various "peace plans" for Ukraine, recently highlighted in the media, including some attributed to former US President Donald Trump, suggest the possibility of dividing the country into two parts as a way to prevent the total defeat of the Ukrainian army and to reorganize it for a potential revanche in the future, historian Professor Edouard Husson of Cergy Paris University and founder of the Institut Brennus research association told TASS.
He pointed out that the idea of freezing the conflict along the lines of a "Korean scenario" was initially floated back in 2023 after the failed counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces. Husson believes this scenario was abandoned in favor of attempts to incite protests in Russia, citing war fatigue from the prolonged conflict.
"Clearly, now that the Ukrainian army is on the back foot, Zelensky might seize this opportunity," Husson suggested. He added that Zelensky is desperately seeking any chance to present developments as a victory, "fearing backlash from the most radical supporters of the Kiev regime."
"By partitioning Ukraine, proponents of this strategy aim to prevent the Ukrainian army’s collapse, rebuild it, and resume hostilities once the US and Western industries ramp up production," Husson warned. He believes that Moscow is fully aware of this tactic and will be unlikely to agree, especially if the Ukrainian army relies heavily on US military support.
The expert also addressed a statement attributed to Trump on his Truth Social platform, in which he promised to impose new duties and sanctions on Russian exports if the conflict in Ukraine remained unresolved.
"Trump's message reflects the depth of American policymakers’ misjudgments. In my view, he genuinely believes that Russia is teetering on economic collapse and thus has no option but to negotiate. In reality, Trump may find it extremely challenging to recognize Russia as an equal or to grasp that it has become a leading global military power," Husson said.
Settlement prospects
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had instructed his special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, to resolve the Ukrainian conflict within 100 days. According to the daily, making a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin would be a far greater challenge than Trump had anticipated during his campaign, when he claimed he would end the conflict before taking office.
On January 21, Trump hinted at the possibility of completely halting US arms supplies to Kiev and noted he was ready to meet with the Russian president at any mutually convenient time. At the same time, the new US leader mentioned that tougher sanctions against Russia were on the table if Moscow refused to reach a deal on Ukraine.
On January 20, Putin reaffirmed that Moscow was open to dialogue with the new US administration regarding the Ukrainian conflict. However, he emphasized that the primary objective should be addressing the root causes of the crisis. He also noted Russia's awareness of Trump’s statements and those of his team expressing a desire to restore contacts and the need to avoid a third world war.