Exacerbations are a hallmark of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence suggests the presence of substantial between-individual variability (heterogeneity) in exacerbation rates. The question of whether individuals vary in their tendency towards experiencing severe (versus mild) exacerbations, or whether there is an association between exacerbation rate and severity, has not yet been studied. We used data from the MACRO Study, a 1-year randomized trial of the use of azithromycin for prevention of COPD exacerbations (United States and Canada, 2006-2010; n = 1,107, mean age = 65.2 years, 59.1% male). A parametric frailty model was combined with a logistic regression model, with bivariate random effects capturing heterogeneity in rate and severity. The average rate of exacerbation was 1.53 episodes/year, with 95% of subjects having a model-estimated rate of 0.47-4.22 episodes/year. The overall ratio of severe exacerbations to total exacerbations was 0.22, with 95% of subjects having a model-estimated ratio of 0.04-0.60. We did not confirm an association between exacerbation rate and severity (P = 0.099). A unified model, implemented in standard software, could estimate joint heterogeneity in COPD exacerbation rate and severity and can have applications in similar contexts where inference on event time and intensity is considered. We provide SAS code (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, North Carolina) and a simulated data set to facilitate further uses of this method.

Rationale: The chronotropic index quantifies the proportion of the expected heart rate increase that is attained during exercise. The relationship between the chronotropic index and acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) has not been evaluated. Objectives: To determine whether a higher chronotropic index during a 6-minute walk (CI-6MW) is associated with lower risk of AECOPD and whether the CI-6MW is a marker of susceptibility to adverse effects of metoprolol in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: We analyzed data from the BLOCK COPD (Beta-Blockers for the Prevention of AECOPDs) trial. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the relationship between the CI-6MW and the time to AECOPDs. We also tested for interactions between study group assignment (metoprolol vs. placebo) and the CI-6MW on the time to AECOPDs. Results: Four hundred seventy-seven participants with exacerbation-prone COPD (mean forced expiratory volume in 1 second, 41% of predicted) were included in this analysis. A higher CI-6MW was independently associated with a decreased risk of AECOPDs of any severity (adjusted hazard ratio per 0.1 increase in CI-6MW of 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.96) but was not independently associated with AECOPDs requiring hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.05). There was a significant interaction by treatment assignment, and in a stratified analysis, the protective effects of a higher CI-6MW on AECOPDs were negated by metoprolol use. Conclusions: A higher CI-6MW is associated with a decreased risk of AECOPDs and may be an indicator of susceptibility to the adverse effects of metoprolol.

Rationale

Though matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are critical in the pathogenesis of COPD, their utility as a disease biomarker remains uncertain. This study aimed to determine whether bronchoalveolar lavage (BALF) or plasma MMP measurements correlated with disease severity or functional decline in emphysema.

Methods

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and luminex assays measured MMP-1, -9, -12 and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 in the BALF and plasma of non-smokers, smokers with normal lung function and moderate-to-severe emphysema subjects. In the cohort of 101 emphysema subjects correlative analyses were done to determine if MMP or TIMP-1 levels were associated with key disease parameters or change in lung function over an 18-month time period.

Main results

Compared to non-smoking controls, MMP and TIMP-1 BALF levels were significantly elevated in the emphysema cohort. Though MMP-1 was elevated in both the normal smoker and emphysema groups, collagenase activity was only increased in the emphysema subjects. In contrast to BALF, plasma MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were actually decreased in the emphysema cohort compared to the control groups. Both in the BALF and plasma, MMP and TIMP-1 measurements in the emphysema subjects did not correlate with important disease parameters and were not predictive of subsequent functional decline.

Conclusions

MMPs are altered in the BALF and plasma of emphysema; however, the changes in MMPs correlate poorly with parameters of disease intensity or progression. Though MMPs are pivotal in the pathogenesis of COPD, these findings suggest that measuring MMPs will have limited utility as a prognostic marker in this disease.

Introduction

Autonomic dysfunction is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and worse autonomic function may be a marker of risk for acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). Heart rate variability (HRV) is a measure of autonomic function. Our objective was to test whether lower (worse) HRV is a risk factor for AECOPD.

