Purpose

Lung cancer remains the most common cause of both cancer mortality and brain metastases (BM). The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of gene alterations and tyrosine kinase inhibition (TKI) on median survival (MS) and cause of death (CoD) in patients with BM from lung adenocarcinoma (L-adeno).

Methods

A multi-institutional retrospective database of patients with L-adeno and newly diagnosed BM between 2006 and 2014 was created. Demographics, gene alterations, treatment, MS, and CoD were analyzed. The treatment patterns and outcomes were compared with those in prior trials.

Results

Of 1521 L-adeno patients, 816 (54%) had known alteration status. The gene alteration rates were 29%, 10%, and 26% for EGFR, ALK, and KRAS, respectively. The time from primary diagnosis to BM for EGFR-/+ was 10/15 months (P=.02) and for ALK-/+ was 10/20 months (P<.01), respectively. The MS for the group overall (n=1521) was 15 months. The MS from first treatment for BM for EGFR and ALK-, EGFR+, ALK+ were 14, 23 (P<.01), and 45 (P<.0001) months, respectively. The MS after BM for EGFR+ patients who did/did not receive TKI before BM was 17/30 months (P<.01), respectively, but the risk of death was not statistically different between TKI-naïve patients who did/did not receive TKI after the diagnosis of BM (EGFR/ALK hazard ratios: 1.06 [P=.84]/1.60 [P=.45], respectively). The CoD was nonneurologic in 82% of patients with known CoD.

Conclusion

EGFR and ALK gene alterations are associated with delayed onset of BM and longer MS relative to patients without these alterations. The CoD was overwhelmingly nonneurologic in patients with known CoD.

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases can avoid WBRT toxicities, but with risk of subsequent distant brain failure (DBF). Sole use of number of metastases to triage patients may be an unrefined method. Data on 1354 patients treated with SRS monotherapy from 2000 to 2013 for new brain metastases was collected across eight academic centers. The cohort was divided into training and validation datasets and a prognostic model was developed for time to DBF. We then evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the model within the validation dataset, and confirmed its performance with an independent contemporary cohort. Number of metastases (≥8, HR 3.53 p = 0.0001), minimum margin dose (HR 1.07 p = 0.0033), and melanoma histology (HR 1.45, p = 0.0187) were associated with DBF. A prognostic index derived from the training dataset exhibited ability to discriminate patients' DBF risk within the validation dataset (c-index = 0.631) and Heller's explained relative risk (HERR) = 0.173 (SE = 0.048). Absolute number of metastases was evaluated for its ability to predict DBF in the derivation and validation datasets, and was inferior to the nomogram. A nomogram high-risk threshold yielding a 2.1-fold increased need for early WBRT was identified. Nomogram values also correlated to number of brain metastases at time of failure (r = 0.38, p < 0.0001). We present a multi-institutionally validated prognostic model and nomogram to predict risk of DBF and guide risk-stratification of patients who are appropriate candidates for radiosurgery versus upfront WBRT.