Background

Identifying pregnancies at risk for preterm birth, one of the leading causes of worldwide infant mortality, has the potential to improve prenatal care. However, we lack broadly applicable methods to accurately predict preterm birth risk. The dense longitudinal information present in electronic health records (EHRs) is enabling scalable and cost-efficient risk modeling of many diseases, but EHR resources have been largely untapped in the study of pregnancy.

Methods

Here, we apply machine learning to diverse data from EHRs with 35,282 deliveries to predict singleton preterm birth.

Results

We find that machine learning models based on billing codes alone can predict preterm birth risk at various gestational ages (e.g., ROC-AUC = 0.75, PR-AUC = 0.40 at 28 weeks of gestation) and outperform comparable models trained using known risk factors (e.g., ROC-AUC = 0.65, PR-AUC = 0.25 at 28 weeks). Examining the patterns learned by the model reveals it stratifies deliveries into interpretable groups, including high-risk preterm birth subtypes enriched for distinct comorbidities. Our machine learning approach also predicts preterm birth subtypes (spontaneous vs. indicated), mode of delivery, and recurrent preterm birth. Finally, we demonstrate the portability of our approach by showing that the prediction models maintain their accuracy on a large, independent cohort (5978 deliveries) from a different healthcare system.

Conclusions

By leveraging rich phenotypic and genetic features derived from EHRs, we suggest that machine learning algorithms have great potential to improve medical care during pregnancy. However, further work is needed before these models can be applied in clinical settings.

Uterine fibroids are benign tumors of the uterus affecting up to 77% of women by menopause. They are the leading indication for hysterectomy, and account for $34 billion annually in the United States. Race/ethnicity and age are the strongest known risk factors. African American (AA) women have higher prevalence, earlier onset, and larger and more numerous fibroids than European American women. We conducted a multi-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) of fibroid risk among AA women followed by in silico genetically predicted gene expression profiling of top hits. In Stage 1, cases and controls were confirmed by pelvic imaging, genotyped and imputed to 1000 Genomes. Stage 2 used self-reported fibroid and GWAS data from 23andMe, Inc. and the Black Women's Health Study. Associations with fibroid risk were modeled using logistic regression adjusted for principal components, followed by meta-analysis of results. We observed a significant association among 3399 AA cases and 4764 AA controls at rs739187 (risk-allele frequency = 0.27) in CYTH4 (OR (95% confidence interval) = 1.23 (1.16-1.30), p value = 7.82 × 10^-9). Evaluation of the genetic association results with MetaXcan identified lower predicted gene expression of CYTH4 in thyroid tissue as significantly associated with fibroid risk (p value = 5.86 × 10^-8). In this first multi-stage GWAS for fibroids among AA women, we identified a novel risk locus for fibroids within CYTH4 that impacts gene expression in thyroid and has potential biological relevance for fibroids.

The article "A multi-stage genome-wide association study of uterine fibroids in African Americans", written by Jacklyn N. Hellwege, was originally published Online First without open access. After publication in volume 136, issue 10, page 1363-1373 the author decided to opt for Open Choice and to make the article an open access publication. Therefore, the copyright of the article has been changed to

Endometriosis is a heritable hormone-dependent gynecological disorder, associated with severe pelvic pain and reduced fertility; however, its molecular mechanisms remain largely unknown. Here we perform a meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association case-control data sets, totalling 17,045 endometriosis cases and 191,596 controls. In addition to replicating previously reported loci, we identify five novel loci significantly associated with endometriosis risk (P<5 × 10^-8), implicating genes involved in sex steroid hormone pathways (FN1, CCDC170, ESR1, SYNE1 and FSHB). Conditional analysis identified five secondary association signals, including two at the ESR1 locus, resulting in 19 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with endometriosis, which together explain up to 5.19% of variance in endometriosis. These results highlight novel variants in or near specific genes with important roles in sex steroid hormone signalling and function, and offer unique opportunities for more targeted functional research efforts.

