The integrative analysis of high-throughput reporter assays, machine learning, and profiles of epigenomic chromatin state in a broad array of cells and tissues has the potential to significantly improve our understanding of noncoding regulatory element function and its contribution to human disease. Here, we report results from the CAGI 5 regulation saturation challenge where participants were asked to predict the impact of nucleotide substitution at every base pair within five disease-associated human enhancers and nine disease-associated promoters. A library of mutations covering all bases was generated by saturation mutagenesis and altered activity was assessed in a massively parallel reporter assay (MPRA) in relevant cell lines. Reporter expression was measured relative to plasmid DNA to determine the impact of variants. The challenge was to predict the functional effects of variants on reporter expression. Comparative analysis of the full range of submitted prediction results identifies the most successful models of transcription factor binding sites, machine learning algorithms, and ways to choose among or incorporate diverse datatypes and cell-types for training computational models. These results have the potential to improve the design of future studies on more diverse sets of regulatory elements and aid the interpretation of disease-associated genetic variation.

Background

The Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) aims to advance the state-of-the-art for computational prediction of genetic variant impact, particularly where relevant to disease. The five complete editions of the CAGI community experiment comprised 50 challenges, in which participants made blind predictions of phenotypes from genetic data, and these were evaluated by independent assessors.

Results

Performance was particularly strong for clinical pathogenic variants, including some difficult-to-diagnose cases, and extends to interpretation of cancer-related variants. Missense variant interpretation methods were able to estimate biochemical effects with increasing accuracy. Assessment of methods for regulatory variants and complex trait disease risk was less definitive and indicates performance potentially suitable for auxiliary use in the clinic.

Conclusions

Results show that while current methods are imperfect, they have major utility for research and clinical applications. Emerging methods and increasingly large, robust datasets for training and assessment promise further progress ahead.