Abstract Introduction The detection of circulating tumour cells (CTCs) in the peripheral blood and disseminated tumour cells (DTCs) in the bone marrow are promising prognostic tools for risk stratification in early breast cancer. There is, however, a need for further validation of these techniques in larger patient cohorts with adequate follow-up periods. Methods We assayed CTCs and DTCs at primary surgery in 733 stage I or II breast cancer patients with a median follow-up time of 7.6 years. CTCs were detected in samples of peripheral blood mononuclear cells previously stored in liquid-nitrogen using a previously-developed multi-marker quantitative PCR (QPCR)-based assay. DTCs were detected in bone marrow samples by immunocytochemical analysis using anti-cytokeratin antibodies. Results CTCs were detected in 7.9% of patients, while DTCs were found in 11.7%. Both CTC and DTC positivity predicted poor metastasis-free survival (MFS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS); MFS hazard ratio (HR) = 2.4 (P < 0.001)/1.9 (P = 0.006), and BCSS HR = 2.5 (P < 0.001)/2.3 (P = 0.01), for CTC/DTC status, respectively). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that CTC status was an independent prognostic variable for both MFS and BCSS. CTC status also identified a subset of patients with significantly poorer outcome among low-risk node negative patients that did not receive adjuvant systemic therapy (MFS HR 2.3 (P = 0.039), BCSS HR 2.9 (P = 0.017)). Using both tests provided increased prognostic information and indicated different relevance within biologically dissimilar breast cancer subtypes. Conclusions These results support the use of CTC analysis in early breast cancer to generate clinically useful prognostic information.

Previous research has shown that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to stratify women according to their risk of developing primary invasive breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the association between a recently validated PRS of 313 germline variants (PRS₃₁₃) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. We included 56,068 women of European ancestry diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer from 1990 onward with follow-up from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Metachronous CBC risk (N = 1,027) according to the distribution of PRS₃₁₃ was quantified using Cox regression analyses. We assessed PRS₃₁₃ interaction with age at first diagnosis, family history, morphology, ER status, PR status, and HER2 status, and (neo)adjuvant therapy. In studies of Asian women, with limited follow-up, CBC risk associated with PRS₃₁₃ was assessed using logistic regression for 340 women with CBC compared with 12,133 women with unilateral breast cancer. Higher PRS₃₁₃ was associated with increased CBC risk: hazard ratio per standard deviation (SD) = 1.25 (95%CI = 1.18-1.33) for Europeans, and an OR per SD = 1.15 (95%CI = 1.02-1.29) for Asians. The absolute lifetime risks of CBC, accounting for death as competing risk, were 12.4% for European women at the 10^th percentile and 20.5% at the 90^th percentile of PRS₃₁₃. We found no evidence of confounding by or interaction with individual characteristics, characteristics of the primary tumor, or treatment. The C-index for the PRS₃₁₃ alone was 0.563 (95%CI = 0.547-0.586). In conclusion, PRS₃₁₃ is an independent factor associated with CBC risk and can be incorporated into CBC risk prediction models to help improve stratification and optimize surveillance and treatment strategies.