Precipitation in southwestern North America has exhibited significant natural variability over the past few thousand years. This variability has been attributed to sea surface temperature regimes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to the attendant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In particular, decadal variability in the North Pacific has influenced precipitation in this region during the twentieth century, but links to earlier droughts and pluvials are unclear. Here we assess these links using δ 18 O data from a speleothem from southern California that spans AD 854-2007. We show that variations in the oxygen isotopes of the speleothem correlate to sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension region of the North Pacific, which affect the atmospheric trajectory and isotopic composition of moisture reaching the study site. Interpreting our speleothem data as a record of sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension, we find a strong 22-year periodicity, suggesting a persistent solar influence on North Pacific decadal variability. A comparison with tree-ring records of precipitation during the past millennium shows that some droughts occurred during periods of warmth in the Kuroshio Extension, similar to the instrumental record. However, other droughts did not and instead must have been influenced by other factors. Finally, we find a significant increase in sea surface temperature variability over the past 150 years, which may reflect an influence of greenhouse gas concentrations on variability in the North Pacific.

AbstractIn 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure, and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.

We related measurements of annual burned area in the southwest United States during 1984–2013 to records of climate variability. Within forests, annual burned area correlated at least as strongly with spring–summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as with 14 other drought-related metrics, including more complex metrics that explicitly represent fuel moisture. Particularly strong correlations with VPD arise partly because this term dictates the atmospheric moisture demand. Additionally, VPD responds to moisture supply, which is difficult to measure and model regionally due to complex micrometeorology, land cover and terrain. Thus, VPD appears to be a simple and holistic indicator of regional water balance. Coupled with the well-known positive influence of prior-year cold season precipitation on fuel availability and connectivity, VPD may be utilised for burned area forecasts and also to infer future trends, though these are subject to other complicating factors such as land cover change and management. Assuming an aggressive greenhouse gas emissions scenario, climate models predict mean spring–summer VPD will exceed the highest recorded values in the southwest in nearly 40% of years by the middle of this century. These results forewarn of continued increases in burned forest area in the southwest United States, and likely elsewhere, when fuels are not limiting.

Current climate models disagree on how much carbon dioxide land ecosystems take up for photosynthesis. Tracking the stronger carbonyl sulfide signal could help.

The isotopic composition of water vapour provides integrated perspectives on the hydrological histories of air masses and has been widely used for tracing physical processes in hydrological and climatic studies. Over the last two decades, the infrared laser spectroscopy technique has been used to measure the isotopic composition of water vapour near the Earths surface. Here, we have assembled a global database of high temporal resolution stable water vapour isotope ratios (δ18O and δD) observed using this measurement technique. As of March 2018, the database includes data collected at 35 sites in 15 Köppen climate zones from the years 2004 to 2017. The key variables in each dataset are hourly values of δ18O and δD in atmospheric water vapour. To support interpretation of the isotopologue data, synchronized time series of standard meteorological variables from in situ observations and ERA5 reanalyses are also provided. This database is intended to serve as a centralized platform allowing researchers to share their vapour isotope datasets, thus facilitating investigations that transcend disciplinary and geographic boundaries.

For the past decade, observations of carbonyl sulfide (OCS or COS) have been investigated as a proxy for carbon uptake by plants. OCS is destroyed by enzymes that interact with CO2 during photosynthesis, namely carbonic anhydrase (CA) and RuBisCO, where CA is the more important one. The majority of sources of OCS to the atmosphere are geographically separated from this large plant sink, whereas the sources and sinks of CO2 are co-located in ecosystems. The drawdown of OCS can therefore be related to the uptake of CO2 without the added complication of co-located emissions comparable in magnitude. Here we review the state of our understanding of the global OCS cycle and its applications to ecosystem carbon cycle science. OCS uptake is correlated well to plant carbon uptake, especially at the regional scale. OCS can be used in conjunction with other independent measures of ecosystem function, like solar-induced fluorescence and carbon and water isotope studies. More work needs to be done to generate global coverage for OCS observations and to link this powerful atmospheric tracer to systems where fundamental questions concerning the carbon and water cycle remain.

Abstract. For the past decade, observations of carbonyl sulfide (OCS or COS) have been investigated as a proxy for carbon uptake by plants. OCS is destroyed by enzymes that interact with CO2 during photosynthesis, namely carbonic anhydrase (CA) and RuBisCO, where CA is the more important. The majority of sources of OCS to the atmosphere are geographically separated from this large plant sink, whereas the sources and sinks of CO2 are co-located in ecosystems. The drawdown of OCS can therefore be related to the uptake of CO2 without the added complication of co-located emissions comparable in magnitude. Here we review the state of our understanding of the global OCS cycle and its applications to ecosystem carbon cycle science. OCS uptake is correlated well to plant carbon uptake, especially at the regional scale. OCS can be used in conjunction with other independent measures of ecosystem function, like solar-induced fluorescence and carbon and water isotope studies. More work needs to be done to generate global coverage for OCS observations and to link this powerful atmospheric tracer to systems where fundamental questions concerning the carbon and water cycle remain.