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    Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products: Structuring, Trading and Risk Management
    Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products: Structuring, Trading and Risk Management
    Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products: Structuring, Trading and Risk Management
    Ebook2,216 pages20 hours

    Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products: Structuring, Trading and Risk Management

    By Andrea Roncoroni, Gianluca Fusai and Mark Cummins

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    About this ebook

    The comprehensive guide to working more effectively within the multi-commodity market.

    The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products is the definitive desktop reference for traders, structurers, and risk managers who wish to broaden their knowledge base. This non-technical yet sophisticated manual covers everything the professional needs to become acquainted with the structure, function, rules, and practices across a wide spectrum of commodity markets. Contributions from a global team of renowned industry experts provide real-world examples for each market, along with tools for analyzing, pricing, and risk managing deals. The discussion focuses on convergence, including arbitrage valuation, econometric modeling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, and risk, while simulated scenarios help readers understand the practical application of the methods and models presented.

    Gradual deregulation and the resulting increase in diversity and activity have driven the evolution of the traditionally segmented market toward integration, raising important questions about opportunity identification and analysis in multi-commodity deals. This book helps professionals navigate the shift, providing in-depth information and practical advice.

    • Structure and manage both simple and sophisticated multi-commodity deals
    • Exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies with a diversified set of commodity prices
    • Develop more accurate forecasting models by considering additional metrics
    • Price energy products and other commodities in segmented markets with an eye toward specific structural features

    As one of the only markets strong enough to boom during the credit crunch, the commodities markets are growing rapidly. Combined with increasing convergence, this transition presents potentially valuable opportunities for the development of a robust multi-commodity portfolio. For the professional seeking deeper understanding and a more effective strategy, the Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers complete information and expert guidance.

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherWiley
    Release dateFeb 19, 2015
    ISBN9780470661833
    Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products: Structuring, Trading and Risk Management

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      Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products - Andrea Roncoroni

      Part One

      Commodity Markets and Products

      CHAPTER 1

      Oil Markets and Products

      Cristiano CampiFrancesco Galdenzi

      1.1 INTRODUCTION

      The price of crude oil and oil products, once discussed solely in industry and government circles, has taken centre stage in the past 15 years among the lead indicators of the state of the economy and is now always quoted when forecasting economic trends. This phenomenon has occurred in conjunction with the growing acceptance of commodities as a mainstream financial and investment asset class, with the resulting growth in the volume and variety of financial instruments linked to them and the widespread use of these financial instruments in hedging, risk management and investments products.

      This chapter focuses on two important offshoots of this ‘coming of age’ of the energy markets: the implementation of financially settled risk management policies by corporations exposed to fluctuating oil and oil product prices and the growth of hedging activities for companies active in physical oil trading. Before going further, it is worth looking at some key elements that determine the economics in the oil and oil products value chain. The oil industry is based on two main types of processes:

      Upstream. This part of the oil cycle is associated with the exploration and production of crude oil.

      Downstream. This part encompasses the transportation, refining and marketing of refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, etc.).

      The production of crude represents the starting point of the oil cycle. A producer is a company dedicated to extracting crude oil, which is supplied to the refinery system for the production of products needed to satisfy the demand of its energy consumers. The oil cycle is composed of the following elements.

      The production of crude oil by several kinds of players, including:

      Integrated oil companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell in the UK, Eni in Italy, China National Petroleum Corporation in China and Exxon in the United States.

      Independent oil companies, such as Cairn Energy in the UK and Perenco in France.

      National oil companies (NOCs), such as Petrobras in Brazil, Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia or Petronas in Malaysia.

      The demand for crude oil by the refinery system to produce oil products from:

      Refineries owned and managed by integrated oil companies or NOCs sourcing crude oil from their own production as well as buying it from international oil markets.

      Independent refineries, such as Saras in Italy and Valero in the United States, sourcing crude oil from the international oil markets.

      The demand for oil products by final consumers, such as utilities, airlines, shipping companies, energy-intensive manufacturers, petrochemical companies, gasoline and diesel retailers.

      The cycle described above is complemented by the transportation system, a vast and complex network of pipelines, crude oil and product carriers (by sea, rail and road) and storage facilities dedicated to the logistics behind the delivery of crude oil to refineries and of products to the final consumers.

      The price of crude oil and oil products is driven by many factors, from macroeconomics to environmental legislation, from geopolitics to the weather and from production levels to taxation. The list in Table 1.1 proposes a scheme of the key factors observed by market operators when trying to assess price trends for oil and oil products.

      TABLE 1.1 Key factors impacting price trends of oil and oil products

      1.2 RISK MANAGEMENT FOR CORPORATIONS: HEDGING USING DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS

      1.2.1 Crude Oil and Oil Products Risk Management for Corporations

      1.2.1.1 Corporate Risk Management Overview

      Companies with exposure to the price volatility of oil and oil products are taking an active role in managing this risk. They do so by entering into financially settled derivatives transactions, with the goal of achieving one of the following objectives:

      Budget and/or profit margin protection.

      Stabilization of cash flow and control of supply chain prices.

      Gaining competitive advantage through swift reactions to changes in market prices.

      Effective energy price risk management requires expertise in both financial instruments and oil markets: one must find financial instruments that mimic the prices from the suppliers (or to the customers) and constantly analyse oil price movements in the commodity markets. Because so few organizations have the in-house resources to support such specialization, energy price risk management expertise is often externally sourced from consultants or performed with the support of the sales and trading desks of investment banks, brokers and trading companies.

      Many factors affect the decision as to what is the appropriate risk management instrument, including the following:

      Payoff structure. The hedging tools used need to create a cash flow consistent with the stated requirements of the hedging policy.

      Credit exposure. The choice of hedging strategy can be influenced by its impact on the credit exposure versus the hedging counterpart. For example:

      Swaps are generally more credit intensive (i.e., they generate a higher credit exposure) than options structures.

      A strategy based on a combination of options and/or swaps plus options can help reduce the consumption of credit lines.

      Long-term maturities are more credit intensive than short-term ones.

      Documentation. Hedging counterparts with master agreements – such as with the International Swap Dealers Association (ISDA) – in place with a credit support annex (CSA) generally generate less credit exposure compared with their hedging counterparts without such documentation.

