We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM2.5 concentrations will increase; however O3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NOx emissions and VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC 50% higher, and all other species 130-250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions below ground. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The People's Republic of China, the world's most populous nation, is considering extensive development of its automotive transportation infrastructure. Upper limits to the associated pollution increases can be defined through scenarios with Western style vehicles and vehicle-to-person ratios. Here we construct estimates of fundamental changes to chemistry of the Pacific ocean/ atmosphere system through simple budgeting procedures. Regional increases in tropospheric ozone could reach tens of parts per billion. Observations/experiments suggest that enhanced nitrogen oxides will react with sea salt aerosols to yield chlorine atoms in the marine boundary layer. Nitrate deposition onto the open sea surface would support several percent of exported North Pacific carbon production. Transport of biologically active iron to surface waters may follow from increases in mineral dust and acid sulfate aerosols. Altered plankton ecodynamics will feed back into climate processes through sea to air flux of reduced sulfur gases and through carbon dioxide drawdown. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Local surface travel needs in the People's Republic of China (mainland China) have traditionally been met largely by nonpolluting bicycles. A major automobile manufacturing/importing effort has begun in the country over the last decade, and planning documents indicate that the Chinese may strive to acquire more than 100 million vehicles early in the next century. By analogy with large automotive fleets already existing in the western world, both regional and global scale pollution effects are to be expected from the increase. The present work adopts the latest projections of Chinese automobile manufacture and performs some quantitative assessments of the extent of pollution generation. Focus for the investigation is placed upon the oxidant ozone. Emissions of the precursor species nitrogen oxides and volatile organics are constructed based on data for the current automotive sector in the eastern portion of the United States. Ozone production is first estimated from measured values for continental/oceanic scale yields relative to precursor oxidation. The estimates are then corroborated through idealized two dimensional modeling of the photochemistry taking place in springtime air flow off the Asian land mass and toward the Pacific Ocean. The projected fleet sizes could increase coastal and remote oceanic ozone concentrations by tens of parts per billion (ppb) in the lower troposphere. Influences on the tropospheric aerosol system and on the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are treated peripherally. Nitrogen oxides created during the vehicular internal combustion process will contribute to nitrate pollution levels measured in the open Pacific. The potential for soot and fugitive dust increases should be considered as the automotive infrastructure develops. Since the emerging Chinese automotive transportation system will represent a substantial addition to the global fleet and all the carbon in gasoline is eventually oxidized completely, a significant rise in global carbon dioxide inputs will ensue as well. Some policy issues are treated preliminary. The assumption is made that alterations to regional oxidant/aerosol systems and to terrestrial climate are conceivable. The likelihood that the Chinese can achieve the latest vehicle fleet goals is discussed, from the points of view of new production, positive pollution feedbacks from a growing automobile industry, and known petroleum reserves. Vehicular fuel and maintenance options lying before the Chinese are outlines and compared. To provide some perspective on the magnitude of the environmental changes associated with an Asian automotive buildup, recent estimates of the effects of future air traffic over the Pacific Rim are described.