As of March 2021, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had caused more than 123 million infections and almost 3 million deaths worldwide. Dramatic advances have been made in vaccine development and nonpharmaceutical interventions to stop the spread of infection. However, treatments to stop disease progression are limited. A wide variety of "repurposed" drugs evaluated for treatment of COVID-19 have had little or no benefit. More recently, intravenous monoclonal antibody (mAb) combinations have been authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration for emergency use for outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 including some active against emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants of concern. Easier to administer therapeutics including intramuscular and subcutaneous mAbs and oral antivirals are in clinical trials. Reliable, safe, effective COVID-19 treatment for early infection in the outpatient setting is of urgent and critical importance. Availability of such treatment should lead to reduced progression of COVID-19.

Prompt initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to reduce comorbidity and mortality among people living with HIV, especially for those with a low CD4 cell count. However there is evidence that not everyone receives prompt initiation of ART after enrolling into HIV care. The current study investigated factors associated with failure to initiate ART within two years of entering into care among those with a CD4 count at or below 350 cells/mm3. The sample included 4,907 ART-naive patients with a CD4 count at or below 350 cells/mm3 enrolled between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2012 at any of eight clinical sites in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS). The two-year risk of delayed ART initiation was estimated using a log-binomial regression model with stabilized inverse probability of censoring weights for those lost to follow-up. Adjusting for other factors, an earlier enrollment date was the sole demographic characteristic associated with an increased risk of delayed ART initiation. Higher CD4 count, lower viral load, and a prevalent AIDS diagnosis were clinical characteristics associated with delayed ART initiation. Gender, age, race/ethnicity and HIV risk factors such as reported male-to-male sexual contact and injection drug use were not associated with delayed ART initiation. This study identified characteristics of patients for whom treatment was strongly to moderately recommended but who did not initiate ART within two years of entering care. Despite the known benefits of early antiretroviral therapy initiation, a lower viral load measurement may continue to be an important clinical characteristic in the more recent era with current ART initiation guidelines. These findings provide a target for closer monitoring and intervention to reduce disparities in HIV care.

Cause-specific mortality is an important outcome in studies of interventions to improve survival, yet causes of death can be misclassified. Here, we present an approach to performing sensitivity analyses for misclassification of cause of death in the parametric g-formula. The g-formula is a useful method to estimate effects of interventions in epidemiologic research because it appropriately accounts for time-varying confounding affected by prior treatment and can estimate risk under dynamic treatment plans. We illustrate our approach using an example comparing acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality under immediate and delayed treatment strategies in a cohort of therapy-naive adults entering care for human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United States. In the standard g-formula approach, 10-year risk of AIDS-related mortality under delayed treatment was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.17, 2.54) times the risk under immediate treatment. In a sensitivity analysis assuming that AIDS-related death was measured with sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 90%, the 10-year risk ratio comparing AIDS-related mortality between treatment plans was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.13, 3.14). When sensitivity and specificity are unknown, this approach can be used to estimate the effects of dynamic treatment plans under a range of plausible values of sensitivity and specificity of the recorded event type.

Marginal structural models for time-fixed treatments fit using inverse-probability weighted estimating equations are increasingly popular. Nonetheless, the resulting effect estimates are subject to finite-sample bias when data are sparse, as is typical for large-sample procedures. Here we propose a semi-Bayes estimation approach which penalizes or shrinks the estimated model parameters to improve finite-sample performance. This approach uses simple symmetric data-augmentation priors. Limited simulation experiments indicate that the proposed approach reduces finite-sample bias and improves confidence-interval coverage when the true values lie within the central "hill" of the prior distribution. We illustrate the approach with data from a nonexperimental study of HIV treatments.

Objective

To explore the effectiveness of raltegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) on treatment response among ART-naive patients seeking routine clinical care.

Design

Cohort study of adults enrolled in HIV care in the United States.