Methods

We measured standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN) and root mean square of successive RR interval differences (RMSSD) on 10-second electrocardiograms (ECGs) performed at screening and day 42 in participants in the Beta Blockers for the Prevention of Acute Exacerbations of COPD trial ( BLOCK-COPD), a placebo-controlled trial of metoprolol for prevention of AECOPD. We used Cox-proportional hazards models to test if these HRV measures were associated with risk of any AECOPD, and separately, hospitalized AECOPD. We tested associations using baseline HRV measures and incorporating HRV measures from day 42 as a time-varying covariate. We also tested for interactions with metoprolol assignment.

Results

Of 532 trial participants, 529 (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV₁ ]41 ± 16.3 % predicted) were included in this analysis. We did not find a significant association between HRV measures and risk of AECOPD when all participants were analyzed together. There was a significant interaction between RMSSD and assignment to metoprolol on time to first hospitalized AECOPD; in the placebo group greater RMSSD was associated with a lower risk of hospitalized AECOPD (adjusted hazard ratio0.71, 95% confidence interval: 0.52 to 0.96, per 10 ms increase) but there was no association in the metoprolol group.

Conclusions

Autonomic dysfunction as measured by HRV may be a risk factor for AECOPD. Future studies should analyze longer HRV recordings and their performance in broader samples of people with COPD, including those on beta-blockers.

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an age-related condition that has been associated with early telomere attrition; the clinical implications of telomere shortening in COPD are not well known. In this study we aimed to determine the relationship of the epigenetic regulation of telomeric length in peripheral blood with the risk of exacerbations and hospitalization in patients with COPD.

Methods

Blood DNA methylation profiles were obtained from 292 patients with COPD enrolled in the placebo arm of the Macrolide Azithromycin to Prevent Rapid Worsening of Symptoms Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (MACRO) Study and who were followed for 1-year. We calculated telomere length based on DNA methylation markers (DNAmTL) and related this biomarker to the risk of exacerbation and hospitalization and health status (St. George Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ]) score over time using a Cox proportional hazards model. We also used linear models to investigate the associations of DNAmTL with the rates of exacerbation and hospitalization (adjusted for chronological age, lung function, race, sex, smoking, body mass index and cell composition).

Results

Participants with short DNAmTL demonstrated increased risk of exacerbation (P = 0.02) and hospitalization (P = 0.03) compared to those with longer DNAmTL. DNAmTL age acceleration was associated with higher rates of exacerbation (P = 1.35 × 10^-04) and hospitalization (P = 5.21 × 10^-03) and poor health status (lower SGRQ scores) independent of chronological age (P = 0.03).

Conclusion

Telomeric age based on blood DNA methylation is associated with COPD exacerbation and hospitalization and thus a promising biomarker for poor outcomes in COPD.

Background

Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection is associated with reduced lung function and systemic inflammation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Azithromycin (AZ) is active against HP and reduces the risk of COPD exacerbation. We determined whether HP infection status modifies the effects of AZ in COPD patients.

Methods

Plasma samples from 1018 subjects with COPD who participated in the Macrolide Azithromycin (MACRO) in COPD Study were used to determine the HP infection status at baseline and 12 months of follow-up using a serologic assay. Based on HP infection status and randomization to either AZ or placebo (PL), the subjects were divided into 4 groups: HP+/AZ, HP-/AZ, HP+/PL, and HP-/PL. Time to first exacerbation was compared across the 4 groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model. The rates of exacerbation were compared using both the Kruskal-Wallis test and negative binomial analysis. Blood biomarkers at enrolment and at follow-up visits 3, 12, and 13 (1 month after treatment was stopped) months were measured.

