How our projection model works: Rather than being a simulator of future games, it calculates projections by looking at each team’s quarterback and EVE (efficiency vs. expected) performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations. The model analyzes every matchup of the regular season and gives each team a predicted win percentage across its games. For preseason rankings, it incorporates how quarterback and coaching changes might impact those teams.
NOTE: Our 2024 NFL predictions are updated after every scoring play throughout the season and playoffs. The regular season simulations include projected ties, so expected win-loss records may not add up to exactly 17 games for all teams.