The advent of next-generation sequencing has dramatically decreased the cost for whole-genome sequencing and increased the viability for its application in research and clinical care. The Personal Genome Project (PGP) provides unrestricted access to genomes of individuals and their associated phenotypes. This resource enabled the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) to create a community challenge to assess the bioinformatics community's ability to predict traits from whole genomes. In the CAGI PGP challenge, researchers were asked to predict whether an individual had a particular trait or profile based on their whole genome. Several approaches were used to assess submissions, including ROC AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve), probability rankings, the number of correct predictions, and statistical significance simulations. Overall, we found that prediction of individual traits is difficult, relying on a strong knowledge of trait frequency within the general population, whereas matching genomes to trait profiles relies heavily upon a small number of common traits including ancestry, blood type, and eye color. When a rare genetic disorder is present, profiles can be matched when one or more pathogenic variants are identified. Prediction accuracy has improved substantially over the last 6 years due to improved methodology and a better understanding of features.

Background

The Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) aims to advance the state-of-the-art for computational prediction of genetic variant impact, particularly where relevant to disease. The five complete editions of the CAGI community experiment comprised 50 challenges, in which participants made blind predictions of phenotypes from genetic data, and these were evaluated by independent assessors.

Results

Performance was particularly strong for clinical pathogenic variants, including some difficult-to-diagnose cases, and extends to interpretation of cancer-related variants. Missense variant interpretation methods were able to estimate biochemical effects with increasing accuracy. Assessment of methods for regulatory variants and complex trait disease risk was less definitive and indicates performance potentially suitable for auxiliary use in the clinic.

Conclusions

Results show that while current methods are imperfect, they have major utility for research and clinical applications. Emerging methods and increasingly large, robust datasets for training and assessment promise further progress ahead.

(Cell 173, 371–385.e1–e9; April 5, 2018) It has come to our attention that we made two errors in preparation of this manuscript. First, in the STAR Methods, under the subheading of “Hypermutators and Immune Infiltrates” within the “Quantification and Statistical Analysis” section, we inadvertently referred to Figures S7A–S7C for data corresponding to sample stratification by hypermutator status alone in the last sentence. It should have referred to Figure S6A–S6C. Second, the lists of highly frequent missense mutations for COAD (colon adenocarcinoma) and READ (rectum adenocarcinoma) displayed in Figure S7 were incorrect because when we ordered the mutations in the initial analysis, we mistakenly combined the two cancer types COAD and READ for analysis, despite the fact that they were listed as two separate cancer types in the x-axis of the figure. After re-ordering the mutations by frequency for COAD and READ independently, information on highly frequent missense mutations for each of these cancer types is different and updated now in the revised Figure S7. These errors don't change the major conclusions of the paper and have been corrected online. We apologize for any confusion they may have caused. [Figure-presented]

For the past decade, cancer genomic studies have focused on mutations leading to splice-site disruption, overlooking those having splice-creating potential. Here, we applied a bioinformatic tool, MiSplice, for the large-scale discovery of splice-site-creating mutations (SCMs) across 8,656 TCGA tumors. We report 1,964 originally mis-annotated mutations having clear evidence of creating alternative splice junctions. TP53 and GATA3 have 26 and 18 SCMs, respectively, and ATRX has 5 from lower-grade gliomas. Mutations in 11 genes, including PARP1, BRCA1, and BAP1, were experimentally validated for splice-site-creating function. Notably, we found that neoantigens induced by SCMs are likely several folds more immunogenic compared to missense mutations, exemplified by the recurrent GATA3 SCM. Further, high expression of PD-1 and PD-L1 was observed in tumors with SCMs, suggesting candidates for immune blockade therapy. Our work highlights the importance of integrating DNA and RNA data for understanding the functional and the clinical implications of mutations in human diseases.

Identifying molecular cancer drivers is critical for precision oncology. Multiple advanced algorithms to identify drivers now exist, but systematic attempts to combine and optimize them on large datasets are few. We report a PanCancer and PanSoftware analysis spanning 9,423 tumor exomes (comprising all 33 of The Cancer Genome Atlas projects) and using 26 computational tools to catalog driver genes and mutations. We identify 299 driver genes with implications regarding their anatomical sites and cancer/cell types. Sequence- and structure-based analyses identified >3,400 putative missense driver mutations supported by multiple lines of evidence. Experimental validation confirmed 60%-85% of predicted mutations as likely drivers. We found that >300 MSI tumors are associated with high PD-1/PD-L1, and 57% of tumors analyzed harbor putative clinically actionable events. Our study represents the most comprehensive discovery of cancer genes and mutations to date and will serve as a blueprint for future biological and clinical endeavors.