Results

One hundred eighty one (17.8%) patients were seropositive to HP. Non-Caucasian participants were nearly three times more likely to be HP seropositive than Caucasian participants (37.4% vs 13.6%; p < 0.001). The median time to first exacerbation was significantly different across the four groups (p = 0.001) with the longest time in the HP+/AZ group (11.2 months, 95% CI; 8.4-12.5+) followed by the HP-/AZ group (8.0 months, 95% CI; 6.7-9.7). Hazard ratio (HR) for exacerbations was lowest in the HP+/AZ group after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, ethnicity, history of peptic ulcer, dyspnea, previous hospital admission, GOLD grade of severity, and forced vital capacity (HR, 0.612; 95% CI, 0.442-0.846 vs HR, 0.789; 95% CI, 0.663-0.938 in the HP-/AZ group). Circulating levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-75 were reduced only in the HP+/AZ group after 3 months of AZ treatment (-0.87 ± 0.31 μg/L; p = 0.002); levels returned to baseline after discontinuing AZ.

Conclusions

AZ is effective in preventing COPD exacerbations in patients with HP seropositivity, possibly by modulating TNF pathways related to HP infection.

Background

Retrospective studies have shown that statins decrease the rate and severity of exacerbations, the rate of hospitalization, and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We prospectively studied the efficacy of simvastatin in preventing exacerbations in a large, multicenter, randomized trial.

Methods

We designed the Prospective Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Simvastatin in the Prevention of COPD Exacerbations (STATCOPE) as a randomized, controlled trial of simvastatin (at a daily dose of 40 mg) versus placebo, with annual exacerbation rates as the primary outcome. Patients were eligible if they were 40 to 80 years of age, had COPD (defined by a forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] of less than 80% and a ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity of less than 70%), and had a smoking history of 10 or more pack-years, were receiving supplemental oxygen or treatment with glucocorticoids or antibiotic agents, or had had an emergency department visit or hospitalization for COPD within the past year. Patients with diabetes or cardiovascular disease and those who were taking statins or who required statins on the basis of Adult Treatment Panel III criteria were excluded. Participants were treated from 12 to 36 months at 45 centers.

Results

A total of 885 participants with COPD were enrolled for approximately 641 days; 44% of the patients were women. The patients had a mean (±SD) age of 62.2±8.4 years, an FEV1 that was 41.6±17.7% of the predicted value, and a smoking history of 50.6±27.4 pack-years. At the time of study closeout, the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were lower in the simvastatin-treated patients than in those who received placebo. The mean number of exacerbations per person-year was similar in the simvastatin and placebo groups: 1.36±1.61 exacerbations and 1.39±1.73 exacerbations, respectively (P=0.54). The median number of days to the first exacerbation was also similar: 223 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 195 to 275) and 231 days (95% CI, 193 to 303), respectively (P=0.34). The number of nonfatal serious adverse events per person-year was similar, as well: 0.63 events with simvastatin and 0.62 events with placebo. There were 30 deaths in the placebo group and 28 in the simvastatin group (P=0.89).

Conclusions

Simvastatin at a daily dose of 40 mg did not affect exacerbation rates or the time to a first exacerbation in patients with COPD who were at high risk for exacerbations. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; STATCOPE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01061671.).

Background

The literature is scarce regarding the prevalence and clinical impact of IgG subclass deficiency in COPD. We investigated the prevalence of IgG subclass deficiencies and their association with exacerbations and hospitalizations using subjects from two COPD cohorts.

Methods

We measured IgG subclass levels using immunonephelometry in serum samples from participants enrolled in two previous COPD trials: Macrolide Azithromycin for Prevention of Exacerbations of COPD (MACRO; n = 976) and Simvastatin for the Prevention of Exacerbations in Moderate-to-Severe COPD (STATCOPE; n = 653). All samples were collected from clinically stable participants upon entry into both studies. IgG subclass deficiency was diagnosed when IgG subclass levels were below their respective lower limit of normal: IgG1 < 2.8 g/L; IgG2 < 1.15 g/L; IgG3 < 0.24 g/L; and IgG4 < 0.052 g/L. To investigate the impact of IgG subclass levels on time to first exacerbation or hospitalization, we log-transformed IgG levels and performed Cox regression models, with adjustments for confounders.