      Accounting rules. Hedging instruments compliant with accounting rules (such as International Accounting Standards (IAS) 39, Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement) tend to be preferred to limit their impact on financial reporting activity. Regulation IAS 39 requires that all derivatives are marked to market, with changes in the mark to market being taken to the profit and loss account. For many entities this would result in a significant amount of profit and loss volatility arising from the use of derivatives spilling over into the financial reports. Customers can mitigate the profit and loss effect arising from derivatives used for hedging by using hedging instruments that comply with certain tests of hedging effectiveness defined in the IAS regulations.

      Financial legislation. New legislation on financial markets introduced after the financial crisis of 2008 (e.g., Dodd–Frank in the UNITED STATES or MIFID and EMIR in the EU) is having a deep impact on the hedging strategies and behaviour of the market participants.

      Suitability. Not all hedging instruments and strategies are suitable for all customers. Local and international financial regulations require banks, trading companies and other providers of risk management services to assess the suitability of the product or strategy offered against several factors, such as the customer's actual risk management needs and ability to understand the implications of the products offered and whether the customer is authorized to enter into such a transaction.

      Basis risk. Most hedging strategies will not match the exact price behaviour of the underlying physical commodity price exposure, since physical contracts can be pricing off indexes that are similar but not equal to the indexes traded on the financial markets. An important part of the risk manager's job is to find the most effective instrument (or the right combination of instruments) to minimize this residual risk.

      Liquidity of the instruments. The choice of the most effective risk management strategy is also driven by market liquidity factors. Hedging large volumes and long tenors generally restricts the strategy to the most liquid indexes and instruments available.

      Internal hedging policy. Most corporations active in the energy risk management space have risk management policies – approved at board level or issued by the chief financial officer (CFO) – defining the hedging volume profile, maximum tenors and derivatives strategies that can be used.

      Market risk measurability. The correct evaluation (fair value) of the risk of the hedging structure at any time during the life of the transaction depends on the availability of reliable market data points across the maturities and volatility of the traded commodities. The availability of these data varies greatly across commodities. Many companies are barred from entering into transactions where the fair value cannot be properly calculated.

      ‘Bookability’ and the back office. A hedging strategy is often defined by the limits of the counterparts booking and documenting the trade, with only transactions that are bookable eventually being executed.

      1.2.1.2 Oil and Oil Products Overview

      The oil we find underground is called crude oil, and it is a mixture of hydrocarbons – from almost solid to gaseous – produced when plants and animals decayed under layers of sand and mud millions of years ago. Many grades of crude oil are produced today, each grade identified by many characteristics (listed in a document called an ‘assay’), such as viscosity, flash point and aniline point. For the purposes of this chapter, only two of the main characteristics are considered: the American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity and the sulphur content.

      API gravity. This is a measure of the crude oil density relative to the density of water, an index developed by the API and expressed in the range from 0° to 100°, with 0° being the heaviest and 100° the lightest. Water has an API gravity of 10° and the majority of crude oils have an API gravity in the range of 30° to 40° (also called intermediate or medium crude oils) – most refineries are configured to process crude oil within this range. Crude oils with an API gravity above 40° are called light and those with an API gravity below 30° are called heavy. The higher the API gravity, the higher the proportion of high-added-value products (such as gasoline, kerosene and naphtha) that can be obtained from a specific crude oil during the refining process. Light crude oil trades at a premium compared with intermediate crude oils, and intermediate crude oils trade at a premium to heavy crude oils.

      Sulphur content. The higher a crude oil's sulphur content, the lower its value, since a higher number of sulphur molecules displace hydrocarbon molecules. High sulphur content also has other negative side effects, such as increasing the speed of corrosion in pipelines and refinery equipment, and is an atmospheric pollutant when the oil or oil product is burned. Sulphur content is expressed as a percentage of weight, with three main categories: sour (>1.5%), medium sour (0.5–1.5%) and sweet (<0.5%). Sweet crude oil trades at a premium to medium sour and sour crudes.

      The API grade and sulphur content are the main elements defining the value of crude oil. Figure 1.1 presents the main crude oil benchmarks traded in the international markets.

      FIGURE 1.1 Main crude oil benchmarks (API and sulphur content)

      Before crude oil can be used for anything it must be processed in an oil refinery. Crude oil is a mix of different chemical compounds, a combination of hydrogen and carbon atoms called hydrocarbons. Each of these chemical compounds has its own boiling temperature. Hence if one progressively raises the temperature of crude oil in a container, one obtains progressive separation by evaporating the various chemical compounds; once separated, the compounds are cooled and turned back into liquid. The temperatures at which the different chemical compounds reach their boiling points define what is called a distillation curve, and different types of crudes have different distillation curves. The main refinery techniques are discussed later, when we examine the refinery sector's hedging strategies.

      A single crude oil or mix of crude oils (called a ‘crude slate’) can be used as feedstock and processed in a refinery, with the resulting mix of oil products called a ‘product slate’ (see Figure 1.2). Refinery operators always try to optimize production by purchasing a crude slate that maximizes the desired product slate. The percentage of each oil product produced per unit of feedstock is called the ‘yield’ (see Table 1.2). Local market requirements, product demand seasonality and the complexity of the refinery all affect the yield values for refineries around the world.

      TABLE 1.2 Average yield structure

      FIGURE 1.2 Distillation column

      1.2.1.3 Oil Price Risk Management Overview

      The implementation of hedging strategies to protect against the movement of oil and oil product prices affects many different industrial sectors, from those (such as crude oil exploration and production and oil refinery) where the value of oil or oil products is the main driver of business strategy and business economics to those (such as transportation and power generation) where the value of oil and oil products is a key component of the cost line, although not necessarily the main one (but it is often the most volatile).

