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I think Danielle is very safe for the USA based awards (CC & SAG) but I worry if enough international voters saw The Piano Lesson. I know it’s on Netflix worldwide but the buzz seems kinda muted outside of the US. I think she will make GG too even if it’s more “international” but I don’t know if she will get the BAFTA nomination. Still have her on my Oscar predictions though, I think Netflix is doing a good campaign for her. Saoirse I think it’s only getting a BAFTA nod and maybe Globes.
That’s a fair take. I’m hoping since BAFTA nominated Deadwyler for Till and I know the common take was that nobody watched Till, she has chance there. I feel since The Piano Lesson was more available worldwide due to Netflix, she may have even a greater chance. Plus, they did gave Viola Davis the Best Supporting Actress award for Fences.
That’s a fair take. I’m hoping since BAFTA nominated Deadwyler for Till and I know the common take was that nobody watched Till, she has chance there. I feel since The Piano Lesson was more available worldwide due to Netflix, she may have even a greater chance. Plus, they did gave Viola Davis the Best Supporting Actress award for Fences.
You are right, Piano Lesson is already more seen than Till I think
It helps that color purple had brand recognition, as a previous 10x Oscar nominee. Also that Danielle Brooks herself was a Tony nominee and Grammy winner for The Color Purple already so it was an already-heralded performance. Danielle Brooks was also the one in the Piano Lesson revival but got passed over. “I did not get the “Piano Lesson” movie and I was disheartened because I put in the time onstage and nobody came to me. I didn’t understand why. Hearing a no from people that I truly respect, it made me second-guess myself.”
Also TCP had some minor box office success over Christmas, something TPL won’t have, so the latter is going to struggle for anything with such low audience scores already. I wasn’t aware of the Danielle Brooks situation; as a nominee herself now there might be some energy against watching this as she spoke out about being passed over. Having finally watched The Nepo Lesson it was inferior to the Alfre Woodard version, they didn’t learn from Ma Rainey that too stagey won’t cut it with the Oscars. If you want stagey, go to the theatre, not the cinema. Danielle was the MVP but will struggle to get nominated with such a sleeping pill movie that has already been done better before…
FYC 2023:
The Fernandas - Ainda Estou Aqui (Actress/Supporting)
Connie Nielsen - Gladiator 2 (Supporting)
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist (Actress)
Angelina Jolie, Valeria Golino - Maria (Actress/Supporting)
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door (Supporting)
Emily Watson - Small Things like These (Supporting)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (Actress)musical winners here in the last 60 years:
Fantine, lead winner at oliviers
Effie, lead winner at tonys
Velma, lead winner at tonysAnita, previous Oscar winning role
Also TCP had some minor box office success over Christmas, something TPL won’t have, so the latter is going to struggle for anything with such low audience scores already. I wasn’t aware of the Danielle Brooks situation; as a nominee herself now there might be some energy against watching this as she spoke out about being passed over. Having finally watched The Nepo Lesson it was inferior to the Alfre Woodard version, they didn’t learn from Ma Rainey that too stagey won’t cut it with the Oscars. If you want stagey, go to the theatre, not the cinema. Danielle was the MVP but will struggle to get nominated with such a sleeping pill movie that has already been done better before…
Ma Rainey received five Oscar nominations: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling. They won the latter two, so the Academy was evidently impressed on some level.
Ma Rainey received five Oscar nominations: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling. They won the latter two, so the Academy was evidently impressed on some level.
