Objectives

The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of progressive cognitive deterioration in patients with suspected non-Alzheimer disease pathology (SNAP) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Methods

We measured markers of amyloid pathology (CSF β-amyloid 42) and neurodegeneration (hippocampal volume on MRI and cortical metabolism on [(18)F]-fluorodeoxyglucose-PET) in 201 patients with MCI clinically followed for up to 6 years to detect progressive cognitive deterioration. We categorized patients with MCI as A+/A- and N+/N- based on presence/absence of amyloid pathology and neurodegeneration. SNAPs were A-N+ cases.

Results

The proportion of progressors was 11% (8/41), 34% (14/41), 56% (19/34), and 71% (60/85) in A-N-, A+N-, SNAP, and A+N+, respectively; the proportion of APOE ε4 carriers was 29%, 70%, 31%, and 71%, respectively, with the SNAP group featuring a significantly different proportion than both A+N- and A+N+ groups (p ≤ 0.005). Hypometabolism in SNAP patients was comparable to A+N+ patients (p = 0.154), while hippocampal atrophy was more severe in SNAP patients (p = 0.002). Compared with A-N-, SNAP and A+N+ patients had significant risk of progressive cognitive deterioration (hazard ratio = 2.7 and 3.8, p = 0.016 and p < 0.001), while A+N- patients did not (hazard ratio = 1.13, p = 0.771). In A+N- and A+N+ groups, none of the biomarkers predicted time to progression. In the SNAP group, lower time to progression was correlated with greater hypometabolism (r = 0.42, p = 0.073).

Conclusions

Our findings support the notion that patients with SNAP MCI feature a specific risk progression profile.

Objective:

To investigate predictors of missing data in a longitudinal study of Alzheimer disease (AD).

Methods:

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) is a clinic-based, multicenter, longitudinal study with blood, CSF, PET, and MRI scans repeatedly measured in 229 participants with normal cognition (NC), 397 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 193 with mild AD during 2005–2007. We used univariate and multivariable logistic regression models to examine the associations between baseline demographic/clinical features and loss of biomarker follow-ups in ADNI.

Results:

CSF studies tended to recruit and retain patients with MCI with more AD-like features, including lower levels of baseline CSF Aβ₄₂. Depression was the major predictor for MCI dropouts, while family history of AD kept more patients with AD enrolled in PET and MRI studies. Poor cognitive performance was associated with loss of follow-up in most biomarker studies, even among NC participants. The presence of vascular risk factors seemed more critical than cognitive function for predicting dropouts in AD.

Conclusion:

The missing data are not missing completely at random in ADNI and likely conditional on certain features in addition to cognitive function. Missing data predictors vary across biomarkers and even MCI and AD groups do not share the same missing data pattern. Understanding the missing data structure may help in the design of future longitudinal studies and clinical trials in AD.

Background

The goal of this study was to identify a clinical biomarker signature of brain amyloidosis in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative 1 (ADNI1) mild cognitive impairment (MCI) cohort.

Methods

We developed a multimodal biomarker classifier for predicting brain amyloidosis using cognitive, imaging, and peripheral blood protein ADNI1 MCI data. We used CSF β-amyloid 1-42 (Aβ42) ≤ 192 pg/mL as proxy measure for Pittsburgh compound B (PiB)-PET standard uptake value ratio ≥ 1.5. We trained our classifier in the subcohort with CSF Aβ42 but no PiB-PET data and tested its performance in the subcohort with PiB-PET but no CSF Aβ42 data. We also examined the utility of our biomarker signature for predicting disease progression from MCI to Alzheimer dementia.

Results

The CSF training classifier selected Mini-Mental State Examination, Trails B, Auditory Verbal Learning Test delayed recall, education, APOE genotype, interleukin 6 receptor, clusterin, and ApoE protein, and achieved leave-one-out accuracy of 85% (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.8). The PiB testing classifier achieved an AUC of 0.72, and when classifier self-tuning was allowed, AUC = 0.74. The 36-month disease-progression classifier achieved AUC = 0.75 and accuracy = 71%.

Conclusions

Automated classifiers based on cognitive and peripheral blood protein variables can identify the presence of brain amyloidosis with a modest level of accuracy. Such methods could have implications for clinical trial design and enrollment in the near future.

Classification of evidence

This study provides Class II evidence that a classification algorithm based on cognitive, imaging, and peripheral blood protein measures identifies patients with brain amyloid on PiB-PET with moderate accuracy (sensitivity 68%, specificity 78%).