      Corporate hedging strategies are not homogeneous across different industrial sectors and, even within the same industry sector, substantially different hedging strategies are used by the various market participants. The general principle is that smaller/newer corporations tend to have no hedging policy in place or will be active in the hedging market on a ‘one-off’ basis; the more such companies increase in size and knowledge and/or confidence (in terms of the hedging process, oil markets and tools), the more likely they will be to develop a proper risk management policy. A larger company will also have a better credit risk profile, and will therefore have access to a wider group of risk management service providers (e.g., futures and over-the-counter (OTC) clearing platforms), thus improving the quality and price of the hedging structures they can transact. Medium to large companies often have a dedicated risk management team that manages oil price exposure and is involved with the preparation and execution of risk management strategy.

      A company's risk management strategy is often approved at the board level (or at least at the CFO level) and defines the size and scope of the risk management activity. The following elements are generally included:

      Derivative instruments that can be used, such as swaps, options and exotics.

      Underlyings that can be used for risk management purposes, such as ICE Brent, fuel oil and gasoil cracks.

      The volumes of the product that need to be hedged.

      Maximum maturities for the above-mentioned instruments, such as ICE Brent up to five years but fuel oil up to two years only.

      A hedging matrix (or hedging envelope), which defines the combination of instruments, underlyings and maturities that can be used when implementing a hedging strategy.

      A credit envelope, which defines the criteria the hedging counterparts of a corporation need to meet to qualify as a counterpart (e.g., credit ratings, legal documentation).

      A list of the people authorized to trade on behalf of the company.

      Set-up and credit limits with futures exchanges and OTC clearing houses.

      A typical risk management strategy comprises two components:

      A non-discretionary component defining transactions that the risk management team executes automatically, either at specific dates during the hedging year or whenever the market reaches certain levels.

      A discretionary component where the risk management team is authorized to have a more opportunistic approach and transact whenever they see fit.

      Before analysing in depth the risk management strategies of different energy-intensive customers, it is worth examining the way oil and oil product prices are created and reported. Some of the most traded oil products – such as Brent and West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil, European gasoil and heating oil in the United States – have their prices reported on the major oil futures exchanges (such as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) for Brent and European gasoil and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for WTI and heating oil).

      Together with the energy futures exchanges, the major providers of energy price assessments are Platts and Argus. These companies publish news, research, commentary, market data and analysis and several hundred price assessments daily that are widely used as benchmarks in the physical futures markets and for OTC financial hedging. Their products and services include real-time news and price information, end-of-day market data, newsletters and reports.

      A market-appropriate methodology is used to assess prices in the various markets covered. This methodology is generally produced in consultation with a range of market participants. To assess the price of a certain oil product, it first needs to be properly identified. Without going too much into the specifics of the methodologies used by the price providers, three elements are generally used in oil product classification:

      Product type. For example, fuel oil, diesel, gasoil and jet fuel.

      Sulphur content. For example, fuel oil 3.5%, diesel 10 parts per million (ppm), gasoil 0.1%.

      Delivery information. That is, the geographic point at which the title to goods transfers from the seller to the buyer. This is generally either free on board (FOB), where the buyer assumes the risk of loss and any further freight and handling charges at the crude oil loading facility or refinery terminal or cost insurance and freight (CIF), where the quoted price includes the cost of the goods, insurance and freight charges for a crude or oil product terminal in a specific region. For example, Fuel Oil 3.5% FOB Mediterranean (MED), Diesel 10 ppm CIF North West Europe (NWE) and Jet Fuel Singapore (Sing).

      As a final note, while at the time of printing the product references are deemed to be correct and a good reflection of the various products used in risk management in the various trading regions, it is important to remember that this is a slow but constantly changing market. Occasionally regulations on chemical additives for some of the oil products may change, thus forcing the creation of a new specification. In addition, there is constant pressure to phase out polluting products (like sulphur) in favour of products with a lower impact on the environment.

      Please also note that the swap, forward and option premium levels in the hedging strategy examples presented in the next paragraphs are for illustration purpose only and do not reflect actual market trading levels.

      1.2.2 Aviation: Risk Profile and Hedging Strategies

      1.2.2.1 Introduction: The Aviation Industry

      The term aviation industry encompasses both civil and military aviation. Civil aviation is further divided into general aviation (i.e., everything that is not a military flight, such as scheduled civil and cargo flights) and scheduled air transport. To analyse risk management activity, we focus on scheduled air transport companies, namely:

      Large regional airlines.

      Medium and large international airlines.

      It is worth noting that one occasionally encounters hedging activity from cargo airlines and national military air forces.

      The aviation industry is a major consumer of oil products in the form of jet fuel (or aviation fuel), a product of the family of middle distillates. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA, Economic Briefing, December 2012), following the increase in energy prices of 2007, jet fuel is now the largest expense for airlines, accounting for roughly a third of the industry's total variable cost base (up from 28% in 2007 and 14% in 2003), followed by labour costs (including pensions).

      While fuel makes up a significant portion of an airline's total costs, efficiency among different carriers can vary widely:

      Short-haul airlines typically get lower fuel efficiency because takeoffs and landings consume high amounts of jet fuel.

      Low-cost airlines generally have more modern and hence more fuel-efficient fleets.

      Low-cost airlines tend to have a lower cost base compared with national carriers; hence, fuel costs often represent a higher percentage of the overall cost.

      Large airlines are among the most sophisticated players in corporate oil risk management, with dedicated teams actively trading the swap and option markets for crude oil, gasoil and jet fuel for maturities from six months to five years forward.

      1.2.2.2 Jet Fuel and the Jet Engine

      Aviation fuel is a specialized type of petroleum-based fuel used to power aircraft. It is generally of higher quality than fuels used in less critical applications, such as heating and road transport, and often contains additives to reduce the risk of icing and explosion due to high temperatures, among other properties. The most commonly used jet fuel types are Jet A and Jet A-1, but other kinds of jet fuels are available (JP-8, JP-5, etc.) for military use, with higher specifications (such as a lower freezing point or higher flash point).

      Another type of fuel, aviation gasoline (avgas), is generally used in the high-compression sparkplug ignition piston engines of small private propeller airplanes and helicopters. It is sold in much lower volumes but to many more individual aircraft, whereas jet fuel is sold in high volumes to large aircraft operated typically by airlines, the military and large corporations. For the purposes of this chapter, the focus of the analysis is on references that are useful for scheduled air transport only: jet fuel, gasoil and crude oil.