The majority of this acclaim was heavily due to Boseman campaign. The stagey issues they haven’t learned from and are still prevalent with TPL, so basically Danielle will be lucky to be nominated this year, especially when her company has a bigger film to promote. Yes Ma Rainey won some techs but we all know they wanted acting wins and were paid dust; TPL doesn’t have the same star power for a consistent presence this year
FYC 2023:
The Fernandas - Ainda Estou Aqui (Actress/Supporting)
Connie Nielsen - Gladiator 2 (Supporting)
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist (Actress)
Angelina Jolie, Valeria Golino - Maria (Actress/Supporting)
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door (Supporting)
Emily Watson - Small Things like These (Supporting)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (Actress)Felicity Jones ate and left no crumbs in The Brutalist. What a fantastic perfomance, I am in awe. Her role is way more dramatic than the other contenders and I don’t know if it will help her or not. I am afraid she might miss some of the first precursors giving A24’s weird campaigning and the focus being on her male costars which is sad because she so deserves it. Probably one of my favorite performances of the year so far and I even liked her more than Brody and Pearce (both are amazing btw)
Felicity Jones ate and left no crumbs in The Brutalist. What a fantastic perfomance, I am in awe. Her role is way more dramatic than the other contenders and I don’t know if it will help her or not. I am afraid she might miss some of the first precursors giving A24’s weird campaigning and the focus being on her male costars which is sad because she so deserves it. Probably one of my favorite performances of the year so far and I even liked her more than Brody and Pearce (both are amazing btw)
I haven’t seen it as it’s not showing in UK but originally had her down as lead actress? Does she have enough material for that? If not I always felt she would be top 2 at least I supporting…
FYC 2023:
The Fernandas - Ainda Estou Aqui (Actress/Supporting)
Connie Nielsen - Gladiator 2 (Supporting)
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist (Actress)
Angelina Jolie, Valeria Golino - Maria (Actress/Supporting)
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door (Supporting)
Emily Watson - Small Things like These (Supporting)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (Actress)
The majority of this acclaim was heavily due to Boseman campaign. The stagey issues they haven’t learned from and are still prevalent with TPL, so basically Danielle will be lucky to be nominated this year, especially when her company has a bigger film to promote. Yes Ma Rainey won some techs but we all know they wanted acting wins and were paid dust; TPL doesn’t have the same star power for a consistent presence this year
I am confused then? If the Boseman campaign is what solely got them to win the tech categories, they should have won the acting too right?
Danielle Deadwyler *deserves* a nomination this year for The Piano Lesson. Her getting an Oscar nomination wouldn’t be about luck, it would be a well-earned recognition for having one of the best performances of the year. Period.
I haven’t seen it as it’s not showing in UK but originally had her down as lead actress? Does she have enough material for that? If not I always felt she would be top 2 at least I supporting…
I guess it’s one of the cases she could go lead if she really wanted to but I don’t see it happening. For screen time, I think it’s similar to Lily Gladstone in KOTFM but Lily was all over the movie and Felicity is only in the second half. Also Lily made sense as a lead narratively but I can’t see the same for Felicity since her character pretty much “supports” Brody and is not the main focus.
She is definitely top 2 for me at this time! I feel like she needs at least one nomination from the first televised awards to give her a boost because A24 is not doing anything for her at this moment (the movie being a late December release also doesn’t help). The focus is so much on the two men but I think it’s unfair because she’s just as good (if not better) than them.
I guess it’s one of the cases she could go lead if she really wanted to but I don’t see it happening. For screen time, I think it’s similar to Lily Gladstone in KOTFM but Lily was all over the movie and Felicity is only in the second half. Also Lily made sense as a lead narratively but I can’t see the same for Felicity since her character pretty much “supports” Brody and is not the main focus. She is definitely top 2 for me at this time! I feel like she needs at least one nomination from the first televised awards to give her a boost because A24 is not doing anything for her at this moment (the movie being a late December release also doesn’t help). The focus is so much on the two men but I think it’s unfair because she’s just as good (if not better) than them.
From what you say it seems like supporting fits the bill. I understand your misgivings about them focusing on the men in the campaign, but I think this type of movie similar to Oppenheimer last year (I’m not expecting same box office obviously but similar acclaim), it seems one of the top “period” dramas in contention, and a supporting actress can stand out in a mostly male ensemble. As a previous nominee in a BP contender, surely she will be at least top 2. I’m even more excited to see her performance after your feedback
FYC 2023:
The Fernandas - Ainda Estou Aqui (Actress/Supporting)
Connie Nielsen - Gladiator 2 (Supporting)
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist (Actress)
Angelina Jolie, Valeria Golino - Maria (Actress/Supporting)
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door (Supporting)
Emily Watson - Small Things like These (Supporting)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (Actress)
Yes you do seem confused. I was comparing movies because it’s probably going to be the same story; stage adaptations not being transferred to cinema well enough which is already reflected in the audience score. I agree Danielle gave a good performance, but not having seen all other contenders yet, she doesn’t even have the best performance in the Netflix slate (Saldana and Gomez were better) so I find it funny that people believe she’s getting nominated with another inferior stage adaptation that nobody will remember come nominations period…Danielle is currently in 4th at best…
Since we’re getting a little spicy here, please. Gomez having a better performance than Deadwyler? I have to laugh. We clearly weren’t watching the same movies.
