Climate Change May Mean the End of the United States

I’ll be the first to say I hope my headline is wrong. But let’s explore the facts and then do a thought experiment.

As California grapples with yet another round of devastating wildfires, the Golden State finds itself at a critical juncture. The recent infernos that ravaged Los Angeles County, destroying thousands of homes and displacing over 100,000 residents, are just the latest in a string of climate-fueled disasters that have battered the state in recent years.

The intensifying cycle of wildfires, droughts, and floods has not only taken a toll on Californians' lives and property but has also sent shockwaves through the insurance industry. Major insurers, faced with mounting losses and an increasingly unpredictable risk landscape, have begun a mass exodus from the California market. State Farm, Allstate, and others have either severely limited their coverage or pulled out entirely, leaving millions of homeowners in limbo.

In response, California has been forced to expand its FAIR Plan, the state-run insurer of last resort. However, this stopgap measure is proving increasingly inadequate as climate change amplifies the frequency and severity of natural disasters. The FAIR Plan, originally designed to provide basic fire insurance for those who couldn’t obtain it elsewhere, now finds itself overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the crisis.

Let’s Turn to What Might Happen

As the state struggles to keep up with the spiraling costs of disaster recovery, it’s becoming painfully clear that California’s resources are stretched to the breaking point. The billions of dollars required to rebuild communities, restore infrastructure, and mitigate future risks are simply beyond the state's capacity, especially as it faces other pressing challenges such as housing affordability and water scarcity.

In this dire situation, Californians have turned to the federal government for assistance, as they have done in past crises. However, they now face an unprecedented obstacle: a hostile White House led by President Donald Trump.

During the first Trump presidency, aides had to pressure him to release federal disaster aid to California after the 2018 wildfires after he initially refused. Now it’s Trump’s second term. California still isn’t a fan, and an emboldened Trump doesn’t give California a cent of federal aid. Fueled by his long-standing feud with California’s leadership, particularly Governor Gavin Newsom, Trump defends the decision on social media with inaccuracies about California’s policies and FEMA funding.

This political brinkmanship strikes a nerve with Californians, who are acutely aware of their outsized contributions to federal coffers. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, California consistently pays more in federal taxes than it receives in federal spending. In 2021 alone, the state contributed a staggering $472 billion in federal tax revenue. Now, despite their significant financial input, the federal government has abandoned Californians in their time of need. Californians feel betrayed and exploited.

As frustration mounts, a once-fringe idea regains traction: secession. The "Calexit" movement, which has ebbed and flowed over the years, experiences a strong resurgence. Buoyed by the urgency of crisis and the emotion of injustice, a coalition of grassroots organizations and state legislators successfully places a secession initiative on the ballot.

The proposal would redirect California’s federal tax payments to a state-managed fund, effectively cutting off the flow of money to Washington while retaining resources for disaster response and recovery. Californians design a future where their tax dollars directly benefit their state rather than being held hostage to federal whims.

Retaining a-half-a-trillion dollars a year to rebuild the state is an easy sell. The Golden State is now the Golden Nation.

California is the first domino to fall, as a polarized nation moves to take the economic reality of climate change into its own hands.

Let’s Finish With Some Facts

Climate change is here.

Climate change is a financial issue.

Addressing climate change is an economic imperative for America.