      Although modern aircraft engines contain some of the most sophisticated engineering technology in everyday use, their basic principles are quite simple and have changed little since jet engines came into use at the end of World War II. In its simplest form, the jet engine is a tube into which air is sucked before being compressed, mixed with fuel and burnt. Combustion causes the fuel–air mixture to expand and accelerate towards the rear of the engine. This high-speed exhaust generates the thrust to push the engine forward.

      1.2.2.3 Product Specifications

      Europe, Middle East and Africa Regions

      The jet fuel references generally used by European-based airlines for risk management purposes are published by Platts, as follows:

      Jet Kero CIF NWE Cargoes (in US$ per metric tonne (USD/MT)). Platts considers the prices of cargoes delivered into Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp (ARA), the UK and northern France for the assessment.

      Jet Cargoes FOB NWE (USD/MT). Platts considers transactions from ARA, Ghent and Flushing. Any transactions at other loading ports in NWE are typically normalized on a freight differential basis back to Rotterdam.

      Jet Barges FOB ARA (USD/MT). Platts considers as transactions basis FOB Rotterdam. Any transactions occurring at other loading ports in NWE are typically normalized on a freight differential basis back to Rotterdam. Platts considers bids and offers from Rotterdam, Antwerp, Amsterdam, Ghent and Flushing.

      Jet Fuel FOB MED (USD/MT). Platts derives this quote from the Jet Kero CIF NWE Cargoes quote adjusted for the cost of transportation from NWE into the Mediterranean region (Augusta, Italy).

      Jet fuel is not the only price reference used by European airlines when hedging price risk. The market for financial OTC products for jet fuel has limited liquidity in terms of maximum volume and maximum tenor executable. Hence, airlines often use crude oil and oil product references whenever the volume to be hedged is too large or the tenor is too long to be accommodated within the liquidity of jet fuel references. The main alternative references used by European airlines are as follows:

      ICE Brent (in US$ per barrel (USD/bbl)), based on the daily settlement price of the ICE Brent futures contract.

      ICE gasoil (USD/MT), based on the daily settlement price of the ICE gasoil futures contract.

      NYMEX WTI (USD/bbl), based on the daily settlement price of the NYMEX WTI futures contract.

      Jet differential (USD/MT) = jet fuel – ICE gasoil.

      Jet crack (USD/bbl) = jet fuel/7.45 (conversion factor MT to bbl) – ICE Brent.

      ICE gasoil crack (USD/bbl) = ICE gasoil/7.45 (conversion factor MT to bbl) – ICE Brent.

      Asian Region

      The references generally used by Asian airlines for risk management purposes are published by Platts:

      Jet Kerosene FOB Cargoes Singapore ($/bbl). The Singapore physical assessment reflects transactions, bids and offers of a minimum of 100,000 bbl and a maximum of 250,000 bbl, and loading within 15–30 days from the date of publication.

      Asian airlines also use other crude oil and oil product references whenever the volume is too large or the tenor is too long to be accommodated within the liquidity of jet fuel references. The main alternative references used by Asian-based airlines are as follows:

      NYMEX WTI (USD/bbl), based on the daily settlement price of the NYMEX WTI futures contract.

      ICE Brent (USD/bbl), based on the daily settlement price of the ICE Brent futures contract.

      Singapore Gasoil Reg 0.5% Sulphur (USD/bbl).

      Americas Region

      The references generally used by airlines in the Americas region for risk management purposes are published by Platts and include:

      US Gulf Coast Jet Kerosene 54 Waterborne (in USD cents per gallon (USDc/gal)).

      Airlines also use other crude oil and oil product references whenever the volume is too large or the tenor is too long to be accommodated within the liquidity of jet fuel references. The main alternative references used by Americas-based airlines are as follows:

      NYMEX Heating Oil (HO) (USD/bbl), also known as #2 contract, based on the daily settlement price of the NYMEX heating oil futures contract.

      NYMEX WTI (USD/bbl), based on the daily settlement price of the NYMEX WTI futures contract.

      1.2.2.4 Risk Management Strategies for the Aviation Industry

      The airlines sector has no such thing as a generic hedging strategy: the approach to what and when to cover exposure to jet fuel prices varies widely across the various players and is based on many factors, including local accounting regulations, the size of the airline, the presence of an approved hedging programme, tolerance and understanding of basis risk at the CFO and board levels, oil market dynamics, what the competition is doing and fuel surcharge policies.

      Important elements affecting an airline's risk management behaviour are its credit standing and the contractual arrangements put in place with hedging counterparts:

      Credit considerations. Large international airlines generally obtain larger and longer credit lines from banking counterparts. Hence, they are able to execute more refined hedging strategies compared with those that can be executed by smaller airlines with access to smaller and shorter credit lines. Some large airlines are also actively using futures and OTC cleared platforms.

      Contractual considerations. Large international airlines have the resources to negotiate master ISDA agreements (and an occasional CSA, although this is not very common in the airline industry). Smaller airlines do not have the internal legal resources and are, in general, more resistant to enter into ISDAs and tend to rely on single trade (long-form) confirmations. The presence of an ISDA master agreement generally leads to obtaining better credit terms with trading counterparts.

      Based on observations of the behaviour of market participants, some generic conclusions on risk management behaviour can be drawn.

      Small to medium airlines (e.g., with a total consumption of less than 500,000 MT of jet fuel per year) tend to implement and execute risk management strategies with the following characteristics:

      Involving short to medium maturities (e.g., less than three years), generally covering no more than three seasons ahead (winter season is from October to March and summer season is from April to September).

      Mainly using swaps or plain vanilla options.

      Limited exposure to basis risk between jet fuel and gasoil or jet fuel and crude oil.

      Medium to large airlines (with jet fuel consumption of 500,000 MT per year and above) generally have a dedicated team for the structuring, implementation and execution of hedging programmes and their strategies have the following characteristics:

      Involving short to long maturities (up to seven years), depending on what product is used (e.g., short maturities for jet fuel quotes, long maturities for crude oil quotes).

      A hedging schedule, approved at the board level and an integral part of the financial strategy communicated to shareholders, with typical hedging ratios of

      up to 75% of forecasted consumed volumes one year ahead

      up to 50% of forecasted consumed volumes two years ahead

      up to 35% of forecasted consumed volumes three years ahead

      up to 25% of forecasted consumed volumes four years ahead and beyond.