Gomez was a revelation in Emilia Perez, sure, but this cannot be serious. If Gomez gets nominated, it will be because she’s coattailing Saldana and Emilia Perez soars during Oscar season. Saldana needs to happen for Gomez to have a shot at a nomination, and Gomez will also need a bunch of #1 or #2 votes to make it into the top five. Saldana, on the other hand, can absolutely happen without Gomez, but Gomez cannot happen without Saldana. Plus, I won’t be surprise if Saldana sweeps and that takes precedence over Gomez, and Emilia Perez won’t get two Supporting Actress nods.
Since Deadwyler is consistently lauded as the MVP of her film, I’m pretty confident she’ll be safe for most of the major precursors: the Golden Globes, SAG, and CCA. As you can probably tell, I’m a strong supporter of Deadwyler, but I’ll admit that both her BAFTA and Oscar chances are not locked. Unfortunately, The Piano Lesson is weaker (I don’t get it; I loved the film, but that’s beside the point), and she’ll most likely be the lone nominee from her film; it will be an uphill battle for her.
That said, I think Deadwyler will likely secure more #1 and #2 votes compared to Gomez. And like I said, if Gomez does get those #1 or #2 votes, it will be because she’s coattailing her co-star. JMO.
Since we’re getting a little spicy here, please. Gomez having a better performance than Deadwyler? I have to laugh. We clearly weren’t watching the same movies.
Gomez was a revelation in Emilia Perez, sure, but this cannot be serious. If Gomez gets nominated, it will be because she’s coattailing Saldana and Emilia Perez soars during Oscar season. Saldana needs to happen for Gomez to have a shot at a nomination, and Gomez will also need a bunch of #1 or #2 votes to make it into the top five. Saldana, on the other hand, can absolutely happen without Gomez, but Gomez cannot happen without Saldana. Plus, I won’t be surprise if Saldana sweeps and that takes precedence over Gomez, and Emilia Perez won’t get two Supporting Actress nods.
Since Deadwyler is consistently lauded as the MVP of her film, I’m pretty confident she’ll be safe for most of the major precursors: the Golden Globes, SAG, and CCA. As you can probably tell, I’m a strong supporter of Deadwyler, but I’ll admit that both her BAFTA and Oscar chances are not locked. Unfortunately, The Piano Lesson is weaker (I don’t get it; I loved the film, but that’s beside the point), and she’ll most likely be the lone nominee from her film; it will be an uphill battle for her.
That said, I think Deadwyler will likely secure more #1 and #2 votes compared to Gomez. And like I said, if Gomez does get those #1 or #2 votes, it will be because she’s coattailing her co-star. JMO.
Deadwyler zont secure more number 1 or number 2 votes than she never made it for Till and Gomez is in a best picture contender which was a hit and was widely seen. One thing is not like the other.Grande will take some of Gomez votes because she was great in Wicked and held her own against Erivo.
My top 4 at this point is (in alphabetical order) Deadwyler, Grande, Jones and Saldana. The #5 spot is very open and I can see many things happening. However, I feel like it will go to a veteran actress so it’s between Ellis-Taylor and Rossellini for me. I don’t see Ronan happening for Blitz and I only see Gomez happening if Emilia Perez really overperforms on nominations morning. Some people are saying Qualley can happen but it’s a long shot in my opinion. Maybe Barbaro can be a surprise if ACU gets a strong critical reception
I haven’t seen it as it’s not showing in UK but originally had her down as lead actress? Does she have enough material for that? If not I always felt she would be top 2 at least I supporting…
Watched. Supporting, through and through. No chance for a category change – Brody is the only lead.
It’s been a quiet campaign – but it’s easily a top 3 performance and (you’re right) possibly top 2.
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