Methods

We compared virologic suppression and CD4 cell count recovery over a 2.5 year period after initiation of an ART regimen containing raltegravir or efavirenz using observational data from a US clinical cohort, generalized to the US population of people with diagnosed HIV. We accounted for nonrandom treatment assignment, informative censoring, and nonrandom selection from the US target population using inverse probability weights.

Results

Of the 2843 patients included in the study, 2476 initiated the efavirenz-containing regimen and 367 initiated the raltegravir-containing regimen. In the weighted intent-to-treat analysis, patients spent an average of 74 (95% confidence interval: 41, 106) additional days alive with a suppressed viral load on the raltegravir regimen than on the efavirenz regimen over the 2.5-year study period. CD4 cell count recovery was also superior under the raltegravir regimen.

Conclusion

Patients receiving raltegravir spent more time alive and suppressed than patients receiving efavirenz, but the probability of viral suppression by 2.5 years after treatment was similar between groups. Optimizing the amount of time spent in a state of viral suppression is important to improve survival among people living with HIV and to reduce onward transmission.

Background

Using a dynamic visual display, we examine the changes in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) plasma viral load and CD4 cell count for 5 years after antiretroviral therapy initiation in a large cohort of patients with HIV.

Methods

Patients at a Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems site who initiated combination antiretroviral therapy between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2012 were followed for 5 years for HIV-1 plasma viral load, CD4 cell count, and mortality. The joint distribution of CD4 cell count and viral load over time was depicted in an animated display using a bivariate kernel smoother.

Results

Within days of therapy initiation, many patients had a suppressed viral load and their median CD4 cell count had increased. However, the median CD4 cell count remained below normal levels throughout follow-up period and the proportion of patients with high viral load occasionally increased, even years after therapy initiation.

Conclusions

The dramatic changes in viral load and CD4 cell count after therapy initiation highlight the overwhelming effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in the modern era. However, this work also emphasizes the need for pharmaceutical or behavioral interventions to prevent virologic failure and to stimulate complete recovery of normal CD4 cell count.

Background

Efavirenz has been a mainstay of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for over 15 years in the US. Its association with neuropsychiatric side effects may influence clinical prescribing and management.

Methods

We included HIV-infected adults enrolled in care at seven sites across the US, who initiated combination ART between 1999 and 2015. We examined the proportion initiating and continuing on efavirenz, overall and by mental health status. Log binomial and Cox models were used to estimate associations between mental health, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics and initiating or switching from efavirenz as first-line ART.

Results

Of the 8,230 participants included, 3,710 (45%) initiated efavirenz. In multivariable analyses, prior mono- or dual-ART, ART initiation after 2006, being female, intravenous drug use, antidepressant prescription, previous mental health diagnosis and baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count >350 cells/mm³ were inversely associated with initiating efavirenz. Participants initiating efavirenz had a faster time to a regimen switch, compared with those initiating an efavirenz-free regimen (P-value <0.01). Among efavirenz initiators, starting efavirenz in more recent time periods and a previous mental health diagnosis were associated with faster time to switching from efavirenz. Despite this, 40-50% of participants with a previous mental health diagnosis initiated and continued on efavirenz for much of the follow-up period.

Conclusions

Multiple clinical factors, including mental health diagnoses, appeared to influence efavirenz use. While mental health diagnosis status and more recent treatment starts were associated with shorter duration of efavirenz therapy, a previous mental health diagnosis did not preclude efavirenz initiation or continuation in many participants.

Background

Evidence about the effect of initiating efavirenz-containing combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) as the first-line therapy on suicidal thoughts remains conflicting.

Methods

Using data from a cohort of HIV-infected adults enrolled in routine care across 5 sites in the United States, we included participants with a baseline patient-reported outcome measure and detectable viral load who initiated ART between 2011 and 2014. Participants were followed until the earliest of the following: first suicidal thoughts, discontinuation of initial ART regimen, death, loss to care (>12 months with no HIV appointments), or administrative censoring (2014-2015). Suicidal thoughts were measured using a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 item. We used weighted marginal structural Cox models to estimate the effect of initiating efavirenz-containing ART, versus efavirenz-free ART, on the hazard of active or passive suicidal thoughts after ART initiation, accounting for confounding by channeling bias.