      Using a combination of swaps, plain vanilla options and exotic structures.

      Exposure and active management of basis risk.

      On a regional basis, European and American airlines tend to use exotic structures less than Asian airlines.

      Common risk management structures used by airlines are discussed next.

      Jet Fuel Swaps: Simple and Straightforward

      Situation. An airline, let it be called DreamAir, has a strategic hedging programme in place with a provision that at any time at least 55% of the forecasted jet fuel consumption over the next 12 months needs to be at a fixed price. DreamAir's forecasted consumption over the next 12 months is 350,000 MT.

      Strategy. DreamAir will enter over time into several swap transactions, for a total volume of 350,000 × 55% = 192,500 MT for a tenor of 12 months. Every month (or as often as stated by the hedging policy), DreamAir will adjust the hedged volumes to take into consideration expired periods and changes in fuel consumption forecasts.

      Pros. Swap transactions are the basic building block of any risk management structure. They are generally the simplest and most liquid tools available for hedging purposes. Hence, they are well understood and accepted by customer boards and auditors. Pricing is easy and relatively transparent (depending on the location of the Platts quote).

      Cons. The beauty of the swap is also its main limitation. The customer is locked into a fixed price level. Hence, if the jet fuel price moves in favour of the customer (e.g., the jet fuel price goes down in the future for an airline), DreamAir will eventually be paying for jet fuel at a fixed level higher than the price paid by its competitors that did not hedge (or hedged less) with swaps. Volumes are also fixed and so if the forecasted consumption changes (e.g., as a result of expected reduced demand for air travel due to economic recession), then DreamAir can find itself with a hedging ratio higher than that which would have been desired.

      Example. Figure 1.3 represents a situation where DreamAir has entered into a swap on jet fuel for 12 months forward at 525$/MT (straight line). If we assume that no other hedges are put in place until the expiry of this hedge, the net result of this hedging strategy is as follows.

      DreamAir is effectively paying its jet fuel consumption at 525$/MT during the 12-month period, since (assuming the price of jet fuel moves as described by the dashed line):

      In months 1 to 3 and 10 to 12 DreamAir pays its physical supplier of jet fuel a price below 525$/MT but also pays to the hedging bank the difference between 525$/MT and the market price.

      In months 4 to 9 DreamAir pays its physical supplier of jet fuel a price above 525$/MT but also receives from the hedging bank the difference between the market price and 525$/MT.

      FIGURE 1.3 Jet fuel swap

      Gasoil and Jet Fuel Differential: Optimizing Relative Value

      Situation. DreamAir now wants to protect additional volumes of jet fuel but, while the CFO is concerned about the price trend for oil products, there are worries about changes in the relative value of jet fuel against that of other oil products due to the increased refinery capacity from the opening of new refineries in India and China. The CFO wants to protect DreamAir against a general increase in the oil complex but also has a view that jet fuel may be weaker in the future compared with other oil products.

      Strategy. DreamAir initially enters into a swap transaction on ICE gasoil for a tenor of 12 months. After this initial transaction (which leaves DreamAir exposed to the ICE gasoil differential with Jet), DreamAir continues to monitor the differential between jet fuel and gasoil for that hedged period. If the CFO is correct and this forward differential is reducing over time (as a result of the increased volumes of jet fuel coming onto the physical markets from the new refineries in India and China), DreamAir will enter, at a later stage, into a second transaction buying the swap differential (jet swap differential = jet fuel swap – ICE gasoil swap) between jet fuel and ICE gasoil, effectively transforming the initial ICE gasoil hedge into a jet fuel hedge for the same period:

      numbered Display Equation

      Pros. DreamAir can take advantage of expected developments on the jet fuel physical markets (e.g., expected increases in jet fuel production from new or upgraded refineries) or from reductions in demand (e.g., reductions in air traffic linked to events such as the economic crisis, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003 and volcanic ash closing airspaces in 2010). As a result of this two-stage strategy, DreamAir may be able to lock in the price of jet fuel at a cheaper relative price compared with buying jet fuel directly in stage one.

      Cons. If the expected market events do not materialize and jet fuel does not become cheaper than gasoil, DreamAir will end up locking the price of jet fuel at a level that is relatively more expensive than what would have been obtained by buying a jet fuel swap directly in stage one.

      Payoff analysis

      Swap market situation on 1 June 2014:

      For the period January 2015 to December 2015 DreamAir buys gasoil swaps at 650$/MT, taking the view that the jet fuel differential (currently at 750 – 650 = 100$/MT) will come down in the next three months.

      Swap market situation on 15 September 2014:

      The jet fuel market differential has moved as expected, the energy complex has moved up, but jet fuel is now relatively cheaper compared with gasoil. DreamAir can now complete its hedging transaction as follows:

      DreamAir sells the January 2015 to December 2015 gasoil swap at 750$/MT, realizing a gain of 100$/MT.

      DreamAir buys the January 2015 to December 2015 jet fuel swap at 800$/MT, realizing an overall gain of 50$/MT (100$/MT of gain on the gasoil transaction – 50$/MT loss on the increased cost of jet fuel).

      ICE Brent and Gasoil Crack: Optimizing Relative Value

      Situation. DreamAir needs to put in place a hedging programme for a large volume of jet fuel, but in order to minimize liquidity costs, it decides to initially put a hedging position using either ICE Brent or ICE gasoil. The ICE gasoil positions can then be rolled into jet fuel by using the jet differential strategy described in the previous section.

      Strategy. DreamAir's CFO believes that ICE gasoil is relatively too expensive compared with ICE Brent. DreamAir initially enters into a swap transaction on ICE Brent for a tenor of 18 months. After this initial transaction, it continues to monitor the relative value between ICE Brent and ICE gasoil, called the ‘crack’ and expressed as the differential between gasoil (quoted in $/MT but converted to $/bbl using a fixed volume conversion factor of 7.45) and Brent (quoted in $/bbl):

      numbered Display Equation

      If the CFO's view of the oil markets is correct and this crack reduces over time, DreamAir will enter into further transactions, buying the ICE gasoil crack and effectively transforming the initial ICE Brent hedge into an ICE gasoil hedge for the same hedging period.