We previously identified associations with ovarian cancer outcome at five genetic loci. To identify putatively causal genetic variants and target genes, we prioritized two ovarian outcome loci (1q22 and 19p12) for further study. Bioinformatic and functional genetic analyses indicated that MEF2D and ZNF100 are targets of candidate outcome variants at 1q22 and 19p12, respectively. At 19p12, the chromatin interaction of a putative regulatory element with the ZNF100 promoter region correlated with candidate outcome variants. At 1q22, putative regulatory elements enhanced MEF2D promoter activity and haplotypes containing candidate outcome variants modulated these effects. In a public dataset, MEF2D and ZNF100 expression were both associated with ovarian cancer progression-free or overall survival time. In an extended set of 6,162 epithelial ovarian cancer patients, we found that functional candidates at the 1q22 and 19p12 loci, as well as other regional variants, were nominally associated with patient outcome; however, no associations reached our threshold for statistical significance (p<1×10^-5). Larger patient numbers will be needed to convincingly identify any true associations at these loci.

We previously identified associations with ovarian cancer outcome at five genetic loci. To identify putatively causal genetic variants and target genes, we prioritized two ovarian outcome loci (1q22 and 19p12) for further study. Bioinformatic and functional genetic analyses indicated that MEF2D and ZNF100 are targets of candidate outcome variants at 1q22 and 19p12, respectively. At 19p12, the chromatin interaction of a putative regulatory element with the ZNF100 promoter region correlated with candidate outcome variants. At 1q22, putative regulatory elements enhanced MEF2D promoter activity and haplotypes containing candidate outcome variants modulated these effects. In a public dataset, MEF2D and ZNF100 expression were both associated with ovarian cancer progression-free or overall survival time. In an extended set of 6,162 epithelial ovarian cancer patients, we found that functional candidates at the 1q22 and 19p12 loci, as well as other regional variants, were nominally associated with patient outcome; however, no associations reached our threshold for statistical significance (p<1×10-5). Larger patient numbers will be needed to convincingly identify any true associations at these loci.

Endometriosis is a common condition associated with debilitating pelvic pain and infertility. A genome-wide association study meta-analysis, including 60,674 cases and 701,926 controls of European and East Asian descent, identified 42 genome-wide significant loci comprising 49 distinct association signals. Effect sizes were largest for stage 3/4 disease, driven by ovarian endometriosis. Identified signals explained up to 5.01% of disease variance and regulated expression or methylation of genes in endometrium and blood, many of which were associated with pain perception/maintenance (SRP14/BMF, GDAP1, MLLT10, BSN and NGF). We observed significant genetic correlations between endometriosis and 11 pain conditions, including migraine, back and multisite chronic pain (MCP), as well as inflammatory conditions, including asthma and osteoarthritis. Multitrait genetic analyses identified substantial sharing of variants associated with endometriosis and MCP/migraine. Targeted investigations of genetically regulated mechanisms shared between endometriosis and other pain conditions are needed to aid the development of new treatments and facilitate early symptomatic intervention.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >250 loci for body mass index (BMI), implicating pathways related to neuronal biology. Most GWAS loci represent clusters of common, noncoding variants from which pinpointing causal genes remains challenging. Here we combined data from 718,734 individuals to discover rare and low-frequency (minor allele frequency (MAF) < 5%) coding variants associated with BMI. We identified 14 coding variants in 13 genes, of which 8 variants were in genes (ZBTB7B, ACHE, RAPGEF3, RAB21, ZFHX3, ENTPD6, ZFR2 and ZNF169) newly implicated in human obesity, 2 variants were in genes (MC4R and KSR2) previously observed to be mutated in extreme obesity and 2 variants were in GIPR. The effect sizes of rare variants are ~10 times larger than those of common variants, with the largest effect observed in carriers of an MC4R mutation introducing a stop codon (p.Tyr35Ter, MAF = 0.01%), who weighed ~7 kg more than non-carriers. Pathway analyses based on the variants associated with BMI confirm enrichment of neuronal genes and provide new evidence for adipocyte and energy expenditure biology, widening the potential of genetically supported therapeutic targets in obesity.

In the version of this article originally published, one of the two authors with the name Wei Zhao was omitted from the author list and the affiliations for both authors were assigned to the single Wei Zhao in the author list. In addition, the ORCID for Wei Zhao (Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA) was incorrectly assigned to author Wei Zhou. The errors have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.