Results

One or more IgG subclass deficiencies were found in 173 (17.7%) and 133 (20.4%) participants in MACRO and STATCOPE, respectively. Lower IgG1 or IgG2 levels resulted in increased risk of exacerbations with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 1.30 (95% CI, 1.10-1.54, p < 0.01) and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05-1.35, p < 0.01), respectively in the MACRO study, with STATCOPE yielding similar results. Reduced IgG1 or IgG2 levels were also associated with increased risk of hospitalizations: the adjusted HR for IgG1 and IgG2 was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.15-2.02, p < 0.01) and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.08-1.64, p < 0.01), respectively for the MACRO study; in STATCOPE, only IgG2 was an independent predictor of hospitalization. In our multivariate Cox models, IgG3 and IgG4 levels did not result in significant associations for both outcomes in either MACRO or STATCOPE cohorts.

Conclusions

Approximately 1 in 5 COPD patients had one or more IgG subclass deficiencies. Reduced IgG subclass levels were independent risk factors for both COPD exacerbations (IgG1 and IgG2) and hospitalizations (IgG2) in two COPD cohorts.

Trial registration

This study used serum samples from participants of the MACRO ( NCT00325897 ) and STATCOPE ( NCT01061671 ) trials.

Abstract Background The major marker utilized to monitor COPD patients is forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). However, asingle measurement of FEV1 cannot reliably predict subsequent decline. Recent studies indicate that T lymphocytes and eosinophils are important determinants of disease stability in COPD. We therefore measured cytokine levels in the lung lavage fluid and plasma of COPD patients in order to determine if the levels of T cell or eosinophil related cytokines were predictive of the future course of the disease. Methods Baseline lung lavage and plasma samples were collected from COPD subjects with moderately severe airway obstruction and emphysematous changes on chest CT. The study participants were former smokers who had not had a disease exacerbation within the past six months or used steroids within the past two months. Those subjects who demonstrated stable disease over the following six months (ΔFEV1 % predicted = 4.7 ± 7.2; N = 34) were retrospectively compared with study participants who experienced a rapid decline in lung function (ΔFEV1 % predicted = -16.0 ± 6.0; N = 16) during the same time period and with normal controls (N = 11). Plasma and lung lavage cytokines were measured from clinical samples using the Luminex multiplex kit which enabled the simultaneous measurement of several T cell and eosinophil related cytokines. Results and Discussion Stable COPD participants had significantly higher plasma IL-2 levels compared to participants with rapidly progressive COPD (p = 0.04). In contrast, plasma eotaxin-1 levels were significantly lower in stable COPD subjects compared to normal controls (p < 0.03). In addition, lung lavage eotaxin-1 levels were significantly higher in rapidly progressive COPD participants compared to both normal controls (p < 0.02) and stable COPD participants (p < 0.05). Conclusion These findings indicate that IL-2 and eotaxin-1 levels may be important markers of disease stability in advanced emphysema patients. Prospective studies will need to confirm whether measuring IL-2 or eotaxin-1 can identify patients at risk for rapid disease progression.

Background

Lower heart rate (HR) increases during exercise and slower HR recovery (HRR) after exercise are markers of worse autonomic function that may be associated with risk of acute respiratory events (ARE).

Methods

Data from 6-min walk testing (6MWT) in COPDGene were used to calculate the chronotropic index (CI) [(HR immediately post 6MWT - resting HR)/((220 - age) - resting HR)] and HRR at 1 min after 6MWT completion. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to test associations of CI and HRR with rates of any ARE (requiring steroids and/or antibiotics) and severe ARE (requiring emergency department visit or hospitalization), among all participants and in spirometry subgroups (normal, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], and preserved ratio with impaired spirometry).

Results

Among 4,484 participants, mean follow-up time was 4.1 years, and 1,966 had COPD. Among all participants, CI-6MWT was not associated with rate of any ARE [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 0.98 (0.95-1.01)], but higher CI-6MWT was associated with lower rate of severe ARE [0.95 (0.92-0.99)]. Higher HRR was associated with a lower rate of both any ARE [0.97 (0.95-0.99)] and severe ARE [0.95 (0.92-0.98)]. Results were similar in the COPD spirometry subgroup.

Conclusion

Heart rate measures derived from 6MWT tests may have utility in predicting risk of acute respiratory events and COPD exacerbations.