      Pros. DreamAir can take advantage of expected positive developments in the crude and middle distillate markets. As a result of this strategy, DreamAir has built up a position in ICE gasoil at a better level than they would have obtained if they had locked an ICE gasoil swap at the beginning of the hedging programme.

      Cons. If the ICE gasoil crack increases over time, DreamAir will end up locking the price of the ICE gasoil swap at a more expensive level than they would have obtained by buying a ICE gasoil swap directly in stage one.

      Payoff analysis

      Swap market situation on 1 June 2014:

      DreamAir buys the January 2015 to June 2016 ICE Brent swap at $80/bbl and takes the view that ICE gasoil crack (currently at 710/7.45 – 80 = $15.3/bbl) will come down in the coming months.

      Swap market situation on 15 November 2014:

      The gasoil and Brent markets have moved as expected and the energy complex has moved up, but gasoil is now relatively cheaper than Brent. DreamAir can now complete its hedging transaction as follows:

      DreamAir buys the January 2015 to June 2016 ICE gasoil crack swap at 13.30$/bbl.

      The gasoil crack swap added to the existing ICE Brent swap creates an actual position on ICE gasoil at a level of 80$/bbl (original ICE Brent swap) + 13.3$/bbl (new ICE gasoil crack swap) = 93.3$/bbl. Using a conversion factor of 7.45, this is equivalent to an ICE gasoil swap at 695$/MT – hence, 15$/MT better than if DreamAir had closed the ICE gasoil swap at the original level on 1/6/2014.

      ICE Brent Three Ways – When There are Credit Line Constraints

      Situation. DreamAir wants to put in place a two-year hedge to protect against an increase in oil prices (see Figure 1.4). To minimize liquidity and transaction costs, DreamAir chooses to execute the trade using ICE Brent and, in selecting the structure, needs to keep in mind two constraints:

      Limited budget for paying premiums for options.

      Limited credit lines available from counterparty banks.

      FIGURE 1.4 ICE Brent three ways

      Strategy. To successfully put in place the required protection against the potential increase of ICE Brent prices and to satisfy the constraints above, DreamAir will have to do the following:

      Buy a call option on ICE Brent (e.g., at a strike of 120$/bbl for a premium of 3.5$/bbl).

      The call option provides protection for price increases above $120/bbl.

      Sell a put option on ICE Brent (e.g., at a strike of 70$/bbl for a premium of 1.5$/bbl).

      The put option partially finances the cost of the call option.

      Buy a put option on ICE Brent (e.g., at a strike of 50$/bbl for a premium of 0.5$/bbl).

      The second put option locks the maximum amount DreamAir will ever have to pay in case the first put option is exercised. This reduces DreamAir's credit risk since the maximum exposure (e.g., the maximum amount DreamAir can be asked to pay to the hedge provider under this strategy) is now capped at 70 – 50 = 20$/bbl × number of hedged barrels.

      Pros. The overall cost of the structure is 3.5 – 1.5 + 0.5 = $2.5/bbl, cheaper than just buying the call option at 120$/bbl, and provides the same upside oil price protection. In case of an extreme drop in oil prices, DreamAir is locked by the first put option only up to the strike of the second put option (partial downside price reparticipation). The credit line consumption from this structure is lower than that which would have originated from a simple collar (e.g., call at 120$ with put at 70$) since the maximum payout of the 70$ put is capped at 20$/bbl.

      Cons. The structure is more expensive than a simple collar equivalent, which would have cost 3.5 – 1.5 = 2$/bbl.

      ICE Brent Knock-Out Swaps: Cheaper (and Riskier)

      Situation. DreamAir wants to enter into a 24-month swap on ICE Brent but the current swap market is deemed too high (see Figure 1.5).

      FIGURE 1.5 ICE Brent knock-out swap

      Strategy. DreamAir needs to sell some of the price upside to finance a better swap level. This can be done by entering into a knock-out swap and whenever the monthly settlement is above a certain strike level, the knock-out level (KOL), the swap settlement will be suspended for that specific month.

      Pros. In exchange for giving up price protection above the KOL, DreamAir is able to enter into a swap level better than the one that would have been obtained using a normal swap structure.

      Cons. DreamAir loses the whole swap protection whenever the monthly ICE Brent settles above the KOL.

      1.2.3 Shipping: Risk Profile and Hedging Strategies

      1.2.3.1 Introduction: The Shipping Industry

      The shipping industry encompasses a vast universe that can broadly be classified as follows:

      Transport of people – ferries, cruise ships.

      International transport of goods – bulk carriers, tankers and container ships.

      Service ships – dredgers and tugboats.

      Local transport of goods – barges and coasters.

      Military ships.

      The use of risk management tools is not confined to particular areas of the shipping industry, although the majority of activity comes from shipping companies active in the international transportation of goods. The cost of the ship's fuel (commonly referred to as bunker fuel in the industry) is anywhere between 25% and 50% of an average ocean-going vessel's operating costs (e.g., not including chartering costs).

      The costs of operating a vessel incurred during a charter primarily consist of the following:

      Fuel.

      Crew's wages and associated costs.

      Insurance premiums.

      Lubricants, spare parts, repair and maintenance costs.

      Port charges.

      To provide risk management services to the shipping sector, it is important to understand that the ship owner is not necessarily the one paying the fuel bill. There are four basic contractual agreements used in the shipping industry:

      A voyage charter is the hiring of a vessel and crew for a voyage between a load port and a discharge port. The charterer pays the vessel owner on a per ton or lump sum basis. The owner pays the port costs (excluding stevedoring), fuel costs and crew costs.

      A time charter is the hiring of a vessel for a specific period of time. The owner still manages the vessel but the charterer selects the ports and directs where the vessel goes. The charterer pays for all the fuel that the vessel consumes, in addition to port charges and a daily hire to the vessel owner.

      A bareboat charter is an arrangement for the generally long-term hiring of a vessel whereby no administration or technical maintenance is included as part of the agreement. The charterer pays for all operating expenses, voyage expenses, port expenses and hull insurance.

