US sanctions extremist elements in Israel Mon, 29th Apr 2024 Article tags ForecastingPoliticsAmericasIsraelMiddle East and AfricaPalestineUnited StatesCountry Analysis What’s happened?On April 19th the US government imposed sanctions on a leading Israeli right‑wing extremist and two entities accused of raising funds for the handful of West Bank settlers who had already been sanctioned by US authorities earlier in the year. However, later in the month the US$14.1bn in supplementary US military funding to Israel, which were announced in October 2023 as part of a broader foreign aid package, finally received approval from Congress and was passed into law by US president, Joe Biden. The US continues to balance ongoing security support for Israel with increasingly forthright action against groups with extremist links.Why does it matter?The latest sanctions announcement is significant in targeting Ben‑Zion Gopstein, a well‑known right‑wing extremist who is close to the national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir. The move highlights growing frustration with the conduct of the religious‑right coalition government of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Nevertheless, US support during the recent Iranian assault on Israel and the approval of additional military support (in addition to the US$3.8bn disbursed by the US to Israel annually) affirm our view that the US remains Israel’s main security guarantor. The latest announcement also sanctions two entities that had sought to get around the earlier sanctions with crowd-funding drives to help those who were already targeted. If the US proceeds with reported plans to also sanction the Israel Defence Forces’ Netzah Yehuda Battalion, it will mark the first time that an Israeli government entity has been targeted for action. The Battalion, whose recruits include many extremist settlers, has been accused of excessive violence in the performance of its duties when it was stationed in the West Bank.The sanction targets are not connected with the Gaza war but to violence and other human rights violations against West Bank Palestinians. The sanctions reflect concerns that the Israeli government is not enforcing the law in the West Bank and that its most extreme ministers, principally Mr Ben Gvir and finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich (who is also responsible for civil affairs in the West Bank), encourage the phenomenon. Vigilante activity by settlers has risen sharply under the current government, especially since the start of the Gaza war.The EU and some European governments have also imposed sanctions on extremist settlers, but the US action is far more significant. It not only bars US citizens from having contact with sanctioned individuals and organisations but also from using US dollars or US technology. Israeli banks, which are especially sensitive to running afoul of US sanctions, have blocked sanctions targets from access to the country’s financial system.What next?The number of sanctions targets is too small to cause Israel economic damage. The real risk for Israel is that more individuals and organisations could be sanctioned, including senior officials. Beholden to his far‑right coalition partners, however, Mr Netanyahu is unlikely to take meaningful steps to crack down on lawlessness in the West Bank, particularly as US military funding is now assured.The analysis and forecasts featured in this article can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks. Mon, 29th Apr 2024 Article tags ForecastingPoliticsAmericasIsraelMiddle East and AfricaPalestineUnited StatesCountry Analysis