There’s never been a wild-card team quite like the Minnesota Vikings. With their 14-3 record, they’re the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs as a wild card despite winning at least 14 games. That’s the type of challenge the Los Angeles Rams are facing when they host the Vikings on Monday Night Football in the first round of the playoffs, but they’re not afraid.
And quite frankly, they shouldn’t be.
Despite Minnesota’s impressive record and top-10 offense (and defense), the Rams have a good chance to upset the Vikings for the second time this season. Sure, they’re the underdogs at home as the higher seed, but the Rams are more than capable of beating Kevin O’Connell, Sam Darnold and the Vikings.
Here are five reasons the Rams should feel confident heading into their playoff matchup with Minnesota.
Rams already beat Vikings once
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There are two teams in the NFL that have beaten the Vikings this season: the Lions and Rams. That’s it. Detroit beat Minnesota in Weeks 7 and 18, and the Rams beat them in Week 8.
It has to give them confidence knowing they already beat Minnesota once this season, and it’s not as if the Vikings were much different than they are now. That game was one of the Rams’ best performances of the year, racking up 386 yards and holding Minnesota to just 276 total yards, the Vikings’ fifth-lowest output of the season.
If the Rams got the job done once before, there’s no reason to believe they can’t do it again on Monday night. With Puka Nacua healthier than he was in Week 8 – his first game back from a knee injury – Los Angeles should be even better than it was in Round 1.
Sam Darnold was awful on Sunday
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Darnold has had a tremendous season with the Vikings, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns in his first year in Minnesota. But if you watched him in Sunday’s finale against the Lions, you’d think he was a backup filling in for the starter.
In the Vikings’ 31-9 loss to Detroit, Darnold set season-lows in completion rate (43.9%), passing yards (166) and yards per attempt (4.0). It was his worst performance of the season, which is not how the Vikings wanted their quarterback to look heading into the playoffs.
The Rams shouldn’t expect Darnold to play so poorly again on Monday night, but they can look at the tape of what Detroit did to stymie Minnesota’s offense and use that to keep the Vikings in check.
Matthew Stafford is great against the blitz
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The name of the game for Minnesota’s defense is blitz, blitz, and blitz some more. According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings have blitzed 36.1% of the time this season, far and away the highest rate in the NFL; the Bucs are second with a 31.4% blitz rate.
When these teams met in Week 8, Stafford picked apart the Vikings defense when he was blitzed. He had 13 dropbacks against the pass, completing 10 of 13 passes for 128 yards with no sacks taken and only four pressures allowed by the Rams O-line, per Pro Football Focus. One of his three incompletions was a drop, too.
This season, Stafford has a 103.2 passer rating against the blitz, which ranks eighth among all quarterbacks. He’s completed 66.5% of his passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions when blitzed this year.
The Rams know Brian Flores is going to blitz early and often, and with how well Stafford has performed against extra rushers, they should feel confident in their veteran quarterback.
Vikings’ run defense is trending down
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In the first 11 games of the season, the Vikings allowed more than 86 yards rushing just three times. Their defensive rush EPA of -0.296 was the best of any team in the NFL through Week 12, showing just how dominant the unit was against the run for most of the season.
Since Week 13, the Vikings have come back down to earth as a run defense, ranking 17th in rush EPA (-0.081) with six games where their opponent rushed for at least 100 yards. The Cardinals, Falcons and Lions all rushed for at least 150 yards against the Vikings in the last seven weeks, including a dominant effort from Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday night when he rushed for 139 yards and three touchdowns; Craig Reynolds added 39 yards on eight carries.
Minnesota had no answer for Gibbs and while he’s a vastly different running back than Kyren Williams, Sean McVay should feel confident that his workhorse will have success against the Vikings, too.
In Week 8, Williams rushed for 97 yards on 23 carries in the Rams’ win over Minnesota.
Minnesota is below average in red zone
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There haven’t been many red zone performances in the NFL this season worse than what the Vikings put on display Sunday night. They went 0-for-4 in the red zone against the Lions, settling for two short field goals and failing on fourth down twice from inside Detroit’s 5-yard line.
They also allowed touchdowns on all three of the Lions’ red zone trips, playing poorly on both sides of the ball inside the 20-yard lines. That dreadful outing against Detroit sank the Vikings to 19th in red zone offense and 18th in red zone defense this season. They’ve scored touchdowns just 55.7% of the time and allowed touchdowns on 59.2% of opponents drives that reach the red zone.
The Rams terrible as a red zone offense, ranking 25th in the league this year, but they’re the fifth-best defense inside the 20, allowing touchdowns only 50% of the time. Games often come down to red zone execution so if the Rams can win the battle inside the 20s, they can beat the Vikings on the scoreboard.