      A demise charter shifts the control and possession of the vessel. The charterer takes full control of the vessel along with any of its legal and financial responsibilities.

      A ship's engine room typically contains several engines for different purposes. The main engines, or propulsion engines, are used to turn the ship's propeller and move the ship through the water. They typically burn heavy fuel oil or diesel and can sometimes switch between the two. There are many propulsion arrangements for motor vessels, some including multiple engines, propellers and gearboxes.

      The propulsion technology most used on modern ships is based on the ‘diesel cycle reciprocating’ engine. The rotating crankshaft can power the propeller directly for slow-speed engines (<450 rpm), via a gearbox for medium- and high-speed engines or via an alternator and electric motor in diesel–electric vessels. The reciprocating marine diesel engine first came into use in 1903, quickly displacing the less efficient steam turbine technology.

      The majority of modern ships use oil distillate products to power ship engines. The greater part of the world's commercial fleet (wet and dry cargoes, container ships, some cruise ships and ferries) uses fuel oil as fuel, while the rest uses gasoil as the main fuel (mostly high-speed ferries), natural gas (liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers) or nuclear-powered steam engines (mostly military ships). Bunker consumption represents a little more than 50% of the world's total fuel oil production, roughly equivalent to 4 million barrels per day of the roughly 7 million barrels of fuel oil produced daily (as of 2010). Because bunker fuel contains a large percentage of sulphur (between 1% and 5%) it is, for environmental legislation reasons, typically used only in ocean-going ships' primary or main engines once in international waters.

      Bunker fuel is technically any type of fuel oil used aboard ships. It gets its name from the containers on ships and in ports in which it is stored, which used to be coal bunkers in the days of steam engines but are now bunker fuel tanks. Bunker fuel in the shipping industry can also be referred to by other names:

      Heavy oil.

      #6 oil.

      Resid (as in residual oil product).

      Bunker C.

      Blended fuel oil.

      Furnace oil and other locally used names.

      The International Standards Organization (ISO) has issued marine fuels standards (ISO 8217) and introduced some uniformity to the international marine fuel markets. Bunker fuel has the following characteristics:

      Its colour is always black, dark brown or at least very dark. This colour arises from the asphaltenes in the crude oil.

      Bunker is generally viscous, especially when first produced at the refinery. Certain residuals are actually solid at ambient temperatures.

      The following are the two main factors identifying fuel oil.

      Sulphur content. The most commonly traded marine fuels have a sulphur content of 1% (low-sulphur fuel oil, or LSFO) and 3.5% (high-sulphur fuel oil, or HSFO). The higher the sulphur content, the cheaper the fuel oil. The introduction of more stringent environmental regulations by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been progressively reducing the sulphur content in the bunker by issuing Marine Pollution (MARPOL) regulations, with the following limits being phased in:

      Reduction of the maximum sulphur content in the bunker used by members of the IMO to 3.5% by 2012 and to 0.5% by 2015.

      Creation of sulphur emission control areas (SECAs) where the maximum sulphur content in the bunker cannot be higher than 1% (March 2010), dropping to 0.1% by 2015. Vessels entering a SECA will have to switch to a bunker of lower sulphur quality (e.g., have a separate bunker for LSFO) or blend the bunker fuel sulphur levels down to under the SECA sulphur limits before entering the area. As of June 2010, the SECAs are the Baltic Sea, the UNITED KINGDOM North Sea and the California coast.

      Viscosity (measured in centistokes, or cst). Fuel oils of 180 cst and 380 cst are the most commonly traded. The higher the value in centistokes, the higher the viscosity. A higher viscosity means cheaper fuel oil, because it makes the fuel more difficult for engines to burn.

      The most commonly used marine fuels are colloquially referred to as intermediate fuel oils (IFOs). The reason they are called intermediate is that they can contain up to 7% middle distillates, used as ‘cutter stock’ to lower the viscosity of heavy fuel oil. Generally, IFOs are named after their viscosity at 50°C (viscosity is temperature dependent, such that the higher the temperature, the lower the viscosity), which is the normal handling temperature for marine fuels to reduce viscosity and allow for the pumping of the fuel into fuel tanks and engine rooms. The most commonly used IFOs are called IFO 180 cst and IFO 380 cst.

      The pricing of fuel oil can be referenced to three different prices:

      According to Bunkerwire, which refers to pricing in specific ports where fuel oil of different grades and qualities are mixed together. The Bunkerwire price is the equivalent of a retail price, paid by the shipping companies for filling up.

      Cargo prices are a wholesale price for deliveries of 200,000 barrels or more.

      Barge prices are a wholesale price for deliveries of up to 50,000 barrels. Barges generally go for a premium compared with cargoes, since they involve smaller volumes and can deliver to more destinations.

      Fuel oil is also used for power generation. Hence, in certain locations, it is important to consider the effect of the activity of utilities over the price of a bunker. For example:

      Whenever the price of natural gas becomes too expensive compared with the price of fuel oil, then utilities may consider increasing the use of fuel oil to generate electricity. The increased fuel oil demand results in increased bunker prices for shippers.

      If the prices of emission certificates in Europe drop, then utilities have an incentive to use more fuel oil for power generation (fuel oil is more polluting than natural gas), hence affecting the cost of bunkers for shippers.

      The shipping industry is also a consumer of diesel (marine diesel), used in the auxiliary engines of large ships. It is used when a vessel is close to shore (diesel is less polluting than fuel oil) or for manoeuvring in a harbour. Auxiliary engines also generate electricity for a ship while in port.

      1.2.3.2 Product Specifications

      Europe, Middle East and Africa Regions

      The main fuel oil references generally used by shipping companies for risk management purposes are published by Platts:

      Fuel Oil 3.5% Barges (Platts considers parcels of 2000 to 5000 MT FOB in Rotterdam), in USD/MT.

      Fuel Oil 3.5% Cargoes CIF NWE (Platts considers parcels of 25,000 MT delivered CIF NWE basis Rotterdam), in USD/MT.

      Fuel Oil 3.5% Cargoes FOB MED (Platts considers parcels of 25,000–30,000 MT delivered FOB basis Italy), in USD/MT.

