How do cultural and economic issues interact in voter decision-making? This dissertation explores this question with a study on expectations of public service provision in Brazil. Existing work shows that economic decline exacerbates reactions against progressive value change, providing insights into the interplay between culture and economics in vote choice. This work advances our knowledge by presenting evidence that cultural values (i.e., positions on LGBTQ and abortion rights) shape expectations of public service provision. Voters expect candidates with shared cultural values to behave more ethically and, therefore, provide better public services. Moreover, this study shows evidence that information about candidate track records moderates the impact of cultural values on vote choice.
This study's hypotheses originate from 33 semi-structured interviews. Interview data indicate that participants are primarily concerned with public service provision and seek information on candidates’ public service records. However, shared cultural values remain critical because participants use them to make important inferences. Candidates with shared cultural values are thought to be more honest and care more about constituents. Because these qualities are associated with public service provision, participants expect candidates with shared cultural values to be better public service providers.
To test the hypotheses resulting from interview data, I field a conjoint experiment with manipulated mediators (n=2,743) where participants assess fictitious candidates for mayor. The conjoint design randomizes candidates' positions on cultural issues (LGBTQ and abortion rights), with a second randomization revealing or omitting their public service records. I find that voters expect candidates with shared cultural values to be more ethical and, therefore, better public service providers. Participants rely more heavily on cultural values when records are omitted, suggesting that candidates with less experience have stronger incentives to campaign on cultural issues.
Understanding the role of cultural values in vote choice carries implications for understanding the politics of inclusivity, distributive justice, and democratic resilience. Moreover, given how right-wing populist candidates often pose as outsiders and mobilize culturally conservative voters, this work carries implications for our understanding of support for populism.
