Alternate borders of Post-Soviet Central Asia

[EmperorBuaya]

Like the title says, what could possible be the alternate borders of Post-Soviet Central Asia for better or worse?

The whole borders set-up is arranged by Stalin in his divide and rule policies of the Soviet Union, basing on their nationalities/ethnicity of these mostly nomadic people.

Contemporary map of Central Asia in OTL ​

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Kazakhstan was a third Russian-Ukrainian following the collapse of the USSR. I could Kazakhstan being reabsorbed by Russia.

Eastern Tajikistan could perhaps be an Islamic Emirate separate from West Tajikistan - that's where the Islamists had power OTL during the Civil War.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Make Karakalpakstan separate from Uzbekistan.

 

[Leander]

There are significant Tadjik minorities in several regions of Uzbekistan, most notably in Surxondaryo, but i dont know if this is significant enough to include that area in a larger Tadjikistan.
Independant Karakalpakstan is is definitely an option.

 

[Minchandre]

There are significant Tadjik minorities in several regions of Uzbekistan, most notably in Surxondaryo, but i dont know if this is significant enough to include that area in a larger Tadjikistan.
Independant Karakalpakstan is is definitely an option.

There's also 13% Uzbeks in Tajikistan, though I'm not sure how concentrated they are.

 

[Aber]

Have fun



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Central_Asia

 

[Minchandre]

Have fun


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Central_Asia

Honestly, that doesn't look too bad. The ethnic groups are mostly contiguous or nearly so, with relatively few "mixed" areas (though I'm sure that they're around the highest density and urban places). Together with large areas of very low density, making states that are mostly ethnically uniform shouldn't be too hard.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Maybe if Iran defeats Iraq in the 80's war between both countries and an islamist "sister republic" is estabilished in Iraq, we could see Iran getting bolder in its support for islamist groups in Central Asia? The Soviet fear of an Iranian expansion of influence into the old Central Asian republics could become true in this scenario, which will have butterflies over regional borders.

 

[Remitonov]

Honestly, that doesn't look too bad. The ethnic groups are mostly contiguous or nearly so, with relatively few "mixed" areas (though I'm sure that they're around the highest density and urban places). Together with large areas of very low density, making states that are mostly ethnically uniform shouldn't be too hard.

That's just half of the story though. It's not all flat land up there. There are a lot of inhospitable areas which makes travel difficult. For example, the Fenghara valley runs across that knot-shaped border between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but the main transport routes and passes are given to Uzbekistan entirely, essentially restricting land access for its neighbours to travel between their own cities. This left a lot of bitterness on the part of the Tajiks and Kyrgyz, especially for the former, since the borders cut out key Tajik enclaves in cities like Samarkand.

​

So yea... it's not that simple.

 

[Bobbbcat2]

What about Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan staying one republic? In the early days of the USSR they were adminstered as one republic, and I don't think they're incredibly different culturally.

 

[Leander]

This left a lot of bitterness on the part of the Tajiks and Kyrgyz, especially for the former, since the borders cut out key Tajik enclaves in cities like Samarkand.

Samarkand indeed has a Tadjik majority, so it would be a prime candidate for inclusion into that country, but according to Abers map the area sourounding it has a mainly Uzbek population.
I think in the end its going to be difficult to draw totally "fair" alternate borders.