Results

Overall, 597 participants were followed for a median of 19 months (13,132 total person-months); 147 (25%) initiated efavirenz-containing ART. At ART initiation, 38% of participants reported suicidal thoughts or depressive symptoms. Initiating efavirenz-based ART was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for suicidal thoughts below the null in the crude analysis [HR, 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53 to 1.45] and above the null in the weighted analysis (HR, 1.21; 95% CI: 0.66 to 2.28). Among those with a prior mental health issue, the weighted HR was 1.76 (95% CI: 0.45 to 6.86).

Conclusions

After accounting for measured channeling bias, we observed no strong evidence that initiating efavirenz-containing ART increased the hazard of suicidal thoughts.

Objective

The goal of this study was to compare the effectiveness of fish oil, fenofibrate, gemfibrozil, and atorvastatin on reducing triglyceride (TG) levels among a large cohort of HIV-infected patients in clinical care.

Design

Retrospective observational cohort study.

Methods

The primary endpoint was absolute change in TG levels measured using the last TG value pretreatment and the first TG value posttreatment. A pre-post quasi-experimental design was used to estimate the change in TG because of initiating fish oil. Linear regression models examined the comparative effectiveness of treatment with fish oil versus gemfibrozil, fenofibrate, or atorvastatin for TG reduction. Models were adjusted for baseline differences in age, sex, race, CD4⁺ cell count, diabetes, body mass index, protease inhibitor use, and time between TG measures.

Results

A total of 493 patients (mean age, 46 years; 95% male) were included (46 patients receiving gemfibrozil; 80, fenofibrate; 291, atorvastatin; and 76, fish oil) with a mean baseline TG of 347 mg/dL. New use of fish oil decreased TG [ΔTG, -45 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval (CI): -80 to -11] in the pre-post study. Compared with fish oil (reference), fibrates were more effective (ΔTG, -66; 95% CI: -120 to -12) in reducing TG levels, whereas atorvastatin was not (ΔTG, -39; 95% CI: -86 to 9).

Conclusions

In HIV-infected patients in routine clinical care, fish oil is less effective than fibrates (but not atorvastatin) at lowering TG values. Fish oil may still represent an attractive alternative for patients with moderately elevated TGs, particularly among patients who may not want or tolerate fibrates.

Background

Among low-income women with and without HIV, it is a priority to reduce age-related comorbidities, including hypertension and its sequelae. Because consistent health insurance access has been identified as an important factor in controlling many chronic diseases, we estimated the effects of coverage interruption on loss of hypertension control in a cohort of women in the United States.

Methods

We analyzed prospective, longitudinal data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study. HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women were included between 2005 and 2014 when they reported health insurance at consecutive biannual visits and had controlled hypertension, and were followed for any insurance break and loss of hypertension control. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) by Cox proportional hazards regression with inverse-probability-of-treatment-and censoring weights (marginal structural models), and plotted the cumulative incidence of hypertension control loss.

Results

Among 890 HIV-infected women, the weighted HR for hypertension control loss comparing health insurance interruption to uninterrupted coverage was 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-1.91). Inclusion of AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) participation with health insurance modestly increased the HR (1.47; 95% CI, 1.04-2.07). Analysis of 272 HIV-uninfected women yielded a similar HR (1.39; 95% CI, 0.88-2.21). Additionally, there were indications of uninterrupted coverage having a protective effect on hypertension when compared with the natural course in HIV-infected (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.61-1.11) and HIV-uninfected (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.52-1.19) women.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence that health insurance continuity promotes hypertension control in key populations. Interventions that ensure coverage stability and ADAP access should be a policy priority.