      Quality. Platts generally considers fuel oil with a 3–4% sulphur content and a viscosity of around 380 cst.

      For risk management transactions, shipping companies also use crude oil whenever the volume is too large or the tenor is too long to be accommodated within the liquidity of fuel oil references. The main alternative references used by European-based shipping companies are as follows:

      ICE Brent (USD/bbl), based on the daily settlement price of the ICE Brent futures contract.

      Fuel oil crack (USD/bbl) = fuel oil × conversion factor (MT to bbl) – ICE Brent, generally a negative number since fuel oil trades at a discount to crude.

      Asian Region

      The main references generally used by shipping companies for risk management purposes are published by Platts:

      Singapore 180 cst, in USD/MT.

      Singapore 380 cst, in USD/MT.

      Quality. Platts generally considers fuel oil with a sulphur content of up to 5%.

      Shipping companies also use other crude oil and oil product references whenever the volume is too large or the tenor is too long to be accommodated within the liquidity of fuel oil references. The main alternative reference used by Asian-based shipping companies is:

      ICE Brent in USD/bbl, based on the daily settlement price of the ICE Brent futures contract.

      Americas Region

      The main references generally used by shipping companies for risk management purposes are published by Platts:

      Fuel Oil 1% US New York Harbour Cargoes (NYHC), in USD/bbl.

      Shipping companies also use other crude oil and oil product references whenever the volume is too large or the tenor is too long to be accommodated within the liquidity of the fuel oil references. The main alternative reference used by shipping companies based in the Americas is:

      NYMEX WTI (USD/bbl), based on the daily settlement price of the NYMEX WTI futures contract.

      1.2.3.3 Risk Management Strategies for the Shipping Industry

      European and American shipping companies generally adopt less complex hedging tactics compared with the aviation industry and their structures tend to be mostly plain vanilla and for short to medium tenors. As seen for the aviation industry, there are many variables affecting the implementation of a risk management programme. There are also some shipping-industry-specific elements that should be considered.

      Many shipping companies are privately owned and managed by the founder or the founder's successors. This often makes the decision process cumbersome and sub- optimal when implementing risk management decisions.

      Shipping customers can be divided broadly into owners and charterers, where owners buy ships and rent them on short- or long-term leases to charterers. The fuel costs are borne by the company operating the ship. Hence, owners generally have no exposure to oil prices since this is paid by the charterers operating the ships. Sometimes shipping companies are structured into two divisions, one operating as an owner and the other as a charterer.

      For insurance, tax and liabilities management reasons, shipping companies are often divided into management and operational subsidiaries. This may make the process of opening a credit line for trading purposes difficult due to the perceived weakness of the counterpart from the credit point of view.

      Based on observations of the behaviour of market participants, some generic conclusions on risk management behaviour can be drawn.

      Small to medium shipping companies (e.g., with a yearly consumption of up to 250,000 MT of fuel oil) tend to implement and execute risk management strategies with the following characteristics:

      Short to medium maturities (e.g., less than two years).

      Mainly based on the use of swaps.

      Limited exposure to basis risk.

      Medium to large shipping companies (with a consumption of 250,000 MT and above) generally have a dedicated team for the structuring, implementation and execution of a hedging programme, and their strategies have the following characteristics:

      Short to long maturities (up to five years), depending on the product they use (e.g., short maturities for fuel oil quotes and long maturities for crude oil quotes).

      Use of a combination of swaps, plain vanilla options and exotic structures.

      Active management of basis risk.

      On a regional basis, European and American shipping companies tend to use exotic structures less compared with Asian-based shipping companies.

      Fuel Oil Capped Swaps: A Cheaper Swap

      Situation. A containers shipping company, call it SeaHorse, has a strategic hedging programme in place where one of the provisions is that at any time at least 75% of the forecasted bunker consumption over the next 12 months needs to be at a fixed price at a level not higher than 10% of the budgeted bunker price for the calendar year (see Figure 1.6). SeaHorse's forecasted consumption over the next 12 months is 500,000 MT. The budgeted bunker price for the next calendar year is 325$/MT, and the swap price for bunker (using a 3.5% Fuel Oil FOB Barges reference) for the next calendar year is 375$/MT.

      FIGURE 1.6 Fuel oil capped swap

      Strategy. SeaHorse buys a swap for the next calendar year on a Fuel Oil 3.5% FOB Barges reference for 500,000 × 75%/12 = 31,250 MT per month at $375/MT and at the same time sells a call option for the next calendar year on Fuel Oil 3.5% FOB Barges at 475$/MT for 25$/MT. The premium of the option is deducted from the level of the swap. Hence, SeaHorse has effectively entered into a swap at 350$/MT (capped at 475$/MT). This is within the 325 + 10% = 357.5$/MT limit defined by the hedging policy.

      Pros. SeaHorse has reached its targeted hedging level (as long as the market does not move above the call strike level).

      Cons. As a result of selling the call option, SeaHorse loses the protection of the swap whenever the market settles above the strike level of the call option. It is important to remember that the customer is not completely losing its price protection, since even in the event that the fuel oil market moves above the strike level of the call option, SeaHorse will benefit from a cash flow from the risk management structure equal to the difference between the call option's strike and the swap level.

      Payoff analysis

      Swap and option markets situation on 1 June 2014:

      SeaHorse buys a January 2015 to December 2015 fuel oil 3.5% barges swap at 375$/MT and SeaHorse sells a call option on fuel oil 3.5% barges for the period January 2015 to December 2015 at a strike of 475$/MT for 25$/MT.

      The average fuel oil price during February 2015 is 330$/MT:

      SeaHorse pays 330$/MT to its physical supplier but also has to pay 45$/MT from the swap and receives +$25$/MT from the option's premium. The actual cost of fuel for SeaHorse is then 330 + 45 – 25 = 350$/MT.

      The average fuel oil price during May 2015 is 405$/MT:

      SeaHorse pays 405$/MT to its physical supplier but receives +30$/MT from the swap and +25$/MT from the option's premium. The actual cost of fuel for SeaHorse is 405 – 30 – 25 = 350$/MT.

      The average fuel oil price during August 2011 is $495/MT:

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